The week so far...................

First up has to be yesterdays lovely pictures of Greece's smiling Prime Minister with the European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker's arm extended warmly around his shoulder. What great body language. "We'll sort out something for you my boy" it says. Unlikely to see David Cameron get quite the same sort of warmth but we can live in hope. If keeping Greece in the Eurozone, for which it was never really financially eligible and in the EU is so important, how much more so is it for Mr Junker and friends to keep the UK in the EU? We should never forget that the unlamented Gordon Brown did the country one enormous favour when he rejected Tony Blair's wild enthusiasm for the UK adopting the Euro and thereby becoming welded into this disastrous one size fits Germany straitjacket. At least he saw where that one was coming from.

Talking of the relics of the 1997-2010 Labour dynasty it is no surprise to see that Lord (There's a true socialist title for you,- once they've tasted the good claret) Mandelson was beaten into third place in the election for the Chancellorship of Manchester University. He and his co-loser Sir Mark Elder a locally distinguished musician, will though be heartened by the Times report that Dame Nancy Rothwell, the President and Vice Chancellor has said that "other prestigious roles" are being sought for them. One has to ask why? Is the university not doing perfectly well without them ? Why create new roles just because you've got a couple of nice "terribly influential" celebs hanging about? Are they short of a crust or prestige so need new pedestals ? Even if they were why should Manchester University come to their aid, especially if it costs them any money? It all sounds a bit luvvie. Clearly anybody to do with this circle to have a title anyway and that's another growing British social problem worth a study of its own.

Also looking a bit luvvie is Richmond's golden boy MP Zac Goldsmith's declaration today that he will be running for the Tory nomination for Mayor of London. While current incumbent Boris, complete with an Eton and Oxford background, has a great man of the people touch and above all is seen as fun,  Goldsmith, is different. He is undoubtedly popular in Tory quarters especially the Richmond sort, but is very much the man of the gilded cage and  may struggle to find common ground with swathes of other Londoners. He's not exactly the sort of man you might expect to possibly bump into in the greasy spoon, newsagents ,on the bus or train whereas with Boris, perhaps it's unlikely in reality but you feel you just might and its the impression that counts.

That reminds us that Sir Harold Davies is in the next few weeks,- probably as close to Parliament breaking up for the long hols as possible,- due to reveal his recommendations on new runways for southern England. This is a tough one for an establishment man conscious of what is asked of him. We mean what is really asked of him .The first thing ,- and this bit was utterly clear,- was the absurd demand by the last government three years ago that he should not report before the May 2015 General Election.So began the longest essay in history. Three hours should have been enough, or three weeks in non exam conditions. Everyone knows the best answer for UK Plc is Heathrow and even better for both Heathrow and Gatwick so that a) There really is enough capacity and b) The two airports can slug it out competitively for growth. Everyone also knows that the recommendation will most likely be a fudge and unsatisfactory to everybody. The need for more runway slots is immediate,- or rather at least ten years ago. The report is more likely to talk about ten years hence,- which is about the earliest we could expect actual concrete anyway,- and point towards Gatwick while leaving the options open to review Heathrow again " in the long term" . That's to say to do absolutely nothing about it within the lifetime of most people now on the planet. Although it is a national issue and the UK has a population of 63.8 million and an electorate of 46.1 million the decision could rest on just three inside the M25 west London people the Prime Minister doesn't want to upset and who might cause him grief. Such is sometimes the reality of democracy. Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson and Justine Greening all west London MPs. A nonsense? Of course. It would never have come to this if it hadn't been for Cameron's wobbly knees before the 2010 General Election. Under Lord Adonis as Minister for Transport Heathrow was almost ready to start digging. Cameron thought that the only way to secure West London constituencies was to say no to Heathrow expansion. He was wrong as he would have won the seats anyway without that commitment. Ever since he has been squirming on his self made rack. Now is the time to take command and tell the recalcitrants to get off the runway but when push comes to shove he's not very good at that.

