The trouble with Corbyn.......

... is that sometimes he is just plain right.

He is on the subject of Bomber Dave's desire to join his mates who are already doing a pretty extensive job of reducing Isis held towns in Syria to heaps of rubble. Like Tone snuggling up, hands thrust into waistband of jeans, to George Bush by joining him in the Iraq misadventure, Dave seems to  be driven by a fatal attraction to the glow of being at the top table with the big boys and the German lady. Being in the thick,- and thick it is,-of the action is his way to keep his place there. That's a dose hubris as dangerous as Tone's.

Enough bombs are already being delivered to Syrian territory daily. Isis dig themselves nice secure tunnels so the brunt of the casualties must fall on the unfortunates who just happen to live there and haven't managed to escape. Wrecking infrastructure,homes, businesses, schools , hospitals just adds to the eventual difficulty and cost of eventually rebuilding each one that is destroyed. The future is delayed with each hit. It had always been thus from World War 2 to the first Bush "Shock and Awe" bombs to hit buildings in Baghdad. There is a case for very limited, highly accurate attacks on Isil's ability to function. Taking out oil trucks is fine. Hitting the vaults containing the dollar bills used to pay the extremists would also be fine as would be other razor sharp targets. It's something the RAF Tornadoes are particularly skilled at but are plenty of other people's aircraft already on the case.

However many bombs are dropped, everyone knows that only ground troops can remove Isil from all the strips of territory they control. Again only small scale surgical attacks by special forces and larger ones by modest sized specialist groups can do the job effectively without further massive and counter productive destruction. And yet there is still talk of it needing tens of thousands of troops and good old fashioned tanks. Dave promises two brigades of 10,000 for this kind of work by 2025. Was there a misprint here? Can't the military professionals reshuffle their antiquated structures and start work on them right away?

Back to Comrade Jeremy. He may generally live in a la la land of student demos and protests past when repressive and even murderous dictators were seen as the rightful owners of the masses but in some things he states the blindingly obvious. This is the danger of the man. Given the right combination of circumstances it could, regardless of all other logic and the mayhem it would cause  enable him to push past opposition and win in 2020. One shudders to think of the consequences.

He has already correctly identified the whole current Middle Eastern fiasco on the western bombing and invasion of Iraq. He is correct. Worse, it was totally unnecessary from a western point of view. Saddam Hussein ran a hard line and, for his opponents unpleasant, secular state but he kept the disparate tribes and interests in formation. The invasion wasn't about his human rights abuses, persecution of the Marsh Arabs, Kurds or anyone else he didn't like but about a Bush led obsession about unfinished business from the first Iraq war (Its invasion of Kuwait) when action was actually justified but the victors betrayed their Iraqi opposition supporters when, with victory a certainty they suddenly pulled back leaving these supporters exposed and to their inevitable grisly fates. The weapons of mass destruction accusation was an over hyped and absurd justification. One day maybe son or grandson of Chilcott may actually say so. For saying it's we who started it Corbyn gets volleys of "You can't say that " from many vested interests in the various establishments and even his own Labour Party. Away from the Westminster and media bubble though, many "ordinary people" say he's spot on.

Yesterday he also questioned whether Britain joining in the Syria bomb fest might make Britain less rather than more safe. Dave responded predictably. But think for a moment. So far despite its inevitable and unalterable vulnerability Britain hasn't  experienced any "outrages" since 7/7. If you were Isil what would you do to show that joining in the bombing makes the country less safe? And if there is a big bang or series of bangs here who will be able to say "I told you so. It was obvious"?  It wouldn't only be the country shown as less safe. Dave's judgement will look seriously flawed and many of the 2020  "ordinary people "voters would also be saying "It was obvious". Corbyn wouldn't have to say anything at all.

  That would be very serious for Dave and for Britain. A Corbyn- led real left wing government would be far more dangerous to the country than any terrorists could ever be.

Summer is over........

What passed for a British summer is over. It was a strange one. No long weeks of sun, lots of dark,cold, rainy,days. It just never really got going. OK we won the Ashes but in a peculiar and somehow unsatisfying way which precluded any thoughts of triumphant open top bus parade followed by cricketers behaving badly at Number 10. With the holidays over and schools back this is the real New Year and the slide into autumn and then winter begins. It's enough to make one shiver,- if not already doing so.

Politics was been a largely desert area since the May General Election with two vanquished leaders , Ed and Nick,doing a runner and Nige just doing a quick nip around the block before returning to reclaim UKIP's crown. Nobody seems to quite know or care what the unfortunate Nick did . Ed, after a couple of shorthaul former man the people sorts of breaks, ultimately got as far as far as Australia having abandoned his party at their hour of greatest need of some continuity and stability. He has grown a beard. Maybe the holidaying Ed is about to disappear on a walkabout in the outback where he might meet his political self doing the same thing.

Meanwhile in the smoldering ruin of the Labour Party someone thought it would be a good idea to throw a bit of excitement into the otherwise near dead Labour leadership contest by drafting veteran left winger Jeremy Corbyn into the pot "Just to widen the debate". It did that and barring a miracle the man will now be the next Leader and take the party off to the far, union led, left. The unions and other outposts of the left had never gone away. Always much more organised than any equivalents on the right, they bided their time through the Blair years , felt a bit more perky under Brown and got ready for a takeoever bid under the Ed. They have now launched their very well planned and effective offensive. The moment looks like being theirs. Labour moderates and modernisers can expect to be tidying their shadow ministerial desks as the remnants and replicas of Militant Tendency  (To most barely distinguishable from the Communist Party but possibly less attractive move in. Mr Corbyn is promising to use every possible Parliamentary means to frustrate the democratically elected Conservative government's attempts to do almost anything. As the cargo cult SNP are determined to behave likewise it could be a rough four and a half years unless the Tory right and oddballs behave themselves, something which seems unlikely. Just when the voters are saying the are pretty sick of party pantomimes and would just like to see some cooperation to get things done the mice look like playing. The nightmare scenario is that the Tories somehow stuff things up so badly that they lose the 2020 General Election and in comes Mr Corbyn by default. It might solve the net migration problem but it would not be good for the longer term health of UK Plc.

On the migration score we have are seeing a flood of migrants head to the Mediterranean. The genuine refugees, mainly  from Syria, have mostly entered Europe via Greece while the generally economic migrants from Africa have made the crossing from Libya.

 The EU's programe to rescue those at sea between the Libyan and italian coasts and land them in Europe rather than back in North Africa has meant that the people smugglers selling and logistical jobs have become much easier. Instead of providing seaworthy boats, all they now have to do is push overloaded rubber dinghys out to sea and then send distress calls, or maybe not even those, knowing that most will be picked up. Some drown. The traffickers don't care. No refunds. This was always going to be the result of a "pull through" rather than "return to origin" policy .Only the naive (notably politicians and NGOs in the refugee business,- for that's what it is)- would think otherwise. Europeans generally are confused. They like to talk liberal and hardly dare appear to be reactionary. They speak therefore in moralising tones and with shaking heads and much tutting, about having to do something for these people "who must be desparate". Much of the media routinely use the phrase "Desperate migrants". Many, especially the Syrians, are genuinely that. Some though are not. There is almost no mention of fact that the potential flow of economic migrants from sub Saharan Africa is almost limitless.  Families tend to be large. That means maybe ten people to follow in the wake of every one who is given leave to stay. So as to keep away from the uncomfortable truth that most of the refugees from sub Saharan Africa and non combat zones such as Bangladesh are economic migrants, the media has in the last few days almost exclusively focused on the eastern Med where most are indeed Syrians. Today's tragic picture of a soldier carrying a young drowned boy is being almost relentlessly used to fuel shouts that Europe's borders must be opened. How many have any idea of where that could lead and what it would mean?

