Saturday 12 November 2016

They're at it again. EU leaders Trump and Brexit hysterics.

The normal international response to anybody winning the leadership of their home nation in a democratic election is for foreign leaders, to signal their congratulations, good wishes and hopes for mutually beneficial good relations.

Maybe it's because yesterday was Friday and for those Europeans who hadn't headed home early, the lunches were long and er, well, long, That towering diplomat, Jean Claude Juncker, former Finance and then Prime Minister of Luxembourg (pop  574,000 that's between Belfast , Britain;s 12th largest city at 600,000 and  13th placed Leicester at 534,000) couldn't resist strutting his stuff with the dire warning that the EU would have to teach Mr Trump what Europe is and how it works" bearing in mind that "We will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know". That's fighting stuff and not likely to play well among those likely to be running the world's most powerful nation in a couple of months time. A cheery, "Do come over and see us anytime" note might have been a better line to take. It might have avoided Mr Juncker and friends being taught some rather uncomfortable home truths about how they are seen by the new order on the other side of the Atlantic.

While Juncker was dishing this out about the Americans the fickle British were being warned by Germany's Mr Schafer that rather than moving to the front of queue for a free trade deal with the US the arrival of the new regime somehow made the prospect of such a deal even further away. This sounds more like a veiled "Don't push yourselves too much you Brits. We know where you live " threat than anything more rational.

Between them the two gentleman did even more yesterday to convince the Brexiters that they've got it right and the UK, in the nick of time, is escaping a union in which it was never really welcome and never really wished it well.There was a tremendous opportunity for the EU, in the wake of the British referendum to say "Let's look at all this again" and come up with a looser and more flexible formula which would keep "The Project" on the rails and Britain, and potentially others, more loosely in it.

Needless to say, in view of the personalities of the drivers, that hasn't happened. They may be men (yes, almost all men) of Europe but they are not people of the wider world  Within the narrow confines of their view and experience a rather unpleasant and insular "They must be punished" attitude prevails . That's meant to deter any others who might have the effrontery to wish to escape the bureaucratic of the Commission in particular. Those British who voted "Leave" will be saying "Phew". A second referendum could produce an even bigger majority in favour of heading for the door. That would for many , especially in the London political bubble, be yet another in the current run of electoral surprises.

Talking of those don't forget one Corbyn may well be rubbing his hands together on this dreary winter's afternoon and muttering " 2020, Maybe, just maybe....".

Friday 11 November 2016


The big night... We were right.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

The year of Boaty McBoatface rolled on and the similarities with the UK Brexit Referendum night were remarkable. Viewing started off comfortably enough with Hillary forecast to win. It was going to be an evening of calm and quiet relief. The first few results were predictable and safe.

Then in Britain came the midnight Sunderland bombshell. In the USA it was the 0315 NBC prediction that Trump would get Ohio. Moods changed . People sat up. Some stopped celebrating. Others started. The plates were moving in the unexpected direction.  Levers started to be thrown, brakes screeched. Time Magazine had to pull its already printed Clinton in the White House supplement. From then on it was like sliding down an icy bank,- all one way . As in the UK turnout and is demographics had been king (too low from Clinton supporters, higher than expected from Trump's) and the numbers just couldn't add up for the Democrats. The same thing had happened for the SNP in the Scottish independence referendum a year earlier when too many Glasgweigans stayed at home while  much higher percentage of Edinburgh  "Better Togethers"  hit the streets. Like the British EU Remainers they had taken too many loyalties for granted,  especially in the rustbucket and west cities and in some country areas. In Florida not enough blacks or hispanics upon who there were great hopes turned out to counterbalance the large white retiree population. Trump's camp had plotted the holes in the Democrats support well. Why else hold the last rally in Michigan?

So that's all over and of course the inquests are in full swing. Plenty of pages of recycled wisdom yet to come before the Sunday papers are put to rest. After that other news might have a chance again. Is Syria still there/

Now comes the global stampede to conclude  "What does it mean for us? How can we get the best tout of it?" Predictably European elites in particular are reaching for the smelling salts, or in some well known EU cases surely the best claret bottles. An emergency meeting of Foreign Ministers has been called for this weekend, when conveniently Boris Johnson has a number or Remembrance Day engagements, remembering of course all those who fell.... defending fellow Europeans. Never mind, we know they are grateful really. Mr Juncker, who maybe has visions of a nice braid covered military uniform covered in medals for valour in the face of noisy assaults by Mr Farage and Mr Hollande, leader of one of Europe's finest fighting nations, are renewing calls for a European Army under the overall plot to hasten "ever closer union", one of those things which made the Brits head for the door. There has been no stocktaking after the Brexit vote . No "What can we do to keep them in?" there's no sign yet of what Europe might to to impress Mr Trump of its worth and good intentions as an ally..

A idea of a European army separate from NATO (and the US part of that organisation) is almost laughable. It may be giving Moscow, Beijing and some others are few smiles and laughs but nobody's hair will be standing on end.

Europe's challenge  is to learn to live with and get closer to whatever new America emerges once Mr Trump is in the White House. At the moment it seems the Euro-elite with their tunnel vision see the new US regime as a threat to be distanced from rather than embraced. Underlying this is the illusion that the EU might somehow emerge as a superpower. Without the USA in NATO and without the UK, Europe has the weapons and people to hold out against a serious Russian nuclear led or backed attack for probably less than a week. Once its limited quantities of front line aircraft, ships and land armies were taken out in the first or second waves of attack it would be game over. The state of its main cities would then would make Aleppo look like a glittering utopia. That's the reality.


Tuesday 8 November 2016

Today's big match,- The US Election.

There will be sighs of relief when this carryon, started over a year ago, designed to cater for the days before the telegraph or trans continental train, rumbles to its conclusion.

Like in a bad western the two candidates are today clawing their way across the dusty open ground to see who can reach the one gun first. By tomorrow morning we will know. But then the drama is still not quite over. Unlike in UK elections where it's furniture vans within the hour, the same day walk or drive of shame, in the US there are another couple of months before the bands play, the winner gets the key to the nice house and the loser rides out of the picture.- at least for the moment.

The result? This is the year of electoral upsets. It began in the UK with Boaty McBoatface. Never intended to be a winner, Boaty was. The voters just said "We are fed up with establishment names. We'll vote for a nonsense". Dave should have noted it ,shivered and done something about it but it's unlikely he even read the tea leaves, and linked the vote what was going to happen next in the great Brexit bakeoff.  Perhaps he looked in Earl Grey not the more mystifying builders pot. Even on Referendum night itself "Remain" was expected  to win. Then in just four hours from midnight to 4am  a narrow 52/40 victory for "Leave" revealed itself . By breakfast time Dave was outside on the street abdicating.  Nobody has yet tried to calculate how much of the vote was a protest "We don't like the establishment and it's not working for us" vote largely from poorer whites but some of it was and that rather than the issue may have won the day.

Tonight the assumptions are that Hillary Clinton, despite what looked like an intended FBI killer intervention and too late withdrawal ,will just make it thanks partly to winning the early votes, especially the southern Hispanics. But then, but then... the Trump campaign, like Brexit, has been resonating with the poorer white voters who feel left behind by the whole US political machine and establishment. If that means these people come out today and others stay at home, Wednesday could see a triumphant Trump, wall- building spade in one hand and the nuclear trigger in the other.

It's not over until it's over.