Understatement of the Month,- Theresa May on Immigration.

It is "unlikely" that David Cameron's unwise and almost certainly unresearched 2010 General Election promise that immigration would be brought down to 10,000 a year will be met. So said the new Iron Lady, the formidable Theresa May.

It was never remotely possible, EU or no EU. Mouth engaged before brain when Dave said it,- and not for the only time.

Now the man himself has followed up with an immigration speech designed to UKIP-proof his Party. He'd probably do better to leave the issue alone and concentrate on more positive things.

One nonsense in the immigration figures is the Conservative Party's absurd insistance that students are included in the total. They are not immigrants.They are coming here to spend a lot of money buying a British education.They will also buy accomodation, food, entertainment, transport and a host of other things while they are here as will any friends and family who come to visit them. With luck, unless they are made to feel unwelcome and received with hostility, they will become lifelong friends of Britain and continue to spend money here and on British goods throughout their lives. Most will then go away again. Those who rise to positions of power or influence in their home counties may also be able to influence all kinds of decisons in Britain's favour or at least give the UK a headstart. Those who do eventually stay on and apply for residence would mainly also be assets to Britain's talent base as well as contributors to its exchequer. OK, there are some who try to abuse the system by signing up for, shall we say less reputable schools or "colleges", but there is no reason why those should not be robustly dealt with and escorted to the airport for their flight home regardless of protests on their behalf by sundry activists.

Another problem Britain has with immigration is that it has no idea who has left the country. John Major abolished the outward bound passport check as an economy measure . Since then the UK, probably uniquely in the world, has no idea who has outstayed their visa unless they pop up on the radar for some other reason. Even then they know that their chances of deportation are minimal. The 1997-2010 Labour government encouraged mass immigration because it knew that the bulk of recent immigrants tend to vote Labour and the current Tory/LibDem coalition hasn't got to grips with it, partly because EU-wise it can't and non-EU wise the multiple appeals system makes rapid removal of those who should not be in the country almost impossible.

It's a mess and no political party, least of all UKIP, seems to be able to think straight about it. 

An American Twiga's view of the Mid Terms.

Our American Twiga (giraffe) has been in an excellent position to look down upon the Mid Term elections. He would shake his head if he could but that's not so easy at the top end of a long neck. Rolling the eyes will have to do instead.

Firstly though let's just consider the strange world of the American democratic process. The President is elected for a four year term and, all going less than disastrously,- can expect two terms. That's a total of eight years. After that it's game over.  He or she may not stand again. So far so good .The British experience is that towards the end of two terms, ten years here, the incumbent really should take a long holiday anyway. More than that is dangerous from almost everybody's point of view. Exhaustion or hubris have taken their toll and there is no gratitude from the waving crowds who cheered victory on Day 1. They've gone, moved on.

In the USA, even if the new President steps into the White house with a majority in both Houses, he or she has got just two years ,- that's eighteen months max before campaigning begins once more,- to make a favourable impact and get the important stuff done. After that come the mid terms at two years from "Go". Once those are over there is the risk of the President losing their majority in both Houses twice more before the end of the 8 years. Life is tough if one of them goes to the opposition and potentially dreadful if both do. That's what happened last week. President Obama, not looking as youthful as he did six years ago, has lost both Houses. Inevitably the label "Lame duck President" is stuck on him at every opportunity by a hostile and frequently gloating media. He can't feel wonderful about that.

So how does American Twiga see it? He says.

Ludicrous is the word for what is happening. Unfortunately the order of priority for pretty well all American politicians is first and foremost to get re-elected 2-4 years down the track. Way behind that comes supporting the base of the party and almost out of sight behind that there comes the idea of doing something for the country.

(That's not only true across the Atlantic is it?)

Some say we shouldn't blame the politicians. Blame the Voters. There's some truth in that. The USA has become more polarised than ever .Election strategies are no longer about persuading voters to switch allegiances but more about getting your own supporters to come out and vote and those of the other party to stay at home. That looks like the rationale behind the new laws requiring a photo-ID in some states. The poorer people don't have driving licences so need to go and get an official one. That costs $75 and they may have to travel 30 miles to get it, so they don't bother. These laws have been pushed forward in spite of the fact that there have only been a handful of cases of proven voter fraud in the past 50 years. No surprise that voter turnout was only 37% and down to 13% for the under 30s. Obama was on a hiding to nothing and yet these same people who hung him and his party out to dry by not turning out to vote are the ones who complain that the Republicans have prevented him from implimenting policies which would have helped them. Politics is a hard game that usually ends in tears. There is no gratitude to Obama for having at last brought in health care for millions of the previously excluded and having extricated most American troops and military expenditure from the disaster of Afghanistan. He promised those things and they were very much part of the wave of enthusiasm that swept him into the White House six years ago. He's gone almost white haired in delivering them and how is he rewarded ? The loss of both Houses for the final two years of his Presidency. One could forgive him for saying " ---- this for a game of soldiers,- I'm off". But he can't. Not audiably or visibly anyway.

It's hard to say what will happen now. Democrats in the Senate can still stop anything from passing by using filibusters, just as the Republicans have been doing very effectively. Or Obama can just veto anything he considers too drastic. Among those will be the sorts of things the Tea Party might push. The repeal of Obamacare would be the highest profile and designed to deprive him of any kind of legacy so he's not likely to sign that one. Unless therefore the Republicans decide to adopt a statesmanlike cooperative approach in the interests of showing the electorate that they are positive people who can get things done, expect more gridlock,and name calling inside Congress. Outside just rising disgust with Washington and politicians of all hues. The outcome of the 2016 elections may depend on which side makes the least errors of judgment. Again, some similarities with the eastern side of the Atlantic.

EU hands UKIP a win at Rochester.

The UK's right wing UKIP,-UK independence Party, have been handed a massive gift in the form of the EU's demand that the country pays in an additional and unbudgeted £1.7 billion into its coffers for, along with a number of countries including laughably Italy and Greece, outperforming the EU norms.

To add fuel to the fire the biggest beneficiaries are France and Germany, the two core countries for whose peace and security (ie to keep them from each others' throats) and benefit the "European Project "was originally dreamed up.

 In comparaison the largest contributor, the UK, which has taken the pain of so called austerity (actually nothing of the kind and not enough) and  has the most liberalised and open trading policies in Europe along with the least regulated and most flexible labour policies, has taken the hit.

What a bonus for UKIP. The timing of the EU's demand is just right for Nigel Farage's party and their merry men down the pub.

It's just the right time for the EU heavies and armies of  Eurocrats too. It couldn't be better.

For Mr Junker and his fellow superstate federalists the prospect of a few right wing anti-EU MPs in the British parliament doesn't matter in the slightest.

The big prize which will bring one of those smiles to Brussels faces is that a Rochester win for UKIP will strengthen the party at a crucial moment. It will not just help them to win maybe eight seats in the May 2015 General Election but much more importantly it will help boost the UKIP votes in a large number of  the more conservative Conservative seats. Those are predominantly the ones with an older age profile and where dreams of golden ages that never were flourish and abound. The maths of all this could ensure that with the right of centre vote split even where it has a clear combined majority, enough seats will be lost to a lower polling Labour party to give the leaders of the left a clear overall majority.

For Brussels it's a dream result. It would mean the end of David Cameron, his referendum and the threat of the UK leaving their socialist dominated authoritarian and financially incontinent club. In his place would come a supine Ed Milliband- led left wing government willing to go along with the rest for the sake of not rocking any boats and being one of the commune. Labour would not even have to go into a coalition with the hand wringing illiberal LibDems .What could be better for the advance of the unreformed, undemocratic Franco/German bloc?

 In reality it's a nightmare for Britain.

From their own point of view, the EU machine could not have timed their demand for more cash better. 

Scotland,- just when you thought it was all settled.....it's business as usual in the SNP.

The confirmation of Nicola Sturgeon as the new leader of the Scottish National Party came as no surprise.

Nobody stood against her.

Nor should it be any surprise that her appointment brought an abrupt end to and southern,- ie English,- notion that the independence referendum had settled that little matter for "at least a generation".

As a democrat in the true EU, -for that is who Scotland seeks to bow to rather than the lot in England,-mould, Ms Sturgeon's theme is that having got the wrong answer on this occasion it's only a matter of time until the electorate is invited to vote again and this time get it right. Right that is for her party who only won in the heavily populated but geographically tiny Glasgow, western Clyde-Forth Valley and Dundee enclaves. 

This time she is up and running with the theme that if the wicked English don't  unconditionally deliver whatever she interprets as them, under the ad hoc default leadership of the Scottish giveaway maestro Gordon Brown, having promised in the chaotic runup to referendum day, there is a real prospect of a unilateral declaration of independence.