In order to develop a fair and coherant policy Europe first has do decide what it really wants to do and be. The conclusions should not come in the form of diktats by Messrs Junker, Merkels, the beaurocrats of Brussels or any other self appointed person or body. The definition of what needs to be done then flows from that rather than a series of disjointed ad hoc emotionally driven responses. Europe and its constituent nations need to understand the dynamics of  the current shambles so that they can clearly identify what needs to be done long term about huge volumes of migrants now being pushed by warfare, misgovernment  or poverty at home and pulled by the attraction of a new life.  They also need to understand that the issue is far far bigger than the short term one of how to deal with the thousands or tens of thousands already in transit. It's about the potential millions or even tens of millions who could follow .Is Europe happy about and ready for the future massive cultural and social changes and for existing majorities to become minorities and ruled accordingly? These might not smack of the democracy or mainly secular foundations they are used to. If it is happy with or even ready to accept these new realities then it can relax and take in all comers.


 Many would reasonably conclude that Europe's failings have destabalised the Middle East . In Africa particularly it has ever since the 1960s squandered billions on aid projects which have achieved absolutely nothing lasting and this nothing is at the root of much we are seeing. While handing out the funds, often with grossly inadequate  monitoring of how the money is spent and turning a blind eye to poor governance, corruption and even the effective rule of law the western world has behaved with almost total disregard of the man or woman in or on the street. Too often they have been left in abject poverty with no prospects while the big men have grown more opulent and oppressive by the day. If all the money poured into  recipients had been spent on building and maintaining infrastructure, developing and training training expertise there would be no reason for anybody to want to leave. Why is Tanzania for example not a glittering tropical state with wonderful schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure?

The aim of refugee programes should be to improve conditions in the countries of origin so that they are able to return home to rebuild their homes and lives as soon as possible .That point is becoming lost in the current wave of media emotional outpourings.The issues around economic migrants are very different and needs to be separated from those who really are seeking refuge.

Before the refugee "Crisis" Greece had been enjoying daily headlines about "Grexit-Yes or No?" Would they stay in the EU and Eurozone or not? At least until after the new snap election the answer was a sort of "Yes" between gritted teeth, Other than Mr Junker and other drivers of "the Great Project"  nobody anywhere really seemed to believe it. Maybe even they didn't. The opportunity to regain their freedom from the straitjacket of an essentially northern European currency and constant frowns and lectures from Brussels must be very tempting to the Greek voters, whatever the short term pain.

Across the Atlantic they have as usual been squaring up for another of their all too frequent elections. This time it's the big one, the 2016 Presidential in which the incumbent is barred from standing. Incredibly for the world's most powerful nation (Sorry Mr Putin of the bare chest), there is no sign of a battle of the Titans. Hillary Clinton, for long the assumed winner, is losing ground. Where is the next Democrat big hitter? On the other side the very idea that Donald Trump could be a serious contender is difficult for a foreigner to comprehend. Maybe to many Americans too?  Where is the Republicans giant of a personality and obvious front runner? Not another Bush surely?

Happy New Year/Autumn!

Dave hands an easy one to Jeremy.

For far out left Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn, David Cameron's dissolution honours list looks as dissolute and off the planet as it possibly could be.

What was Dave thinking about on his imaginative holidays in Portugal and Cornwall ( Seems it was a "no" again to Far East, Kenya's Great Migration, or even the USA but perhaps they were never considered as not man of the people places)? Even if he'd knocked up this list of cronies and sponsors and hangers on (of all the former main parties) before he went away, surely anyone with political nous would have woken up in the middle of the night sweating that he was just about to fall into a bear/Tory trap of his own making and do a hasty rewrite and cull. Where were his advisors?

The dreary list adds £1.2 m a year to the bill for running the already absurdly large ( in a former life Dave had said he wanted to reduce it) unelected legislative body which is now becoming a blot of Britain's democratic credentials. It looks more and more like an old mates club and less and less a place where some of the nonsenses which get barely a glance in the Commons can be examined in a less political atmosphere.

The 2020 General Election is there for the Conservatives to lose. One of the ways they snatch defeat is to confirm to voters some of Corbyns shouts and dogwhistles about an inward looking,inbred, corrupt and self serving establishment. Even if Corbyn doesn't win the very old Labour crown for sure whoever does will pick up the same theme on this issue. It's just too good for them to miss. Dave's inept, insensitive and appalling list is a step in that direction.

Why does he keep doing this sort of thing? It's probably down to the reality that his life has always been centered in very refined London and Oxfordshire English circles. Genuine encounters with and experiences of the world inhabited by most people have been relatively few. Sensibly he would have very close to him a few "ordinary people" as Labour likes to call them who could steer him away from cliff edges, but he doesn't appear nearly so comfortable with them. His successor will have to be very decisive in putting these images to rest, ideally starting by slashing House of Lords numbers and cleaning up and de-politicising and de-cronyising further appointments from the start. It has to be done before 2020.

MPs go off on hols and Labour ponders a swerve off the road.

They've gone. The first short term of the new majority government Parliament is over. For those who  survived the election it's been quite a year since their last long break. There was the tedious winter with its everlasting preaching and whinging about how awful things were from the power seeking Messrs Miliband, Cooper, Burnham and others, carping from the LibDems who were meant to be part of Government and the dreadful thought that either or both of those tribes could together form a majority government in the May General Election. Fortunately the pollsters got it all hideously wrong and when the likely result flashed up on the outside of the BBC building seconds after 10pm on the big night there was was a palpable sense of relief, not to mention amazement. Within hours some big names were gone. Ed Balls was toast, his defeat confirming that it really was a bad night. For the new bugs, especially the non House trained SNP horde descending from the north the first two months of their parliamentary careers has been a great learning experience. The seven week gap will allow them to come back with the confidence of not now being new.

Since the big night the Labour Party has in disarray and left as a smouldering ruin, mainly one of denial. The Party needed the steadying hand of the leader to settle them down and start working on the future, first of all figuring out that they had simply been trying to flog an out of date product that people no longer wanted to buy even though they weren't exactly in love with the alternative. Instead their former Dear Leader did a runner. He dropped everything in the lap of the hapless Harriet Harman and flitted off to the Med with his Mrs, who could throw all those measurements for new Number 10 curtains in the bin. They had a couple of holidays. OK he was exhausted and beaten but so was his party. Those Labour MPs who survived or freshly joined Parliament had no such luxury .Above all they needed gathering together and leadership to help them recover from the shock of the night. They didn't get it.

