Saturday 12 November 2016

They're at it again. EU leaders Trump and Brexit hysterics.

The normal international response to anybody winning the leadership of their home nation in a democratic election is for foreign leaders, to signal their congratulations, good wishes and hopes for mutually beneficial good relations.

Maybe it's because yesterday was Friday and for those Europeans who hadn't headed home early, the lunches were long and er, well, long, That towering diplomat, Jean Claude Juncker, former Finance and then Prime Minister of Luxembourg (pop  574,000 that's between Belfast , Britain;s 12th largest city at 600,000 and  13th placed Leicester at 534,000) couldn't resist strutting his stuff with the dire warning that the EU would have to teach Mr Trump what Europe is and how it works" bearing in mind that "We will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know". That's fighting stuff and not likely to play well among those likely to be running the world's most powerful nation in a couple of months time. A cheery, "Do come over and see us anytime" note might have been a better line to take. It might have avoided Mr Juncker and friends being taught some rather uncomfortable home truths about how they are seen by the new order on the other side of the Atlantic.

While Juncker was dishing this out about the Americans the fickle British were being warned by Germany's Mr Schafer that rather than moving to the front of queue for a free trade deal with the US the arrival of the new regime somehow made the prospect of such a deal even further away. This sounds more like a veiled "Don't push yourselves too much you Brits. We know where you live " threat than anything more rational.

Between them the two gentleman did even more yesterday to convince the Brexiters that they've got it right and the UK, in the nick of time, is escaping a union in which it was never really welcome and never really wished it well.There was a tremendous opportunity for the EU, in the wake of the British referendum to say "Let's look at all this again" and come up with a looser and more flexible formula which would keep "The Project" on the rails and Britain, and potentially others, more loosely in it.

Needless to say, in view of the personalities of the drivers, that hasn't happened. They may be men (yes, almost all men) of Europe but they are not people of the wider world  Within the narrow confines of their view and experience a rather unpleasant and insular "They must be punished" attitude prevails . That's meant to deter any others who might have the effrontery to wish to escape the bureaucratic of the Commission in particular. Those British who voted "Leave" will be saying "Phew". A second referendum could produce an even bigger majority in favour of heading for the door. That would for many , especially in the London political bubble, be yet another in the current run of electoral surprises.

Talking of those don't forget one Corbyn may well be rubbing his hands together on this dreary winter's afternoon and muttering " 2020, Maybe, just maybe....".

Friday 11 November 2016


The big night... We were right.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

The year of Boaty McBoatface rolled on and the similarities with the UK Brexit Referendum night were remarkable. Viewing started off comfortably enough with Hillary forecast to win. It was going to be an evening of calm and quiet relief. The first few results were predictable and safe.

Then in Britain came the midnight Sunderland bombshell. In the USA it was the 0315 NBC prediction that Trump would get Ohio. Moods changed . People sat up. Some stopped celebrating. Others started. The plates were moving in the unexpected direction.  Levers started to be thrown, brakes screeched. Time Magazine had to pull its already printed Clinton in the White House supplement. From then on it was like sliding down an icy bank,- all one way . As in the UK turnout and is demographics had been king (too low from Clinton supporters, higher than expected from Trump's) and the numbers just couldn't add up for the Democrats. The same thing had happened for the SNP in the Scottish independence referendum a year earlier when too many Glasgweigans stayed at home while  much higher percentage of Edinburgh  "Better Togethers"  hit the streets. Like the British EU Remainers they had taken too many loyalties for granted,  especially in the rustbucket and west cities and in some country areas. In Florida not enough blacks or hispanics upon who there were great hopes turned out to counterbalance the large white retiree population. Trump's camp had plotted the holes in the Democrats support well. Why else hold the last rally in Michigan?

