This week...............

- With just 19 months to go our two great political parties are still shouting "Buy us and get x, y or z free or at least cheaper than you would with the other lot". This taps into the national psyche, carefully genetically modified ever since the welfare state was created in 1948, that everyone is really entitled to everything free and anyone trying to make a living, pay for research, be rewarded for effort or anything like that by making a profit must be a bloodsucker on the faces of the poor or hard working families (nobody has expressed a concern about hard working singles) or the disadvantaged or pensioners or whichever group tends to be the hard done by choice of the day. Generally it's pretty much all of us. Commuters, even those who choose to live far away from workplaces, are entitled to subsidised trains says David Cameron ,everybody is entitled to cheaper power although ours are some of the lowest rates in Europe says Ed Miliband. "Government will pay" (for someone has to,-unmentioned) say both and the LibDems. This is just the start. We can expect more goodies before the election. As result, sooner of later many of us will have to pay more taxes. We've probably pretty much run out of evil bankers and wealth creators to squeeze more out of and any left will likely soon follow the man from Virgin in moving their tax domicile to somewhere more welcoming. Why wouldn't they?

- While on economics, Ed with Dad's bit between his teeth, has been saying that yes indeed , a Labour government might do a lot more to keep the cost of living down by controlling prices .This will ensure that nobody can make more than a few quid profit regardless of how much they invest or risk. These are the joys of socialism and its fantasy world which has left the country broke after every Labour government. Prices and/or incomes policies have been tried ever since the French Revolution. Then execution had to be used to deal with the unconvinced. Effective but a bit short term. There was another Labour attempt after World War 2 when UK Plc was short of money and needed some to repay all it had borrowed from the USA to help keep the conflict away from American shores. Then there was Jim Callaghan's dab at it in 1972 accompanied by the Social Contract, a deal with the unions not to be as bloody minded as they might be. Nature took its course . All of these market and gravity defying efforts inevitably fell to earth with a thud. Margaret Thatcher killed off that last one, no doubt with a few choice words. Maybe she asked "Will they ever learn?". Unfortunately the answer is "Probably not".

-Other political flavours of the week include the LibDems swerving all over the road.Nothing new there. Nick was for a moment in "I agree with Dave " mode and said the Guardian shouldn't have published the leaked intelligence documents showing how and what GCHQ and others do, together with others containing information which could seriously threaten the lives of security operatives and their families. His colleague, the ever unpredictable Vince Cable, was , as so often, in "I don't agree with Nick"  mode. He said that the Guardian was right to publish.
In another neck of the woods two 14 year old schoolboys were told to shave off the new beards they had grown in line with their personal interpretation of religious requirements or to go home Nick was back to normal "I don't agree with Dave"setting." Anyone can do what they want at school" . Oh the joys of being in coalition even with colleagues nominally in the your own party.
Footnote: Why does Cable go off on these frolics of his own? Probably because he has always bitterly regretted his decision not to stand against Clegg in the party leadership election. He thought that his age ruled him out. He realised too late that his Commons performances when he was the standin during the interegnum went down very well (he was even intelligently funny about Gordon Brown) and he could have landed the job.  The electorate thought he was good. Age didn't matter .He still wants it.

-Press censorship is on the way,- or would be if all three party leaders and a pressure group, Hacked Off, gets its way. The latter has been hijacked by celeb actors and others who have been inconvenienced by such things as being reported in the back of a car at an awkward moment. Zips are such unreliable things. These are well off people who relish and thrive upon press attention when the news is good but bristle at the common peoples' right to know when it is ,shall we say, less good or convenient.  One can understand anger at some of the media's more intrusive and sometimes downright insulting and untuthful lies and speculation but these are already well covered by laws on libel and slander. Politicians in particular are though keen to be get their hands on the ability to control the press for potentially much more insidious purposes as well as to cover any personal mishaps such as the odd "moment of madness" or  inappropriate use of Westminster premesis or furniture.
Whether or not we like the press and how some elements of it do their job and the slants they put on their outpourings, the dangers of state or political sensorship are enormous. Already Mr Mugabe and others must be delighted to see that the British are "getting " true democracy at last. We have already seen some pretty dodgy elections of various kinds thanks to misused postal votes filled in by "community leaders", husbands and others, block votes and other devices. Further incursions on free speech or choice should not be welcome by anyone. The UK has been seen as a model of press and individual freedom of speech across the world.  It is something its politicians,- and even celebs,- should value.