The Tories have thoroughly enjoyed this first session as the new majority government. The absence of hand wringing LibDems holding their ankles has been a wonderful feeling. They know that five years is a short time to get things done so have set off at a good pace. The 2010 coalition failed to do that as did Tony Blair in 1997. Blair wasted his first term and threw away his potential legacy because he thought he had all the time in the world.  Early in his second term he was taken over by Iraq and adulation for George Bush. Hubris was in the driving seat and out of the window went all the visions of New Labour party and public sector reform. That was it .Any dreams of being the great reformer were over.

After May 10th Labour needed  to steady themselves, follow their former leader on holiday , dust themselves down and take stock of what had happened. After a summer pause there should have been a thorough review of policy and then decisions on whether they wanted to satisfy the existing small core party and probably never see power again or return to the election winning stance of New Labour. That hasn't happened and it's become a gory process. The leadership cart has been put before the policy horse. There is now a long process involving three essentially left candidates leaning towards the past and one forward looking one who is branded (dirty word)) Tory or ,even worse, Blairite.

Several dynamics are at work here.

First the dark socialist real heart of the core Labour Party is exposed. New Labour was an aberration and never won the hearts and minds of the old lags or the new idealistic protest movement anti austerity etc. young. Both these groups have watched Quantative Easing and, like Mr Corbyn concluded that it proves you can just print more new banknotes and all economic problems are solved,  Many accepted New Labour as a way of gaining power but they never believed in it. They saw it as a means to an end but not one they could ever commit to. And as for the cave dwelling unions.....

Second it would be unwise to welcome Mr Corbyn as leader on the basis that he would keep Labour out of power for a decade or more. If the Conservative Government were to seriously come off the tracks by its policies not working over the next 5 years then Labour could get in by default in 2020 whatever its programme and whoever its leader. Corbyn, although speaking left wing nonsense much of the time, has one big plus over most of the leading current Labour and Conservative politicians. He speaks English rather than other world Politician. That in itself will get quite a stack of votes, as , counter to recent fashion, will be the fact that he's older. Wiser no ,but attractive to a receptive revolutionary audience with his thirsting for nationalisation, love of socialist comrades and causes around the world, and belief in higher taxes on and general emasculation of the better off.

If Mr Corbyn does win it is possible that the Blairites may break away either into a separate David Owen style Democratic Socialist Party or simply join up with the LibDems who would warmly welcome any hand to to bring them back from the dead.

There are many days and nights to go before we know how this contest will play out. Finding out what it means will take longer but we can expect a lot of noise from the left, especially now it has been reinforced in the Commons by the much more eloquent and vociferous cargo cult Scottish Nationalists. 

Greece,- Let nature take its course.

The convolutions going on in Europe over a possible Greek Eurozone exit are something to behold. They display many of the worst features of the zone and the EU straitjackets and the consequences of past misdeeds, distortions of figures and political manipulation. Greece never really qualified to join the Euro in 1981 It was always a fix .That was pretty public knowledge but blind eyes were turned and the situation massaged to even get them on board. On the part of France in particular the measures were proactive rather than passive.

Now the chickens have come home to roost. Build anything, a house, a business, a state on foundations of sand or none at all. Sooner or later it will collapse or cost a fortune in artificial respiration to keep going. Even then it will almost always eventually collapse at a much greater cost than if it had been sorted out in the first place..

 Right now the ever righteous Mr Junker complains of having been betrayed. At the same time he says the door is still open for more negotiations. The only message he is giving is that the Euro club are desperate to avoid Greece dropping the currency or even out of the Union. This isn't because the Euro or EU  love Greece. It's because they are terrified of the loss of face occasioned by the admission that a one size fits and works all northern and southern Europe states alike. It never could and the sensible kept well clear.  The size, economies, activities, national temperements and needs of the member states vary enormously. Their inability under the Euro to do anything with their currencies to even out the effects of diversity out leaves them hamstrung.

Also much feared in monolithic Brussels is the idea that even one defection from the Eurozone might lead other states to question the whole operation of the EU itself. Britain is already doing that although rather cackhandedly by positioning its demands for as being for its own benefit rather than for all the members of the creaking, centralising ,going nowhere, hugely expensive ,self serving and barely democratic institution.

One can understand the Greeks still thinking that Mr Junker and friends will blink first. They usually do if they see their own interests and pedestals threatened.

There should be no further discussions. Ireland and Portugal in particular were forced to swallow the austerity medicine ,took the pain and came out of their criseas well.  They and others would  be rightfully indignant if Greece got of its self made hook. If Greece insists on its course of rejecting economic reforms, aka austerity, and claiming it can get its accounts straight by soaking the rich and penalising business then it should be allowed to do so and let go. Despite all the howls about serious consequences for all, nobody knows what the effects will be. The only way to find out must be to let nature take its course and manage the downsides as they appear. This is by far the most practical and best medium and long term solution and almost certainly the cheapest. It will also highlight the fact that the only people who can get Greece back on the road are the Greeks.

Footnote: The biggest question around a Greek exit from the currency and/or the EU is how much it would turn the country's left wing government to a mischievous Russia and what that would really mean.

The week so far...................

First up has to be yesterdays lovely pictures of Greece's smiling Prime Minister with the European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker's arm extended warmly around his shoulder. What great body language. "We'll sort out something for you my boy" it says. Unlikely to see David Cameron get quite the same sort of warmth but we can live in hope. If keeping Greece in the Eurozone, for which it was never really financially eligible and in the EU is so important, how much more so is it for Mr Junker and friends to keep the UK in the EU? We should never forget that the unlamented Gordon Brown did the country one enormous favour when he rejected Tony Blair's wild enthusiasm for the UK adopting the Euro and thereby becoming welded into this disastrous one size fits Germany straitjacket. At least he saw where that one was coming from.

Talking of the relics of the 1997-2010 Labour dynasty it is no surprise to see that Lord (There's a true socialist title for you,- once they've tasted the good claret) Mandelson was beaten into third place in the election for the Chancellorship of Manchester University. He and his co-loser Sir Mark Elder a locally distinguished musician, will though be heartened by the Times report that Dame Nancy Rothwell, the President and Vice Chancellor has said that "other prestigious roles" are being sought for them. One has to ask why? Is the university not doing perfectly well without them ? Why create new roles just because you've got a couple of nice "terribly influential" celebs hanging about? Are they short of a crust or prestige so need new pedestals ? Even if they were why should Manchester University come to their aid, especially if it costs them any money? It all sounds a bit luvvie. Clearly anybody to do with this circle to have a title anyway and that's another growing British social problem worth a study of its own.

Also looking a bit luvvie is Richmond's golden boy MP Zac Goldsmith's declaration today that he will be running for the Tory nomination for Mayor of London. While current incumbent Boris, complete with an Eton and Oxford background, has a great man of the people touch and above all is seen as fun,  Goldsmith, is different. He is undoubtedly popular in Tory quarters especially the Richmond sort, but is very much the man of the gilded cage and  may struggle to find common ground with swathes of other Londoners. He's not exactly the sort of man you might expect to possibly bump into in the greasy spoon, newsagents ,on the bus or train whereas with Boris, perhaps it's unlikely in reality but you feel you just might and its the impression that counts.

