After a few weeks of seeing 24/7 news channels and printed media churn out item after item on the surge of disturbances and uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East and forecasting similar ends to all the regimes concerned , it is interesting to see if Libya will bring some of the pundits to a juddering halt.
It could just be that the Gaddafi regime will hang on in there,unhung, for quite some time. During that life extension it is likely that,as in Iraq where the West encouraged dissenters to show themselves in uprisings as the Kuwait relieving forces surged towards Baghdad before withdrawing and leaving them defenceless,the regime will study all those news broadcasts of rebels, round them up and deal with them mercilessly.Egypt looks as if it may sort itself out although time is short and it is totally new to what we see as normal parliamentary style democracy. Jordan, Oman and Bahrein all face very different sources of dissent, not all of them benign, and one can be sure that wherever Iran sees an opportunity to muddy the pool it will do so.
The uprisings and demonstrations have been a useful wakeup call to anyone who assumed that the current status quo could go on unaltered for ever and have underlined the importance of speeding up progress towards better and good governance if not full, one man/woman one vote democracy. In some states there may be a loosening of central controls and in others a loosening of purse strings but letting go will come hard in an area often kept together and away from destructive feuding by what we would see as authoritarian rule. The cancerous features of corruption and nepotism probably infuriate populations and particularly the aspirant middle classes more than the inability to occasionally tick a ballot paper.
To assume identical "democracy must win" outcomes across the region is unrealistic and in any case "good governance must win" would be a better goal. Here in the UK we have democracy but do we always have good governance? Is everyone equal before the law? Celebreties' personal lives are more shielded from the media than those of the rest of the population. The police will create a rolling roadblock on a motorway to protect a rock star or model from the press but will not attend a house burglary unless the occupant is rich or "influential". Objectors to a planning application which may have been discussed for many months and hours between councils and developers collectively have a total of five minutes to express their objections. Celebreties caught speeding are much more likely to be fined rather than banned than white van man or the sales rep because their ability to drive is seen as being of much higher value... and so it goes on in countless ways great and small. Let's not kid ourselves. Democracy is meant to be the best way of achieving good and fair governance but it doesn't guarantee it.
Much of the anger we are seeing across the world's undemocratic regimes,- or not in the case of North Korea,-is more about greedy self perpetuating regimes and their hangers on than democracy per se. Again democracy is seen as the best way of disposing of these and thereby achieving at least better governance and a fairer deal and equality of opportunity for all. Democracy is not in itelf the guarantee. Even in the UK where the monarchy is broadly accepted and even loved by some, it is the behaviour and remoteness of lesser royals and their assosciates which most threatens its continuation.
The North Africa, Middle East and Gulf states are all very different as is the real nature and performance of its many governments. It is time for the pundits and commentators standing against their preferred backdrops of riots (always look at what is going on in the background to see what is really happening and how life is in some of these scenes),roadblocks, destroyed buildings,chaotic hospitals or even the palm trees of Baghdad ,to back off. Instant wisdom is seldom that. Many of the correspondents and commentators have previously had little , if anything, to do with the Arab world and are a million miles from understanding it. The solutions will come from within, not from western intervention. So far William Hague has played a very measured and astute game for the UK by condemning atrocities but keeping well away from any rash and hasty actions. He knows we have no control over the outcomes which will differ from country to country and across the short, medium and long terms . He knows also that we will have to have relationships with whoever wins and leads in any time frame and be able to influence them as much as possible without appearing perfidious. Only a few weeks ago we were Gaddafi's friend, just as we had been Saddam Hussein's when he was fighting Iran. The Arabs are astute and will have a view on this and our reliabilty. They value old friends highly and are pretty good at sussing out who is for real and who is all facade. Sorry Tony if you haven't already grasped this. Just having a sun tan and motorcade won't do. It's what they say amongst themselves as you drive away that counts. The current situation is multi faceted, multi layered and extremely complex, the product of centuries. Setting a UK position other than championing good governance would not be helpful at this stage. Other than rescuing people in immediate danger, foreigners need to play it long and let the people of the region resolve the issues themselves.
