EU hands UKIP a win at Rochester.

The UK's right wing UKIP,-UK independence Party, have been handed a massive gift in the form of the EU's demand that the country pays in an additional and unbudgeted £1.7 billion into its coffers for, along with a number of countries including laughably Italy and Greece, outperforming the EU norms.

To add fuel to the fire the biggest beneficiaries are France and Germany, the two core countries for whose peace and security (ie to keep them from each others' throats) and benefit the "European Project "was originally dreamed up.

 In comparaison the largest contributor, the UK, which has taken the pain of so called austerity (actually nothing of the kind and not enough) and  has the most liberalised and open trading policies in Europe along with the least regulated and most flexible labour policies, has taken the hit.

What a bonus for UKIP. The timing of the EU's demand is just right for Nigel Farage's party and their merry men down the pub.

It's just the right time for the EU heavies and armies of  Eurocrats too. It couldn't be better.

For Mr Junker and his fellow superstate federalists the prospect of a few right wing anti-EU MPs in the British parliament doesn't matter in the slightest.

The big prize which will bring one of those smiles to Brussels faces is that a Rochester win for UKIP will strengthen the party at a crucial moment. It will not just help them to win maybe eight seats in the May 2015 General Election but much more importantly it will help boost the UKIP votes in a large number of  the more conservative Conservative seats. Those are predominantly the ones with an older age profile and where dreams of golden ages that never were flourish and abound. The maths of all this could ensure that with the right of centre vote split even where it has a clear combined majority, enough seats will be lost to a lower polling Labour party to give the leaders of the left a clear overall majority.

For Brussels it's a dream result. It would mean the end of David Cameron, his referendum and the threat of the UK leaving their socialist dominated authoritarian and financially incontinent club. In his place would come a supine Ed Milliband- led left wing government willing to go along with the rest for the sake of not rocking any boats and being one of the commune. Labour would not even have to go into a coalition with the hand wringing illiberal LibDems .What could be better for the advance of the unreformed, undemocratic Franco/German bloc?

 In reality it's a nightmare for Britain.

From their own point of view, the EU machine could not have timed their demand for more cash better. 

Scotland,- just when you thought it was all settled.....it's business as usual in the SNP.

The confirmation of Nicola Sturgeon as the new leader of the Scottish National Party came as no surprise.

Nobody stood against her.

Nor should it be any surprise that her appointment brought an abrupt end to and southern,- ie English,- notion that the independence referendum had settled that little matter for "at least a generation".

As a democrat in the true EU, -for that is who Scotland seeks to bow to rather than the lot in England,-mould, Ms Sturgeon's theme is that having got the wrong answer on this occasion it's only a matter of time until the electorate is invited to vote again and this time get it right. Right that is for her party who only won in the heavily populated but geographically tiny Glasgow, western Clyde-Forth Valley and Dundee enclaves. 

This time she is up and running with the theme that if the wicked English don't  unconditionally deliver whatever she interprets as them, under the ad hoc default leadership of the Scottish giveaway maestro Gordon Brown, having promised in the chaotic runup to referendum day, there is a real prospect of a unilateral declaration of independence.

This wasn't a good start for Scotland or anyone else. She is saying that if a party (SNP) were to declare in its manifesto that independence is their objective, then win that election and then hold another referendum, that's it, the deed is done. Presumably she is talking about the Scottish parliament here. She fails to understand that this august body has no more power to declare independence from the United Kingdom than does the smallest Parish Council. It is simply not in the list of devolved powers. Apart from anything else the lady has some reading to do. If she's no time for that she could just ask a first year Scottish university law student for guidance on this constitutional point. 

Clearly Ms Sturgeon's offering to the people of Scotland is aggravation as before. She and her party don't love the English and never will but to obsessively persue the separatist goal is debilitating to both Scotland and the larger entity of which it is part. If  the SNP were to get on with the business of using the extensive powers the country already has to make it a glittering example of the socialist paradise it promises, the nationalists might have a better chance of persuading those who voted "No"that there might be something in "Yes" after all. Until then...................

Where are we this wet Monday afternoon?

Not in a very good place.

Ebola, ISIS, UKIP,-What's there not to fear? Hysteria surrounds the first and last of those. "We will check the travel history of arriving passengers" says some government spokesperson. Oh yes? Have they ever seen the Immigration queues at airports on a good day never mind a bad Sunday evening with hundreds of stags and hens lurching over the place and now shrieking "I've got ebola" to add to the fun. Even the organisers of the checks say they won't achieve anything except that "they will raise awareness of the symptoms". As many of these closely resemble influenza expect some fun. Sneeze or a train or bus and you will be out the window.

