Sunday 22 January 2012

Sunday Quickie- Ashdown advises.......

.......that the proposed £26k per household limit on benefits claims is not a good idea.

That has every chance of meaning that it must be a very good one.

Tuesday 17 January 2012

Education, Education,Education..........

.. so said Tony Blair at the start of his heady first term of office as British Prime Minister heading up the then exciting and shiny New Labour.

He was right. Good education, and particularly state education, is key to Britain pulling itself out of its trademark quagmire of a class ridden, socially and divided society which has hauled it downwards into underperformance and its historic problems of under achievement and poverty.

Michael Gove's current efforts to do something about it in state schools (it is generally , but not always, done anyway in the private sector) are resolute and progressive in that they put the interests of the children way ahead of those of the teachers. At last here is someone who proposes to tackle a problem everyone has always known about,-that of the poor performing or even hopeless teacher. They do exist and they blight the lives of those subjected to them. Thanks to the power of the unions and timidity of many head teachers it has been almost impossible to deal with them and few are ever actually sacked. Some are encouraged to leave but are provided with references which enable them to go on and inflict their inadequacies on other pupils somewhere else.

Gove is proposing to take the issue by the scruff of the neck and make it possible to dismiss a poor performer within a term rather than a year. This is excellent for pupils, parents and the standing of the teaching profession itself. As such it might reasonably expect a warm welcome from all quarters.

Not so. Given the opportunity to embrace a new, happier and better world in which children have the best chance to thrive at school, the unions have opted as ever to defend the barricades of the supply side,-their members as employees rather than the same people and others as customers of education. Their attitude is the same as encountered right across the spectrum of all activities,- "You will have the quality we say you can have, not a jot more." All very Soviet in style. As result they have labelled this initiative as "A bullies charter". They love the word bully. It crops up in all sorts of disputes as part of a bid for the moral high ground. Any union member who has tried to stand out against the crowd in an industrial dispute knows what bullying really is. In reality the idea that they might be positioned as a much bruised David fighting a Goliath on behalf of their members has long been and remains ludicrous. The truth here is that they are fighting for themselves and their membership numbers. It is these which make them viable as businesses. The fight for the vast majority of their members and the rights of everyone to the best possible education schools of all kinds can provide seems to be out of their radar range. maybe it's the concept they struggle with. Their simple overriding interest in power and control is further demonstrated today by some of their very hostile comments about Ed Miliband who they regard as their appointee (as indeed he was) daring to say that he agrees with the needs for "cuts" and the public sector wage freeze. They certainly aren't looking to play any part in the revival of a feel good factor in the near future. No change then and no search for a new and relevant role in designing a new and better Britain,-just a hankering for the broken down old one.

Friday 13 January 2012

The parocial politics of British transport policy. What they mean- and the risks.

British Transport Secretary Juntine Greening's go-ahead for the new HS2 High Speed rail link initially between London and Birmingham with later extensions to Heathrow from the southern end and Manchester, Leeds and ultimtely possibly points north and Scottish from the northern, came as a welcome relief.

Two previous decisions, the one saying "Never" to the building of a third runway at Heathrow and the much smaller but still important rejection of the low cost plan for a rail link between Heathrow and the 3rd rail electric railway network south of the airport, west to Reading and east back to London's Waterloo looked very politically orientated towards rewarding and encouraging Conservative voters in sometimes closely contested west London constituencies, not least those of Ms Greening and her predecessor, Philip Hammond.

The cancellation of the 3rd Heathrow runway, already given the go-ahead by Labour's forward looking Lord Adonis (also the prime mover of HS2), was a disastrous and nakedly political and parochial vote-grabbing promise by David Cameron before the May 2010 General Election. It was also electorally unnecessary. It was the epitome of vision-free Little England thinking and pointed worryingly towards the lack of any political philosophy about building for the country's future. Worse still, it did not point towards any alternative other than the decline of London as a world airline and business centre and hub. It was electioneering at its worst and if uncorrected it will cost UK Plc billions at an ever increasing rate over years to come.

The cancellation by Hammond of the southern Heathrow rail connection was also dire. A Works Order was imminent and the digging not far off when the Secretary of State brought it to a juddering halt. The problem? Traffic congestion and delays if a major level crossing in the middle of his constituency had to close 4 more times every hour. That would have cost him a few hard times at local social occasions.