This wasn't a good start for Scotland or anyone else. She is saying that if a party (SNP) were to declare in its manifesto that independence is their objective, then win that election and then hold another referendum, that's it, the deed is done. Presumably she is talking about the Scottish parliament here. She fails to understand that this august body has no more power to declare independence from the United Kingdom than does the smallest Parish Council. It is simply not in the list of devolved powers. Apart from anything else the lady has some reading to do. If she's no time for that she could just ask a first year Scottish university law student for guidance on this constitutional point. 

Clearly Ms Sturgeon's offering to the people of Scotland is aggravation as before. She and her party don't love the English and never will but to obsessively persue the separatist goal is debilitating to both Scotland and the larger entity of which it is part. If  the SNP were to get on with the business of using the extensive powers the country already has to make it a glittering example of the socialist paradise it promises, the nationalists might have a better chance of persuading those who voted "No"that there might be something in "Yes" after all. Until then...................

Where are we this wet Monday afternoon?

Not in a very good place.

Ebola, ISIS, UKIP,-What's there not to fear? Hysteria surrounds the first and last of those. "We will check the travel history of arriving passengers" says some government spokesperson. Oh yes? Have they ever seen the Immigration queues at airports on a good day never mind a bad Sunday evening with hundreds of stags and hens lurching over the place and now shrieking "I've got ebola" to add to the fun. Even the organisers of the checks say they won't achieve anything except that "they will raise awareness of the symptoms". As many of these closely resemble influenza expect some fun. Sneeze or a train or bus and you will be out the window.

ISIS: This band of appalling sadisitic thugs who loathe all other people, especially women unless they come posthumously in the form of 72 virgins and who would disgrace the SS, continue to do well on the Turkish border at Kobane where the Turk army and massacre tourists are amassed to watch the final wipeout .They are close to Baghdad too.Thankyou Tone.

UKIP. OK, the big 2 parties have earned a kick in the rear for having no vision, no plan with which to enthuse voters and instead setting out their stalls in terms of who is going to chuck the most money into the clinically often excellent but otherwise bloated, over managed, inefficient, dysfunctional and too often non patient orientated NHS. They also continue to demonstrate a continuing lack of  real consciousness of anywhere north of Hampsted or Islington while their leaders are visibly incapable of normal human interaction outside their immediate circles. To register disapproval of all this it's fine to vote UKIP in the current round of by-elections.To ever believe that this negative, backward looking, anti many things and pro very little bunch could be the answer to anything is a huge mistake.

FORECAST FOR NEXT MAY.

Ebola forgotten. ISIS in Syria crushed by the Turks once they've done Turkey the favour of wiping out the Kurds who want their own state partly on a bit of Turkey. Labour/LibDem (if there are any left) or Tory/UKIP coalition unless UKIP have undermined more Tory than Labour majorities, so letting in Labour with an absolute majority, leaving Ed as our Dear Leader.

Talking of Dear Leaders, where is he of North Korea? In bed with bad ankles eating Swiss cheese or in the big Dictatorship,- otherwise known as Democratic Socialist Paradise,- In The Sky with his deceased uncle and others previously personally selected by him? That at least would be some belated justice.

LibDems freed from Glasgow,-or are they still there?

You have to feel sorry for attendees at the LibDem conference in Glasgow. Not only had they been incarcerated since Saturday,- a long time ago,- but on finally leaving they were faced with an awful dilemma.

Not the choice of which of their future coalition partners to be rudest to and about. Much worse than that.

Fresh from just having voted to hobble further growth of Britain's thriving aviation sector by rejecting any ideas of further runways, and being almost religiously opposed to emissions  of any kind (difficult on a lentil and beans diet) they had to get home without polluting the environment. Flying was obviously out. That left the trains. But some of those use planet choking diesel and the others electricity made from all sorts of things transported across the world to avoid it actually being Britain who chucks nasties out into the atmosphere.Coaches? Yes, OK for some but they do take a long time to reach the deep south. That left the most inefficient polluters of all,- cars.

We really don't know the answer. Nick and friends were seen heading north in a (standard class) train so maybe they returned to inside the M25 comfort zone the same way. The rest? If anyone sees forlorn figures standing by the exits of M74 and M6 service stations clutching bundles of conference goodies, do give them a cheery wave.Extra weight in the car means more pollution. Sorry folks.

Footnote: Among LibDems demands of a future coalition bedmate is that they should be allocated a couple of LibDem only ministries to do more or less what they want with. The ones they are said to want are Transport and Business. May all deities preserve us. 

Hong Kong Teeters. Different views of democracy.

Hong Kong Plc. is teetering closer to an edge than its pro-democracy and Occupy Central protesters may fully realise. Whatever the merits of their campaign which is now seriously affecting at least some businesses in the Central district , the outcome will not be decided locally. It will depend on conclusions reached and decisions made in Beijing. Apart from balancing domestic and future Taiwan implications they will also be influenced by events and experience in other parts of the world.

For now things are calmer than when the police used tear gas on some of the crowds on Sunday. That was a public relations disaster and to many of the activists literally a red rag to a bull. The visibly heavy handed tactic has been put aside at least for the moment and the police presence scaled back. The protesters, whose average age appears to be around 22, remain in place though and that means disruption, something most Hong Kongers do not like. Two public holidays, on Wednesday and Thursday could see even larger crowds on the streets but the hope is that after that the affair will then subside with both sides able to claim some honour, the protesters having made their point and the authorities having acted with restraint. If calm does not return by the end of next weekend the pressure on both the Hong Kong and Beijing governments to "do something" to restore normal life in the former colony may become iresistable.

The outcome isn't all about Hong Kong, China and Asia though.

 Beijing is faced with enormous pressures in holding together a vast and disparate country. Its first priority has always been to maintain a central grip on law and order above all else. It will therefore  be looking at other pro democracy and separatist movements, notably those in the Middle East and Ukraine. The analysts and decision makers won't be too impressed with what they see and their conclusions are likely to run along the lines: "Just as we thought,- street demos get out of hand, vehicles and buildings get burned out then wrecked, cities and villages converted into heaps of rubble, infrastructure destroyed for decades to come, business stops and runs and what was championed as democracy turns out to be unworkable anarchy and the only movement is fast backwards. Enough is enough. This must stop".

Regardless of the merits of the case and the high profile enthusiasm of the young, it is likely that a large majority of Hong Kong residents would also say "Enough is enough". They just want to get on with their lives, -and making money. They are not generally impressed with things that get in the way of those activities. Predictably but unfortunately this democratic reality is getting scant attention from even the more serious parts of the global media. The demos are so much more exciting. The downside of the unbalanced coverage is that it encourages the protesters to continue disrupting Hong Kong life at a time when they would do better to also say "Enough is enough"and quit this battlefield with honour and face intact, realising that continuing is dangerous.

The effects of the "Go for it" tone of the media have been seen all over the world many times before. Come the day when the complained of authority bites back and clips its or other peoples' citizens around the ear, the journos, cameramen and the rest head for the airport, leaving the unfortunate residents to take the hit. Never mind, another opportunity will come along somewhere else soon so why should they worry about what they have left behind? Governments have been guilty too but that's another (sorry) story.

Despite Beijing slowing down progress towards democracy, the Special Administrative Region ,- aka  city state,-  remains conspicuously ahead of all of its regional rivals in almost every respect. Above all people are free to go about their daily lives and businesses without fear, hindrance or adverse government intervention while all the elements of the well planned and organised infrastructure work 24/7/365. The protest movements have done a good job in sounding alarm bells about Beijing's political interference and that may have some effect. Now they need to pause and take stock of how good things really are for most of Hong Kong's people most of the time and what they risk losing for everyone if they push Beijing just a fraction too hard. There's another hard fact they should remember. They've never asked the electorate, especially those older than themselves, what they really want and what they are prepared to risk in this particular spat. The democratic answer would probably not be what they expect.

Tories rocked by defection and scandal ? Unlikely.

The British media has gone into an excited "shock, horror "frenzy over the defection of Rochester MP Mark Reckless to UKIP and the exposure of another  MP, Brooks Newmark, for having, well, exposed himself on social media to a lady posing as a friend he for some reason thought he would like to have.

As ever the BBC, that organisation who's license payer funded news function should be to deal in facts rather than speculative drama, is in there with the worst of them.

The reality is that the Conservative Party is, or should be, pretty relaxed if it were never to see either of these two gentleman or the previous UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell again. None of them was ever likely to be of great note in any serious party. Their self selection for departure, or in the case of Mr. Newmark, stepping down in the ranks, should be put down as nature taking a desirable course. Their change of status is of no importance or significance.

That's one reality. Hopefully this little flurry will now drop into the "Of little interest" box and focus can move onto real policy issues and the plans for dealing with them on offer in next May's election.

That could be difficult though.  Another reality is that it is the lack of exciting big picture visions that the electorate can enthusiastically sign up for (nothing of substance came out of the Labour or UKIP conferences) that makes a bored media run with anything it can get its hands on. If the Tories don't come up with good meaty stuff this week there's only the LibDem conference left to go. No comment needed.

Referendum,- What was that?

Just a week ago the United Kingdom woke up wondering if it still existed. A momentous occasion as the nation reached out for its radio or TV "On" buttons.

To the relief of those who saw the split as a potential disaster for all concerned, the Scottish pro-independence vote was confined to the western end of the Clyde-Forth Valley, surprisingly perhaps not even extending as far as Falkirk in the middle. The only other "Yes" outpost was the city of Dundee, encircled by the "No " voting rural areas of Angus and Fife and the rest of Scotland.The "Yes" maths were fatally wounded by only 75% of "Yes" voting Glasgow turning out against  84.4% of "No" voting  Edinburgh.  Most "Don't Knows", freed from the at times less than friendly attention of their neighbours and SNP activists revealed themselves as "No". Game over.  Alex Salmond's proposition was decisively defeated by 55/45. % .All the scares and very likely the generous special offers made since Mr. Murdoch's Sunday Times' one off poll suggesting a possible "Yes" majority proved to be unnecessary.

Most of Britain rolled over and quickly moved on to enjoy the weekend as if the danger of a split were over for all time. Mr Salmond lost no time in reminding everyone that "No, it isn't" and then , surprisingly to many just when a top flight SNP negotiator is needed to extract the maximum from David Cameron (not difficult), falling on his sword. Salmond accused the devious ( usually true) people of Westminster of trickery before also taking a day or two off. The immediate drama is over but there's a lot to play for and for Scotland to gain over the next few months before the final deal is signed. That might be a bit painful for the rest of Britain as, true to form, Gordon Brown signed the three terrified "leaders " up to giving away the shop in their moments of blind panic.

Why the panic?

For Cameron it was the possibility of going down in history as the man who agreed to gamble the future of the United Kingdom in a Referendum dictated by Salmond. The over lengthy timescale, the phrasing of the questions so that "Yes" was for independence, the agreement that 16 year olds could vote all favoured Salmond far more than Cameron seemed to even begin to understand. He won but it could easily have gone the other way.

For Miliband Junior and New Old Labour the loss of 40+ Scottish MPs could have scuppered dreams of imposing socialism on England in the forseable future.

For Clegg, well, who knows but he joined in anyway.

Putting all that aside, the Scottish deal and now the bombing of the bad guys in Iraq, will at least give MPs something to do in what was looking a decidedly thin legislative period between now and May's General Election.

No sooner had the visiting leaders and their entourages fled the Highlands and Lowlands and returned to their laagers inside the London Congestion Zone , never mind the North and South Circular or, at its extremity, the M25 than the Labour  contingent had to pack their bags again and go to Manchester. Presumably most went by train devoid again of First Class branding. It is doubtful if many went by coach via a refreshment break on the M1. Too many common people there and no photo ops though it might have given Ed the ideas for a few more "I spoke to real people and they said to me..." quotes for his dreadful conference speech.

Ah, that gathering and that speech. Both were true Labour and true Ed even if the leader substituted the word "Friends" for the much loved "Comrades". The false bonhommie for the cameras, the minders, security zones, Trade Union sponsors and masters. The carefully planted "real people" for the media. The moving of less photogenic disabled people to make way for for others more in keeping with the desired image. And then, on Tuesday, THAT speech. 2.30pm is the dreaded slot for any speaker especially after a party or three the night before. To his credit, Ed spoke without notes other than a few headline prompts on the lecturn.  It would have been helpful if these had included words like"The Economy" or "Immigration". Maybe they did, in which case he should have gone to SpecsSavers.

 We were promised Labour's great 6 point plan to change and save the nation . This was offered in exchange for giving the party which only four years ago brought the country to the edge of ruin not just five, but ten please, years to weave their magic. Borrowing from an American Presidential theme and more recently the Scottish "No" ed intoned more than fifty times that "Together" we can do all sorts of things and the hated Tories would just do whatever in a dark corner on their own while ignoring the desparate plight of the rest of society.

What else did we get?

Sixty five minutes of the tedious , downbeat ,"It's all awful", part preaching, part hectoring, totally moralising style that is Ed's trademark. Lots of dreary tedium. Politically incorrect cameras picked up pictures of afternoon nap taking,fidgeting or pure boredom. Only Harriet Harman, famous for her nodding at everything Ed says , managed to look adoringly and with glistening eyes at her leader throughout,- and nod of course.

Yes, Ed did set out his stall only too well . It's not a pretty sight. The most significant feature was the Freudian omission of any agenda to fix the economy or sort out immigration. He really doesn't want to talk about these things. What's wrong with tax, borrow and spend after all. Far better than new thinking, reform, re-energising.

 Ed's stool has just two main legs,- First the NHS and the mythical threat to it of the Tories and use of private facilities , now about 6% of total activity, originally sensibly introduced by Labour during his time as a Brownie. Second the Class War, an essential creation which must be kept alive if socialism is to have any appeal to anyone. There is no third leg other than a mish mash of odds and ends. There is certainly no vision of a better, greater Britain achieved by really tackling the issues.Nothing to excite, inspire or really get people going. Just more of the dreary old same.

In the real world the Tories have pumped much the same amount as he proposes ,-£2.6 billion,- into the NHS this year. It is not clear what the additional money has achieved in terms of output or performance. Ed intends his bung to pay for personal health plans for all and 36,000 additional front line staff by 2020. No mention where all these people are to come from in just 5 years or of the root and branch review and redesign of almost everything the huge organisation does which almost everybody knows has to happen. No mention of dreadful inefficiencies, waste, the legacy of Labour's disastrous high cost/lower productivity deal with GPs and Consultants. The Labour answer to it all is unchanged,- lots  more people as demanded by the unions and lots more money.

The class war will always attract and inspire Hampstead socialists in the Miliband mould. They grew up with it, know that they have to perpetuate it, and they love it. It's what the singing of the Red Flag at the end of "Conference" every year is all about and it gives them nice warm feelings. Dangerously it reminds non believers that Labour not only dislikes some other sections of the electorate but more actively loathes them and will do all they can to land blows upon them. Hence Ed's claims to be gung ho for entrepreneurs rings hollow. Shrewd minds  know that once they are successful despite all the personal risks of bancruptcy, unending hard work and the obstacles in their way and have made a bit of money, bought a nice house , paid private medical insurance, put their children into private schools  and gained a few other deserved goodies they will morph from being heroes to despised class enemies. So much for encouraging and supporting an aspirational society. Labour doesn't and in its current form never will.

There were a few passing titbits during the 65 minutes. One was the complete removal of carbon emissions from electricity production by 2030. No how or by whom of course. That's down to the pariah power companies whose incentives to invest diminish by the minute. Another was the appointment of a global lesbian, gay and trans gender ambassador. Ed managed to remember those things but not fixing the economy or immigration. Freud was on form. Ed was not.

All this in just a week. Scotland has saved itself,- and the United Kingdom,- for now at least. Labour has saved us from getting excited about its offerings. Dave has got us back into the Middle East just as we thought we were getting out. Nigel Farage and UKIP are having their conference in Doncaster, while, cleverly Dave, the media are busy with Iraq. Next up is the Conservative Conference in Birmingham which is almost becoming a suburb of London. North(ish) but safe. About as far as a London Tory can safely go,- or wants to go. More on the proceedings there later.

More on Scotland.

Suddenly last weekend the YES cat seemed to be among the unwary NO pidgeons. Mr Murdoch's Sunday Times produced a poll showing the YES men and women to be in the lead. Alarm spread through the (Eng)land and desperate measures were rushed forward. All three main British party leaders and their teams fled north on Wednesday, pushing even Prime Ministers' Questions aside. The trio didn't exactly stand together anywhere but were at least abroad in the same country at the same time,- just for a bit.

Dave probably flew in. Not risking even the refined streets of central Edinburgh he went to speak to a room full of financial people and then swept away back to the airport or station in a sleek Jag sandwiched between two sinister black 4x 4s containing his immediate support team and maybe other sinister people. He and his PR people must have been asleep to walk into the trap of being seen to jet in, speak to the besuited wealthy, and flee  back across the border as if there were not a moment to lose. With a name like Cameron you would think he might at least risk a cup of tea and a scone with a carefully selected and frisked pensioner or two in a Princes Street teashop and then take the new highly over budget and years late billion pound tram, naturally swept of bugs, bombs, YES folk and common people in general to the airport, or at least just up the road for show.

We didn't see Ed arrive either but his frightening backup team were seen riding in the comfort of state owned East Coast Rail. There was no sign of any class branding in the TV pictures but First Class headrest covers are routinely removed when the Labour inner circle are on board. He did though stay on until Friday though also well protected by heavies from any real conflict or the uncommitted. There wasn't much point in going back to Westminster as the next day, Tnursday, it was tuck boxes at the door time again as it broke up for another months' hols for the Party Conference and party season,- and the Referendum of course.