That reminds us that Sir Harold Davies is in the next few weeks,- probably as close to Parliament breaking up for the long hols as possible,- due to reveal his recommendations on new runways for southern England. This is a tough one for an establishment man conscious of what is asked of him. We mean what is really asked of him .The first thing ,- and this bit was utterly clear,- was the absurd demand by the last government three years ago that he should not report before the May 2015 General Election.So began the longest essay in history. Three hours should have been enough, or three weeks in non exam conditions. Everyone knows the best answer for UK Plc is Heathrow and even better for both Heathrow and Gatwick so that a) There really is enough capacity and b) The two airports can slug it out competitively for growth. Everyone also knows that the recommendation will most likely be a fudge and unsatisfactory to everybody. The need for more runway slots is immediate,- or rather at least ten years ago. The report is more likely to talk about ten years hence,- which is about the earliest we could expect actual concrete anyway,- and point towards Gatwick while leaving the options open to review Heathrow again " in the long term" . That's to say to do absolutely nothing about it within the lifetime of most people now on the planet. Although it is a national issue and the UK has a population of 63.8 million and an electorate of 46.1 million the decision could rest on just three inside the M25 west London people the Prime Minister doesn't want to upset and who might cause him grief. Such is sometimes the reality of democracy. Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson and Justine Greening all west London MPs. A nonsense? Of course. It would never have come to this if it hadn't been for Cameron's wobbly knees before the 2010 General Election. Under Lord Adonis as Minister for Transport Heathrow was almost ready to start digging. Cameron thought that the only way to secure West London constituencies was to say no to Heathrow expansion. He was wrong as he would have won the seats anyway without that commitment. Ever since he has been squirming on his self made rack. Now is the time to take command and tell the recalcitrants to get off the runway but when push comes to shove he's not very good at that.

Down in the Med another storm is brewing. Her Majesty's Royal Navy and others are fishing "refugees" out of the water in ever increasing numbers. That's right and fine but instead of landing them back in North Africa they being transported to Italy where nobody is really clear or sure about what should happen next. For the vast majority who are economic migrants rather than escapees from the real Syrian and allied Middle East conflicts the answer should be simple quick flight home , the only place from which applications can be considered. The almost universal underlying belief is that this is unlikely and eventually they will be able to move northwards to the desired goals of  the more welfare generous countries. Once established they would expect to be able to bring in their, often large, families. This is incentivising the traffickers to step up their efforts. They now know that they barely need to equip their boats with engines but just push them off the Libyan coast and the passengers will be taken care of. There is a real possibility of not millions but tens of millions heading north in a short space of time. European heads fail to grasp this and instead talk for ever about "desperate people". They are stuck in idealistic quasi liberal sand refusing to think through the consequences and doing nothing concrete while a real human crisis builds. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has given the advice one might expect. Inevitably he has his human rights critics at home and abroad but his policy of making it absolutely clear that the vast majority of the boat economic migrants will never be able to settle in Australia is working. This is probably the only recipe that will. It might seem tough but it means that nobody setting of on these often hazardous and expensive journeys is under any illusions that their journeys will almost certainly lead right back home after a lot of discomfort along the way. If Europe is prepared to be changed utterly, ,impoverished and overwhelmed by numbers then its present policy is fine. If not, not. The whole thing seems to be way beyond most EU politicians, and hey, its nearly hols time in Brussels too.

That's the week so far. And it's only Tuesday.

UK election dust settles.

The political drama of last Thursday night will go down as a classic. Weeks of "Too close to call" poll verdicts, the dismissal of any chance of either major party having a majority and speculation as to which cobbled together coalition would win the day were suddenly exploded at 10pm when the BBC/ITV exit poll result was announced. Its verdict that the Conservatives would get 316 seats, just ten short of a majority blew Ed Miliband's dreams of leading a government apart. The instant reaction was that such a number was impossible. It just had to be wrong. The pompous Paddy Ashdown promised to eat his hat if it were true. Labour's old spin master Alistair Campbell promised to consume his kilt. To Miliband it must have been a hammer blow beyond belief. His lifetime ambition, the one for which he had elbowed his brother,was blown apart in moments. Politics is a brutal game and this most cruel reverse will take some getting over. Nick Clegg would probably vouch for that too. Even after the first few results Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman was still parroting her pre-ordained script "It's a terrible night for the Tories". The early hours' realisation that 316 seats could drift to the magic 326 overall majority and possibly even higher took a while to sink in, especially on the BBCs forecast which seemed to lag a bit all night.

So where are we now? Miliband, Clegg and Farage whose party though not seat tally had done well all fell upon their swords. Miliband's and Cleggs were genuine but Farage's appears to have been a stage fake. Harriet Harman, now Labour's Acting Leader, still locked into her personal fog, is muttering that the defeat will take some while to understand and conclusions must not be rushed..

Ms Harman can be spared the agonising. The reason is simple. Miliband's Labour were selling a dated 1950s-70s product that people don't want to buy. It's no use implying that the voters got it wrong and will change their minds another time. The old fashioned class warfare themed offerings talking patronisingly about "ordinary people", "working people" excluded and even vilified the aspirational (most people) and the successful. Why do that?  It's a gift to the Conservatives.

Not only Labour need to rethink their product and positioning. The Tories , who they are, how they look and sound and what they appear to stand for are not loved in many quarters. They have a lot to do in the north , where fortunately George Osborne is already on the case, and other poorer areas . There's Scotland too of course.

Right now David Cameron is on the high of a honeymoon and doing the right things (well balanced cabinet) at the right pace (not frantic but swift and determined). Freed of the LibDem handcuffs and concrete blocks around its ankles, his party looks remarkably fresh and like hitting the ground running.

Nationally, outside the celebs and some misguided young who say they feel like emigrating (Please do), there is something of a national sigh of relief. People on zero hours contracts need not fear being out of a job in weeks, business isn't threatened with micro management or in the case of the railways partial renationalisation. Neither Nicola Sturgeon nor Len McClusky will be writing  the government's agenda and Number 10 won't be doing beer and sandwiches. The revitalised Prime Minister, unexpectedly handed this Get Out of Jail Free card, must lift his horizons and spread his circle beyond the previous narrow clique. Unencumbered by the coalition there is lot to achieve and a personal legacy to create. There is not much time. The May 2020 election is in play now.

UK Election,- They're off.

Hopefully our travel weary Conservative and Labour leaders, veterans of countless "Don't meet the people" photo and other opportunities these last six weeks, will be getting a good night's sleep this afternoon.

They will need it if the whole unsatisfactory affair breaks down into "difficult" discussions about coalition and alliances. Expect plenty of acrimony before during and after.

Having inherited a disastrous financial mess from the broke Gordon Brown Labour government which included the socialists now bidding for another shot at doing it again and having got half way to solving it ,David Cameron should this afternoon be well on his way to victory.