Down in the Med another storm is brewing. Her Majesty's Royal Navy and others are fishing "refugees" out of the water in ever increasing numbers. That's right and fine but instead of landing them back in North Africa they being transported to Italy where nobody is really clear or sure about what should happen next. For the vast majority who are economic migrants rather than escapees from the real Syrian and allied Middle East conflicts the answer should be simple quick flight home , the only place from which applications can be considered. The almost universal underlying belief is that this is unlikely and eventually they will be able to move northwards to the desired goals of  the more welfare generous countries. Once established they would expect to be able to bring in their, often large, families. This is incentivising the traffickers to step up their efforts. They now know that they barely need to equip their boats with engines but just push them off the Libyan coast and the passengers will be taken care of. There is a real possibility of not millions but tens of millions heading north in a short space of time. European heads fail to grasp this and instead talk for ever about "desperate people". They are stuck in idealistic quasi liberal sand refusing to think through the consequences and doing nothing concrete while a real human crisis builds. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has given the advice one might expect. Inevitably he has his human rights critics at home and abroad but his policy of making it absolutely clear that the vast majority of the boat economic migrants will never be able to settle in Australia is working. This is probably the only recipe that will. It might seem tough but it means that nobody setting of on these often hazardous and expensive journeys is under any illusions that their journeys will almost certainly lead right back home after a lot of discomfort along the way. If Europe is prepared to be changed utterly, ,impoverished and overwhelmed by numbers then its present policy is fine. If not, not. The whole thing seems to be way beyond most EU politicians, and hey, its nearly hols time in Brussels too.

That's the week so far. And it's only Tuesday.

UK election dust settles.

The political drama of last Thursday night will go down as a classic. Weeks of "Too close to call" poll verdicts, the dismissal of any chance of either major party having a majority and speculation as to which cobbled together coalition would win the day were suddenly exploded at 10pm when the BBC/ITV exit poll result was announced. Its verdict that the Conservatives would get 316 seats, just ten short of a majority blew Ed Miliband's dreams of leading a government apart. The instant reaction was that such a number was impossible. It just had to be wrong. The pompous Paddy Ashdown promised to eat his hat if it were true. Labour's old spin master Alistair Campbell promised to consume his kilt. To Miliband it must have been a hammer blow beyond belief. His lifetime ambition, the one for which he had elbowed his brother,was blown apart in moments. Politics is a brutal game and this most cruel reverse will take some getting over. Nick Clegg would probably vouch for that too. Even after the first few results Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman was still parroting her pre-ordained script "It's a terrible night for the Tories". The early hours' realisation that 316 seats could drift to the magic 326 overall majority and possibly even higher took a while to sink in, especially on the BBCs forecast which seemed to lag a bit all night.

So where are we now? Miliband, Clegg and Farage whose party though not seat tally had done well all fell upon their swords. Miliband's and Cleggs were genuine but Farage's appears to have been a stage fake. Harriet Harman, now Labour's Acting Leader, still locked into her personal fog, is muttering that the defeat will take some while to understand and conclusions must not be rushed..

Ms Harman can be spared the agonising. The reason is simple. Miliband's Labour were selling a dated 1950s-70s product that people don't want to buy. It's no use implying that the voters got it wrong and will change their minds another time. The old fashioned class warfare themed offerings talking patronisingly about "ordinary people", "working people" excluded and even vilified the aspirational (most people) and the successful. Why do that?  It's a gift to the Conservatives.

Not only Labour need to rethink their product and positioning. The Tories , who they are, how they look and sound and what they appear to stand for are not loved in many quarters. They have a lot to do in the north , where fortunately George Osborne is already on the case, and other poorer areas . There's Scotland too of course.

Right now David Cameron is on the high of a honeymoon and doing the right things (well balanced cabinet) at the right pace (not frantic but swift and determined). Freed of the LibDem handcuffs and concrete blocks around its ankles, his party looks remarkably fresh and like hitting the ground running.

