Friday 23 November 2018

The Big Deal,- Must be just about right.

Theresa May's big deal goes to the EU leaders' meeting on Sunday. The chances are that it will be approved despite some residual griping such as Spain's over Gibraltar.

Back home it's not looking so easy. Getting anything through a parliament in which you don't have an overall majority is tricky but when your own party is split and you can't rely on help from any of the other parties it's even more so.

Let's look at it a different way though. If the deal on the table is equally disliked by Brexiteers and Remainers it's probably just about what the average Briton wants. An exit for one lot and not too far removed from remaining for the others. On a chart that would be slap in the middle. No surprise then that amidst the yelling from all sides, Mrs May has been looking quite confident this week.


Friday 9 November 2018

Advice to those worried about Brexit.


It's no use worrying about the effects of Brexit. They will be what they turn out to be depending upon the form Brexit takes, soft, medium, hard- or doesn't take.

A drop in the pound, increases in interest rates? Yes, yes quite likely at least until Britain settles down, accepts whatever has happened, dusts itself down, stops moaning and throws itself with enthusiasm into the new opportunities wherever they are. A lot of energy, enthusiasm and determined leadership will be required. The world will go on whatever happens. Dawn will break on the day after Brexit and we won't be starving , fighting for stocks of pills or suffering gridlock around our ports and airports all summer 2019.. There will be hiccups, eagerly seized upon by swathes of the media. Some things will need quick resolute solutions. Those who actually run the businesses, logistics, border controls, customs and other things which run 24/7/365 will sort it out. Politicians, most of whom are unfamiliar with the mechanics of doing or running anything will be superfluous. No doubt they will make statements though.

In the overall scheme of things Brexit will turn out to be a hiccup. There's far more to worry about than that.  Think about the very real prospect of a government led by Corbyn, McDonnell and comrades from the far left. Old fashioned union power, inflation and high interest rates would return and investors would flee. It would be way beyond any previous British experience of socialism. This would be a government which actually doesn't like large groups of  voters at all. The label "Tory Scum" , didn't come from nowhere. The Corbynistas wouldn't be about soft fuzzy socialism. They would be about the  state spending and taxing like never before.

Against this merry scenario five or ten years of all that and Brexit fades almost into insignificance.Got any savings anyone? Earn more than about £40k a year? Aspirations for yourself, family, future generations?  Think about it.

Saturday 3 November 2018

Twiga is back!

First an apology to our loyal Followers for a long silence. A lot of what's been going on and the commentaries on it have been too irritating to encourage further contributions. Waves of drivel, uninformed and wisdom- free speculation and downright disinformation have broken upon us leading to a reaction of "Wake me when it's over".

That said, with March 2019 not far away and some unsung good things happening now seems the time to renew our musings, head shaking as well as optimism to try to float some different and more balanced perspectives. Obviously this won't see Twiga employed by the BBC but that was never going to happen anyway.