So that's all over and of course the inquests are in full swing. Plenty of pages of recycled wisdom yet to come before the Sunday papers are put to rest. After that other news might have a chance again. Is Syria still there/

Now comes the global stampede to conclude  "What does it mean for us? How can we get the best tout of it?" Predictably European elites in particular are reaching for the smelling salts, or in some well known EU cases surely the best claret bottles. An emergency meeting of Foreign Ministers has been called for this weekend, when conveniently Boris Johnson has a number or Remembrance Day engagements, remembering of course all those who fell.... defending fellow Europeans. Never mind, we know they are grateful really. Mr Juncker, who maybe has visions of a nice braid covered military uniform covered in medals for valour in the face of noisy assaults by Mr Farage and Mr Hollande, leader of one of Europe's finest fighting nations, are renewing calls for a European Army under the overall plot to hasten "ever closer union", one of those things which made the Brits head for the door. There has been no stocktaking after the Brexit vote . No "What can we do to keep them in?" there's no sign yet of what Europe might to to impress Mr Trump of its worth and good intentions as an ally..

A idea of a European army separate from NATO (and the US part of that organisation) is almost laughable. It may be giving Moscow, Beijing and some others are few smiles and laughs but nobody's hair will be standing on end.

Europe's challenge  is to learn to live with and get closer to whatever new America emerges once Mr Trump is in the White House. At the moment it seems the Euro-elite with their tunnel vision see the new US regime as a threat to be distanced from rather than embraced. Underlying this is the illusion that the EU might somehow emerge as a superpower. Without the USA in NATO and without the UK, Europe has the weapons and people to hold out against a serious Russian nuclear led or backed attack for probably less than a week. Once its limited quantities of front line aircraft, ships and land armies were taken out in the first or second waves of attack it would be game over. The state of its main cities would then would make Aleppo look like a glittering utopia. That's the reality.


Tuesday 8 November 2016

Today's big match,- The US Election.

There will be sighs of relief when this carryon, started over a year ago, designed to cater for the days before the telegraph or trans continental train, rumbles to its conclusion.

Like in a bad western the two candidates are today clawing their way across the dusty open ground to see who can reach the one gun first. By tomorrow morning we will know. But then the drama is still not quite over. Unlike in UK elections where it's furniture vans within the hour, the same day walk or drive of shame, in the US there are another couple of months before the bands play, the winner gets the key to the nice house and the loser rides out of the picture.- at least for the moment.

The result? This is the year of electoral upsets. It began in the UK with Boaty McBoatface. Never intended to be a winner, Boaty was. The voters just said "We are fed up with establishment names. We'll vote for a nonsense". Dave should have noted it ,shivered and done something about it but it's unlikely he even read the tea leaves, and linked the vote what was going to happen next in the great Brexit bakeoff.  Perhaps he looked in Earl Grey not the more mystifying builders pot. Even on Referendum night itself "Remain" was expected  to win. Then in just four hours from midnight to 4am  a narrow 52/40 victory for "Leave" revealed itself . By breakfast time Dave was outside on the street abdicating.  Nobody has yet tried to calculate how much of the vote was a protest "We don't like the establishment and it's not working for us" vote largely from poorer whites but some of it was and that rather than the issue may have won the day.

Tonight the assumptions are that Hillary Clinton, despite what looked like an intended FBI killer intervention and too late withdrawal ,will just make it thanks partly to winning the early votes, especially the southern Hispanics. But then, but then... the Trump campaign, like Brexit, has been resonating with the poorer white voters who feel left behind by the whole US political machine and establishment. If that means these people come out today and others stay at home, Wednesday could see a triumphant Trump, wall- building spade in one hand and the nuclear trigger in the other.

It's not over until it's over.

Tuesday 25 October 2016

Heathrow (deferred) decision....Zac's toys in corner photo op.

Zac Goldsmith, unsuccesful candidate to be London's mayor, is to throw his toys in a corner and resign as a Conservative MP in protest at Heathrow being expanded in the national interest rather than those of his own noisier local constituents.

So where's the bad news?

Friday 29 July 2016

Slalled on the line,- Hinckley Point.