Nationally, outside the celebs and some misguided young who say they feel like emigrating (Please do), there is something of a national sigh of relief. People on zero hours contracts need not fear being out of a job in weeks, business isn't threatened with micro management or in the case of the railways partial renationalisation. Neither Nicola Sturgeon nor Len McClusky will be writing  the government's agenda and Number 10 won't be doing beer and sandwiches. The revitalised Prime Minister, unexpectedly handed this Get Out of Jail Free card, must lift his horizons and spread his circle beyond the previous narrow clique. Unencumbered by the coalition there is lot to achieve and a personal legacy to create. There is not much time. The May 2020 election is in play now.

UK Election,- They're off.

Hopefully our travel weary Conservative and Labour leaders, veterans of countless "Don't meet the people" photo and other opportunities these last six weeks, will be getting a good night's sleep this afternoon.

They will need it if the whole unsatisfactory affair breaks down into "difficult" discussions about coalition and alliances. Expect plenty of acrimony before during and after.

Having inherited a disastrous financial mess from the broke Gordon Brown Labour government which included the socialists now bidding for another shot at doing it again and having got half way to solving it ,David Cameron should this afternoon be well on his way to victory.

But he isn't. The lacklustre campaign which didn't even to mention most of the coalition's many achievements, an unrehabilitated brand image and the the loss of the constituency boundary changes because he wouldn't go along with the LibDems' demands for even minor House of Lords reforms have left the man in the blue corner looking very vulnerable. He is rated by the electorate well ahead of Ed Miliband well ahead of his opponent  as likely being the better Prime Minister and being the more likely to reduce the current account defecit to zero. And yet he still struggles to get the breakthrough that he might expect.

Over in the red corner lie some of the reasons. Ever since the Brown years the well organised socialists have steadily plugged away at the soundbites of the class war. "For the many not the few", "Hard working working people" have been repeated ad infinitum . They have scarcely been  challenged and have taken a deep and toxic deep root. Mr Miliband and colleagues have relentlessly  harped on about "unfairness", portrayed successful people as "fat cats" and without scruple stoked up feelings about even the moderately well off being disadvantaged  exploited.  Everyone is a victim. "Austerity" is blamed for most ills even though the country has so far seen nothing like it.

The Conservatives never seemed to understand what the sound bites were all about so despite having a good story to tell never took the trouble to vigorously counter them. That's why we have the neck and neck race there should never have been.

Tonight many will be watching from behind the couch.

Footnote: Another key unenforced error was to ever agree to a referendum on Scottish independence. The idea should simply have been non negotiable under the Act of Union. Allowing it to happen gave a surge of oxygen to an otherwise fairly moribund issue and fired up the SNP  to keep raising it in the future. Inevitably in the end they will get a "Yes".

Election News: The Spinmasters' Challenge,- and Comeuppance.

A week today we will be heading for the polling booths. Except that in Twiga constituency we are effectivelydisenfranchised thanks to the sitting MP being the Commons Speaker, former Tory and now goodness knows what, John Bercow. By convention the major parties do not contest his seat so we are stuck with Mr Bercow, Nige's UKIP man and a Green. There's choice for you.

Between now and the big day anything could happen. First up is tonight's separate grillings of the three leaders on the institutionally far from neutral BBC. Already it is revealed that the audience numbers and proportions will be skewed to the left but what else did we expect? The third slot is the one to have as it carries the advantage of seeing and being able to respond to the other two. It should go to the incumbent Prime Minister. Will it?

Then there are the remaining days of campaigning. This has not been a good campaign. In fact the worst in recent memory, seemingly fought by competing fourth rather than sixth forms and even then mediawise only by their leaders. These precious days of democracy in action promise to be full of skulduggery, denial, betrayal (thankyou LibDems), last minute representations and misrepresentations,bribes,smears, downright lies and exhortations .That's if there are no nuclear cards up sleeves. Leaders found in or out of their underwear in nightclubs. That sort of thing. Probably unlikely with the main trio but who knows among the three other new era ones?