ISIS: This band of appalling sadisitic thugs who loathe all other people, especially women unless they come posthumously in the form of 72 virgins and who would disgrace the SS, continue to do well on the Turkish border at Kobane where the Turk army and massacre tourists are amassed to watch the final wipeout .They are close to Baghdad too.Thankyou Tone.

UKIP. OK, the big 2 parties have earned a kick in the rear for having no vision, no plan with which to enthuse voters and instead setting out their stalls in terms of who is going to chuck the most money into the clinically often excellent but otherwise bloated, over managed, inefficient, dysfunctional and too often non patient orientated NHS. They also continue to demonstrate a continuing lack of  real consciousness of anywhere north of Hampsted or Islington while their leaders are visibly incapable of normal human interaction outside their immediate circles. To register disapproval of all this it's fine to vote UKIP in the current round of by-elections.To ever believe that this negative, backward looking, anti many things and pro very little bunch could be the answer to anything is a huge mistake.

FORECAST FOR NEXT MAY.

Ebola forgotten. ISIS in Syria crushed by the Turks once they've done Turkey the favour of wiping out the Kurds who want their own state partly on a bit of Turkey. Labour/LibDem (if there are any left) or Tory/UKIP coalition unless UKIP have undermined more Tory than Labour majorities, so letting in Labour with an absolute majority, leaving Ed as our Dear Leader.

Talking of Dear Leaders, where is he of North Korea? In bed with bad ankles eating Swiss cheese or in the big Dictatorship,- otherwise known as Democratic Socialist Paradise,- In The Sky with his deceased uncle and others previously personally selected by him? That at least would be some belated justice.

LibDems freed from Glasgow,-or are they still there?

You have to feel sorry for attendees at the LibDem conference in Glasgow. Not only had they been incarcerated since Saturday,- a long time ago,- but on finally leaving they were faced with an awful dilemma.

Not the choice of which of their future coalition partners to be rudest to and about. Much worse than that.

Fresh from just having voted to hobble further growth of Britain's thriving aviation sector by rejecting any ideas of further runways, and being almost religiously opposed to emissions  of any kind (difficult on a lentil and beans diet) they had to get home without polluting the environment. Flying was obviously out. That left the trains. But some of those use planet choking diesel and the others electricity made from all sorts of things transported across the world to avoid it actually being Britain who chucks nasties out into the atmosphere.Coaches? Yes, OK for some but they do take a long time to reach the deep south. That left the most inefficient polluters of all,- cars.

We really don't know the answer. Nick and friends were seen heading north in a (standard class) train so maybe they returned to inside the M25 comfort zone the same way. The rest? If anyone sees forlorn figures standing by the exits of M74 and M6 service stations clutching bundles of conference goodies, do give them a cheery wave.Extra weight in the car means more pollution. Sorry folks.

Footnote: Among LibDems demands of a future coalition bedmate is that they should be allocated a couple of LibDem only ministries to do more or less what they want with. The ones they are said to want are Transport and Business. May all deities preserve us. 

Hong Kong Teeters. Different views of democracy.

Hong Kong Plc. is teetering closer to an edge than its pro-democracy and Occupy Central protesters may fully realise. Whatever the merits of their campaign which is now seriously affecting at least some businesses in the Central district , the outcome will not be decided locally. It will depend on conclusions reached and decisions made in Beijing. Apart from balancing domestic and future Taiwan implications they will also be influenced by events and experience in other parts of the world.

For now things are calmer than when the police used tear gas on some of the crowds on Sunday. That was a public relations disaster and to many of the activists literally a red rag to a bull. The visibly heavy handed tactic has been put aside at least for the moment and the police presence scaled back. The protesters, whose average age appears to be around 22, remain in place though and that means disruption, something most Hong Kongers do not like. Two public holidays, on Wednesday and Thursday could see even larger crowds on the streets but the hope is that after that the affair will then subside with both sides able to claim some honour, the protesters having made their point and the authorities having acted with restraint. If calm does not return by the end of next weekend the pressure on both the Hong Kong and Beijing governments to "do something" to restore normal life in the former colony may become iresistable.

The outcome isn't all about Hong Kong, China and Asia though.

 Beijing is faced with enormous pressures in holding together a vast and disparate country. Its first priority has always been to maintain a central grip on law and order above all else. It will therefore  be looking at other pro democracy and separatist movements, notably those in the Middle East and Ukraine. The analysts and decision makers won't be too impressed with what they see and their conclusions are likely to run along the lines: "Just as we thought,- street demos get out of hand, vehicles and buildings get burned out then wrecked, cities and villages converted into heaps of rubble, infrastructure destroyed for decades to come, business stops and runs and what was championed as democracy turns out to be unworkable anarchy and the only movement is fast backwards. Enough is enough. This must stop".

