Britain's Conservative Party should be riding high in the poll ratings just now. In the last fortnight it has booted out Abu Hamza, kept in Gary McKinnon who the US wanted to extradite, announced improvements in job creation (above US levels), falling hospital waiting list times, better crime figures while other figures indicate the end of double dip recession if it ever happened at all. September government borrowing was down on last year too. All good stuff which should be causing Tory smiles and further lengthening the habitually miserable faces of the opposition.
Why then have the Tories lost another few percentage points in the opinion polls and why is HerMajesty's opposition getting away with accusing the government of being incompetant, chaotic, out of touch and Prime Minister David Cameron weak?
First offender is the party's hopelessness at PR and presenting its case, especially when it has a good one. Right from the beginning in May 2010 its programme of expenditure "cuts" mislabled as "austerity" was never explained simply and coherantly as part of an overall political philosophy of smaller, though still by no means small, government and the encouragement of a return to self reliance and self respect after decades of increasing ever deepening welfare and government spending dependency. There has never been an all-embracing wrapper in which to enfold all its policies as a coherent whole. Instead too much has appeared uncordinated, piecemeal and reactive rather than visionary. Indeed the word "vision" or notion of "This is where we are going" has been entirely absent . That fact does reflect a failure by the Prime Ministerial team to grasp the basics of winning in politics,- or business,-or more or less anything else.
Second offender is the difficulty of being in a coalition, especially with an increasingly difficult and fractious partner, many of whose members would rather be in bed with the opposition. The LibDems are often, despite their label, extraordinarily illiberal and intolerant, two things which make them much closer to Labour than Conservative ways of life. Cameron has tried hard to bend to give Clegg some much needed successes to show his party but this has not been greatly appreciated or reciprocated. Cameron has also been straightforward about what he can't deliver,-eg House of Lords reform. In response Clegg has been petulant and is set to derail much needed previously agreed and entirely democratic constituency boundary changes and size equalisation before the 2015 General Election.
Third offender and strategicaly the most potent is Labour's brilliance at picking and repeating ad nauseam over and over again at every opportunity and in all sorts of contexts key dog-whistle words which over time take root consciously and subliminally and become accepted as fact. All of its team use the same key words in almost every statement they make. It's an old advertising trick which the Tories , especially the many with a background in PR , should have identified and dealt with but haven't. The tactic is ruthlessly and lethally deployed all the time every week. Brown tried it but failed because he picked strangulated phrases which achieved no resonance. Eds Miliband and Balls, Mrs Balls and the rest are politically cleverer and more succinct. "Out of touch" is a wonderful class loaded phrase with unspoken addon implications about competance, caring, and not sharing the national pain. "Incompetant" has all the subtlety and the menace of an Exocet missile, "For the few not the many" wraps in tax cuts for the better off and so on. Each MP acts as if they have a laminated card with the word(s) of the year, month,week in big bold capitals. They are relentlessly deployed so that they appear to be part of a coherent, consistent platform of opposition. Once up and running they displace the need to do anything about expounding any policies .This enables that powder to be kept dry until close to the next election when emotions are up and running and it becomes too late to examinefor them to be thoroughly examined and for rational judgements to be made away from the immediate battlefield. The whole dog-whistle concept and well cordinated practice is a wonderful trap for the government and electorate alike.
Fourth offender is an example of the success of the third and the unashamed class warfare platform so beloved of Labour Party's main financial sponsors the unreconstituted unions . It is willingly adopted by the ever scowling Ed Miliband. "We are not all in this together" feeds through to an unspoken subtext of "We are victims of the wicked rich and unfeeling upper classes" which in turn , aided by a media always on the hunt for blood and increased sales, fuels hysteria about anything from a Minister who foolishly swears at an unhelpful policeman to the Chancellor seen , shock , horror, travelling in a First Class seat on Standard Class ticket on which his aides have already set about paying the upgrade fee. George Osborne is number 2 in the government. We should be delighted that he is travelling in a comfortable seat. Whether you like him or not he deserves it for spending his life on the underpaid and thankless job he's doing . Sadly unless he's a footballer, lottery winner, or X-factor contestant he is deemed not to be worthy of this more comfortable ride. The politics of envy are close to those of hatred and very dangerous .Amongst other things , particularly to young and impressionable minds ,they plant the notion that real aspiration and success are somehow antisocial and undesirable and at very least attract approbrium. To the Left that may be good. They do well where there is lack of success and government/welfare dependency. They use the class ticket with corrosive and devastating effect to gain votes. The fact that the whole philosophy may discourage able young people from striving to better themselves and reach their full potential and , horror of horrors, even become rich, is of no interest to them. That's what they are about. Their message not that we are all in it together but "bar the rich , we are all victims together". It is is,-for them, -brilliant . For the Tories who haven't got the heavy guns to cope with it, it's currently election-threatening.
The Conservatives' recent successes aren't getting the acknowledgment they deserve. For them they should be on a high or at least the up but thanks to a mix of the four factors above they have been submerged beneath a string of class war nonsenses which have got out of proportion and out of hand. The relentless street fighters opposite are highly successful in peddling theie corrosive messages. The Tories are poor at getting theirs across and giving as good as they get. To win in 2015 the Tories must get much better at the real rough and tumble of strategic and tactical politics . They must become streetwise and develop much better antennae and depth of feeling for and understanding of what is really going on and being said throughout the country at all levels of society. They could also do everyone a favour by dopping the Yah- Boo stuff of the weekly Prime Ministers' Questions knockabout . Once quite amusing (when it was a cleverer battle of wits) ,it has descended into being tedious. The fact is that theTory party and particularly the rather cosy and too exclusive Number 10 inner circle are being seriously outplayed by the hardened bruisers sitting opposite. The polls are showing it.
