What passed for a British summer is over. It was a strange one. No long weeks of sun, lots of dark,cold, rainy,days. It just never really got going. OK we won the Ashes but in a peculiar and somehow unsatisfying way which precluded any thoughts of triumphant open top bus parade followed by cricketers behaving badly at Number 10. With the holidays over and schools back this is the real New Year and the slide into autumn and then winter begins. It's enough to make one shiver,- if not already doing so.
Politics was been a largely desert area since the May General Election with two vanquished leaders , Ed and Nick,doing a runner and Nige just doing a quick nip around the block before returning to reclaim UKIP's crown. Nobody seems to quite know or care what the unfortunate Nick did . Ed, after a couple of shorthaul former man the people sorts of breaks, ultimately got as far as far as Australia having abandoned his party at their hour of greatest need of some continuity and stability. He has grown a beard. Maybe the holidaying Ed is about to disappear on a walkabout in the outback where he might meet his political self doing the same thing.
Meanwhile in the smoldering ruin of the Labour Party someone thought it would be a good idea to throw a bit of excitement into the otherwise near dead Labour leadership contest by drafting veteran left winger Jeremy Corbyn into the pot "Just to widen the debate". It did that and barring a miracle the man will now be the next Leader and take the party off to the far, union led, left. The unions and other outposts of the left had never gone away. Always much more organised than any equivalents on the right, they bided their time through the Blair years , felt a bit more perky under Brown and got ready for a takeoever bid under the Ed. They have now launched their very well planned and effective offensive. The moment looks like being theirs. Labour moderates and modernisers can expect to be tidying their shadow ministerial desks as the remnants and replicas of Militant Tendency (To most barely distinguishable from the Communist Party but possibly less attractive move in. Mr Corbyn is promising to use every possible Parliamentary means to frustrate the democratically elected Conservative government's attempts to do almost anything. As the cargo cult SNP are determined to behave likewise it could be a rough four and a half years unless the Tory right and oddballs behave themselves, something which seems unlikely. Just when the voters are saying the are pretty sick of party pantomimes and would just like to see some cooperation to get things done the mice look like playing. The nightmare scenario is that the Tories somehow stuff things up so badly that they lose the 2020 General Election and in comes Mr Corbyn by default. It might solve the net migration problem but it would not be good for the longer term health of UK Plc.
On the migration score we have are seeing a flood of migrants head to the Mediterranean. The genuine refugees, mainly from Syria, have mostly entered Europe via Greece while the generally economic migrants from Africa have made the crossing from Libya.
The EU's programe to rescue those at sea between the Libyan and italian coasts and land them in Europe rather than back in North Africa has meant that the people smugglers selling and logistical jobs have become much easier. Instead of providing seaworthy boats, all they now have to do is push overloaded rubber dinghys out to sea and then send distress calls, or maybe not even those, knowing that most will be picked up. Some drown. The traffickers don't care. No refunds. This was always going to be the result of a "pull through" rather than "return to origin" policy .Only the naive (notably politicians and NGOs in the refugee business,- for that's what it is)- would think otherwise. Europeans generally are confused. They like to talk liberal and hardly dare appear to be reactionary. They speak therefore in moralising tones and with shaking heads and much tutting, about having to do something for these people "who must be desparate". Much of the media routinely use the phrase "Desperate migrants". Many, especially the Syrians, are genuinely that. Some though are not. There is almost no mention of fact that the potential flow of economic migrants from sub Saharan Africa is almost limitless. Families tend to be large. That means maybe ten people to follow in the wake of every one who is given leave to stay. So as to keep away from the uncomfortable truth that most of the refugees from sub Saharan Africa and non combat zones such as Bangladesh are economic migrants, the media has in the last few days almost exclusively focused on the eastern Med where most are indeed Syrians. Today's tragic picture of a soldier carrying a young drowned boy is being almost relentlessly used to fuel shouts that Europe's borders must be opened. How many have any idea of where that could lead and what it would mean?
In order to develop a fair and coherant policy Europe first has do decide what it really wants to do and be. The conclusions should not come in the form of diktats by Messrs Junker, Merkels, the beaurocrats of Brussels or any other self appointed person or body. The definition of what needs to be done then flows from that rather than a series of disjointed ad hoc emotionally driven responses. Europe and its constituent nations need to understand the dynamics of the current shambles so that they can clearly identify what needs to be done long term about huge volumes of migrants now being pushed by warfare, misgovernment or poverty at home and pulled by the attraction of a new life. They also need to understand that the issue is far far bigger than the short term one of how to deal with the thousands or tens of thousands already in transit. It's about the potential millions or even tens of millions who could follow .Is Europe happy about and ready for the future massive cultural and social changes and for existing majorities to become minorities and ruled accordingly? These might not smack of the democracy or mainly secular foundations they are used to. If it is happy with or even ready to accept these new realities then it can relax and take in all comers.
Many would reasonably conclude that Europe's failings have destabalised the Middle East . In Africa particularly it has ever since the 1960s squandered billions on aid projects which have achieved absolutely nothing lasting and this nothing is at the root of much we are seeing. While handing out the funds, often with grossly inadequate monitoring of how the money is spent and turning a blind eye to poor governance, corruption and even the effective rule of law the western world has behaved with almost total disregard of the man or woman in or on the street. Too often they have been left in abject poverty with no prospects while the big men have grown more opulent and oppressive by the day. If all the money poured into recipients had been spent on building and maintaining infrastructure, developing and training training expertise there would be no reason for anybody to want to leave. Why is Tanzania for example not a glittering tropical state with wonderful schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure?
The aim of refugee programes should be to improve conditions in the countries of origin so that they are able to return home to rebuild their homes and lives as soon as possible .That point is becoming lost in the current wave of media emotional outpourings.The issues around economic migrants are very different and needs to be separated from those who really are seeking refuge.
Before the refugee "Crisis" Greece had been enjoying daily headlines about "Grexit-Yes or No?" Would they stay in the EU and Eurozone or not? At least until after the new snap election the answer was a sort of "Yes" between gritted teeth, Other than Mr Junker and other drivers of "the Great Project" nobody anywhere really seemed to believe it. Maybe even they didn't. The opportunity to regain their freedom from the straitjacket of an essentially northern European currency and constant frowns and lectures from Brussels must be very tempting to the Greek voters, whatever the short term pain.
Across the Atlantic they have as usual been squaring up for another of their all too frequent elections. This time it's the big one, the 2016 Presidential in which the incumbent is barred from standing. Incredibly for the world's most powerful nation (Sorry Mr Putin of the bare chest), there is no sign of a battle of the Titans. Hillary Clinton, for long the assumed winner, is losing ground. Where is the next Democrat big hitter? On the other side the very idea that Donald Trump could be a serious contender is difficult for a foreigner to comprehend. Maybe to many Americans too? Where is the Republicans giant of a personality and obvious front runner? Not another Bush surely?
Happy New Year/Autumn!
Politics was been a largely desert area since the May General Election with two vanquished leaders , Ed and Nick,doing a runner and Nige just doing a quick nip around the block before returning to reclaim UKIP's crown. Nobody seems to quite know or care what the unfortunate Nick did . Ed, after a couple of shorthaul former man the people sorts of breaks, ultimately got as far as far as Australia having abandoned his party at their hour of greatest need of some continuity and stability. He has grown a beard. Maybe the holidaying Ed is about to disappear on a walkabout in the outback where he might meet his political self doing the same thing.
Meanwhile in the smoldering ruin of the Labour Party someone thought it would be a good idea to throw a bit of excitement into the otherwise near dead Labour leadership contest by drafting veteran left winger Jeremy Corbyn into the pot "Just to widen the debate". It did that and barring a miracle the man will now be the next Leader and take the party off to the far, union led, left. The unions and other outposts of the left had never gone away. Always much more organised than any equivalents on the right, they bided their time through the Blair years , felt a bit more perky under Brown and got ready for a takeoever bid under the Ed. They have now launched their very well planned and effective offensive. The moment looks like being theirs. Labour moderates and modernisers can expect to be tidying their shadow ministerial desks as the remnants and replicas of Militant Tendency (To most barely distinguishable from the Communist Party but possibly less attractive move in. Mr Corbyn is promising to use every possible Parliamentary means to frustrate the democratically elected Conservative government's attempts to do almost anything. As the cargo cult SNP are determined to behave likewise it could be a rough four and a half years unless the Tory right and oddballs behave themselves, something which seems unlikely. Just when the voters are saying the are pretty sick of party pantomimes and would just like to see some cooperation to get things done the mice look like playing. The nightmare scenario is that the Tories somehow stuff things up so badly that they lose the 2020 General Election and in comes Mr Corbyn by default. It might solve the net migration problem but it would not be good for the longer term health of UK Plc.
On the migration score we have are seeing a flood of migrants head to the Mediterranean. The genuine refugees, mainly from Syria, have mostly entered Europe via Greece while the generally economic migrants from Africa have made the crossing from Libya.