Regardless of the merits of the case and the high profile enthusiasm of the young, it is likely that a large majority of Hong Kong residents would also say "Enough is enough". They just want to get on with their lives, -and making money. They are not generally impressed with things that get in the way of those activities. Predictably but unfortunately this democratic reality is getting scant attention from even the more serious parts of the global media. The demos are so much more exciting. The downside of the unbalanced coverage is that it encourages the protesters to continue disrupting Hong Kong life at a time when they would do better to also say "Enough is enough"and quit this battlefield with honour and face intact, realising that continuing is dangerous.

The effects of the "Go for it" tone of the media have been seen all over the world many times before. Come the day when the complained of authority bites back and clips its or other peoples' citizens around the ear, the journos, cameramen and the rest head for the airport, leaving the unfortunate residents to take the hit. Never mind, another opportunity will come along somewhere else soon so why should they worry about what they have left behind? Governments have been guilty too but that's another (sorry) story.

Despite Beijing slowing down progress towards democracy, the Special Administrative Region ,- aka  city state,-  remains conspicuously ahead of all of its regional rivals in almost every respect. Above all people are free to go about their daily lives and businesses without fear, hindrance or adverse government intervention while all the elements of the well planned and organised infrastructure work 24/7/365. The protest movements have done a good job in sounding alarm bells about Beijing's political interference and that may have some effect. Now they need to pause and take stock of how good things really are for most of Hong Kong's people most of the time and what they risk losing for everyone if they push Beijing just a fraction too hard. There's another hard fact they should remember. They've never asked the electorate, especially those older than themselves, what they really want and what they are prepared to risk in this particular spat. The democratic answer would probably not be what they expect.

Tories rocked by defection and scandal ? Unlikely.

The British media has gone into an excited "shock, horror "frenzy over the defection of Rochester MP Mark Reckless to UKIP and the exposure of another  MP, Brooks Newmark, for having, well, exposed himself on social media to a lady posing as a friend he for some reason thought he would like to have.

As ever the BBC, that organisation who's license payer funded news function should be to deal in facts rather than speculative drama, is in there with the worst of them.

The reality is that the Conservative Party is, or should be, pretty relaxed if it were never to see either of these two gentleman or the previous UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell again. None of them was ever likely to be of great note in any serious party. Their self selection for departure, or in the case of Mr. Newmark, stepping down in the ranks, should be put down as nature taking a desirable course. Their change of status is of no importance or significance.

That's one reality. Hopefully this little flurry will now drop into the "Of little interest" box and focus can move onto real policy issues and the plans for dealing with them on offer in next May's election.

That could be difficult though.  Another reality is that it is the lack of exciting big picture visions that the electorate can enthusiastically sign up for (nothing of substance came out of the Labour or UKIP conferences) that makes a bored media run with anything it can get its hands on. If the Tories don't come up with good meaty stuff this week there's only the LibDem conference left to go. No comment needed.

Referendum,- What was that?

Just a week ago the United Kingdom woke up wondering if it still existed. A momentous occasion as the nation reached out for its radio or TV "On" buttons.

To the relief of those who saw the split as a potential disaster for all concerned, the Scottish pro-independence vote was confined to the western end of the Clyde-Forth Valley, surprisingly perhaps not even extending as far as Falkirk in the middle. The only other "Yes" outpost was the city of Dundee, encircled by the "No " voting rural areas of Angus and Fife and the rest of Scotland.The "Yes" maths were fatally wounded by only 75% of "Yes" voting Glasgow turning out against  84.4% of "No" voting  Edinburgh.  Most "Don't Knows", freed from the at times less than friendly attention of their neighbours and SNP activists revealed themselves as "No". Game over.  Alex Salmond's proposition was decisively defeated by 55/45. % .All the scares and very likely the generous special offers made since Mr. Murdoch's Sunday Times' one off poll suggesting a possible "Yes" majority proved to be unnecessary.

Most of Britain rolled over and quickly moved on to enjoy the weekend as if the danger of a split were over for all time. Mr Salmond lost no time in reminding everyone that "No, it isn't" and then , surprisingly to many just when a top flight SNP negotiator is needed to extract the maximum from David Cameron (not difficult), falling on his sword. Salmond accused the devious ( usually true) people of Westminster of trickery before also taking a day or two off. The immediate drama is over but there's a lot to play for and for Scotland to gain over the next few months before the final deal is signed. That might be a bit painful for the rest of Britain as, true to form, Gordon Brown signed the three terrified "leaders " up to giving away the shop in their moments of blind panic.

