Just two and a half weeks now to the UK's General Election. It's nineteen days from today.
Well, mercifully a bit less than that in some ways. he coming week from May 22nd is on the face of it a normal one,- that means four and a half or five working days followed by a Saturday lull and then the deluge of Sunday papers trying to fill their pages with new insights, or which there are really very few.
That's this week. Though not quite. Half term starts on Friday.That means much of the electorate, -especially the better off segments ,- will be turning away from normal life to go to Speech Day and maybe not bothering so much with the weekend media.
The next week starts on 29th May with a Bank Holiday. Many don't bother to watch the box or more than skim a newspaper. Then the next four days are taken up with, especially for the better off, family trips at home or abroad, Then when they get back on Sunday June 4th there are just three more campaigning days to go. With all this distraction June 8th May have a very clever date to choose for an election if you are a Conservative starting with a big lead in the polls ,want to limit the time really available for its erosion and find a moment when many will have had a bit of a holiday which tends to lean them towards the status quo.
That leaves the third week,from Monday June 4th as a three day final sprint to the line. Suddenly the 19 days of assumed voter attention have become a lot fewer. For some maybe only seven or so.
That being the timeline how's it all going ? The polls all point to a substantial Tory win but are we in for a surprise on the night when the exit poll flashes up at 22.01 with a red splurge and Labour in the lead? Or a potential majority coalition of who with whom ? The Tories have only got to lose some of the seats gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 and fail to make the assumed gains in Labour's northern heartlands. Scotland ,where they are led by the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson might help out a bit with a few SNP scalps but Mrs May could still be in trouble..
The Tories's strongest suit is to keep the focus on it being purely and simply about the choice of leader, not Brexit or the domestic issues, especially the NHS. Labour's is the reverse. No surprise therefore that they they are working overtime to keep the spotlight on schools and hospitals and now pensioners and to present Jeremy as a nice harmless sort of guy who's on your side unless at £80k you happen to earn just more than an MP's approximately £ 74,000 salary. Unsurprisingly evil fat cats start just above that line. The unattractive hard left posse around and behind Corbyn are largely kept out of sight. It's not sensible to scare the horses. Indeed if voters had the remotest idea of the economic and other mayhem this bunch might inflict on the nation should they win most would be downright terrified.
The Labour party is being pretty successful in putting over the soft Jeremy image to the many while to the hardline few and members of the protest industry still majoring on the clenched fist,angry Corbyn the revolutionary as seen at the staged ,bussed in, town hall meetings of the heavies and the cheerless cheerleaders waving placards about the NHS and Tory Scum. Another line being skilfully exploited by the left is that since the polls predict there is no chance of Corbyn becoming PM it's safe to vote for him as an anti establishment protest and to clip Mrs May's wings a bit even if you really don't want him to win. We've been there before. That's the way that Corbyn was first nominated for the Labour leadership,- achieved with minutes to spare,- and the Leave camp pulled in more votes than expected in the Brexit referendum. In both cases people signed up against what they really wanted just to give establishments a bit of a wakeup kicking. A Remain majority was believed to be certain in the Brexit referendum so some voters reckoned they could give the establishment a kicking by voting Leave without any risk of that happening. Unfortunately no estimate has been produced ,or at least published, on the number of such tactical votes . (What's happened to real political analysis?) Take away that factor and real preferences may have been 50/50 or a clear Remain majority.That's one reason why Remainers have been looking for some way to trigger a second go at it.
So,,.. for Conservative/May supporters there are some nailbiting "Wish it was all over " days and nights to go. For the Labour/Corbyn camp there's a lot to play for and many of the things they say are coming over as more down to earth and resonating better with the electors than the Tory messages and style. June 9th could still see Britain's first PM to wear one of those funny hats usually decked out with a red star.
Well, mercifully a bit less than that in some ways. he coming week from May 22nd is on the face of it a normal one,- that means four and a half or five working days followed by a Saturday lull and then the deluge of Sunday papers trying to fill their pages with new insights, or which there are really very few.
That's this week. Though not quite. Half term starts on Friday.That means much of the electorate, -especially the better off segments ,- will be turning away from normal life to go to Speech Day and maybe not bothering so much with the weekend media.
The next week starts on 29th May with a Bank Holiday. Many don't bother to watch the box or more than skim a newspaper. Then the next four days are taken up with, especially for the better off, family trips at home or abroad, Then when they get back on Sunday June 4th there are just three more campaigning days to go. With all this distraction June 8th May have a very clever date to choose for an election if you are a Conservative starting with a big lead in the polls ,want to limit the time really available for its erosion and find a moment when many will have had a bit of a holiday which tends to lean them towards the status quo.
That leaves the third week,from Monday June 4th as a three day final sprint to the line. Suddenly the 19 days of assumed voter attention have become a lot fewer. For some maybe only seven or so.
That being the timeline how's it all going ? The polls all point to a substantial Tory win but are we in for a surprise on the night when the exit poll flashes up at 22.01 with a red splurge and Labour in the lead? Or a potential majority coalition of who with whom ? The Tories have only got to lose some of the seats gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 and fail to make the assumed gains in Labour's northern heartlands. Scotland ,where they are led by the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson might help out a bit with a few SNP scalps but Mrs May could still be in trouble..
The Tories's strongest suit is to keep the focus on it being purely and simply about the choice of leader, not Brexit or the domestic issues, especially the NHS. Labour's is the reverse. No surprise therefore that they they are working overtime to keep the spotlight on schools and hospitals and now pensioners and to present Jeremy as a nice harmless sort of guy who's on your side unless at £80k you happen to earn just more than an MP's approximately £ 74,000 salary. Unsurprisingly evil fat cats start just above that line. The unattractive hard left posse around and behind Corbyn are largely kept out of sight. It's not sensible to scare the horses. Indeed if voters had the remotest idea of the economic and other mayhem this bunch might inflict on the nation should they win most would be downright terrified.
The Labour party is being pretty successful in putting over the soft Jeremy image to the many while to the hardline few and members of the protest industry still majoring on the clenched fist,angry Corbyn the revolutionary as seen at the staged ,bussed in, town hall meetings of the heavies and the cheerless cheerleaders waving placards about the NHS and Tory Scum. Another line being skilfully exploited by the left is that since the polls predict there is no chance of Corbyn becoming PM it's safe to vote for him as an anti establishment protest and to clip Mrs May's wings a bit even if you really don't want him to win. We've been there before. That's the way that Corbyn was first nominated for the Labour leadership,- achieved with minutes to spare,- and the Leave camp pulled in more votes than expected in the Brexit referendum. In both cases people signed up against what they really wanted just to give establishments a bit of a wakeup kicking. A Remain majority was believed to be certain in the Brexit referendum so some voters reckoned they could give the establishment a kicking by voting Leave without any risk of that happening. Unfortunately no estimate has been produced ,or at least published, on the number of such tactical votes . (What's happened to real political analysis?) Take away that factor and real preferences may have been 50/50 or a clear Remain majority.That's one reason why Remainers have been looking for some way to trigger a second go at it.
So,,.. for Conservative/May supporters there are some nailbiting "Wish it was all over " days and nights to go. For the Labour/Corbyn camp there's a lot to play for and many of the things they say are coming over as more down to earth and resonating better with the electors than the Tory messages and style. June 9th could still see Britain's first PM to wear one of those funny hats usually decked out with a red star.