That's why the Tory Party isn't smiling. Except for Boris of course. He is and he's winning. As a parting thought, could there be a direct relationship between the two things? Smile=winner/win. Frown=loser/lose? That's a different debate though. We'll come back to that.
Why then have the Tories lost another few percentage points in the opinion polls and why is HerMajesty's opposition getting away with accusing the government of being incompetant, chaotic, out of touch and Prime Minister David Cameron weak?
First offender is the party's hopelessness at PR and presenting its case, especially when it has a good one. Right from the beginning in May 2010 its programme of expenditure "cuts" mislabled as "austerity" was never explained simply and coherantly as part of an overall political philosophy of smaller, though still by no means small, government and the encouragement of a return to self reliance and self respect after decades of increasing ever deepening welfare and government spending dependency. There has never been an all-embracing wrapper in which to enfold all its policies as a coherent whole. Instead too much has appeared uncordinated, piecemeal and reactive rather than visionary. Indeed the word "vision" or notion of "This is where we are going" has been entirely absent . That fact does reflect a failure by the Prime Ministerial team to grasp the basics of winning in politics,- or business,-or more or less anything else.
Second offender is the difficulty of being in a coalition, especially with an increasingly difficult and fractious partner, many of whose members would rather be in bed with the opposition. The LibDems are often, despite their label, extraordinarily illiberal and intolerant, two things which make them much closer to Labour than Conservative ways of life. Cameron has tried hard to bend to give Clegg some much needed successes to show his party but this has not been greatly appreciated or reciprocated. Cameron has also been straightforward about what he can't deliver,-eg House of Lords reform. In response Clegg has been petulant and is set to derail much needed previously agreed and entirely democratic constituency boundary changes and size equalisation before the 2015 General Election.
Third offender and strategicaly the most potent is Labour's brilliance at picking and repeating ad nauseam over and over again at every opportunity and in all sorts of contexts key dog-whistle words which over time take root consciously and subliminally and become accepted as fact. All of its team use the same key words in almost every statement they make. It's an old advertising trick which the Tories , especially the many with a background in PR , should have identified and dealt with but haven't. The tactic is ruthlessly and lethally deployed all the time every week. Brown tried it but failed because he picked strangulated phrases which achieved no resonance. Eds Miliband and Balls, Mrs Balls and the rest are politically cleverer and more succinct. "Out of touch" is a wonderful class loaded phrase with unspoken addon implications about competance, caring, and not sharing the national pain. "Incompetant" has all the subtlety and the menace of an Exocet missile, "For the few not the many" wraps in tax cuts for the better off and so on. Each MP acts as if they have a laminated card with the word(s) of the year, month,week in big bold capitals. They are relentlessly deployed so that they appear to be part of a coherent, consistent platform of opposition. Once up and running they displace the need to do anything about expounding any policies .This enables that powder to be kept dry until close to the next election when emotions are up and running and it becomes too late to examinefor them to be thoroughly examined and for rational judgements to be made away from the immediate battlefield. The whole dog-whistle concept and well cordinated practice is a wonderful trap for the government and electorate alike.
Fourth offender is an example of the success of the third and the unashamed class warfare platform so beloved of Labour Party's main financial sponsors the unreconstituted unions . It is willingly adopted by the ever scowling Ed Miliband. "We are not all in this together" feeds through to an unspoken subtext of "We are victims of the wicked rich and unfeeling upper classes" which in turn , aided by a media always on the hunt for blood and increased sales, fuels hysteria about anything from a Minister who foolishly swears at an unhelpful policeman to the Chancellor seen , shock , horror, travelling in a First Class seat on Standard Class ticket on which his aides have already set about paying the upgrade fee. George Osborne is number 2 in the government. We should be delighted that he is travelling in a comfortable seat. Whether you like him or not he deserves it for spending his life on the underpaid and thankless job he's doing . Sadly unless he's a footballer, lottery winner, or X-factor contestant he is deemed not to be worthy of this more comfortable ride. The politics of envy are close to those of hatred and very dangerous .Amongst other things , particularly to young and impressionable minds ,they plant the notion that real aspiration and success are somehow antisocial and undesirable and at very least attract approbrium. To the Left that may be good. They do well where there is lack of success and government/welfare dependency. They use the class ticket with corrosive and devastating effect to gain votes. The fact that the whole philosophy may discourage able young people from striving to better themselves and reach their full potential and , horror of horrors, even become rich, is of no interest to them. That's what they are about. Their message not that we are all in it together but "bar the rich , we are all victims together". It is is,-for them, -brilliant . For the Tories who haven't got the heavy guns to cope with it, it's currently election-threatening.
The Conservatives' recent successes aren't getting the acknowledgment they deserve. For them they should be on a high or at least the up but thanks to a mix of the four factors above they have been submerged beneath a string of class war nonsenses which have got out of proportion and out of hand. The relentless street fighters opposite are highly successful in peddling theie corrosive messages. The Tories are poor at getting theirs across and giving as good as they get. To win in 2015 the Tories must get much better at the real rough and tumble of strategic and tactical politics . They must become streetwise and develop much better antennae and depth of feeling for and understanding of what is really going on and being said throughout the country at all levels of society. They could also do everyone a favour by dopping the Yah- Boo stuff of the weekly Prime Ministers' Questions knockabout . Once quite amusing (when it was a cleverer battle of wits) ,it has descended into being tedious. The fact is that theTory party and particularly the rather cosy and too exclusive Number 10 inner circle are being seriously outplayed by the hardened bruisers sitting opposite. The polls are showing it.
That's why the Tory Party isn't smiling. Except for Boris of course. He is and he's winning. As a parting thought, could there be a direct relationship between the two things? Smile=winner/win. Frown=loser/lose? That's a different debate though. We'll come back to that.