But he isn't. The lacklustre campaign which didn't even to mention most of the coalition's many achievements, an unrehabilitated brand image and the the loss of the constituency boundary changes because he wouldn't go along with the LibDems' demands for even minor House of Lords reforms have left the man in the blue corner looking very vulnerable. He is rated by the electorate well ahead of Ed Miliband well ahead of his opponent  as likely being the better Prime Minister and being the more likely to reduce the current account defecit to zero. And yet he still struggles to get the breakthrough that he might expect.

Over in the red corner lie some of the reasons. Ever since the Brown years the well organised socialists have steadily plugged away at the soundbites of the class war. "For the many not the few", "Hard working working people" have been repeated ad infinitum . They have scarcely been  challenged and have taken a deep and toxic deep root. Mr Miliband and colleagues have relentlessly  harped on about "unfairness", portrayed successful people as "fat cats" and without scruple stoked up feelings about even the moderately well off being disadvantaged  exploited.  Everyone is a victim. "Austerity" is blamed for most ills even though the country has so far seen nothing like it.

The Conservatives never seemed to understand what the sound bites were all about so despite having a good story to tell never took the trouble to vigorously counter them. That's why we have the neck and neck race there should never have been.

Tonight many will be watching from behind the couch.

Footnote: Another key unenforced error was to ever agree to a referendum on Scottish independence. The idea should simply have been non negotiable under the Act of Union. Allowing it to happen gave a surge of oxygen to an otherwise fairly moribund issue and fired up the SNP  to keep raising it in the future. Inevitably in the end they will get a "Yes".

Election News: The Spinmasters' Challenge,- and Comeuppance.

A week today we will be heading for the polling booths. Except that in Twiga constituency we are effectivelydisenfranchised thanks to the sitting MP being the Commons Speaker, former Tory and now goodness knows what, John Bercow. By convention the major parties do not contest his seat so we are stuck with Mr Bercow, Nige's UKIP man and a Green. There's choice for you.

Between now and the big day anything could happen. First up is tonight's separate grillings of the three leaders on the institutionally far from neutral BBC. Already it is revealed that the audience numbers and proportions will be skewed to the left but what else did we expect? The third slot is the one to have as it carries the advantage of seeing and being able to respond to the other two. It should go to the incumbent Prime Minister. Will it?

Then there are the remaining days of campaigning. This has not been a good campaign. In fact the worst in recent memory, seemingly fought by competing fourth rather than sixth forms and even then mediawise only by their leaders. These precious days of democracy in action promise to be full of skulduggery, denial, betrayal (thankyou LibDems), last minute representations and misrepresentations,bribes,smears, downright lies and exhortations .That's if there are no nuclear cards up sleeves. Leaders found in or out of their underwear in nightclubs. That sort of thing. Probably unlikely with the main trio but who knows among the three other new era ones?

Including today there technically there are five weekdays when people might be listening and two weekend days when probably most aren't. Quite a challenge for the spin schedulers planning their climaxes. But it's worse than that.

It's a Bank Holiday weekend. From the end of today there will be more thought about the possible, likely or actual state of the M25/4/40/1, Virgin trains etc than about who is the least worst person to vote for. Then there are two days staring out at the rain ,wind or whatever and another back stressing about the state of Britain's transport arteries. Again not much thought about politics, and especially not much positive thought.

Then there is the big one. Some time between now and the election Dave, Ed , Nick and the rest are going to be swept off the headlines by "Royal Baby Arrives" , Royal Baby Supplements, "What name for Royal Baby" , "Royal Baby Named". How does a political Spinmaster cut through that? The only possible coup could be "Royal Baby named Dave/Ed/Nick" but that seems unlikely in the House of Windsor. Especially if it's a girl. In which case double wipeout if she's called Diana.

So what happens?  The visually and aurally drowned electorate who will likely say "Thank goodness for that. Now I can just go and vote for whoever I was going to vote for in the first place".

The Election- Unenforced errors and things.

Just when their man had given Conservative supporters three days of respite from feeling that he was sleepwalking towards defeat by coming out of his corner full of energy and bounce, Cameron  makes an utterly nonsensical unnecessary promise to turn his previous undertaking not to raise rates of income tax, National Insurance Contribution and VAT for the duration of the next Parliament into legislation.Back behind the sofa everyone.n

Why on earth do that? Is he saying that there are now two tiers of election promises,- those you will legislate not to renege on and those that you won't so can?

Why on earth also box yourself in when fixing the economy and getting the annual expenditure budget to break even is the job in hand and the one which the electorate already believes you are the best party to do? It just makes no sense.

Nor does the growing fashion for legislating to restrict the freedom of future governments but that and its constitutional implications is a whole story in itself.

Ed Miliband didn't do a lot better either with his nocturnal visit to Russell Brand's house for an interview. Although Mr Brand's recording studio is in his house, the view of anyone going to a house puts the visitor in the position of being a supplicant. Remember those pictures of Lord King and Sir Colin Marshall going to Richard Branson's house during the curious "Dirty Tricks"allegations? It wrong footed them completely although the case itself was never proven. Then there is the small matter of Mr Brand being seen as way out on the left wing. Ed doesn't have a problem with left wing support. He will get all those votes anyway. It is over on the right where he needs to seek additional votes and where this evening sortie will lose rather than gain any. So why go there,- especially at night which has even more negative PR perceptions? Where was his political and people nous? And where were his advisors?

For David Cameron the problem remains his basic lack of political feel and wordliness. It is not his fault but he has never lived in a world of real people, their hopes and fears and daily concerns. That would be OK if he had around him a wide circle of multi-background advisors or just people to talk to but, preferring the company of long standing school and university friends who he trusts too much,  he hasn't, and he visibly pays the price. He should also forget about  the faux "man of the people" footie stuff. Electors aren't idiots. Being posh isn't a no, no but pretending not to be is.

Ed Miliband is better schooled by Alistair Campbell and others.  During these past few weeks they have done a much better job on their client than Cameron's Lynton Crosby. despite their efforts, Take away the facade and Ed is no more a man of the people than his rival. He has though lived among some of the north London variety in his school days something which is an enormous benefit at times like these. Despite that, Northerners, Scots, Welsh, Northern Irelanders, Cornish, non London southerners and other fringe tribes are probably a bit of a mystery.

The man who has avoided these slips, talks human and can talk easily to anyone is the unfortunate Nick Clegg. Unfortunate? Yes. If he can't find a bigger issue to shout about this final week than free school meals he isn't going to set the campaign alight.

The ladies meanwhile continue to steer a slip-free course and do well, though two of them within limitations. The seemingly unlimited one, Nicola Sturgeon sweeps on in Scotland. Her biggest risk is that she might overcook it and some of the 55% who voted "No" in last September's independence referendum suddenly wake up as to what she is all about and scuttle back to Labour. That's the party whose decades of arrogant neglect of Scottish voters real interests strengthened calls for "independence" in the first place. Over in Wales, Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood is at least now known outside her home province but her task against overwhelming historic support for Labour who have done Wales few favours is almost impossible. Down among the Greens, once past her initial disastrous TV performance, leader Natalie Bennett did well enough in the BBC's 5 way non-debate but hasn't appeared much since. Their current sole MP Caroline Lucas might be a better front for the party but for those who do not want to live in caves, walk to work (if there is any) and live in poverty, whoever is leader doesn't have much of an agenda to sell.

