Sunday 22 January 2017

It's nearly February.

With Christmas now four weeks behind us a moment to catch breath perhaps. or maybe not.

We won't embark on yet another Trump commentary other than to note that he was elected by the US' system of democracy (all those electoral colleges) and it is therefore entirely out of place,and irrelevant, for the disappointed in both the US and more especially abroad, to demonstrate and shreik foul. People voting for someone or something you don't like doesn't invalidate their eligibility to do so, whatever the so called liberal (but actually highly illiberal and intolerant) left may think. For opponents it is much more productive to accept the setback,figure out what they failed to do to avoid it and set about making sure by thought word and deeds they get their prospectus right next time. The same goes for Brexit and the Bremoaners. Like it or not,rightly or wrongly, the electorate has spoken.there is nothing to be gained by not energetically getting on with the new task. The same goes for the moribund European Commission. Where's the new plan , the new proposition to keep the UK in? Currently the grey men (there don't seem to be many women there) of Brussels show no sign of coming up with one and their mindset makes it unlikely that they will. To the Brexiteers another good reason for leaving.

The media is in a febrile state, its needs for 24/7 Breaking New headlines not being fed at home by a canny Theresa may who they continually slag off for not revealing her innermost or even outermost thoughts or by anything good they can say about "the Donald". That leaves just the NHS, now going,like most other northern European health services going through its annual seasonal crisis. Shouts for more money cone from every side but hardly a word on what it's for. The NHS needs root and branch flow analysis to establish what's getting in its way, clogging up processes, causing delays and stopping the patient getting swift ad successful treatment. Clinically it is usually good to excellent, It's the processes and some mindsets that get in the way, - and ultimately cause too many unnecessary premature deaths.

We will also skip over Davos, the once useful exclusive gathering but now, post populism, seriously dated spectacle of too much Dad dancing and money making grandstanding by failed politicians and others, charging absurd amounts to share their "wisdom" with other no-hopers. Time the resort went back to concentrating on real skiers.

Back to the headline. With 22 days of January gone and winterwise just 28 days of February to contend with, the very first tentative green shoots of Spring can't come soon enough. And hopefully with them some more positive thinking about making changed circumstances work. Enough of "looking into" " Further studies" and the rest ,some real delivery would be good now. We must do better than spending 40 years figuring out how to get a national trunk road past Stonehenge.

Monday 2 January 2017

Happy New Year!

Well, we've made it. 2016 has finally slid into history and  we are into 2017. A relief or a "Oh God are we really?" moment?

A year ago 2016 was looking like fairly calm water. Abroad Hillary Clinton was headed for the White House if only on a "It can never be Trump" ticket. The EU was looking increasingly cosily moribund, ignoring anything about reform while visibly filling its face with goodies paid for by member states. Here our Dave had put the country on a road to a EU Referendum which it was presumed would go for comfortable stay in rather than risk the unknown upheaval of leaving. So warm slippers -comfortable about winning was our man that he didn't bother to set a 60/40 bar as being required for constitutional change, something he could reasonably have done.

So what happened? We, but more especially Dave and Hillary, should have read the tealeaves of the Boaty McBoatface fiasco. Proposals for serious names for a new research vessel were rejected by a truculent online electorate in favour of Boaty McBoatface. One can excuse Hillary for not being aware of anything happening on this side of the Atlantic but poor old Dave, to whom the world beyond the narrow triangle of West London-Oxford- Cotswolds often seemed to be a bit of a mystery, might at least have been warned by one of his minions that the natives seemed to a bit restless out there. Until around midnight of 23/24 June (The referendum closed at 10pm on 23rd)  Dave had seen a fairly smooth ride through till whenever before the 2020 General Election he chose to give way, probably to George Osborne. Then with the first results from the North East and the South the maths started to wobble. More than expected northerners were voting for "Leave" and fewer than expected counterbalancing southerners (where the Conservatives had hardly bothered to campaign) were voting "Remain". Dave, who had promised to stay on as PM and manage whatever the outcome , seemingly suddenly got a touch of the "Why should I do all the hard work?" syndrome and shortly after 8am quit. There's a stayer for you. He did say though that he would remain as MP for Witney and serve its people, something he soon decided wasn't worth the candle either so he bailed out of that too. Now he can fly BA instead of EasyJet. So much for those who expect a sense of public duty in their politicians. Disappointing. To many the man left the stage with no legacy and they can hardly remember he was even there.

No surprise then that over in the USA whose whole tortuous , energy sapping and expensive  electoral process is based on the days of travel on horseback or the early railroads, the electorate was also getting restive and unenthusiastic about entrenched elites. Clinton's campaign was lacklustre, Her appearances  seemed tired ,were formulaeic, down to the guaranteed every time pointing into the crowd at imaginary recognised old friends ("See.I belong around here.I know people") and uninspiring. As in the UK it also didn't recognise the disenchantment and powerlessness felt in the rust bucket zones like Michigan where Trump wound up his campaign so she didn't give them the cuddles she should have. Where were her advisors? Like Dave's presumably in the same rarified cuckoolands as  their leader so just not picking up the vibes that Trump's more earthy campaign worker ants did. To the disenchanted, the disenfranchised or just the simply bored, the arrival of a glitzy cowboy on horseback, firing off in all directions, promised at least some excitement and a kick in the establishmentt's groin so to hell with the risk. They voted for The Donald on November 8th. Again the US system being tied to the horse and the railway, unlike the UK,  America does not go for a sudden death handover and a walk of shame the day after the election.While allowing time for the new man or woman and spouse to clip clop or slowly click clack across the continent, the outgoing pair have time to arrange their own furniture vans and time and method of departure while the incomer can sort out how many Rockettes, pole dancers or whatever will perform at the pastiche handover ceremonies on January 20th. (Note: Only the British know how to do proper ,tasteful ,handover ceremonies.We have form and unequalled experience in the art. We probably did a good one for American independence).

By February of this new year, 2017, when most Brits should be back from the Christmas break, the world will be dominated by Trump, Putin and Kim Jong-Un. The Chinese will continue their economic colonisation wherever they can and ruffle Asian feathers by building things on rocks in the China Sea. The EU will continue snoozing its way to the next claret round under the administrative prickly non leadership of Jean-Claude Juncker .Here at home Britain's media will be tearing its hair out because of Mrs May's refusal to be on the box every five minutes feeling everybody's pain about anything at all and her refusal to reveal her hand in the potentially tortuous Brexit negotiations. How could she be so insensitive to public opinion? If she felt she had to increase her majority via a snap General Election and the maths played the same sort of tricks as they did in 2016, what would we get next? Comrade Jeremy? If that doesn't make you shudder ,consider this. Four years,- or even a year,- ago,- nobody would have given Trump or Brexit a chance. If the Tories, who have the extremely difficult task of achieving a successful Brexit, something they never wanted in the first place, come to grief and the economy is all over the place with inflation, more devaluation, higher interest rates, higher taxes negative equity in house prices,- any of that or more,- just who would/will people vote for?  You saw that here first.

Happy New Year!