Nick's mode of arrival and departure are totally unknown but somehow he popped up in the old LibDem David Steele sort of heartlands around the borders. Good choice maybe. As these counties back onto England it's relatively easy to slip back there along the back roads and river banks if the YES dogs get close and threatening. Quite what he said we can't remember but something about more independence within the UK anyway and of course a few more free this and that.

Whether this raid by the three worthies did anything to steady or increase the NOs isn't yet clear but, like the YES people all of them probably enjoyed being out of Westminster, even if just for a day or two.

What being out of Westminster for ever means is still unclear if one were to rely on the claims and counter claims of either side. Sadly the debate isn't about grand visions for the future of Scotland or the UK. None of our politicians seems to have any of those -or even consider them desirable. It's all about "how much?" and "Our wonderful NHS" which in socialist Scottish and New Old Labour eyes should see no change, even for the good , regardless of any shortcomings or poor performance in any sphere.

The ebullient Salmond, chest further expanded and swagger the more alarming by the day stood in front of a banner proclaiming it was all about Scottish decisions being made in Scotland. To most of the British onlookers beyond the borders they already are,- and not just the Scottish ones either. Scottish MPs vote on English issues and generally the country punches well above its weight in the UK as well as providing a pretty good proportion of Prime Ministers, Ministers and Shadow Ministers. The 1997-2010 Blair/Brown government is a good, if not excellent, example. Does Mr Salmond not understand that if he gets his way next Thursday and manages to persuade the EU to grant Scotland quick entry under some kind of grandfather rights he and his eight million citizens will then just have swapped being subject to Westminster (which in reality they have scarcely been for years)- they will now be a minnow among the 27 or so states of Europe. Nice Mr Junker will replace the hated Cameron as the real boss of Scotland and he will do what Mrs Merkells on the one hand and the tells him to do. Financially he will have no choice but to accept the euro and the European Central Bank  as his controllers rather then sterling and the Bank of England.

Does that look like more independence to more power for Edinburgh to plough its own furrows and determine its own destiny? It gives Mr Salmond and his friends more opportunity to (expensively) strut their stuff and ride in nice limos across the Channel but does it really make the proud nation more powerful or better off in any way than it is now?

Our view remains that, away from all the emotion, (which is where the voters need to be between now and marking their papers)  the Scotland's departure from the UK would detract from both countries. British politics, behaviours ( too often dull and negative) and vision (lack of) need a dramatic shakeup but not this one. 

Scotland the Brave...It's going to have to be if.....

... the numbers in the present blindfolded sleep walk towards the pro-independence "Yes" vote precipice continue to grow.

It's all very well many Scottish residents feeling good about the country after not too bad a summer(anything less than dire is quite good), a successful and good humoured Commonwealth Games, the stimulating and entertaining Edinburgh Festival and Fringe and countless heartwarming and stirring ceilidh's with singing and plentiful refreshment far into hazy late light evenings. From that happy state of mind a heady "Why not give it a go" feeling can gently wash over the smiling voter who then sets foot for the polls full of national enthusiasm and optimism. The X goes on the paper and they stride out, maybe back to the pub for the hair of the dog.

The next morning on waking to initial results indicating it's a "Yes" for independence it all might suddenly feel terribly different. A mistake maybe. What then? Can we predict something like the morning after any very cheery and well fuelled party. "Oh my God. We're on our own. Did my vote make the difference?Was it me?"

 The second TV debate went badly for the Darling  the"No" man  who did much better in the first. The "Yes" leaning BBC Scotland's studio audience had helped give the shouty SNP leader the impression of having "won". That though is just one debate and  should be meaningless in the context of the real big issue.

The big issue. There's the rub. There's little sign of it. Anywhere. Not just in this debate. There's little about what what the UK really is how and why it punches above its weight internationally, the advantages to Scots ( and everyone else) of being an integral part of a bigger entity in which the country and its people have played a prominent part for several centuries. There has been nothing about the scope the UK gives for wider and better employment and powerful roles. This absence of well drawn pictures of the real big issues has allowed the debate to descend into the narrow cul de sacs of health ("our" NHS) and to a lesser extent education, benefits, free this and that and whether Scots are a few hundred quid a year better off one way or the other. Then there is also the "Let's make the country Tory proof" which appeals across both the "Yes" and "No" camps and pushes some of the latter into the former. Forget that. Scotland is Tory- proof anyway. It's a state of mind thing and includes things like a paranoia about privatisation and countless things that could deliver modernisation. Like many of the country's perceived ills these things are wrapped up in a bundle and dropped at Margaret Thatcher's feet.

Objectively the the current greater UK normally works pretty well for all its constituent parts. It's not perfect or going to satisfy everyone and the north v the south and London arguments are just as valid points for debate as the ones about Scottish independence. In reality the Scots, with their own parliament,  have a large amount of freedom already without the downsides of being on their own .They will certainly get more after the Referendum whatever the outcome.

Even now it looks as if "NO" should come in with a majority ,even if a slim one. If it doesn't it's going to take a very brave heart to genuinely say through that morning after hangover "That's wonderful". The even worse news is that five or ten years down the line the sufferer is likely to be saying "Why on earth did we do that?" Then that awful rebuff:  "Too late".

Meanwhile down south, with Ed Miliband in his bid to woo the Scottish left promising us all a high tax socialist nightmare, the English may well be shouting "Vote Yes" but that's another story. We will come back to it.

They said it,- The Mayor of Calais.

British citizens have known it for a long time, politicians of all major parties deny it but now Natacha Bouchard the Mayor of Calais has said it.

Britain's immigration laws,-and couple that to its benefits regime,- makes the country an Eldorado to prospective immigrants. Add in the fact that thanks to a plethora of very human rights based laws and judgments and an oversupply of lawyers who deal in such matters, few who reach the country's shores are ever actually deported. Rights to a family life, belonging to a group that is under pressure at home,being guilty of murder in a country which still has capital punishment all guarantee being able to stay once you've arrived and uttered the magic words "asylum" at the border, usually a well marked line in arrivals halls. No wonder Ms Bouchard, faced with the long term problem of accomodating and feeding the growing queues of people awaiting their chance to climb aboard or even underneath a UK destined lorry is saying enough is enough and the British must do something about it. In the meantime there is talk of the French setting up a centre in Calais to advise the hopefuls on how to maximise their chances of a successful plea for asylum. It's unlikely that, having got this far, they need it but it's the thought that counts.

Britain's greatest success in reducing immigration has come through classifying students as immigrants. Very few actually have any intention of staying much beyond their education and any subsequent allied training. They support themselves and don't ask for state benefits. They and their visiting parents make a major contribution to the national economy while studying and their early links can be of lifelong benefit to the country in subsequent years. Their immediate fees also do a lot to finance and maintain Britain's highly successful private education industry. Just the sort of people to keep on a tight rein then while Calais remains and open tunnel (or ferry) mouth.

One might hope for Dave, Nick and Ed to also say it how it is. Dream on. That needs political boldness and honesty. Don't you know there's an election coming? Unfortunately for them,- and ultimately the electorate,- that nice Mr Farage down the pub might take a different line.

European Presidential Hubris and......

 The EU Commission's  recently appointed President, Jean-Claude Junker has indicated that the UK is unlikely to secure one of the top jobs it seeks when they are carved out/up next weekend. He is it seems upset that there are not enough females in the top positions. Unlike last time around, Britain has not put forward a female candidate. "Unfortunately, and despite MY (the capitals are ours) repeated request, most of the governments insist on sending male candidates."

Just who is the unelected (other than  by a show of hands around a table by EU leaders) chief civil servant of the EU imagine he is to be laying down the law on gender balances or imbalances? It is not beyond imagination that most eligible women are too sensible to want anything to do with these posts. It is certainly insufficient grounds for blocking the candidates from senior or desired roles. He may not like it but his job is to work with whoever the member states nominate and this should be made very clear to him before he and the Commission rush further out of control.

This latest intervention by EU's leading beaurocrat says all one needs to know about why the enormous Brussels machine needs urgent reform before it leaves Earth's orbit and spins into outer space powered by hubris and the endless money which is an overhead on the cost of everything that is made or done in Europe. In its original form as a Common Market, the organisation had a valid purpose in facilitating intra-European trade and adding value. Once France and Germany's underlying agenda of creating a political federation led by themselves broke cover it began its trajectory to becoming an ever increasing constraint and liability on everything Europe did. Europe's wealth lies in its enormous diversity of cultures, geography, and political and economic systems. To crush these under foot ,-something that in a nightmare scenario could end up in the future being done militarily,- is disastrous. Underperformance and poverty lie in a monolothic, one size fits all, superstate ruled autocractically, indeed dictatorially, from a single centre riding arrogantly and roughshod over these differences. The politically misconceived single currency is just one example of what happens when uniformity is imposed.

