Last month Giovanni Bisignani, outgoing IATA Chief Executive sounded the UK a wakeup call about the decline into which its policies,- or lack of policies,- was causing to the future of Heathrow and indeed of London as a business centre. He went on soon afterwards to warn Hong Kong of the perils of ending up like London if a third runway is not soon built at Chep Lap Kok. In a message calculated to instill deepest fear for the future he warned that they could end up like London. That's enough to jerk any Hong Konger's ears and eyes wide open. To most of them London and the UK in general is a model of complacency, lack of energy, foresight, future planning and determination, this leading to an inexcusable waste of opportunities and under performance.
Today he is followed by 72 UK business leaders writing to the Times urging a rethink about the Government's abandonment of the proposed reintroduction of a third Heathrow runway and , to make it even worse,abandonment of plans for any additional runways at all in southern England."All options must be considered, short and long term, to address growing demand" runs the letter. Absolutely right .It is many months since the Conservative led government, influenced by a new found greeness and a string of constituencies beneath the flight paths, overturned Labour's support for the third runway at the airport. At the same time Labour's new leadership is showing signs of shaking its head,tutting, and withdrawing from what was previously its remarkably enlightened view on this and other major transport initiatives.
The reality is dire. In 1948 there was a visionary plan for the airport to have nine runways, six in a star of David pattern south of the A4 ,and a triangle of three between the A4 and what was then the planned South Wales Motorway, the M4. Indeed the alignment of the M4 was moved northwards to form its northern perimiter. The star of David briefly happened but was quickly eroded by the misplaced development of the terminal complex in the central area .Abandonment of the northern triangle came in 1953 and the threat to the two villages, Harmondsworth and Sipson, was removed. Wartime imagination about future infrastructure developments was already being ground to death by the dead hand of Whitehall. Aviation would never grow that much and anyway financially exhausted Britain couldn't afford it. A preview of now maybe. The vision has gone and what was the world's most prolific international airport is condemned to function with just two runways, severely restricted night operations and virtually no new slots left to be had,-ever.Its rivals meanwhile grow and plan to keep doing so. The outcome is inevitable even if gradual.Top of descent.
As if the lack of runways were not a big enough problem, the UK has deliberately embarked on suppressing demand by the imposition of the world's highest airport charges/taxes.Originally intended to fund airport services such as security ,these are now just another general tax and the revenue from them is not red ringed for recycling back into airports or other areas of transport. The recent budget delayed a further increase for a year but even without that the levels are high enough to deter foreign tourists particularly from finishing their European holidays,- and therefore their shopping,- in the UK even if they bother to include it at all. The requirement for a separate UK visa is already adding £65 a head to the cost of entering the country and the lowest medium haul departure level is £60 against £15 in Paris and zero in Amsterdam. Move up a class to Premium Economy and the level jumps to £120, rising to £170 for Australasia. Self strangulation? Aviation contributes 2% to UK pollution levels so even if that were halved in the name of environmentalism its effect would be negligable.It contributes an much more to Britain and London's economic activity and prosperity.
The UK has a remarkable tendancy to develop an industry and then kill it off by loading it with taxes, restrictions, beaurocracy and other impediments. Education for foreigners is another current example. The UK's private schools and universities have developed a huge foreign currency earning industry in importing people from across the world for education.The money they bring to pay for it is an export for UK Plc. Now, thanks to concerns about permanent immigration levels, mostly an entirely separate issue as most students return home at the end of their courses, visa restrictions are set to choke this off too. With that will go long term assosciations with the UK of many of the individuals concerned together with the future business and tourism that may bring. Joined up thinking? The lack of it is dismal. The position of Heathrow and of Britain itself as a major player in the airline and world and as an international business centre generating wealth, jobs and energy looks severely threatened. This is not by accident or misfortune but myopic short termist political design. We can be sure that with this horrifying prospect set out before it, Hong Kong will be calling in the dredgers, landfill teams and runway builders before UK could say "Policy Review"
Postscript: Talking of policy Reviews,the UK Government will be this week be announcing one. The Times advises that the Minister, Philip Hammond, who is doing well in championing HS2 and other transport projects will be publishing a "scoping document for a sustainable framework for UK aviation", balancing arguments for economic growth nd the impact on the environment. A review will take until 2013. Any by now remedial action would take until...........? Do we hear a rubbing of hands in Paris ,Amsterdam and the Gulf?