The EU's programe to rescue those at sea between the Libyan and italian coasts and land them in Europe rather than back in North Africa has meant that the people smugglers selling and logistical jobs have become much easier. Instead of providing seaworthy boats, all they now have to do is push overloaded rubber dinghys out to sea and then send distress calls, or maybe not even those, knowing that most will be picked up. Some drown. The traffickers don't care. No refunds. This was always going to be the result of a "pull through" rather than "return to origin" policy .Only the naive (notably politicians and NGOs in the refugee business,- for that's what it is)- would think otherwise. Europeans generally are confused. They like to talk liberal and hardly dare appear to be reactionary. They speak therefore in moralising tones and with shaking heads and much tutting, about having to do something for these people "who must be desparate". Much of the media routinely use the phrase "Desperate migrants". Many, especially the Syrians, are genuinely that. Some though are not. There is almost no mention of fact that the potential flow of economic migrants from sub Saharan Africa is almost limitless. Families tend to be large. That means maybe ten people to follow in the wake of every one who is given leave to stay. So as to keep away from the uncomfortable truth that most of the refugees from sub Saharan Africa and non combat zones such as Bangladesh are economic migrants, the media has in the last few days almost exclusively focused on the eastern Med where most are indeed Syrians. Today's tragic picture of a soldier carrying a young drowned boy is being almost relentlessly used to fuel shouts that Europe's borders must be opened. How many have any idea of where that could lead and what it would mean?
In order to develop a fair and coherant policy Europe first has do decide what it really wants to do and be. The conclusions should not come in the form of diktats by Messrs Junker, Merkels, the beaurocrats of Brussels or any other self appointed person or body. The definition of what needs to be done then flows from that rather than a series of disjointed ad hoc emotionally driven responses. Europe and its constituent nations need to understand the dynamics of the current shambles so that they can clearly identify what needs to be done long term about huge volumes of migrants now being pushed by warfare, misgovernment or poverty at home and pulled by the attraction of a new life. They also need to understand that the issue is far far bigger than the short term one of how to deal with the thousands or tens of thousands already in transit. It's about the potential millions or even tens of millions who could follow .Is Europe happy about and ready for the future massive cultural and social changes and for existing majorities to become minorities and ruled accordingly? These might not smack of the democracy or mainly secular foundations they are used to. If it is happy with or even ready to accept these new realities then it can relax and take in all comers.
Many would reasonably conclude that Europe's failings have destabalised the Middle East . In Africa particularly it has ever since the 1960s squandered billions on aid projects which have achieved absolutely nothing lasting and this nothing is at the root of much we are seeing. While handing out the funds, often with grossly inadequate monitoring of how the money is spent and turning a blind eye to poor governance, corruption and even the effective rule of law the western world has behaved with almost total disregard of the man or woman in or on the street. Too often they have been left in abject poverty with no prospects while the big men have grown more opulent and oppressive by the day. If all the money poured into recipients had been spent on building and maintaining infrastructure, developing and training training expertise there would be no reason for anybody to want to leave. Why is Tanzania for example not a glittering tropical state with wonderful schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure?
The aim of refugee programes should be to improve conditions in the countries of origin so that they are able to return home to rebuild their homes and lives as soon as possible .That point is becoming lost in the current wave of media emotional outpourings.The issues around economic migrants are very different and needs to be separated from those who really are seeking refuge.
Before the refugee "Crisis" Greece had been enjoying daily headlines about "Grexit-Yes or No?" Would they stay in the EU and Eurozone or not? At least until after the new snap election the answer was a sort of "Yes" between gritted teeth, Other than Mr Junker and other drivers of "the Great Project" nobody anywhere really seemed to believe it. Maybe even they didn't. The opportunity to regain their freedom from the straitjacket of an essentially northern European currency and constant frowns and lectures from Brussels must be very tempting to the Greek voters, whatever the short term pain.
Across the Atlantic they have as usual been squaring up for another of their all too frequent elections. This time it's the big one, the 2016 Presidential in which the incumbent is barred from standing. Incredibly for the world's most powerful nation (Sorry Mr Putin of the bare chest), there is no sign of a battle of the Titans. Hillary Clinton, for long the assumed winner, is losing ground. Where is the next Democrat big hitter? On the other side the very idea that Donald Trump could be a serious contender is difficult for a foreigner to comprehend. Maybe to many Americans too? Where is the Republicans giant of a personality and obvious front runner? Not another Bush surely?
Happy New Year/Autumn!