The arch-federalist Mr Junker is stepping way outside his remit in trying to dictate to member states who, or what sort of person, they should put up for the Commissioner roles. Misguidedly and sitting deep inside the Brussels non reality bubble , he sees these appointments as HIS Vice-Presidents or deputies , not as the EU's. In other words he has (alarmingly quickly) taken to seeing the EU as his property rather than that of the member states, some of whom, notably the UK, he clearly doesn't like and treats with scorn. Only a hand wringing Nick Clegg, oblivious of the real issues and always willing to subjugate national interests to those of the federalists, could come out in favour of Mr Junker's attempts to lay down the law on the kinds of candidates put forward by governments,- and he has done.

Already it appears that David Cameron may be beginning to back away from making a big issue of this one. His nominee, the virtually unknown although maybe very competant Lord Hill, will be said to be happy with any role. Commissioner for Car Parking would be spun from Downing Street as a British triumph. That's how things currently are on the sea of pre-election aimlessness. All three main parties lack a helmsman or maybe even a rudder. Even the Scottish independence debate has descended into a squabble about details rather than the big issues of the pros and cons for everyone of the UK remaining intact. No sign of big pictures or the ability to generate excitement and forward momentum anywhere although the goal mouths are wide open for anyone who does.

Headline of the Day....

"Lib Dems want compulsory sex classes"- The Times.

Where does one even start to comment?

A Levels-The rewards of success for their architect.

-This year's A Level grades were very good despite tightening up the sylabus and marking (although the overall " pass" rate above grade F is still 98%).

-There is a much better social distribution of top grades than previously so more less well off students will be  going to good universities.

-There are 30,000 additional university places than last year thanks to increased government funding.

Much of this success story is down to Michael Gove, summarily replaced as a supposed electoral liability by the new "Peace in our Time-I love teachers" lady.  Students and their parents might like to join Mr Gove in reflecting on the justice or otherwise of being thrown out of office for being disliked by those to whom any  reforms of a too often  underperforming state educational system are abhorrent.

Unfortunately the executioner, David Cameron, marooned on an island of lack of feeling for realities outside his own close knit circle and advisors, has by ditching one of his best and most loyal performers, again devalued his own leadership.

Footnote: Another area in which British politics is currently flying blind is foreign affairs. Few/none of our leading politicians has a deep experience of or even interest in matters beyond our shores. Perhaps if they took their families on holiday to places further afield than Spain, Portugal and Italy (yes, that's Dave, Nick and Ed this month) they might just start to sniff, smell, feel and even understand a wider world. It will take time but it's never too late to start. Meanwhile sorry to anyone threatened with genocide in these holiday months,- we just can't get our heads around it. It's all too much.

ISIS-Britain Flexes Its Muscles.

Following today's very limited US attacks on Isis militants "to protect American nationals and interests", -note no mention of the 100,000 or more Iraqis facing threats of imminent genocide,- the UK has weighed in.

Definately no military intervention but a couple of million pounds worth of tents, solar powered lighting, meals and bottled water. That's a big comfort. At least people can be slaughtered in tents, aided maybe by electric light and having had a portion of a meal and a gulp or two of water. There are a few more millions going to charities "already on the ground". Unfortunately there is no sign of any in the affected areas. Never mind. At least when its all over and its safe to venture out of Baghdad or wherever they are holed up they will be able to afford to get to the scene of whatever has happened in more, newer and shinier 4x4s.

Isis must be quaking in its shoes.

Didn't we do well..................Afghanistan "Rebuilding".

The Times reports that the cost of "rebuilding" Afghanistan has now exceeded that of the post WW2 Marshall Plan for rebuilding Europe. The US has forked out £61.5 billion since 2002 and the UK(which actually spent its Marshall Plan money on social engineering in setting up the NHS rather than actual engineering) has thrown in £890 million.

 Those sums are on top of the actual military operations on which the US has spent a staggering £296 billion and the UK £22 billion.

In both cases one is entitled to ask "For what?"

In both cases the answer has to be "Nothing" or at best "Very, very, little".

Between the western allies, actually mainly the US and UK, we have destroyed Afghanistan's infrastructure, failed to put in place a stable non corrupt and Taliban-proof government and in the process lost and had maimed for life large numbers of our own soldiers.

With all the redevelopment money spent we might expect to see a new, disciplined, well trained and effective armed and police forces, a network of excellent highways, new, well equipped school,hospitals and power stations as well as replacements for shattered homes. In other words a fine new model state working robustly and able to stave off any future attempts by the Taliban or others to put the clock back.

Instead the US watchdog on Government spending is said by the Times to have reported that most of the projects are undermined by poor planning,shoddy construction, mechanical failures and inadequate oversight. In other words there is precious little to show for the billions and what there is is unlikely to last long before collapsing or breaking down, probably for ever. The same continues to go for most misguided foreign aid but that's another story. Our legacy in both human and physical terms will be dismal.

 As we have said before, anyone with any idea of Afghan history, its social /tribal history or anything to do with it would have said that at the beginning and never have embarked on this adventure. Even a flight over the country tells most people that idealistic visions of democratic, or indeed any unified, rule have any chance of realisation. Despite that the UK ,led by the US and the Bush/Blair relationship, did. In the British parliament barely a voice against was raised against it by anyone in any party. Most were actively supportive with the grave tones and seriously furrowed brows which are intended to denote deep understanding and wisdom at such times. Even now most of our politicians, terrified of accusations that they have thrown away hundreds of British and many more Afghan lives for nothing,- as they have,- remain in denial. They mutter things about it all having been worth it. It hasn't. Worse, having created this mess (Yes, Mr Blair) we will now blame the Afghans for not resolving it and we will walk away leaving them to their fate. 

Clegg wrings his hands. ( ps That's not new)

Today's Times has plenty to send sane readers reaching for the nearest bucket. The prize for cringeworthiness must though go to the soon-to-go on hols Nick Clegg..

Talking about educational policy following the unceremonious and dubiously motivated departure of Michael Gove, possibly the highest achieving and certainly most energetic member of the Cameron cabinet, Nick has been speaking. "We need to reset the relationship (between government and the teaching unions), not I should stress by abandoning all government policy or reforms, but by ensuring that where there is debate and discussion between the teaching profession and the government, it is conducted in a spirit of mutual respect and that we seek out every opportunity to celebrate, and not always to denigrate, the fantastic work that teachers do."

Taking the last bit first, we note the absence between the words " that" and "teachers" the word "good". That's crucial. Everybody knows that good and excellent teachers are magnificent. Most also know that a minority are not good, not good at all. It's probably always been thus but it's an issue that has in the interests of the affected children to be tackled head on, however loud the howls of protest by the militant unions. Poor performance must never be celebrated. It simply can't be tolerated and everyone has to be aware of that. Good teachers will applaud being relieved of the burden of the inadequate ones. They, the good ones, the school heads, the pupils and most parents will know who they are but the unions will usually defend through thick and thin their "right" not to be sacked. That's absurd and not in the interests of the majority of the members who they are also meant to represent.

Then there are the weasel words  about not abandoning all government policy or reforms. Note the word all. It is key. Here Clegg is opening an avenue of comforting compromise to Gove's change resistant adversaries. He is cynically implying that, given a shot, the Lib Dems would be ready to curry favour with the supply side of the educational establishment by retreating from at least some of the reforms. He's giving no guarantees though. That would require balls, -and not of the Ed variety,- and he will always keep his on the fence. No wonder both major political parties fear having to do some sort of deal with his party after the next General Election. It is quite possible that neither would now contemplate a new coalition and would instead go for a minority government which would then go for an overall majority in a new election maybe six months later. In retrospect this is probably what the Conservatives should have done in 2010 as losing a second election against the spectre of a possible return of Gordon Brown should have been unthinkable.

Finally there are the words about "mutual respect", a very fashionable concept. Everyone it is said deserves respect or in some circles respek .The notion of it having to be earned rather than taken for granted is absent. The obsession with giving equal weight to,shall we say less well formed, ideas to as much more considered ones is of course very politically correct as well as nice , warm and fuzzy. It goes a long way to explaining why getting a lot of things done is a glacial process and why even some of the most energetic eventually lapse into tears and despair.

It seems that Mr Clegg chooses to fail to understand that a 5 year parliament is a very short period of time. Tony Blair had the same problem in his first term. He had some great and widely supported ideas on public service reform but thought he had all the time in the world to deliver them. He didn't. Iraq hove into sight at the beginning of his second term .That was the end of time and energy to focus on his original programme and what could have been a great political legacy began to turn to dust.  Michael Gove though understood it perfectly. To achieve anything it must be complete and robustly nailed into place within the five years, or it might never happen. That's why he came out of the trap fast, didn't waste too much time, trampled on a few feet but got his measures as far down the track as quickly as he could before Cameron's wobbly knees and Australian "How to Win" adviser derailed him.