- Africa's friends and those who contribute to or cheer on its progress wherever they see it will have said "Oh no!" once more this week. This time the miscreant was the news that the Organisation of African Unity at it conference in Addis Ababa has supported a demand that the continent's Presidents should be immune for prosecution while in office. No act of corruption, violence or even genocide would be bad enough to get them into the ICC's dock before the damage had been done. It would also be a good incentive to stay in power by whatever means might be required. President Kenyatta and others resorted to some good old fashioned anti-colonialist rhetoric , specifically accusing the ICC of being anti-African. It is a dismal picture of peddling backwards. Many Africans, tiring of the misguided notion that "the big man" can do whatever he likes, feel betrayed yet again by the leaders, some of whom they elected. Western international investors also say "Oh no!" and look elsewhere. Chinese investors,- mainly the Chinese government in one guise or another,- aren't too bothered and beckon towards their doorways. That's bad news for Africa's citizens whose new roads, railways, shopping malls will come with some unwelcome hooks, especially if western competitors back off. Ask the continent's elephants for a start.

-Talking of elephants, Tanzania's Minister responsible for wildlife is proposing a shoot to kill policy to deal with ivory poachers. At present their greatly increased rate of activity will wipe out the country's elephant herds by 2025. With that, Tanzania's tourism industry, earner of large amounts of foreign currency and provider of thousands of jobs, would also be largely wiped out, leaving the country even more dependent and tied to the Chinese RMb. Kenya employed the same policy very successfully in the 1990s. In response to the Minister there have been howls of protest from human rights groups. The elephants and those who depend on them to feed their families and secure a future will hope that he will put his ear plugs in.   

The Conference Parties are over. Where are we now?

Yes, they are all over bar the Scottish Nationalists who trail behind, as they are likely to do in next years' bid for independence, or Uhuru as they might like to call it to give it a bit of a Commonwealth flavour (if they can stomach that). For any fans of party conferences who feel they have missed out this year, the SNP will meet in Perth for its annual grudgefest on 17-20 October. They will no doubt be delighted to see you,- provided that you are not one of  the evil English.

All the sessions went much as we predicted and bar the odd soundbite (and there were some odd ones) were highly forgetable. We may as well press the mental "delete" button and make space for other thoughts or memories. Almost anything else will do.

Passing over Nick and his gathering, Ed did his noteless stuff in Brighton, just down the track from Westminster, about as near as you can get without staying inside the M25. There was a spontaneous " Man-of-the-people-I'm not just a geek" session or two of hugging or snogging the wife and then a long learned by heart speech about us all being able to do better "than this". For those nodding off in the back rows those were probably the only words they heard before nodding (in agreement) off again until they heard the wake up words next time round (they had about 15 chances in case they missed any). With  clear body swerve to the left (McClusky's dog whistle was obviously working well) Ed came out about embracing socialism ("That's where we're going") and chose the wicked power companies as this year's bogeyman . They are to be felled by a blow of the price control axe once he is installed in Number 10 where all energy costs are met by the taxpayer. How he expects the six big energy suppliers to maintain their enthusiasm for the tens of billions of investment required to meet Britain's power needs and highly expensive greenification over the next 10 to 20 years is not clear. Maybe he will in due course explain to the nation in a candle lit broadcast with the hum of a portable generator prominent in the background. Actually he'd better do it on the radio as TV will probably have blacked out. Anyway, the message was "Follow me over here to the left" . There was barely a mention of defecit or the need to do anything about it. He was pretty much back to his master's voice, - that's Gordon Brown's- vowing to "invest" , by which he means of course to borrow and spend but for no particular purpose or gain.

All this doesn't stop Ed being the next Prime Minister. Cross yourselves, put your hands together, breathe in slowly and heavily, pour a stiff drink or do whatever you do in times of extreme stress now.  Thanks to the electoral maths, the Tories having scored an own goal in blocking the modicum of House of Lords reform demanded by the LibDems and the latter having churlishly responded by blocking parliamentray boundry changes worth 20 seats to the blues and the urban north being an almost Tory-free zone, Ed in number 10 is a definate possibility.  This version of Ed (Miliband unless Mr Balls elbows his way past him at the last moment) may well have to put up with an irritating alliance /coalition with Nick and his gang but that is something either of the main parties may have to accept. Nick himself doesn't much mind with which it is, just so long as he continues to draw his Number 2 salary and benefits. Labour would probably be harder on him though than the Tories have been although many LibDem MPs would feel themselves much more at home under the red bedspread than sort of under the current blue one.

Dave and his team chose to venture further from the M 25 comfort zone,- even beyond the Cotswolds which in a painful phone-in he revealed to be the home of bread making machines and artisan flour. That went down just great in the industrial streets of Bolton and the like.  As for in Scotland, let's just move on. So it was that the Tory festival pitched its camp in Manchester as a demonstration that it knows where it is and that it could manage a few days there without the place being burned down.  There were a few ill advised policy swerves or at least nods towards improving living standards via the socialist mechanism of market distorting government price controls but otherwise the message was essentially " Restoration of  the economy is long haul work in progress,- give us another 5 years in 2015". It echoed a slogan of 20 or more years ago "Life's better under the Conservatives,- Don't let Labour ruin it". It wasn't exactly a new theme.