A week today will be the last day of campaigning. That at least is a relief. It could save many TV screens. More before that though...

UK Election,-10 Days to get Serious.

With the interminable campaigns finally about to go into their last week, it's time for the Conservatives to get a grip if they are to finish up at all well.

They have a good story of the last 5 years to to tell.  They are way ahead in perceptions of their ability to run the economy. They are up against the most uncharasmatic and ineffective Leader of the Opposition in living memory .They should be walking towards victory and riding high in the polls. But they aren't.

Why not?

First there is the Leader, David Cameron a man immensely at ease with himself  and his coterie of close friends mainly acquired at school and university. Given a pedestal upon which to stand he is undoubtedly a charming and courteous host, especially on his metro London or Cotswold home turf. Away from those things he does not look not at home at all, either among "ordinary" people in Britain or the non British political communities abroad. He relishes the red carpet stuff and positively glows when with the Angelas, Obamas and other top players, wearing a strange sort of  "Look who I'm with" sort of stifled smug grin. Blair was the same, reaching the peak of hubris when he stood side by side with George Bush, thumbs thrust down his jeans, having just promised him he would do whatever was required in Iraq.

Both major party's campaigns have been dreadful, stage managed "Don't meet the people but look as if you do" affairs. Lecturn based speeches to almost empty, but thanks to the camera's, full looking halls have been the norm. Nurses, teachers, schoolchildren, apprentices, or whoever is the theme of the day have been wheeled out to form backdrops on pain of death to look cheerful and make no inappropriate gestures. It has been a total farce.No knockabout town hall hustings. No questions. No answers. Cameron and Miliband have been swept straight from their lecturns into their Bentleys or battlebuses and driven off at speed. This has allowed the well tutored Miliband to grow into looking like a possible Prime Minister while Cameron, lacking the visible passion and energy, has ever so gently shrunk. Miliband has gone for every media opportunity while Cameron seems to have chillaxed and avoided anything remotely risky.

Despite the voters known dislike for negative campaigns, Cameron has veered off the positive messages about the economy into unnecessary and un-Prime Ministerial personal attacks on both Miliband and Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon. Having orginally stood where he was told by advisor Lynton Crosby on the economy, Cameron has more and more shown his lack of feel for the game by swerving all over the road in trying to respond to every special offer by the other parties. He has inexplicably countered with unnecessary and unaffordable ones of his own. Why after five years of fiscal prudence risk it all by throwing money around in the last four weeks? It makes no sense.

As result right now Conservative voters feel that this election might be slipping away from them. The BBC of course does all it can to move this impression along in all sorts of subtle and less subtle ways but there does seem to be a drift. With just a few more days to go, the Conservative leadership  must  now re-energise the Prime Minister, get him out there shaking some real hands looking like he's really enjoying it rather than reaching for the hand sanitiser and shouting the economic success  theme from the rooftops. No harm in reminding people where he has brought it all from these last five years , what a wreck it was and who caused it but from that baseline he has to break out into the "We are hungry to finish the job"  theme. If he doesn't what follows could be messy, -and involve a lot more chillaxing for him. His colleagues and voters won't thank him for that. He may be able to afford it but they and the country can't.

UK Election .The TV "debate". The winner was.....

Nearly a week on from the BBC 5 sided " debate" between the  opposition contenders, the night is almost forgotten. It was significant though as one more input the voter's decision making.

On the surface it seems to have made not a jot of difference in the polls, so David Cameron may well be congratulating himself on a night better spent elsewhere. Below the surface though he would be mistaken.

Ed Miliband's acceptability to the electorate has been creeping slowly but surely upwards.Carefully tutored, he has been looking more self assured, his suits snappier, and his speaking more passionate.He is looking like a man with a mission and he is one . People's perceptions are shifting from "No way could he be Prime Minister" to "Maybe, just maybe". That is real progress. In such a tight contest every little counts. He can see flashing before him the prospect of leading the most left wing government since the 1940s . His Marxist father would have been proud.

In this debate Miliband stood on the left wing while Nigel Farage stood on the right, a little isolated , rather unloved and rarely listened to by the predominantly left leaning audience. In contrast the Labour leader was able to adopt the relaxed pose of the bull in the field to whom the three ladies of SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens generally addressed their comments in a sort of interview for the position of best coalition partner. The most significant moment of the evening came right at the end after all the talking. First the three ladies went into a strange group hug. Then, one by one they went to shake Miliband's hand as if in an act of obeissance . He accepted the hands graciously. What he was thinking we can only guess at. Was that a flicker of condescension on his lips?  Nigel was left alone to shrug and go off to the pub.

In the pub, or wherever he did go, Farage must have shaken his head a little. He alone had underlined that the economy isn't yet fixed and the control of national policy exercised by the EU is excessive but nobody was listening. The studio audience,- whose bias he challenged,- was far happier with shouts of no more austerity (as if we've really seen half of what's necessary), and promises of more borrowing ,endlessly taxing "the rich" and other bogey people who already pay the bulk of the nation's taxes, create the jobs but do so, shock, horror for profit.The Welsh lady had even said,- presumably to Miliband,- "Give us £1.5 billion a year and we won't have to do austerity" and not a murmur of disapproval was heard.

The case for the right, the listing of the coalition's many achievements went unstated and there was no counterweight to Miliband's dominance of the proceedings. Cameron would have had clear field of fire and been able to challenge the myths being put about. We must assume that he had been advised by Crosby not to take part because he sometimes isn't quick enough on his feet to deal with the unexpected and there was the danger of him being led into a costly trap. It turned out to be a mistake and he should have seen that coming.

Many would argue that Nicola Sturgeon's performance was the evening's highlight. As a speaker and leader she is far ahead of the Westminster metro elite duo. She is also on a  mission,- and as far as the integrity of the UK is concerned not a good one. South of the border most don't know in any detail what she's really all about but they like her style, the fact that she comes across as a plain speaking, decisive human. That's a far cry from the Cameron and Miliband Oxbridge retinues. Glasgow University Union ("Is there a university in Glasgow?" they might ask) has for decades been the best training ground for aspirant politicians. Its annual five full scale parliamentary debates have no rivals in the UK. They do real down to earth political cut and thrust. That is where she learned her trade. That's why she is making mincemeat of Labour in Scotland in this national UK election. She may not in next year's Scottish Parliament elections but that is a story we will come back to.

Powerful though Ms Sturgeon was in this debate, it didn't really matter.The real winner was Ed Miliband. That final lineup of the three ladies to shake his hand said it all.  His cred was just a little  higher and the Conservative case against him a little more dented. That's especially true among women voters who had already marked him up a notch or two after the previous week's revelations that he had had a bit of a way with women whilst at university. Over to you David Cameron,- and please don't come up with a mistress or two of the hounds.

Two weeks to go..............

Another three and a half weeks.