Including today there technically there are five weekdays when people might be listening and two weekend days when probably most aren't. Quite a challenge for the spin schedulers planning their climaxes. But it's worse than that.

It's a Bank Holiday weekend. From the end of today there will be more thought about the possible, likely or actual state of the M25/4/40/1, Virgin trains etc than about who is the least worst person to vote for. Then there are two days staring out at the rain ,wind or whatever and another back stressing about the state of Britain's transport arteries. Again not much thought about politics, and especially not much positive thought.

Then there is the big one. Some time between now and the election Dave, Ed , Nick and the rest are going to be swept off the headlines by "Royal Baby Arrives" , Royal Baby Supplements, "What name for Royal Baby" , "Royal Baby Named". How does a political Spinmaster cut through that? The only possible coup could be "Royal Baby named Dave/Ed/Nick" but that seems unlikely in the House of Windsor. Especially if it's a girl. In which case double wipeout if she's called Diana.

So what happens?  The visually and aurally drowned electorate who will likely say "Thank goodness for that. Now I can just go and vote for whoever I was going to vote for in the first place".

The Election- Unenforced errors and things.

Just when their man had given Conservative supporters three days of respite from feeling that he was sleepwalking towards defeat by coming out of his corner full of energy and bounce, Cameron  makes an utterly nonsensical unnecessary promise to turn his previous undertaking not to raise rates of income tax, National Insurance Contribution and VAT for the duration of the next Parliament into legislation.Back behind the sofa everyone.n

Why on earth do that? Is he saying that there are now two tiers of election promises,- those you will legislate not to renege on and those that you won't so can?

Why on earth also box yourself in when fixing the economy and getting the annual expenditure budget to break even is the job in hand and the one which the electorate already believes you are the best party to do? It just makes no sense.

Nor does the growing fashion for legislating to restrict the freedom of future governments but that and its constitutional implications is a whole story in itself.

Ed Miliband didn't do a lot better either with his nocturnal visit to Russell Brand's house for an interview. Although Mr Brand's recording studio is in his house, the view of anyone going to a house puts the visitor in the position of being a supplicant. Remember those pictures of Lord King and Sir Colin Marshall going to Richard Branson's house during the curious "Dirty Tricks"allegations? It wrong footed them completely although the case itself was never proven. Then there is the small matter of Mr Brand being seen as way out on the left wing. Ed doesn't have a problem with left wing support. He will get all those votes anyway. It is over on the right where he needs to seek additional votes and where this evening sortie will lose rather than gain any. So why go there,- especially at night which has even more negative PR perceptions? Where was his political and people nous? And where were his advisors?

For David Cameron the problem remains his basic lack of political feel and wordliness. It is not his fault but he has never lived in a world of real people, their hopes and fears and daily concerns. That would be OK if he had around him a wide circle of multi-background advisors or just people to talk to but, preferring the company of long standing school and university friends who he trusts too much,  he hasn't, and he visibly pays the price. He should also forget about  the faux "man of the people" footie stuff. Electors aren't idiots. Being posh isn't a no, no but pretending not to be is.

Ed Miliband is better schooled by Alistair Campbell and others.  During these past few weeks they have done a much better job on their client than Cameron's Lynton Crosby. despite their efforts, Take away the facade and Ed is no more a man of the people than his rival. He has though lived among some of the north London variety in his school days something which is an enormous benefit at times like these. Despite that, Northerners, Scots, Welsh, Northern Irelanders, Cornish, non London southerners and other fringe tribes are probably a bit of a mystery.

The man who has avoided these slips, talks human and can talk easily to anyone is the unfortunate Nick Clegg. Unfortunate? Yes. If he can't find a bigger issue to shout about this final week than free school meals he isn't going to set the campaign alight.

