Sunday, 28 October 2012

The clocks go back- and winter (democratic) gloom sets in.


Afraid to upset the few inhabitants of the far north of Scotland lest they vote for "Uhuru" or "Independence" in the same way as restive folk in the more distant colonies in the 1950s and 60s, the ever courageous UK government has quietly shelved any talk of retaining year-round BST, British Summer Time. The cost is estimated to be high, but what the hell, why modernise when you can stay still or even move backwards?

As result, from this evening , or rather afternoon, the British nation faces gathering gloom from not long after lunch to dampen its already not very high spirits. "Mustn't grumble" is the old favourite response . This of course means we will do exactly that in spades. (That's linguistic guidance for mystified foreigners,.-especially those who say what they mean.). UK plc needs every ounce of productivity and good cheer that it can muster but is the country up for it? The answer looks rather like a big fat, even obeise, "No".  Most are agreed that manpower intensive infrastructure projects building things to meet current and future needs are an excellent way out of recession. The only thing is that the hint of a new bypass to prevent locals from choking to death raises an immediate "Say No To...." campaign. This weekend there is a whole nationwide conference to educate people in how to oppose and obstruct any road project, however large or small. To be successful, competitive , open for business or just to get people where they want to go we need more runways for London, more and improved roads and an additional railway line to the north. Much of the response takes us back to the 1880s (Say No To the Great Western/Central/Northern/Eastern Railway) and all those jolly demos and scowling aristocrats defending the boundaries of their estates. Localised and parochial democracy is all very well, but.........Anyway, we will eventually get some good things done although at huge extra  cost and after delays which will leave us trailing behind our competitors. Never mind. In the meantime we can spend our Sunday evenings watching Downton Abbey and then exporting it to the USA. That should bring in a few dollars. Our democracy's OK then.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic those who haven't followed Obama's lead and voted early are into the final run in to the Presidential Election. To most foreigners the whole American democratic process is difficult to believe. The contestants spend the year- and now over $100 billion between them- in the warm up. The mud that used to be slung manually and the promises that used to be made verbally are now largely conveyed electronically and on billboards. Mass gatherings, huge auditoriums complete with leaping cheerleaders and slick haired orators (well, OK , Obama's hair isnt so slick though it is greying as befits a President) gather pace leading up to the big day while the normal functioning of government and decision making is suspended for a good six months before and at least another one ot two after the event. The winner then has just 2 years until the mid term elections. Campaigning for those starts a little later, -maybe only six or nine months ahead. That means that the time for fulfilling all those pre-election dreams and promises can be as short as 15 months and certainly no more than 18. Once the mid-terms are over it is possible that the President then no longer has a majority in the Senate or Congress or both. In those events he or one day she (Hillary? You may have left it a bit late though Regan made it despite a one year older start) is either seriously impeded or totally stopped dead in their tracks. Then comes the bid for the second term in office,- by now just 2 years away. The serious bow wave for this starts 9 or even 12 months out, so not much time for changing the world in the meantime.  Come the new Presidential Election and the result, the whole process and fund raising for it starts all over again. If the incumbent has won a second term but still hasn't a majority in the Senate and /or Congress he/she is faced with another four years of misery and a feeling of being bound head and foot. In the worst case (the loss of majority in the first mid term elections ) and assuming the President gets two terms that means that he/she has just those first 15-18 months out of the whole 4 years to do anything. It's and amazing process and reality.  That's where their democracy is.

While Americans may ponder that last question, things aren't looking too good for individual freedom, choice or leadership in the other 2 global powers either. The Russian top tier,- namely President Putin,- feels so threatened by the antics of a couple of young ladies entertainingly questioning the status quo that it has had them sentenced to two years in  two diabolically grim prison camps in the wastelands far to the east of Moscow well out of reach of their friends and families and any contact with the world. This evilly disproportionate reaction by the regime to an expression of dissent/disagreement is frightening. Any governmemt which actually doesn't like sections of its own citizens is disturbing and those which behaves like a thug is terrifying. Logic would say that Putin would not want to risk Russia's standing in the world by simple brutality to groups and individuals.  Unfortunately for the imprisoned ladies the only logic being employed here is the old sledghammer totalitarian one of making them a terrifying example to discourage others from expressing what many fellow Russians feel. The ability of the two to mentally and physically survive their terms in prison amongst both the prison authorities and some of their well chosen fellow prisoners is far from certain. Partly because of the US election and others reluctance to offend the Russian bear , the world has been deafening silent, -and totally neglectful,- on the whole affair. No cheer for democracy there.

Moving further east, -it's new chairs time in the other megapower,-China. They don't do elections but there is some kind of process by which rival contenders are selected or select themselves as the top dogs.  It can involve the sudden fall or disgrace of one or more who might be in the frame. Some self destruct . The killing of a British businessman by one powerful clique who thought themselves above the law was a major mistake . It has cost Mr Bo any chance of anything but incarceration and possibly execution . Once someone is down the instincts of any rival politician are to stand on their stomach or shoulders to ensure they stay there.( Yes, it happens here too,- you've noticed?). That little episode apart, although personal freedoms and choice in spheres other than politics have improved enormously  in China over the past 20 years,  political democracy is a long way off.

Interestingly all three of the world's major powers have one thing in common. In each of them the military is extremely powerful. Now that really is worrying.  It all makes our weekly Prime Ministers Questions look like a shining beacon for freedom in a world of democratic paralysis or repression.  Get worried when Dave asks Ed to step outside "for a little chat".