The joint Cameron/Salmond agreement on the Scottish independence referendum contains no surprises although at first glance it may seem that Cameron has been outplayed by Salmond . After all, the Scot has got all he demanded and only conceeded in agreeing that there should only be one question and no easy midway option. It will be a simple Yes/No vote in which the winner takes all.
On the face of it that looks like a big gamble by Cameron, maybe a reckless one. Was it ?
The big deal today was winning the argument that there should be only one, yes/no question. This was vital as it leaves the electorate with no easy option and the SNP nowhere to go if they lose the vote. It may look like an ill considered and desparate throw of a gambler , but is it and does it matter to Dave if the referendum does go Salmond's way and Scotland heads off over whichever horizon it chooses?
To reach a conclusion let's look at the other points coming out of the signed document .Salmond seemed to win them all and he was certainly smiling.
-The date of Autumn 2014 could work in Salmond's favour. The vote may well immediately follow the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. If those are anywhere near as succesful as the London Olympics and Scots rally behind them in a state of national positivism and feelings of unity there could be a wave of nationalistic "Go for it" euphoria. Plenty for Salmond to gain here and Cameron can only lose.
- Giving the vote to 16 and 17 year olds is unprecedented in UK elections. You may be able to marry at 16 and repent at leisure but your brain isn't deemed to be adequately developed to make judgments on politics and your MP. The failure rate of mid-teenage marriages may well say the voting age of 18 is indeed correct and proves the point. However, particularly younger voters tend to be idealistic and therefore more likely to vote for independence in Scotland and for left leaning candidates in other elections. Potential double loss to Cameron.
So assuming Cameron hasn't been totally rolled over, what could he be thinking?
- The Scots will vote against independence however Salmond loads the dice so the man may as well be given all he wants so that he has nowhere hide afterwards.
-Despite the posturing, it doesn't matter to the Conservatives if Scotland does become independent. There could actually be at least two bonuses for the party. Firstly, without its traditional Scottish rock solid Labour-voting constituencies, Labour may never again be able to obtain an overall majority at Westminster .Secondly, economically the rest of the UK would be without its heavily welfare and state spending dependent northern neighbour.
-Even if the voting age in all other elections were reduced to 16, the number of additional constituencies gained by Labour would nowhere near cover their losses of Scottish seats, so the Conservative position at Westminster would at least be substantialy enhanced.
This all gives the agreement a different complexion. Despite the unionist posturing the Conservative leadership and policymakers may not mind whether the electorate choose independence or not. Either way the party wins. Either the Tories will have taken the long running issue by the scruff of the neck, put everything on the line and won , thereby kicking the SNP into the wilderness (for which Labour would also be duly grateful) and coming out of it heroically just a few months before the 2015 General Election. Alternatively if the outcome is independence there are big gains for the party in the new makeup of Westminster. That's called a win-win.
All clear now? Whatever the outcome,the champagne will be cracked open at Number 10 when the referendum results are announced on that night or day in the autumn of 2014. So simple. Cameron will not be losing any sleep tonight.
On the face of it that looks like a big gamble by Cameron, maybe a reckless one. Was it ?
The big deal today was winning the argument that there should be only one, yes/no question. This was vital as it leaves the electorate with no easy option and the SNP nowhere to go if they lose the vote. It may look like an ill considered and desparate throw of a gambler , but is it and does it matter to Dave if the referendum does go Salmond's way and Scotland heads off over whichever horizon it chooses?
To reach a conclusion let's look at the other points coming out of the signed document .Salmond seemed to win them all and he was certainly smiling.
-The date of Autumn 2014 could work in Salmond's favour. The vote may well immediately follow the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. If those are anywhere near as succesful as the London Olympics and Scots rally behind them in a state of national positivism and feelings of unity there could be a wave of nationalistic "Go for it" euphoria. Plenty for Salmond to gain here and Cameron can only lose.
- Giving the vote to 16 and 17 year olds is unprecedented in UK elections. You may be able to marry at 16 and repent at leisure but your brain isn't deemed to be adequately developed to make judgments on politics and your MP. The failure rate of mid-teenage marriages may well say the voting age of 18 is indeed correct and proves the point. However, particularly younger voters tend to be idealistic and therefore more likely to vote for independence in Scotland and for left leaning candidates in other elections. Potential double loss to Cameron.
So assuming Cameron hasn't been totally rolled over, what could he be thinking?
- The Scots will vote against independence however Salmond loads the dice so the man may as well be given all he wants so that he has nowhere hide afterwards.
-Despite the posturing, it doesn't matter to the Conservatives if Scotland does become independent. There could actually be at least two bonuses for the party. Firstly, without its traditional Scottish rock solid Labour-voting constituencies, Labour may never again be able to obtain an overall majority at Westminster .Secondly, economically the rest of the UK would be without its heavily welfare and state spending dependent northern neighbour.
-Even if the voting age in all other elections were reduced to 16, the number of additional constituencies gained by Labour would nowhere near cover their losses of Scottish seats, so the Conservative position at Westminster would at least be substantialy enhanced.
This all gives the agreement a different complexion. Despite the unionist posturing the Conservative leadership and policymakers may not mind whether the electorate choose independence or not. Either way the party wins. Either the Tories will have taken the long running issue by the scruff of the neck, put everything on the line and won , thereby kicking the SNP into the wilderness (for which Labour would also be duly grateful) and coming out of it heroically just a few months before the 2015 General Election. Alternatively if the outcome is independence there are big gains for the party in the new makeup of Westminster. That's called a win-win.
All clear now? Whatever the outcome,the champagne will be cracked open at Number 10 when the referendum results are announced on that night or day in the autumn of 2014. So simple. Cameron will not be losing any sleep tonight.