The signing venue was ready, the champagne on ice . The Chinese were in town, the French all set to cross the Channel , EDF having finally signed off the deal, and suddenly the bride in this case the new lady in Number 10 gets cold feet and calls the whole thing off,- for now at least.

What happened?

Probably two things.

First the projected building costs and then the very way over market rates charges needed to cover them over succeeding decades may may have given , if not nightmares, the irresistable urge to halt the seemingly unstoppable horses. Whereas the glistening eyed Osborne had been totally smitten by the Chinese apparent financial and technical offerings and on his visits to the country looked very much the innocent abroad, Mrs May is much less impressionable by guards of honour, banquets or anything else. The glistening eye is replaced by a much steelier one.

Secondly Chinese involvement in the (now dated) technology and its control throughout its life may have raised her security antennae. Who could possibly believe, as did other British government purchasers of telecommunications equipment that the whole thing would not come riddled with bugs that could be accessed by the Chinese state if they so desired. The notion that the suppliers are at arms length from the country's security or other political services is naive and stupid. There is no such separation in the way China operates.

So there we are. Despite it being a minute to midnight the lady has seized control of events and crucially the timescale. She will not be bulldozed into anything. A review lasting through till the autumn is entitrely sensible.  A lot of people who had thought they could look forward to long summer holidays without a care in the world are having their illusions shattered. And no she is not another Margaret Thatcher. She is her very own Theresa May and she will do things her way.

Footnote:  The unions have raised a howl of anguish about what is at least a delay (No it is not dithering).is a good sign that the decision to conduct a gross error check is absolutely right.

Saturday 16 April 2016

Junior Doctors ,- What part of "No" is difficult to understand.?

The junior doctor's leader Johann Malawana has appealed that paediatric units should not be included in their total walkouts has fallen on deaf ears.

According to The Times a spokesman for the BMA has said "No junior doctor wants to have to take any action (funny how all unions say that when they are about to take their members out the door) , but they have  already done everything in their power to make their voices heard. By continuing to ignore them the government has left them with no alternative"(also a pretty stock unionspeak  statement).

The fact is the government has listened to them,negotiated, made some concessions (more money) and now says "No more". That's not unreasonable.

The union position seems to be that unless they say "Yes" (more money) , then they haven't listened.

The idea that the parties should always "get around the table" comes from the Harold Wilson beer and sandwiches era so beloved of the union heavies. It meant that whether the cause/claim was reasonable or unreasonable there would always be a deaL No surprise that there were a lot of claims, a lot of strikes and a lot of  ultimately expensive evenings at Number 10. The notion  of a Prime Minister getting involved was absurd. Equally so for  CEOs in the private sector. Once unions can get to the top that's where they and everything will go.  Everyone lower down the tree is disenfranchised and may as well not bother to try to negotiate or impose a settlement lower at a sensible working level.

It seems that Mr Malawana may be discovering how difficult it is to put the genie back in the bottle once it as been encouraged to come out all guns blazing. His committee, presumably a rather unsmiling hardcore of activists is developing a life of its own and in the process running the risk of the so far onside,- one might say inexplicably gullible if Mr Hunt's own PR wasn't poor enough to perhaps excuse it public,-beginning to say they don't like what's going on after all because their children or grannies have suffered problems during all this sanctimonious carryon.

All that apart, the junior doctors' reckless abandonment of their core professionalism risks not just lives but the whole way they are seen for evermore. Can they really afford or do they want to risk perceived trust, integrity and capability just for a few more percentage points more in their already far from impoverished pockets?  Professionalism is under attack from mercenaries all the time. It would be sad to see the doctors led into being just another example of the latter. They will have to make their own minds up though. It's not something the brothers lose much sleep about.


Wednesday 13 April 2016

Junior Doctors say new deal is "Unfair, Unsafe". Is it?

"Unfair, Unsafe " are two words parotted and placarded at many of the junior doctor's demos. One might be more inclined to believe them if the simple fact is that if a bit more money is offered these words will magically disappear and the deal be presumably both fair (ie they've got more money) and safe which then by definition can't have been a worry in the first place.

Strange