On and on goes the UK's General Election excuse for a campaign. None of those old fashioned town hall meetings to out candidates on the spot and in some cases (Labour notably) to be evicted if too challenging. No political PR person could possibly allow such hazardous things and God forbid that the unwashed should be allowed to get anywhere near the precious objects surrounded by a phalanx of security people movig at as high a speed as possible. Walkabouts are nearly all stage managed as are interminable meetings requiring the backdrop of factories (ideally in high vis jackets and hard hats), building sites (ditto) or schools or (hard pressed or smiling depending on party) hospitals.

This week sees the publication of manifestos. Labour go first on Monday,then the Tories and then on through the ranks. These are mean to explain the philosophy, beliefs, core values and priorities of the partys and then of course all the actual policies flow simply and logically from these, giving the voters clear and honest choices.

Some hope.

 Are we going to see Labour up front with "We believe that we should return to the socialism of the 1950s, that the government will make most decisions as to what the people get (schools, hospitals), spend whatever the unions dictate and ensure that individual effort, risk taking and private enterprise receive as few rewards as possible. We really are only interested in what we think used to be the working class,-we call them "working people,-" who should be treated and rewarded "fairly",- ie be told what to do and be taxed as heavily as possible if they get ideas above their station. Wealth , power and choice really are only for the Party elite,- as you electorate would of course wish.

Are the Tories going to say "We've rather lost our way actually. We don't have a philosophy but we are quite nice chaps and unlike most of the others we don't hate anyone. We'd like to build a lot more houses ,but not where we live. We didn't get to grips with the current account defeceit, rethink and redesign what the state is all about and really drive through all the reforms we should have done straight out of the traps in 2010 but then we don't have business people who've ever actually run anything or lived in the real world so it's been a steep learning curve. There are a lot of things we don't understand like the difference between immigrants we need, students who shouldn't be regarded as immigrants at all and people we don't need at all. We think we've more or less sussed it all though so give us another go. After all the other lot brought us to the edge of every imaginable abyss so you'd be wasting your time with them. Think Gordon Brown reborn".

Then there are the Lib Dems. As in 2010 Nick has actually fought a good campaign but he has been drowned out by most others so remains looking rather forlorn. Is he going to carry on saying "We are the middle way"? We offer a bit of this and a bit of that. More tax from seemingly endless supply of "the rich", bankers, non doms and any other figures of public hate who pay the bulk of Britain's taxes anyway. He could hold some ground but certainly not gain any.

UKIP, Greens, SNP we will skip over and leave for another time.

Our verdict on the past week? Cameron is flagging a bit but probably doesn't know why. Where would he get real feedback if he doesn't seem to have any network among real people? Slagging Miliband off simply lifts his opponent's stature. So did a press report that Ed may have been a bit of a lad back in uni days, knocking them over with his conversations about economics and so on. For some reason the female vote always seems to perk up at stories of falling trousers, even if years old. Remember John Major? The gut feel on Miliband is that he actually did quite well. His suits and features look better pressed and he doesn't look quite as much as if he needs a day off as Cameron who just isn't coming off the battlebus bouncing. Ed's big presentational plus is that he looks and sounds like a man with a mission and political conviction . And he is one,- devastatingly awful though the path he wishes to follow may be. Nick Clegg keeps beavering away and could come up with a better result (losing less seats) than has been assumed. Over the border Nicola Sturgeon continues to forge ahead . She looks on track to almost wipe out Labour's Westminster seats but she does risk overdoing it to the extent that some voters fear giving her too much power and scuttle back to the old old rustbucket Labour that has served Scotland so badly for decades.

More next week if you or we can stand it. Meanwhile the feeling in much of the south appears to be "Please let it all be over soon".

Oh No,- 45 more days to the UK General Election.

Even the most politically addicted must by now be wearying of the UK's longest ever election campaign. The coalition decreed fixed term 5 year parliaments as a means of ensuring that it stayed in business as long as possible and had to whatever the stresses and strains upon it. The former arrangement was that a government could run to a full five year term or at any time call a General Election with just 21 days notice. Although it did give the incumbents an advantage in being able to pick their timing it made for a short, snappy campaign during which it was possible to say most things once and then get on with the business. The speed of the process gave it impetus, energy and pace which swept many voters along with it. There was a sense of involvement and genuine, lively debate.

May 7th's election is yawningly different. It really began last year with the Scottish referendum which the Better Together campaign mistakenly thought they had won for at least a generation. The SNP thought otherwise and has kept peddling ever since.

The party leaders are well known and there is little enthusiasm for any of them. Cameron remains seen as an aloof patrician, Miliband an aloof north London socialist geek and Clegg whatever he is. The rest range in many minds from the seemingly loopy to unthinkable as future leaders of government. Farage is a good man-of-the people type speaker/debater but his gloss is beginning to come off . He could have been entertaining and lethal in a three way debate with Cameron and Miliband as neither is as quick on their feet as he is and he wouldn't be relying on a script written by an Australian or American adviser or even Alistair Campbell. The SNP duo, Sturgeon and Salmond, can come over well and spontaneously but simply grate and irritate south of the border.

Arguments about austerity v borrow/tax and spend flow back and forth in WW1 trench warfare style. It's a slugging/slagging match and nobody is winning. TV viewers are immune to staged pictures of politicians in hard hats, high vis jackets or other ill fitting "work" garb as they colonise shop floors, schools or hospitals wringing their hands about this and that in front of bemused "ordinary" ad no doubt "hard working" staff. One off sideshow scandals come and go. A BBC or ITN political reporter declares "This is serious for X Party or Y leader". But it isn't. Not really. The audience is used to and expects a bit of this and that as part of the Punch and Judy show. Few such things change its voting intentions,if any,very much.

So what's missing? What's not happening and why is most of the nation finding it all so tedious?

The big gap is that nobody so far has put forward a vision for Britain. There hasn't been one. Nothing at all. Somehow big plans and visions are not part of the British way of doing things. Most people would like and rally to them but back in the 1960s Labour's George Brown was ridiculed for his National Plan and politicians have been scared of them ever since. We know that the NHS is under strain but nobody has proposed to do anything other than to throw more money at the underperforming state monopoly monolith which needs root and branch review and a PLAN. The taxation system ,occupying 11,520 pages spread over 5 volumes is unbelievably complex. That's because it fulfills two very different roles . Firstly the collection of money and secondly as a system of social and other micro engineering. The UK tax code in 2009 ran to 11,520 pages spread over 4 volumes. It needs reform and a PLAN. Hong Kong's, which shows flat rate taxes, no VAT, Death Duties,or Capital Gains Tax is contained in just 200. Then there's Education, Immigration, Europe and the rest. No real plans for any of them. The noise around them is mainly wheelspin. Lots of disjointed statements but no PLAN.

There is a glimmer of hope though. Last week a vision did appear. It was not labelled as such and related only to transport infrastructure but it was a vision all the same. With details to be announced this week, the news is the development of a much enhanced road network across the country. Taken together with rail infrastructure plans (including more electrification, revival of some closed links, enhanced signalling to give more line capacity) already announced and in some cases under way, this means there is now a government vision although it doesn't seem to recognise a vision even when it announces one.  If each party could now announce similar strategies for all departmental activity and wrap them into their individual  "Vision for Britain" to lay before the electorate there would be some exciting choices and the campaign could come alive.