The ladies meanwhile continue to steer a slip-free course and do well, though two of them within limitations. The seemingly unlimited one, Nicola Sturgeon sweeps on in Scotland. Her biggest risk is that she might overcook it and some of the 55% who voted "No" in last September's independence referendum suddenly wake up as to what she is all about and scuttle back to Labour. That's the party whose decades of arrogant neglect of Scottish voters real interests strengthened calls for "independence" in the first place. Over in Wales, Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood is at least now known outside her home province but her task against overwhelming historic support for Labour who have done Wales few favours is almost impossible. Down among the Greens, once past her initial disastrous TV performance, leader Natalie Bennett did well enough in the BBC's 5 way non-debate but hasn't appeared much since. Their current sole MP Caroline Lucas might be a better front for the party but for those who do not want to live in caves, walk to work (if there is any) and live in poverty, whoever is leader doesn't have much of an agenda to sell.

A week today will be the last day of campaigning. That at least is a relief. It could save many TV screens. More before that though...

UK Election,-10 Days to get Serious.

With the interminable campaigns finally about to go into their last week, it's time for the Conservatives to get a grip if they are to finish up at all well.

They have a good story of the last 5 years to to tell.  They are way ahead in perceptions of their ability to run the economy. They are up against the most uncharasmatic and ineffective Leader of the Opposition in living memory .They should be walking towards victory and riding high in the polls. But they aren't.

Why not?

First there is the Leader, David Cameron a man immensely at ease with himself  and his coterie of close friends mainly acquired at school and university. Given a pedestal upon which to stand he is undoubtedly a charming and courteous host, especially on his metro London or Cotswold home turf. Away from those things he does not look not at home at all, either among "ordinary" people in Britain or the non British political communities abroad. He relishes the red carpet stuff and positively glows when with the Angelas, Obamas and other top players, wearing a strange sort of  "Look who I'm with" sort of stifled smug grin. Blair was the same, reaching the peak of hubris when he stood side by side with George Bush, thumbs thrust down his jeans, having just promised him he would do whatever was required in Iraq.

Both major party's campaigns have been dreadful, stage managed "Don't meet the people but look as if you do" affairs. Lecturn based speeches to almost empty, but thanks to the camera's, full looking halls have been the norm. Nurses, teachers, schoolchildren, apprentices, or whoever is the theme of the day have been wheeled out to form backdrops on pain of death to look cheerful and make no inappropriate gestures. It has been a total farce.No knockabout town hall hustings. No questions. No answers. Cameron and Miliband have been swept straight from their lecturns into their Bentleys or battlebuses and driven off at speed. This has allowed the well tutored Miliband to grow into looking like a possible Prime Minister while Cameron, lacking the visible passion and energy, has ever so gently shrunk. Miliband has gone for every media opportunity while Cameron seems to have chillaxed and avoided anything remotely risky.

Despite the voters known dislike for negative campaigns, Cameron has veered off the positive messages about the economy into unnecessary and un-Prime Ministerial personal attacks on both Miliband and Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon. Having orginally stood where he was told by advisor Lynton Crosby on the economy, Cameron has more and more shown his lack of feel for the game by swerving all over the road in trying to respond to every special offer by the other parties. He has inexplicably countered with unnecessary and unaffordable ones of his own. Why after five years of fiscal prudence risk it all by throwing money around in the last four weeks? It makes no sense.

As result right now Conservative voters feel that this election might be slipping away from them. The BBC of course does all it can to move this impression along in all sorts of subtle and less subtle ways but there does seem to be a drift. With just a few more days to go, the Conservative leadership  must  now re-energise the Prime Minister, get him out there shaking some real hands looking like he's really enjoying it rather than reaching for the hand sanitiser and shouting the economic success  theme from the rooftops. No harm in reminding people where he has brought it all from these last five years , what a wreck it was and who caused it but from that baseline he has to break out into the "We are hungry to finish the job"  theme. If he doesn't what follows could be messy, -and involve a lot more chillaxing for him. His colleagues and voters won't thank him for that. He may be able to afford it but they and the country can't.