As joint leader of the coalition, Clegg should be saying he's full of admiration for what Gove achieved and that if anyone thought that his departure indicated a government withdrawal from the hard parts they could think again as the reforms are here to stay. Instead, sadly increasingly true to form ,he opportunistically went into MCavity "I wasn't here mode". Expect to see more of that as the General Election approaches. 

Half way through the year...................

We are half way through 2014, heading into the British mid summer holiday-strewn time of year. How are we doing? (Let's leave sport out of this).

Already the Iraq mess looks worse by the day and intransigent President Maliki makes a unified solution ever more difficult. At home Andy Coulson has been banged up for phone hacking, albeit probably in a nice prison for the better classes of criminal rather than the real thing ,while all his co-defendents have been found not guilty. On the troublesome sports field the almost pointless England World Cup team headed home to Luton on their charter after their final defeat by diminutive Puerto Rico a team rated lower than Scotland in the Fifa ( that fine body of men) tables. What more can go wrong? Probably quite a lot actually but let's not be too miserable. It's mid summer after all.

Back to Iraq. Despite the excesses of Saddam and the Baath Party weren't the Sunnis the west's best friends back in the days of Saddam? Not now. The extreme and fundamentalist organisation, Isis, has swept out of Syria and across northern Iraq leaving a bloody trail of murder in its wake and promising more for its opponents throughout the country.Using terror to subjugate its opponents and settle old scores is a primary weapon. No peace and reconciliation on their part. Indeed Isis has named itself as the successor to the Ottoman Empire and declared a "Caliphate" across a swathe of Syria and Iraq , while warning Muslims everywhere that they are now the boss and they had better get in line and do whatever the charming new Caliph tells them. That fortunately is unlikely but they have been extremely successful in marking out a domain and describing their ultimate ambitions (Watch out Spain). Meanwhile women are banished back to the home, most forms of pleasure are forbidden and mosques of rival groups are being demolished. The fate of any remaining Christians, their freedoms and buildings is clear.

There isn't much sign of peace and reconciliation from President Maliki either . His army has gone on the rampage and indulged in retaliatory killings of Sunnis. Not a wonderful response if he wants to keep the country together. He needs every friend or at least neutral he can  get and to be pushing for national unity if for no other reason than to encourage America to do more to keep his head out of the Isis noose.His actions don't make it easy for anyone to help him and just to rub the point in the Kurds, historically badly treated by everbody,  have staked out their share of the country and plenty of oil.

In the field of peace and reconciliation, post Arab Spring Egypt isn't doing any better. Again , rather than talk about peace and reconciliation President al Sisi is sharpening divisions between supporters of ousted democratically elected though equally divisive President Morsi .

Next door to the left in Libya, nasty but stable under Gadaffi, chaos and loss of life continues. To the right Israel and Hammas have escalated mutual provocation with Hammas looking determined to provoke Israel into serious bloodshed ,-probably mainly of its own people but the leadership has never cared much about that,- in an attempt to up the ante.

That's the Middle East.

Back home politics are already mired in what is going to be a long and tedious drag towards the General Election in May next year. From the autumn onwards it is going to look increasingly like a World War 1 battlefield.

We have just had what looks very much like a media-manufactured passport crisis. People,inevitably mainly hard working families spending the last of their hard earned cash on a holiday, have been finding that new passports have been taking longer than usual to come through. That's not surprising at this time of year and by shouting "crisis" from the rooftops the media have done their best to create one. Applications "inexplicably" surged in June and now the wait is another week or two. No surprise there. What would you do if you want to travel in say November? Yes, you've done it. Shout about a crisis and you make one.

This hulabaloo disappeared almost as quickly as it arrived when the perceived much bigger opportunity to castigate David Cameron came into sight. The dull, grey, Eurocrat, Luxemburg's Mr Junker, was about to become President of the EU. Few leaders actually wanted him. Some, including Merkel had indicated that they would help Cameron to block him but come the day they melted away and let something everybody knew wasn't the right answer happen. All very EU and exasperating to Cameron and most of thinking UK Plc.(that isn't all of it) to whom this spat exemplified much of what is wrong with the organisation. In the almost certain knowledge that he would lose the battle and it being too late to go back to a softly softly behind the curtains campaign, Dave went for broke and forced a vote. The result was that he stood alone. Howls of protest from the usual suspects including the CBI whose only interests here are those about their perception of what's good for business. They have none in the fundamental question of sovereignty and nor have Labour or the LibDems. Two these two Europe is a nice socialist place.  The reality is that the tactic was as good as any and better than many. By forcing a crisis Cameron is more likely to get something out of the whole affair than he would wringing his hands and begging for scraps of comfort from the overladen EU table. He does need though to reposition the argument . It should not be about concessions for Britain. it should be about a looser, much more free EU for everyone. The target should be the hugely expensive overweight and stifling apparatus which in business terms is simply an enormous overhead and most of all the ditching of the idea of an eventual European mega-state .No majority of its citizens anywhere has ever voted for that.

The next sky filling issue to roll in has been allegations of the "establishment" stifling reporting and evidence of widespread child abuse in high places until at least the 1980s. A wide ranging top level enquiry has been set up to expose who was up to what. All well and good but it will take a lot of time and many millions of pounds. There is also the risk that it will distract attention and resources from probing what is going on here and now, something instinctively popular with politicians. Its conclusions are likely to be pretty much what everybody already knows.  The "establishment" , including the aristocracy, political parties, the churches, schools (private boarding in particular) , and other high level enclosed groups, have indulged in some bad behaviours for centuries. These have been covered up directly and indirectly (He's terribly influential you know") enforced silence and a muzzled police force. Any career minded police officer will have been made very aware of cases where the message is "Go no further".

 Given a free shot  these powerful groups, now reinforced with some very sensitive celebrities, would keep it that way as we have seen from their promotion and support of  the media muzzling proposals coming out of the Leveson report. It is only recently that 24 hour rolling news coverage, a breakdown in respect for authority and authorities of all kinds has led to high level coverups and blindness being seriously challenged.

Rumours of a cabinet reshuffle have been flying about for some time now and Monday 14th July looks like the date. Inevitably pure rumour has been added to by leaks, one courtesy of a loudly spoken mobile "I'm on the train" conversation by a young lady out to impress her fellow travellers. Why do these people do it? We constantly hear details of confidential upcoming contracts, the transgressions of Flossie or Bill who "just can't hack it" who come Monday are about to be fired. Too much information. Unless we are a competitor or a friend of Flossie or Bill,- which we might be,- we just don't want to know. Back to this Monday it looks as if Dave will be out to convince that he has no problems with women. The boys had therefore better not get too excited. It's not entirely about best person for the job.

Whatever the cabinet looks like by Monday evening , the reshuffle and a few new smiling faces are very unlikely to deal with a problem currently common to the top of all three parties. The Conservative and Labour leaders are surrounded by small coteries of long standing trusted mates, some going back to school days. Nick Clegg on the other hand is surrounded by 20 paid advisors. Maybe his supposed old mates perhaps either don't exist or are suspected as maybe having long knives in their pockets. In all three cases the result is that the men themselves are seen as remote from other MPs, let alone party members. They are surrounded by a wall of gatekeepers and minders who keep the boss free of contamination by real contact with lesser mortals. The everlasting stage managed meetings between political suits and the masses in the form of teachers, nurses, smarty turned out factory workers etc don't hack it. The masses aren't daft.

Any new ministers will not have much time to be be seen displaying their wisdom, gravitas and deservedness on live TV before Parliament breaks up for its very long summer recess/hols. School,- which many of its members have never mentally left those days behind so they are still free to think in terms of prefects, sports and even the occasional beatings,- breaks up on July 30th. It does not then return with its tuck boxes and suntans from overseas fact finding tours until 13th October. The prefects and pupils ,all of course strictly ranked by seniority, then have to manage nearly a whole month before the Half Term Exeat begins on 11th November. After that, hey ho, it's just a month until they head home for Christmas.

Thumbnail guide to Britain's Euro Elections outcomes.

- Contrary to expectations nobody other than the LibDems got a bloody nose. The percentage take of the votes and the resultant numbers of MEPs came to:

                                                      %                                        MEPs

UKIP                                         27.49                                      24
Labour                                       25.40                                      20
Conservative                             23.93                                     19
Greens                                        07.87                                     03
Lib Dem                                     06.87                                      01

-Although  Labour on the left  came out marginally ahead of the Conservatives, the combined Conservative and UKIP vote on the right soundly beat them by gaining 51.42 of the total share and 43 MEPs against 20
Even the cave dwelling Greens did better than the LibDems. The message here is that if anyone on the right thinks they are likely to get what they want by voting UKIP at the General Election in May 2015 they are going to be sorely disappointed. All they will achieve is a socialist , interventionist tax and spend Labour government, something the majority clearly don't want. Even less will they like the resultant Prime Minister, Ed Milliband who clearly doesn't like them.