 Unfortunately that doesn't seem likely to happen .Despite the media's attempts at hyping anything that comes to hand this is likely to be the longest and dullest campaign ever.

Juncker terrfies Moscow with EU army proposal.

Always a man with a talent for the the ridiculous, the EU's Jean-Claude Juncker has proposed the creation of an EU army to show Russia that the EU is serious about defending European values.(Don't ask)

The laughter from the Kremlin is audiable here. Defending? If the EU really going to risk a nuclear or even heavy conventional attack to defend an inch of Ukraine or even the Baltic states? Most unlikely,- and Russia knows it.

Putting that small matter aside, the idea of a joint EU army raises visions of Gilbert and Sullivan. They should be alive to set it to music. What would it do? Who would lead it?  Who would follow ? Who would decide anything? In which direction would it go? The mind truly boggles. Mr Putin won't be losing any sleep but he might drop off chuckling.

Plain Speaking Award...

...today goes to Kim Sears,Andy Murray's fiancée for a few expletives directed at the competition during the semi final of the Melbourne Open.

This was an occasion of high drama, tensions and above all the wish to see her man win. She said it how it felt, f- words and all.

In the current particularly British and American world of political correctness, which becomes more restrictive and oppressive by the day and in which she should obviously have said things like " a That's not very good" or  " Goodness me" , her outburst came as a blast of fresh air. Expressing feelings as they really are or with emotion is almost taboo and taken by the ranks of the slab faced miserabalists as vastly more significant than they really are. What she said on the spur of the moment was harmless , not pre scripted but spontaneous and alive. Excellent.

Dave to miss debate?

The news that David Cameron won't engage in any pre-election televised debates between the main political party heads (We can't really use the word leaders) unless the extra terrestrial Greens are included as a counter balance to UKIP's Nigel Farage comes as no surprise.

He seems to think any excuse will do.

Why bother with excuses though?  He should just say he doesn't want to do it because he is a pretty hopeless debater. He's OK, if wooden, at delivering pre-scripted and rehearsed speeches, often still relying on notes and autocues but he isn't good at the cut and thrust of spontaneous repartee. His real fear is not the Wallace-like miserabilist Ed who includes the class warfare stuff " For the many, not the few" in set pieces peppered with "hard working families" (why not singles?) in all he says. As far as most voters are concerned Dave and Ed are inner London political elite, alias the the speaking version of a heavy sedative. Both speak Martian and neither is really comfortable with talking to or mixing with the "ordinary people" about whom they talk so much.

 Nor is he or anyone worried about having to say "I agree with Nick" this time around.

The real problem for Dave, and to an extent Ed, is Nigel Farage. Here is a man with an armory of pre -prepared thrusts which he can deliver at will as occasion demands. He can think on his feet, repel and ridicule any assault and come over as the man in the bar with a pint in one hand and a politically incorrect fag in the other. Being savaged by Nigel and then kicked in the other Eds by opportunistic fratricidal Ed and hand wringing Nick when he's on the floor is not something Dave fancies,- especially on three occasions and multiple times within each.

If Dave wants to move on to Nigel turf, he  needs to reject the idea of televised debates by getting honest and say " I'm not crazy. Everyone knows I'm lousy at debates and don't enjoy them for a minute.They are just a piece of theatre like the weekly PMQs. I'm happy though to be grilled by Andrew Marr or anyone else in places where I feel more comfortable and can give more useful answers."

Unfortunately the chances of  our man having the courage to say just that are almost zero. That's why Farage is such a threat. He won't necessarily get enough votes to win many seats but he could split the right's votes in enough Tory seats to let Ed slip through the railings and into Number 10 as leader of the largest single party even though the majority don't want him or it. Just as in the Labour leadership election in fact. We could be facing the most undemocratic result ever of a General Election. Ed himself is said to believe that 35% of the vote will do it for him.

Back to the debates though. Our prediction is that one way or the other reluctant Dave will be forced to join Ed, Nick and Nige on a stage or two. He'd better start thinking now about how he will appear delighted to be there before Nige wipes the floor with him followed in short order by Ed and Nick too in acts of collateral verbal violence before they get too chirpy about it.

Footnote: The Oxford Union is not the best place to learn the arts of undergraduate debating. For that he should have gone to Glasgow University whose parliamentary debates have long been in a league of their own. But he wouldn't have known there was a Glasgow University,- or maybe even a Glasgow.

Britons Overwhelmed,-Things go Wrong.

Britons really have taken a hammering at home and abroad these last few weeks. There's been an air traffic control computer failure, snow in the Alps (wasn't that predictable), disruption on some railways due to over running engineering work (ditto). It's amazing that we've pulled  through to January 4th.

As we know there are set givens in our world of entitlements and rights. These include:

- The state is our Father, Mother and Nursemaid.

- When things don't go quite as expected someone (else) is always to blame.

-It is wrong that anything should go wrong. (Other people's) Heads must roll.

-There is no such thing as an accident. Any adverse event  must be actionable.

- "Not for profit" is how the world should be. It is immoral that however much anyone has risked or endured to create new products, services and jobs that they should in any way gain from their efforts.

-We have a right to cheap rail fares subsidised by the taxpayer. (Who?- That's not us, not really).

-The only acceptable way to make money is by winning or taking part in a TV reality show,playing football or scooping the lottery or being an imagined national treasure. These people should not be challenged.  All other forms of self advancement are exploitative and downright wrong.

-The railways should be renationalised. Memories of how things were before privatisation and the enormous post privatisation investments and improvements are very short.

- Also a candidate for nationalisation according to the RMT union should be a failed courier/parcels delivery company so that 2,700 jobs are not lost. Again the taxpayer can fund it .Why the nation should want to add to its debts the costs of keeping a non viable business in an overcrowded market is not explained. Maybe it's an extension of the educationalists view that nothing and nobody should be allowed to fail?  No chance of RMT's money following its mouth and buying it themselves.

-"Britons stranded in Alps" went the newspaper headlines. Well, yes, a few but so were Germans Scandinavians, French and many others. "We don't know where we are" wailed one lady at Chambery Airport into which she had just flown. Maybe this was a moment when a New York cop needed to be on hand with the crisp unsmiling reply "Buy a map". "Nobody's telling us what to do " is another frequent wail."Engage brain"would be the best, terribly un-British, retort. Think of the mental scarring that would leave. There must be compensation. Somebody must be sued.

Britain's NHS,- And they say it doesn't need reform.

Two real life encounters experienced  with the NHS in different parts of the country by members of one family last week:

1) GP to patient: "Normally we would run a few tests on this but as it's Friday afternoon we can't."

2) Helpline 111 responding to request for an appointment with the local out of hours GP service.(This little publicised facility is usually hidden away in hospitals, separate from but close to A and E departments). "It's 6pm now and as there are a couple of GP surgeries open on the other side of the county until 6.30pm we can't offer this service until they close so please ring back after that time."

Enough said.