Why the panic?

For Cameron it was the possibility of going down in history as the man who agreed to gamble the future of the United Kingdom in a Referendum dictated by Salmond. The over lengthy timescale, the phrasing of the questions so that "Yes" was for independence, the agreement that 16 year olds could vote all favoured Salmond far more than Cameron seemed to even begin to understand. He won but it could easily have gone the other way.

For Miliband Junior and New Old Labour the loss of 40+ Scottish MPs could have scuppered dreams of imposing socialism on England in the forseable future.

For Clegg, well, who knows but he joined in anyway.

Putting all that aside, the Scottish deal and now the bombing of the bad guys in Iraq, will at least give MPs something to do in what was looking a decidedly thin legislative period between now and May's General Election.

No sooner had the visiting leaders and their entourages fled the Highlands and Lowlands and returned to their laagers inside the London Congestion Zone , never mind the North and South Circular or, at its extremity, the M25 than the Labour  contingent had to pack their bags again and go to Manchester. Presumably most went by train devoid again of First Class branding. It is doubtful if many went by coach via a refreshment break on the M1. Too many common people there and no photo ops though it might have given Ed the ideas for a few more "I spoke to real people and they said to me..." quotes for his dreadful conference speech.

Ah, that gathering and that speech. Both were true Labour and true Ed even if the leader substituted the word "Friends" for the much loved "Comrades". The false bonhommie for the cameras, the minders, security zones, Trade Union sponsors and masters. The carefully planted "real people" for the media. The moving of less photogenic disabled people to make way for for others more in keeping with the desired image. And then, on Tuesday, THAT speech. 2.30pm is the dreaded slot for any speaker especially after a party or three the night before. To his credit, Ed spoke without notes other than a few headline prompts on the lecturn.  It would have been helpful if these had included words like"The Economy" or "Immigration". Maybe they did, in which case he should have gone to SpecsSavers.

 We were promised Labour's great 6 point plan to change and save the nation . This was offered in exchange for giving the party which only four years ago brought the country to the edge of ruin not just five, but ten please, years to weave their magic. Borrowing from an American Presidential theme and more recently the Scottish "No" ed intoned more than fifty times that "Together" we can do all sorts of things and the hated Tories would just do whatever in a dark corner on their own while ignoring the desparate plight of the rest of society.

What else did we get?

Sixty five minutes of the tedious , downbeat ,"It's all awful", part preaching, part hectoring, totally moralising style that is Ed's trademark. Lots of dreary tedium. Politically incorrect cameras picked up pictures of afternoon nap taking,fidgeting or pure boredom. Only Harriet Harman, famous for her nodding at everything Ed says , managed to look adoringly and with glistening eyes at her leader throughout,- and nod of course.

Yes, Ed did set out his stall only too well . It's not a pretty sight. The most significant feature was the Freudian omission of any agenda to fix the economy or sort out immigration. He really doesn't want to talk about these things. What's wrong with tax, borrow and spend after all. Far better than new thinking, reform, re-energising.

 Ed's stool has just two main legs,- First the NHS and the mythical threat to it of the Tories and use of private facilities , now about 6% of total activity, originally sensibly introduced by Labour during his time as a Brownie. Second the Class War, an essential creation which must be kept alive if socialism is to have any appeal to anyone. There is no third leg other than a mish mash of odds and ends. There is certainly no vision of a better, greater Britain achieved by really tackling the issues.Nothing to excite, inspire or really get people going. Just more of the dreary old same.

In the real world the Tories have pumped much the same amount as he proposes ,-£2.6 billion,- into the NHS this year. It is not clear what the additional money has achieved in terms of output or performance. Ed intends his bung to pay for personal health plans for all and 36,000 additional front line staff by 2020. No mention where all these people are to come from in just 5 years or of the root and branch review and redesign of almost everything the huge organisation does which almost everybody knows has to happen. No mention of dreadful inefficiencies, waste, the legacy of Labour's disastrous high cost/lower productivity deal with GPs and Consultants. The Labour answer to it all is unchanged,- lots  more people as demanded by the unions and lots more money.

The class war will always attract and inspire Hampstead socialists in the Miliband mould. They grew up with it, know that they have to perpetuate it, and they love it. It's what the singing of the Red Flag at the end of "Conference" every year is all about and it gives them nice warm feelings. Dangerously it reminds non believers that Labour not only dislikes some other sections of the electorate but more actively loathes them and will do all they can to land blows upon them. Hence Ed's claims to be gung ho for entrepreneurs rings hollow. