Saturday, 5 October 2013

The Great American Shutdown- A Trans-Atlantic Twiga's view.


Are you mystified as to what is going on in the USA ? The people who lost the Presidential Election appear to be trying to hold to ransome the people who did. In so doing they negate the idea of democracy (for which they originally fought hard) by bringing the state aparatus as close to a standstill as they can. Next up will be the powers to increase national borrowing needed to fund ongoing expenditure. Apart from undermining the country's status as a long term trusted borrower, these measures will risk putting many citizens out of work, stop their pay and social security cheques and thereby threaten their livelihoods and homes. That doesn't seem to make any kind of sense for any political party.

While on this side of the Atlantic we shake our heads ,Twiga's North American fellow long necked quadripede, Andrew Lloyd-Williams, throws some light on the dismal scene of short term politics at its worst.

He comments...

Under the shutdown all government departments are required to furlough all employees unless the department has alternative sources of funding or the employees are "exempt",- ie performing emergency work involving the safety of human life or the protection of property or performing other types of exceptional work (See http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/guidance-for-shutdown-furloughs.pdf ).

Each department decides which employees are exempt so decisions will vary.Often the choice is a political one-furloughing more employees creates a bigger backlash against whoever is blamed for the shutdown. There are some useful details at: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/union-faa-furloughs-airline-safety-inspectors-20427311 and at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/boeing-dreamliner-risks-certification-delay-on-shutdown.html.

It is only a matter of time before the shutdown causes a death. Then Congress will face being called murderers. It is clear already that if a vote were held the hiatus would be over. However the Tea Party extremists seem to have so much sway over the House Speaker, Republican John Boehner, that he won't allow a vote on a clean bill to bring the affair to an end. This has to be about as dumb as it gets. The Republican House members polled fewer votes than the Democrats in the 2012 elections and they only control the House because voting districts have been gerrymandered to create safe seats for Republicans,- and some Democrats as well. This not only results in Republican control of the House with fewer votes, but also means that those members in safe seats can be as stupid as they like without the risk of being voted out. (Not very different from some scenarios in the UK where its significance may be substantial after the 2015 election). This is how the Tea Party came to exist.

 The obstructors though are on a losing wicket. The number of moderate Republicans pushing for an end to the shutdown is growing and it is likely that they will be able to force a vote within a few days. Boehner can't hold out if he sees the Republican party disintegrating. Next up if the situation is unresolved, is the even bigger potential crisis,-the debt limit. If an increase isn't approved by around 17th October the US Government won't be able to pay its bills. The first move will probably be to start holding up things like Social Security cheques and the point would soon be reached where the government would default on bond holders. Then all hell would break loose .Interest rates would go through the roof , the defecit would balloon due to higher interest payments and everything the Republicans have been fighting for,- starting with lower defecits,-would be a pipe dream, a sure way of shooting themsleves in both feet ( Twiga comment,-As a separate and side issue, really shouldn't  they bring in some form of gun control even if just to avoid this possibility?)

There you have it. Watch this potentially self destructive space.

Meanwhile in another neck of the woods there must be joy in BP that a US court (the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans)  has ruled in favour of them not having to pay out on bogus or fraudulent claims for damage relating to the 2010  Gulf of Mexico oil spill. For some reason most people will have thought inexplicable,  the Administrator of the fund sent up to compensate those affected by the spill had previously though otherwise.

The USA at its best is a great country and does great things. Amongst other things it has given more people more opportunities than has any other nation on earth. At times though we have to shake the heads at the top of our long necks in mystification at its capability to do some rather extraordinary things which lead us again to hear the twin reports of a double barreled shotgun facing footwards.