Monday, 7 October 2013

The Conference Parties are over. Where are we now?


Yes, they are all over bar the Scottish Nationalists who trail behind, as they are likely to do in next years' bid for independence, or Uhuru as they might like to call it to give it a bit of a Commonwealth flavour (if they can stomach that). For any fans of party conferences who feel they have missed out this year, the SNP will meet in Perth for its annual grudgefest on 17-20 October. They will no doubt be delighted to see you,- provided that you are not one of  the evil English.

All the sessions went much as we predicted and bar the odd soundbite (and there were some odd ones) were highly forgetable. We may as well press the mental "delete" button and make space for other thoughts or memories. Almost anything else will do.

Passing over Nick and his gathering, Ed did his noteless stuff in Brighton, just down the track from Westminster, about as near as you can get without staying inside the M25. There was a spontaneous " Man-of-the-people-I'm not just a geek" session or two of hugging or snogging the wife and then a long learned by heart speech about us all being able to do better "than this". For those nodding off in the back rows those were probably the only words they heard before nodding (in agreement) off again until they heard the wake up words next time round (they had about 15 chances in case they missed any). With  clear body swerve to the left (McClusky's dog whistle was obviously working well) Ed came out about embracing socialism ("That's where we're going") and chose the wicked power companies as this year's bogeyman . They are to be felled by a blow of the price control axe once he is installed in Number 10 where all energy costs are met by the taxpayer. How he expects the six big energy suppliers to maintain their enthusiasm for the tens of billions of investment required to meet Britain's power needs and highly expensive greenification over the next 10 to 20 years is not clear. Maybe he will in due course explain to the nation in a candle lit broadcast with the hum of a portable generator prominent in the background. Actually he'd better do it on the radio as TV will probably have blacked out. Anyway, the message was "Follow me over here to the left" . There was barely a mention of defecit or the need to do anything about it. He was pretty much back to his master's voice, - that's Gordon Brown's- vowing to "invest" , by which he means of course to borrow and spend but for no particular purpose or gain.

All this doesn't stop Ed being the next Prime Minister. Cross yourselves, put your hands together, breathe in slowly and heavily, pour a stiff drink or do whatever you do in times of extreme stress now.  Thanks to the electoral maths, the Tories having scored an own goal in blocking the modicum of House of Lords reform demanded by the LibDems and the latter having churlishly responded by blocking parliamentray boundry changes worth 20 seats to the blues and the urban north being an almost Tory-free zone, Ed in number 10 is a definate possibility.  This version of Ed (Miliband unless Mr Balls elbows his way past him at the last moment) may well have to put up with an irritating alliance /coalition with Nick and his gang but that is something either of the main parties may have to accept. Nick himself doesn't much mind with which it is, just so long as he continues to draw his Number 2 salary and benefits. Labour would probably be harder on him though than the Tories have been although many LibDem MPs would feel themselves much more at home under the red bedspread than sort of under the current blue one.

Dave and his team chose to venture further from the M 25 comfort zone,- even beyond the Cotswolds which in a painful phone-in he revealed to be the home of bread making machines and artisan flour. That went down just great in the industrial streets of Bolton and the like.  As for in Scotland, let's just move on. So it was that the Tory festival pitched its camp in Manchester as a demonstration that it knows where it is and that it could manage a few days there without the place being burned down.  There were a few ill advised policy swerves or at least nods towards improving living standards via the socialist mechanism of market distorting government price controls but otherwise the message was essentially " Restoration of  the economy is long haul work in progress,- give us another 5 years in 2015". It echoed a slogan of 20 or more years ago "Life's better under the Conservatives,- Don't let Labour ruin it". It wasn't exactly a new theme.

Perhaps that's the real feeling coming out of all the party conferences. There was a "Back to the future" thread. Nothing really new, no exciting new thinking or visions, managerial rather than inspirational leadership styles, just choose which of the above bores or frightens you least. That makes for a pretty dull choice. The north will mainly say Ed, the south Dave and the largest number of the scattered remainder Nick. UKIP will do well in what are seen as the single issue May 2014 European Parliament elections but are likely to fade by 2015 although they could cost the Tories some crucial marginals. Scotland, ah Scotland. It was once the home of a good number of Conservative seats but that seems long ago. Even one seat is almost a miracle now. Tory mathematicians, or anyone who just understands sums, might think "If they could vote "Yes" to Uhuru and Westminster could be shot of their MPs by 2020 then the whole game changes in our favour". They should not allow this idea to delude them though. Both countries are enriched and strengthened by the union, even if the English do have to pay for/subsidise it. England the Brave.