On the back of these two decisions, the prospects for HS 2 did not look good. There has been and continues to be almost hysterical opposition to the project particularly from Conservative constituencies and Councils in Buckhamshire, Oxfordshire and Northamptonshire. Further north, where the Tory constituencies begin to thin out, most MPs and Councils unsurprisingly want it. Megaphone level opposition and disinformation continue to flow and look like remaining as serious background noise as the project moves tortuously forward at the speed of a constipated snail over the next four years. That's the earliest the first sod might be cut. There have been threats by MPs to resign or at least abandon their posts (The Welsh Secretary) and voters to vote for someone else at the next election. Who? Ed Miliband? In the Chilterns? UKIP? Well, maybe but not in big enough quantities to dislodge the Tories. That little calculation may have swung the balance this time in favour of ignoring the sensitivities of the local constituencies. A few sops were thrown in to placate wealthy Tory interests,- Hartwell House saw its section of line bent a bit towards the much larger number of less well off/influential people in the a big new estate on the neighbouring fringe of Aylesbury and the short bit further out past Edgcote House was gently curved away to go closer to less affluent folks instead. The view down into the Vale of Aylesbury from Waddesdon Manor doesn't appear to have fared badly either, not that a distant railway line would have been intrusive anyway.

Transport is just one area of government/political activity. If these sorts of things appear to be happening in that quarter, what ,one speculates, is going on in others where local interests of both MPs and constituents, are involved ? The expenses scandal and public outcry last year showed indignation about any whiff of less than the highest standards of behaviour being shown by the elected representatives. Expenses are just one area of activity. Determination and execution of policy in the whole national interest rather than local or personal ones is another. Mr Cameron is on dangerous ground if he allows any chinks to appear in his once stated intention of cleaning up Westminster behaviours. The need/demand is for integrity. Let's say it again and spell it out slowly so there's no mistake. I-N-T-E-G-R-I-T-Y.

Tuesday 10 January 2012

Emissions Trading: The EU gets up China's nose cone.

China has been unequivocal in its condemnation of the EU's inclusion of airlines in in its Emissions Trading Scheme from 1st January this year. It will refuse to pay and nor will it pay any resultant unilaterally imposed "fines". Good for the Chinese.

The notion of one area of the world unilaterally imposing its own scheme on any others wishing to fly into or over it is disturbing and extraordinarily arrogant.It does the EU and its standing in the world no good at all but it does show how this massive and barely democratic beaurocracy can behave when it thinks it can get away with it. In short just like any other massive and barely democratic beaurocracy. It also shows a supreme insensitivity to the needs in particular of many poorer non EU states. For decades ICAO, IATA and others have fought for the opening rather than closing of international airways and for the reduction of charges. Russia and China which stand astride the fastest routes from Europe to Asia had been particularly restrictive and only truly opened up in the last 15 or so years. Now all carriers are able to fly these fast routes and recently even more over the North Pole have been opened up, albeit some of the very recent only to selected operators.

The benefits of lower cost air travel in terms of international business travel and the tourism on which many tropical developing countries depend have been enormous. Added to the airlines' and manufacturers efforts to produce ever more efficient aircraft and to operate them more economically, these have made air travel affordable to much larger and more socially diverse markets. The business has boomed to the benefit of all concerned.

Now it's as if all these efforts have been wasted. An unholy alliance of stay-at-home-with-the-lights-out environmentalists and rapacious tax-thirsty governments are doing all they can to bleed the industry dry and leave what is left of it as the preserve of the wealthy, a notion which if they gave it a moment's thought is socially and politically highly objectionable.

Back to the Chinese though. Already by way of retaliation a Hong Kong order for 10 Airbus A 380s has been put on hold. Boeing will be salivating at the prospect of becoming a near monopoly supplier to the world's greatest buyer of new civil aircraft. It is also reasonable to assume that if Chinese aircraft were banned from the EU there would be an immediate response, not only banning EU operated flights between the two areas but also those taking by far the shortest routes between Europe and Asia which of course overfly China. What then? The beneficiaries would be non Chinese Asian airlines and the ever growing Gulf ensemble flying via intermediate points.

Hopefully by creating the possibility of an ever escalating and expensive (mainly to the EU) impasse and crisis ,China has forced an eventual sensible resolution and a Brussels rethink. The USA and others who have objected to the unilateral imposition of the scheme but been less clear about their reaction should now come out from behind their couches and declare quite simply "No",-and then not blink.

Sunday 8 January 2012

12 Days of Christmas Devalued,- Now it's 24,- What you may have missed.

Monday 9th January sees the first fully manned day of working in the UK since probably around midday 21st December,or maybe the previous evening as many now "work at home" on Fridays. Most farewells,long service presentations, end of week office drinks and the like are now on Thursdays rather than Fridays in acknowledgmemt of this fact.Thats' how UK Plc faces the global economic challenge and 24/7 Asia in particular.

