Friday, 9 January 2015

Dave to miss debate?

The news that David Cameron won't engage in any pre-election televised debates between the main political party heads (We can't really use the word leaders) unless the extra terrestrial Greens are included as a counter balance to UKIP's Nigel Farage comes as no surprise.

He seems to think any excuse will do.

Why bother with excuses though?  He should just say he doesn't want to do it because he is a pretty hopeless debater. He's OK, if wooden, at delivering pre-scripted and rehearsed speeches, often still relying on notes and autocues but he isn't good at the cut and thrust of spontaneous repartee. His real fear is not the Wallace-like miserabilist Ed who includes the class warfare stuff " For the many, not the few" in set pieces peppered with "hard working families" (why not singles?) in all he says. As far as most voters are concerned Dave and Ed are inner London political elite, alias the the speaking version of a heavy sedative. Both speak Martian and neither is really comfortable with talking to or mixing with the "ordinary people" about whom they talk so much.

 Nor is he or anyone worried about having to say "I agree with Nick" this time around.

The real problem for Dave, and to an extent Ed, is Nigel Farage. Here is a man with an armory of pre -prepared thrusts which he can deliver at will as occasion demands. He can think on his feet, repel and ridicule any assault and come over as the man in the bar with a pint in one hand and a politically incorrect fag in the other. Being savaged by Nigel and then kicked in the other Eds by opportunistic fratricidal Ed and hand wringing Nick when he's on the floor is not something Dave fancies,- especially on three occasions and multiple times within each.

If Dave wants to move on to Nigel turf, he  needs to reject the idea of televised debates by getting honest and say " I'm not crazy. Everyone knows I'm lousy at debates and don't enjoy them for a minute.They are just a piece of theatre like the weekly PMQs. I'm happy though to be grilled by Andrew Marr or anyone else in places where I feel more comfortable and can give more useful answers."

Unfortunately the chances of  our man having the courage to say just that are almost zero. That's why Farage is such a threat. He won't necessarily get enough votes to win many seats but he could split the right's votes in enough Tory seats to let Ed slip through the railings and into Number 10 as leader of the largest single party even though the majority don't want him or it. Just as in the Labour leadership election in fact. We could be facing the most undemocratic result ever of a General Election. Ed himself is said to believe that 35% of the vote will do it for him.

Back to the debates though. Our prediction is that one way or the other reluctant Dave will be forced to join Ed, Nick and Nige on a stage or two. He'd better start thinking now about how he will appear delighted to be there before Nige wipes the floor with him followed in short order by Ed and Nick too in acts of collateral verbal violence before they get too chirpy about it.

Footnote: The Oxford Union is not the best place to learn the arts of undergraduate debating. For that he should have gone to Glasgow University whose parliamentary debates have long been in a league of their own. But he wouldn't have known there was a Glasgow University,- or maybe even a Glasgow.