-The UKIP win, much hyped in advance and since by the media, should not yet cause too much hysteria and panic in the ranks of any party. Its ingredients are too complex and mixed in likely lifespan to benefit from kneejerks. Careful and wise (now that might be a problem) consideration over the summer is required. One factor affecting a string of constituencies along the line of Britain's major north-south high speed railway line HS2 is how those Conservative voters who opted for UKIP because they opportunistically oppose the project will vote next year. As above, if these people really insist on voting UKIP out of rail-rage all they will do is to let Labour, whose project it originally was  in. If that happens HS 2 will still go ahead but possibly with some cost saving reductions by reducing Chiltern and other landowner- protecting tunnels and cuttings. Labour doesn't much care for the vociferous rural lobby and why shouldn't the Liverpudlians, Mancunians be able to enjoy the much vaunted outstanding scenery they will pass through in their hundreds of thousands?

-Nigel Farage comes over as a man of the people, the sort of bloke anyone could have a good chat with anywhere. He's also the sort of man who you would be likely to meet in the pub, cafe, bus, anywhere. None of the Party leaders get anywhere near that. As result much of what they say, however good or bad is simply filtered out. People stop listening. They are not taken in by carefully arranged and managed PR photoshoots in schools and hospitals (mainly) and selected faux "man of the people" surroundings and they certainly don't like feeling they are being spoken down to.

- David Cameron opens his mouth too often about too many issues ranging from football managers to anything else he thinks might make him look as if he is feeling people's pain, whatever it is. Dave is probably a nice enough bloke, has limited life experiences outside his own small coterie and caste and is never going to break out of that mould. He is an average manager, not a leader and certainly not a man driven by a vision of Britain and the world in 50, 25 ,10 years time or probably even tomorrow morning.

-Ed Milliband isn't a forward looking visionary either. Any vision he has is from the rear view mirror. He is stuck in the same old grooves. His Marxist father sits heavily on one shoulder and Unite's Len McClusky on the other. Both are people of the past and both drag him there too. When faced with any situation he can only trot out the same old phrases designed, through constant repetition,to take insidious root in the electorates' sub conscious. Increasingly though they irritate and make said electors feel an urge to throw up. How many more times must we hear "The cost of living crisis" , "Hard working families" (what about hard working singles, bone idle families etc?), "For the many not the few" and the rest. Apart from the cost of living crisis many of the rest go back to Gordon Brown's time. Didn't he do well? Do people really, really want a re-run?

Nick Clegg was beaten and truly routed but has so far held up remarkably well against the subsequent LibDem plots, attempted coups, rumours of deep divisions and disloyalties. Such things are the substance of top level or even bottom level (something maybe we should be careful of talking about unless we stray into other contraversial territory) politics. Every politician needs to keep firmly in sight former UK diplomat Percy Craddock's warning: "It isn't the other side you've got to worry about. It's your own." The same goes in much of business and industry but that's another story. It's very lonely at the top and real friends are very few. Caesar may have be the best known to be surprised by Brutus but the tally of Bruti grows relentlessly.

Next up in the elections game is the Newark by-election this week. Here the focus is on an older UKIP candidate versus a shiny new young wealthy, London based Tory boy straight out of standard box. When will they ever learn? A UKIP win against a      Tory majority is almost unthinkable but..................... This could be the tail and of the Euro election UKIP bubble. Then comes the will they, won't they, debate over whether the UKIP vote is just a one-off protest against the current state of UK politics and politicians with their attendant whiffs of  shallowness, greed, self interest, lack of vision and class issues or whether it is something more deep rooted. In some areas it probably is here to stay at least for a while. In others, voters should think very carefully about what they really want and who/what they are really voting for. Certainly the most likely effect of a big UKIP vote in may 2015 is a Milliband-led Labour government. One way to ensure HS2 and another London runway is built maybe as that is where they were in 2010, but the downsides to another 5 years (at least ) of Brownite style government may not be something at the top of everyone's list of preferences. 

Thought for the day...............

................... for service providers and manufacturers.

If you can do it right why do it wrong?

Thumbnail Guide to Britain's Euro Elections.

It's pretty difficult to imagine an event causing less excitement than next week's elections to the European Parliament. What looks like a tragedy for democracy is simply a reflection of the fact that few believe that the European Parliament is really anything about democracy and that it anything but a rubber stamp for decisions taken totally undemocratically by the European Commission who listen only to the heads of France and Germany but otherwise more or less cook up whatever they want to in the furtherance of the thing Britain has never believed in-"Ever closer (political) unity".

Some will go to the polls if only to give the current trio of lacklustre and uninspiring main party political leaders a kicking by voting for UKIP whose only assets are an excellent speaker in the form of Nigel Farage who also comes over as a human sort of bloke who speaks an  intelligible language. This is something none of the others are or do  His other big plus is that fact that he is "None of the above".

So what are all the leaflets saying to urge us into the empty polling booths and then bothering to do anything other than spoil our ballots? Write-ins are not acceptable so scrawling "Plonker" in any box disenfranchises you for this session.

First leaflet though the door was the GREENS offering all sorts of rights including not to be make to work too hard,  not to be eaten too often (if you are an animal), and not to be able to read on still nights when the windmills aren't going round. They were pretty hot on everybody being virtuous, shifting cash from those who create or make wealth to those who don't and generally living a pretty chilled out life and in winter a very chilled out one as all those nasty power stations will have closed. Nice sunlit uplands for all then. Their leaflet is now on its way to recycling,- as they would wish.

Next in were the LIBDEMS. Yes, they are having a go. Read their stuff. They are making a difference. Stopping Tories being nasty. Dishing out hot school meals. Cost,- what's that? Also keen on recycling. OK folks. Thankyou. Your wish is met.

LABOUR sent a pic of Ed. Not sure why they bother in rural Bucks though handy down the pub as an extra feature on the dart board. Gets a good laugh though. Talked about the cost of living crisis. Don't they target their leaflets by area or maybe they've never been to rural Bucks?

Then in came Nige and UKIP. Great colours purple and yellow and they do stand out in the fields among the rapeseed flowers at this time of year.  Nige is good in the pub and enjoys the unspeakable sin of a fag (no we aren't talking of past top public school goings on here) so knows how to come over as the man to make a difference. God help us if he were ever able to but that's another story. He knows his markets so the Chiltern version of his bit of recycling trumpets his opposition to HS 2 tearing the life and soul out of a strip of land about 50 yards wide and twelve miles long through a part of the hills unparalleled  in beauty except for in the next valley, and he next, and the next. By taking this stance,-which will get him votes is these hills,- he identifies himself as standing alongside the GREENS, something that couldn't be further from his dreams. The fact is that they and he are "Do nothing, Change nothing, Hurrah for Old England and warm ale" parties. Off to the bin with this one though many households will treasure it and his party is likely to get the biggest vote and therefore the most British MEPs. If anyone wanted an argument against proportional representation that's a pretty good one.

Last, just today came the CONSERVATIVES with pic of polished, groomed hair Dave looking very Dave. In fairness though he had something to say. He and his friends haven't grasped the most powerful argument is that they really want to stay in Europe but a Europe changed for ALL participants, not just Britain. A Europe once and for all shorn of the "Ever closer union" dream of the hard core and ever more powerful unelected and dictatorial Eurocrats. That's the real Tory argument. They just don't put it across right. However, like them or not, they are the only party offering an alternative to grovelling subservience ("because of the jobs") to an increasingly powerful ,dictatorial and hugely expensive (= massive overhead on everything EU members do, making them ever less competitive in the world) centralising monster. For that reason there is no option but to give them the X on the day and hope for the best. Their blurb though, including the pic of Dave, can join the rest in the recycling bin.

Oh dear Dave...

Our Prime Minister's PR antennae, seldom wonderful, seem to have been extraordinarily anaesthetised lately. He will never be a man of the people. He just isn't one but nor is Ed or little Nick.They can't help it .None of them have ever really ever been out and about with real ones. As result he has always struggled a bit with understanding human reactions outside the various bubbles he has inhabited (Eton, Oxford, PR, Westminster) . Usually though advisers have managed to steer him around the deeper potholes.

Not these last couple of weeks.

First there was the visit to John Lewis and his speech to staff saying that generally he only shopped at Waitrose because, to paraphrase down to the real meaning, he found a better class of people there. To rub it in and make sure that Sainsbury staff and customer understood the reality he went on to say that he only used their Chipping Norton branch because the town didn't have Waitrose. Not clever for a man whose biggest albatross is a common belief that he and his party are toffs and only really for toffs.