There seems to have been an unholy alliance between leading politicians and A list journalists and TV presenters to be on holiday, or at least off all messages, throughout the period. Foreign correspondents also seem to have been away from their seats and are presumably winging their way back to their posts today. An upside is that little has been seen of "The Big Three",- well the Big One plus Nick and Ed. Few would probably mind if they continued off air for a while longer. The result has been that UK viewers and readers have been treated to many B and C listers and a diet of national murders, family wipeouts and other domestic unpleasantnesses. Visiting foreigners scanning the channels and pages for real news will have wondered whether they should be making an early return home from an obviously crime infested country with little interest in the world beyond their bloodstained doorsteps. Hopefully they stayed as ,-like the High Street sales,- the whole economy needs their money.

So what has really been going on away from the turkeyfest, binge drinking and credit card maxing out?

-Europe and the Euro. The credit rating agencies called a sort of armed truce over the holidays, probably so that they too didn't have to come in to work. That will shortly be over and the future of the Euro and the nature and intentions of the EU itself will come under more scrutiny. When last seen the French and Germans were calling the shots and more or less saying what EU policy is/will be. So would you if you could get away with it. Meanwhile, apart from the recalcitrant UK and the odd mutter from Sweden, the rest hid behind the couch. Elsewhere it has emerged that Greece apart from its financial misdeeds is the conduit to most illegal immigration into the EU, much of it drawn right across the continent to the UK not by the magnetism of its culture and opportunities but the excessive generosity of its benefits system and reluctance to send back all but a handful of those who enter it. Hungary has been misbehaving too by bringing in a range of undemocratic measures to edge it back towards the bad old days of authoritanarism. It isn't alone in the latter activity as even the UK is alleged to be cooking up some very old fashioned restrictions on the ability to present in court cases evidence or information which might embarrass the government.

-Iran has been missile rattling and threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz should the EU ban the import of its oil. Logically it's unlikely to do that but there has been illogicality before especially when rallying anti-someone else feeling is useful to paper over problems at home.

-The EU has included aviation in Emissions Trading from January 1st. All flights by anyone traversing EU airspace must pay up or be fined even greater amounts. The EU court has unsurprisingly overruled objections and ruled this to be a legal act. The USA, the Gulf states and China in particular disgree as in reality do many developing countries who depend on aviation for business and tourism. The USA look like paying up for the time being but China has said absolutely not and ordered its airlines to keep their wallets in their pockets. The next stages could be interesting. China, the largest single source of airliner orders by far and a battleground bewteen Airbus and Boeing, has already ordered Hong Kong not to proceed with an order for ten Airbus A380s. In theory the EU could ban Chinese aircraft from their airports but then China, which sits astride the fastest routes from Asia to Europe could ban EU aircraft from its airspace, and then............More on this will appear on Airnthere.

-London 2012 (We like many others are not licensed to mention its other title,-one has to pay money for that). During the silly season the UK Government,- aka "Dave",- threw in another £50 or so million to enhance to opening and closing ceremonies. What happened to the heaven sent opportunity sent by the recession/global economic crisis to call a halt and say that the UK would take the opportunity to put some feeling of proportion and common sense into the proceedings and go with a less glitzy but appropriate and tasteful version of the games? Focus on the games and athletes would be a good start. The world does not need to see national squads led around the arena by posses of well fed suited officials. Nor does it need to see said persons flashing down the separate and peasant-free Zil lanes of otherwise traffic clogged London in any one of 3,000 new BMWs espcially bought by UK Plc.for their comfort. Money could also have been saved by better use of existing venues,- eg not digging up Greenwich Park for the equestrians but moving to the existing more than adequate facility at Windsor. If the rowing can be out there why not the horses? Meanwhile more details leak out about the contents of the secret Blair government/IOC agreement covering the games. Many conditions are extraordinary and extravagant and some of the costs to the host country absurd. Restrictions preventing local businesses from deriving any benefit are also neighbour unfriendly and downright greedy. This looks like a secretive and self indulgent circus in urgent need of reform.