Perhaps that's the real feeling coming out of all the party conferences. There was a "Back to the future" thread. Nothing really new, no exciting new thinking or visions, managerial rather than inspirational leadership styles, just choose which of the above bores or frightens you least. That makes for a pretty dull choice. The north will mainly say Ed, the south Dave and the largest number of the scattered remainder Nick. UKIP will do well in what are seen as the single issue May 2014 European Parliament elections but are likely to fade by 2015 although they could cost the Tories some crucial marginals. Scotland, ah Scotland. It was once the home of a good number of Conservative seats but that seems long ago. Even one seat is almost a miracle now. Tory mathematicians, or anyone who just understands sums, might think "If they could vote "Yes" to Uhuru and Westminster could be shot of their MPs by 2020 then the whole game changes in our favour". They should not allow this idea to delude them though. Both countries are enriched and strengthened by the union, even if the English do have to pay for/subsidise it. England the Brave.

The Great American Shutdown- A Trans-Atlantic Twiga's view.

Are you mystified as to what is going on in the USA ? The people who lost the Presidential Election appear to be trying to hold to ransome the people who did. In so doing they negate the idea of democracy (for which they originally fought hard) by bringing the state aparatus as close to a standstill as they can. Next up will be the powers to increase national borrowing needed to fund ongoing expenditure. Apart from undermining the country's status as a long term trusted borrower, these measures will risk putting many citizens out of work, stop their pay and social security cheques and thereby threaten their livelihoods and homes. That doesn't seem to make any kind of sense for any political party.

While on this side of the Atlantic we shake our heads ,Twiga's North American fellow long necked quadripede, Andrew Lloyd-Williams, throws some light on the dismal scene of short term politics at its worst.

He comments...

Under the shutdown all government departments are required to furlough all employees unless the department has alternative sources of funding or the employees are "exempt",- ie performing emergency work involving the safety of human life or the protection of property or performing other types of exceptional work (See http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/guidance-for-shutdown-furloughs.pdf ).

Each department decides which employees are exempt so decisions will vary.Often the choice is a political one-furloughing more employees creates a bigger backlash against whoever is blamed for the shutdown. There are some useful details at: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/union-faa-furloughs-airline-safety-inspectors-20427311 and at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/boeing-dreamliner-risks-certification-delay-on-shutdown.html.

It is only a matter of time before the shutdown causes a death. Then Congress will face being called murderers. It is clear already that if a vote were held the hiatus would be over. However the Tea Party extremists seem to have so much sway over the House Speaker, Republican John Boehner, that he won't allow a vote on a clean bill to bring the affair to an end. This has to be about as dumb as it gets. The Republican House members polled fewer votes than the Democrats in the 2012 elections and they only control the House because voting districts have been gerrymandered to create safe seats for Republicans,- and some Democrats as well. This not only results in Republican control of the House with fewer votes, but also means that those members in safe seats can be as stupid as they like without the risk of being voted out. (Not very different from some scenarios in the UK where its significance may be substantial after the 2015 election). This is how the Tea Party came to exist.

 The obstructors though are on a losing wicket. The number of moderate Republicans pushing for an end to the shutdown is growing and it is likely that they will be able to force a vote within a few days. Boehner can't hold out if he sees the Republican party disintegrating. Next up if the situation is unresolved, is the even bigger potential crisis,-the debt limit. If an increase isn't approved by around 17th October the US Government won't be able to pay its bills. The first move will probably be to start holding up things like Social Security cheques and the point would soon be reached where the government would default on bond holders. Then all hell would break loose .Interest rates would go through the roof , the defecit would balloon due to higher interest payments and everything the Republicans have been fighting for,- starting with lower defecits,-would be a pipe dream, a sure way of shooting themsleves in both feet ( Twiga comment,-As a separate and side issue, really shouldn't  they bring in some form of gun control even if just to avoid this possibility?)

There you have it. Watch this potentially self destructive space.

Meanwhile in another neck of the woods there must be joy in BP that a US court (the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans)  has ruled in favour of them not having to pay out on bogus or fraudulent claims for damage relating to the 2010  Gulf of Mexico oil spill. For some reason most people will have thought inexplicable,  the Administrator of the fund sent up to compensate those affected by the spill had previously though otherwise.

The USA at its best is a great country and does great things. Amongst other things it has given more people more opportunities than has any other nation on earth. At times though we have to shake the heads at the top of our long necks in mystification at its capability to do some rather extraordinary things which lead us again to hear the twin reports of a double barreled shotgun facing footwards.