Then there has been the case of Culture Secretary, Maria Miller and her slightly overpaid accomodation allowance.  The independent parliamentary commissioner for standards recommended that she should repay £ £45,000 .This was reduced to £5,800  by the Parliamentary Standards Committee whose three non MP lay members have no vote . No reasons were given, at least publicly .They also found that her attitude to the investigation had breached the parliamentary code of conduct and insisted that she apologise to the Commons. She obliged flatly in 34 seconds flat. In length and style that simply wasn't good enough . It raised a furore and gave the Opposition a sitting duck house. To make it worse and add to the damage, in an old style display of ranks closing around mates, many senior Tories defended Ms Miller in her decision not to resign her cabinet post. All seen as very honourable within the group maybe but Dave should have been told that this one was insensitive, potentially toxic and gaining hostile legs amongst a public whose distrust of politicians , and especially Tory ones, is a major issue. Here was the opportunity for him to square his jaw and say resolutely that he and the party had zero tolerance in these sorts of case and she must therefore go. Instead he flunked it and very went out on a very public limb by firmly supporting her. Today she has resigned . That makes Dave's support  an image tarnishing ,vote losing waste of time. He should have anticipated the end game and gone straight to it. The affair now becomes not just an understanding issue but one of judgement one too.  As a footnote Mr Cameron said he hoped she would be back in the cabinet in due course. Again, oh dear.

Parliament has just arrived at the Easter Recess and this afternoon members will be flowing out of the doors in end of term, caps in the air mode. There must be a sense of weary relief as they do so and a feeling in the Cameron camp that it hasn't come a moment too soon . The boss presumably at some stage will head for the harsh world of real life in the Cotswolds. Dangerous. He may have to go to Sainsburys for heaven's sake. 

Historic dessert at Windsor?

Last night HM Queen Elizabeth hosted a dinner at Windsor Castle for Irish President Higgins. Among the diners were representatives from Northern Ireland including former IRA commander Martin McGuinness.

The dessert may have raised an eyebrow or two:

"Vanilla ice cream bombe with Balmoral redcurrent centre"

Hmm.  Phillip's choice?

Posts on 1) Britain's High Speed Railway,HS 2 and 2) Aspects of and issues around MH 370

For posts on these two subjects please see our sister blog Airnthere either via www.airnthere.blogspot.com or simply Gooogle it.

Normal coverage of the world of politics and nonsenses will resume shortly.

Britain's health service ,-A question of service and professionalism

Twiga was summoned for a routine test at the local smart PFI-funded medical centre today. The unsurprising result was that a short consultation with the doctor is required. No problem one might think. The doctor's office is just along the corridor and he is said to do the admin on Wednesday afternoons. Isn't that the province of the recent additional overhead titled the "Business Manager"? What does he do? God knows,- or may not. Sorry no appointments available before mid April says the receptionist and no bookings are being taken beyond that because the person who sets the programme up is away until next week .OK, well how about talking to him on the phone, the new sort of initial appointment anybody calling up gets?  "We've got a slot in ten days time".

That's the level of service,-seamless not,- now experienced day in and day out by the clients of what leading politicians of all parties call "Our wonderful NHS". Little Nick said the other day it was one of the things he loved about the UK. Ed and Dave are similarly dewy eyed whenever the three letters, N,H,and S come up. Fair enough ,it has served them well, and some parts are indeed excellent for everyone but its organisation and administration are particularly dire. All too often it simply doesn't understand that it is a service business. It is also highly unlikely that any of these three gents has recently had to enter its portals as a normal mortal and had to sit on hard plastic chairs in A&E awaiting the target time of four hours.

Not so long ago it was all very different. The local practice was housed in much smaller quarters, did a lot more for minor injuries (GP's surgeries generally don't do stitching now so send anything requiring it to A&E adding unnecessarily to the waiting times there.In South Africa many ordinary chemists have someone to do it). The doctors lived in or near the community, were on call 24/7 and patients seen on the day,- or night. That was part of the professionalism and ethos of being a doctor. They were reasonably but not excessively rewarded for their time and expertise . Years of sleepless nights came with the job, along with enormous respect among the population at large.

Then along came G.Brown driving his answer to everything and in reality nothing, the money sprayer .In came new contracts removing 24 hour responsibility (and with it the true essence of professionalism,) and giving a lot more money in exchange for a suffocating burocracy and external control and targets over almost every field of medical activity. The old notion of public service went out of the window and and although the doctors now feel much richer they and those they should be serving are actually a lot poorer. 

The EU and Britain- The simple issues.

For anyone groping for the nub of the problem Britain has always had with the EU, French President Francois Hollande has cone up with a quick reference statement giving absolute clarity.

"Initiatives for Europe must first be agreed between France and Germany".

There it is pure and simple.

The second issue is that whereas France and Germany both aim at an eventual political union into a kind of United States of Europe, initially probably federal and eventually centralised, Britain has never wanted more than a Common Market. That, apart from De Gaules' original veto of British membership is why Britain was much happier for a while to go with the alternative European Free Trade Area (EFTA). Unrealistic fears of exclusion from European markets led to the UK eventually seeking,-and gaining,- membership of the EU. This also resonated well with the British political left who saw it as the way to almost indelibly impose European based socialism on the country's society and economy.

Since joining the EU the question of eventual union has been the largely unspoken of elephant in the British living room. Politicians have left the issue under the carpet and remained in denial that EU legislation and other moves have been moving inexorably in a federalist direction leaving national parliaments increasingly in roles akin to those of large county councils.

Unless it gets to grips openly and publicly with the issues soon , the UK will find itself at the eleventh hour and fifty ninth minute that in its state of denial it has sleep walked it into an imminent political union. That's why the pressure is on for a Referendum. Unfortunately the way the issue has been tacked makes UK calls for renegotiation of treaties make it look isolationist and in conflict with the EU itself. A far better approach would be for it to declare itself pro-EU but a different EU in which a free trade and generally cooperative area and not political union the ultimate objective. Many other European nations, especially the Nordics, would be also be much happier with this than living under Mr Hollande's Franco-German superstate. Even Mrs Merkels and her electorate probably don't fancy living under or even alongside Mr Hollande.

British cancer cure rates low,- we design it that way.

British cancer survival and cure rates are some of the lowest in Europe . They are way below what could reasonably expected in a country whose National Health Service is second only to the Chinese military as the world's largest employer.

Why? No doubt large numbers of people across the NHS and in large government buildings will be looking into this question.

They don't have to look far for one basic fact.

The state's monopoly supplier of free health care has a target of  commencing treatment within 62 days,- that's two months,-of diagnosis. The simple fact is that every day lost in getting it under way can see the cancers grow or spread . This seriously diminishes the chances of a favourable outcome. The patients' chances of survival decrease by the day.

This is nothing to do with "the cuts". It's about processes, a lack of sense of urgency, administrative inefficiency, poor systems and systems management.

There is no non-human reason why the UK should be down there with the worst in Europe. The problem is that humans design and allow it it to be.

Midnight in the Gulf. A British politician's nightmare?

Britain's Foreign Secretary, William Hague, recently transited Dubai on his way home from a conference overseas.

Unfortunately he and his entourage were almost certainly whisked off the aircraft , away from the crowds, and straight into the VVIP lounge, to await their onward flight in opulent isolation. 

Like many politicians and even leading business people who travel the world but see and feel  nothing, they would have benefitted enormously from having instead sat in one of the coffee shops in the impressive, no expense spared glitzy main body of the building and surveyed the scenes around them. They would have found it a lot more interesting than the sterilised world of the lounge. While stirring their lattes they would have found that, even in the middle of the night, they were looking out at an endless stream of the world's population from its business people and professionals, holidaymakers to its contract workers of all descriptions criss-crossing the terminal and the world between flights north, south, east and west. Rich, poor, genders, occupations, nationalities, colours, religions. They are all there with a multitude of purposes. They have come from somewhere but need or want to be somewhere else, to find a job, make money,support or build better futures for their families, go on holiday, attend a family or business gathering, or just go home. Some are elated, some sad, some fresh and ready to go, others tired from long hours already spent en route .The dynamics of the world are on view as people stream and swirl around the terminals, escalators, shops, cafes,information desks. Around it all is energy, determination and a sense of purpose. And it's midnight or later.

Just lifting their eyes to the 24/7/365 departure boards would have been an education for the party too. Flights leaving all day and all night in a steady stream. Lists of destinations unknown to even Europe's busiest airports. The penny/cent might have dropped. You can go from almost anywhere in the world to almost anywhere else with just the one stop and a minimum of hassle via Dubai or increasingly its near neighbours, Abu Dhabi and Doha. And overtaking on the inside track there is fast growing Istanbul now the gateway to more international destinations than any other airport in the world.

Having taken this all in, Mr Hague and party might not have slept so well on the onward flight to London, timed of course so as not to get there during the night curfew. Had they dropped off , nightmares about interminable planning processes, everlasting environmental objections and debates including concerns about bats, newts, anything other than the human need to do business and to travel, all leading to unlikely-to-ever-to-be built 3rd runways at the world's former greatest international hub might have woken them up screaming in frustration and in a cold sweat. But then they might not. The civil servants in particular might have been breathing sighs of relief that nothing was likely to happen in their lifetime. To many of them that's what a successful career looks like.