-In the USA the Republicans search for a marketable Presidential candidate continues to amaze. One would expect that a country of the size, wealth and expertise of America would be spoiled for choice of excellent candidates. Unfortunately the long drawn out process of selection, the candidates' need for access to vast sums of money and the too-short cycle of Presidential and mid term elections all conspire to make the whole thing a debilitating nightmare and a distraction from the real affairs of state. Currently all candidates are doing Obama's work for him by slagging each other off mightily and demonstrating that none have what the world hopes it takes. Frighteningly all seem to claim to have God on their side.

-William Hague's visit to Burma was well timed. While immediate spectacular results can not be expected ,it was a useful nudge along the long road to ending the military dominated nightmare which has left the country in ever increasing and crumbling poverty and democratic rights deprivation since 1962.

-Somalia. Permission to carry armed guards now granted to UK ships is something long advocated by observers in neighbouring East Africa who are close to the action. The almost impossible restrictions on freedom of action imposed on EU naval vessels renders them unable to do very much in most situations. The UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee is seeking clarification on whether these guards have the right to shoot to kill and if so under what circumstances. Bearing in mind the inevitable EU complications of health and safety and human rights legislation, including no doubt the pirates' rights to a family life, perhaps this would be better left as a question unasked. But it has been. Maybe it would be better to leave the job to the Russian and Chinese navies.

-That's probably about it from these 24 days of Christmas. There have been hyped up gales, no white Christmas, nothing more on the Huhne "who was driving case". The Archbishop has muttered more about inequalities by which he means redistribution of wealth not creation of it for all. There are some things he doesn't get. Arguments about "Don't touch our wonderful NHS have been interspersed with reports of staff getting locked up for possibly speeding the exits of patients in a midland hospital. A union or two have threatened more strikes about goodness knows what but they remain "angry" about almost anything other than the high pay of some of their top people. They remain resolute in the their determination to take the country back to the past and champion the interests (as they see them) of their members in their workplace/delivery roles rather than as consumers and to make sure nobody does anything to fix, change or improve anything especially in health and education.

Welcome to 2012.

Posted by Air 'N There at 15:06

Wednesday 4 January 2012

Thames estuary airport for London?-Dream on,- there are bats in the belfry and everywhere.

For those promoting the idea of a quickly built new airport for London in the Thames estuary there is sobering news from the UK rail industry. The notion of a Chep Lap Kok (though that is already capacity limited and needs a third runway) or Incheon built in time to meet unconstrained growth needs looks less likely by the day. In a perfect world an island site close to London with 4 but potentially 6 runways would be ideal but the world itself doesn't live in a perfect world and the UK even less so. In Britain bats and newts and other heavily protected wildlife other than humans stalk the land. Humans collectively aren't reckoned to stack up to much but other creatures certainly are.

Less than 100 miles to the west of the islands of Roberts and Olsen/Moudarri there is a disused railway tunnel, one of 2 parallel ones on a line between Oxford and Bicester. It is proposed to reopen this tunnel to enable the line to be redoubled and become a new route between Oxford and London and to reopen part of the long closed Oxford- Cambridge line which would enable many tavellers to avoid having to travel via London. It is in airport terms a tiny, obvious and low cost project but a good and sensible one.

It has a problem though. Bats and newts. The bats have taken a liking to the disused tunnel and to taking a short cut through it to "commute". Apparently like humans they go to work and have urgent business as well no doubt as leisure travel and also a teenager style propensity to hang about in dark places with their mates. "Today's Railways" tells us that as result the local planning inspector has therefore rejected Chiltern Railways planning application on the basis that the tunnel is used by the bats "for swarming, commuting, foraging and a temporary roost site" and trains running through would damage their environment. An allied proposal to warn bats of approaching trains via a special lighting system is also rejected as unproven. He or she also identifies " a potential threat to a nearby colony of great crested newts". In fairness, the Transport Secretary, Justine Greening, has told Chiltern Railways and Natural England to go away and resolve the issue as quickly as possible, but rather like the judiciary, planning authorities and their officials tend to be very independent minded and stubborn. Such are the dangers of passing democracy down to the lowest level, something about which this government waxes lyrical.

With only bats and newts to worry about this show stopping short tunnel is very small beer. The Thames estuary is crawling with wildlife including resident and migratory birds. Every attempt to develop it in any way has previously been met with howls of protest. Any notion that a new airport could even get through the planning, objections and appeals processes, UK and EU, within 15 years is fanciful. All this underlines the fact that the coalition's binning of the nearly ready-to-go Heathrow third runway after the May 2010 General Election was a tragic mistake which is set to cost UK Plc billions over many years. Its obstinate refusal to even consider the runway as a possibility in the current review, likely to report in 2012 or 2013, is emotional, illogical and downright bad business.