UK Election .The TV "debate". The winner was.....

Nearly a week on from the BBC 5 sided " debate" between the  opposition contenders, the night is almost forgotten. It was significant though as one more input the voter's decision making.

On the surface it seems to have made not a jot of difference in the polls, so David Cameron may well be congratulating himself on a night better spent elsewhere. Below the surface though he would be mistaken.

Ed Miliband's acceptability to the electorate has been creeping slowly but surely upwards.Carefully tutored, he has been looking more self assured, his suits snappier, and his speaking more passionate.He is looking like a man with a mission and he is one . People's perceptions are shifting from "No way could he be Prime Minister" to "Maybe, just maybe". That is real progress. In such a tight contest every little counts. He can see flashing before him the prospect of leading the most left wing government since the 1940s . His Marxist father would have been proud.

In this debate Miliband stood on the left wing while Nigel Farage stood on the right, a little isolated , rather unloved and rarely listened to by the predominantly left leaning audience. In contrast the Labour leader was able to adopt the relaxed pose of the bull in the field to whom the three ladies of SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens generally addressed their comments in a sort of interview for the position of best coalition partner. The most significant moment of the evening came right at the end after all the talking. First the three ladies went into a strange group hug. Then, one by one they went to shake Miliband's hand as if in an act of obeissance . He accepted the hands graciously. What he was thinking we can only guess at. Was that a flicker of condescension on his lips?  Nigel was left alone to shrug and go off to the pub.

In the pub, or wherever he did go, Farage must have shaken his head a little. He alone had underlined that the economy isn't yet fixed and the control of national policy exercised by the EU is excessive but nobody was listening. The studio audience,- whose bias he challenged,- was far happier with shouts of no more austerity (as if we've really seen half of what's necessary), and promises of more borrowing ,endlessly taxing "the rich" and other bogey people who already pay the bulk of the nation's taxes, create the jobs but do so, shock, horror for profit.The Welsh lady had even said,- presumably to Miliband,- "Give us £1.5 billion a year and we won't have to do austerity" and not a murmur of disapproval was heard.

The case for the right, the listing of the coalition's many achievements went unstated and there was no counterweight to Miliband's dominance of the proceedings. Cameron would have had clear field of fire and been able to challenge the myths being put about. We must assume that he had been advised by Crosby not to take part because he sometimes isn't quick enough on his feet to deal with the unexpected and there was the danger of him being led into a costly trap. It turned out to be a mistake and he should have seen that coming.

Many would argue that Nicola Sturgeon's performance was the evening's highlight. As a speaker and leader she is far ahead of the Westminster metro elite duo. She is also on a  mission,- and as far as the integrity of the UK is concerned not a good one. South of the border most don't know in any detail what she's really all about but they like her style, the fact that she comes across as a plain speaking, decisive human. That's a far cry from the Cameron and Miliband Oxbridge retinues. Glasgow University Union ("Is there a university in Glasgow?" they might ask) has for decades been the best training ground for aspirant politicians. Its annual five full scale parliamentary debates have no rivals in the UK. They do real down to earth political cut and thrust. That is where she learned her trade. That's why she is making mincemeat of Labour in Scotland in this national UK election. She may not in next year's Scottish Parliament elections but that is a story we will come back to.

Powerful though Ms Sturgeon was in this debate, it didn't really matter.The real winner was Ed Miliband. That final lineup of the three ladies to shake his hand said it all.  His cred was just a little  higher and the Conservative case against him a little more dented. That's especially true among women voters who had already marked him up a notch or two after the previous week's revelations that he had had a bit of a way with women whilst at university. Over to you David Cameron,- and please don't come up with a mistress or two of the hounds.

Two weeks to go..............