Our American Twiga (giraffe) has been in an excellent position to look down upon the Mid Term elections. He would shake his head if he could but that's not so easy at the top end of a long neck. Rolling the eyes will have to do instead.
Firstly though let's just consider the strange world of the American democratic process. The President is elected for a four year term and, all going less than disastrously,- can expect two terms. That's a total of eight years. After that it's game over. He or she may not stand again. So far so good .The British experience is that towards the end of two terms, ten years here, the incumbent really should take a long holiday anyway. More than that is dangerous from almost everybody's point of view. Exhaustion or hubris have taken their toll and there is no gratitude from the waving crowds who cheered victory on Day 1. They've gone, moved on.
In the USA, even if the new President steps into the White house with a majority in both Houses, he or she has got just two years ,- that's eighteen months max before campaigning begins once more,- to make a favourable impact and get the important stuff done. After that come the mid terms at two years from "Go". Once those are over there is the risk of the President losing their majority in both Houses twice more before the end of the 8 years. Life is tough if one of them goes to the opposition and potentially dreadful if both do. That's what happened last week. President Obama, not looking as youthful as he did six years ago, has lost both Houses. Inevitably the label "Lame duck President" is stuck on him at every opportunity by a hostile and frequently gloating media. He can't feel wonderful about that.
So how does American Twiga see it? He says.
Ludicrous is the word for what is happening. Unfortunately the order of priority for pretty well all American politicians is first and foremost to get re-elected 2-4 years down the track. Way behind that comes supporting the base of the party and almost out of sight behind that there comes the idea of doing something for the country.
(That's not only true across the Atlantic is it?)
Some say we shouldn't blame the politicians. Blame the Voters. There's some truth in that. The USA has become more polarised than ever .Election strategies are no longer about persuading voters to switch allegiances but more about getting your own supporters to come out and vote and those of the other party to stay at home. That looks like the rationale behind the new laws requiring a photo-ID in some states. The poorer people don't have driving licences so need to go and get an official one. That costs $75 and they may have to travel 30 miles to get it, so they don't bother. These laws have been pushed forward in spite of the fact that there have only been a handful of cases of proven voter fraud in the past 50 years. No surprise that voter turnout was only 37% and down to 13% for the under 30s. Obama was on a hiding to nothing and yet these same people who hung him and his party out to dry by not turning out to vote are the ones who complain that the Republicans have prevented him from implimenting policies which would have helped them. Politics is a hard game that usually ends in tears. There is no gratitude to Obama for having at last brought in health care for millions of the previously excluded and having extricated most American troops and military expenditure from the disaster of Afghanistan. He promised those things and they were very much part of the wave of enthusiasm that swept him into the White House six years ago. He's gone almost white haired in delivering them and how is he rewarded ? The loss of both Houses for the final two years of his Presidency. One could forgive him for saying " ---- this for a game of soldiers,- I'm off". But he can't. Not audiably or visibly anyway.
It's hard to say what will happen now. Democrats in the Senate can still stop anything from passing by using filibusters, just as the Republicans have been doing very effectively. Or Obama can just veto anything he considers too drastic. Among those will be the sorts of things the Tea Party might push. The repeal of Obamacare would be the highest profile and designed to deprive him of any kind of legacy so he's not likely to sign that one. Unless therefore the Republicans decide to adopt a statesmanlike cooperative approach in the interests of showing the electorate that they are positive people who can get things done, expect more gridlock,and name calling inside Congress. Outside just rising disgust with Washington and politicians of all hues. The outcome of the 2016 elections may depend on which side makes the least errors of judgment. Again, some similarities with the eastern side of the Atlantic.
Firstly though let's just consider the strange world of the American democratic process. The President is elected for a four year term and, all going less than disastrously,- can expect two terms. That's a total of eight years. After that it's game over. He or she may not stand again. So far so good .The British experience is that towards the end of two terms, ten years here, the incumbent really should take a long holiday anyway. More than that is dangerous from almost everybody's point of view. Exhaustion or hubris have taken their toll and there is no gratitude from the waving crowds who cheered victory on Day 1. They've gone, moved on.
In the USA, even if the new President steps into the White house with a majority in both Houses, he or she has got just two years ,- that's eighteen months max before campaigning begins once more,- to make a favourable impact and get the important stuff done. After that come the mid terms at two years from "Go". Once those are over there is the risk of the President losing their majority in both Houses twice more before the end of the 8 years. Life is tough if one of them goes to the opposition and potentially dreadful if both do. That's what happened last week. President Obama, not looking as youthful as he did six years ago, has lost both Houses. Inevitably the label "Lame duck President" is stuck on him at every opportunity by a hostile and frequently gloating media. He can't feel wonderful about that.
So how does American Twiga see it? He says.
Ludicrous is the word for what is happening. Unfortunately the order of priority for pretty well all American politicians is first and foremost to get re-elected 2-4 years down the track. Way behind that comes supporting the base of the party and almost out of sight behind that there comes the idea of doing something for the country.
(That's not only true across the Atlantic is it?)
Some say we shouldn't blame the politicians. Blame the Voters. There's some truth in that. The USA has become more polarised than ever .Election strategies are no longer about persuading voters to switch allegiances but more about getting your own supporters to come out and vote and those of the other party to stay at home. That looks like the rationale behind the new laws requiring a photo-ID in some states. The poorer people don't have driving licences so need to go and get an official one. That costs $75 and they may have to travel 30 miles to get it, so they don't bother. These laws have been pushed forward in spite of the fact that there have only been a handful of cases of proven voter fraud in the past 50 years. No surprise that voter turnout was only 37% and down to 13% for the under 30s. Obama was on a hiding to nothing and yet these same people who hung him and his party out to dry by not turning out to vote are the ones who complain that the Republicans have prevented him from implimenting policies which would have helped them. Politics is a hard game that usually ends in tears. There is no gratitude to Obama for having at last brought in health care for millions of the previously excluded and having extricated most American troops and military expenditure from the disaster of Afghanistan. He promised those things and they were very much part of the wave of enthusiasm that swept him into the White House six years ago. He's gone almost white haired in delivering them and how is he rewarded ? The loss of both Houses for the final two years of his Presidency. One could forgive him for saying " ---- this for a game of soldiers,- I'm off". But he can't. Not audiably or visibly anyway.
It's hard to say what will happen now. Democrats in the Senate can still stop anything from passing by using filibusters, just as the Republicans have been doing very effectively. Or Obama can just veto anything he considers too drastic. Among those will be the sorts of things the Tea Party might push. The repeal of Obamacare would be the highest profile and designed to deprive him of any kind of legacy so he's not likely to sign that one. Unless therefore the Republicans decide to adopt a statesmanlike cooperative approach in the interests of showing the electorate that they are positive people who can get things done, expect more gridlock,and name calling inside Congress. Outside just rising disgust with Washington and politicians of all hues. The outcome of the 2016 elections may depend on which side makes the least errors of judgment. Again, some similarities with the eastern side of the Atlantic.
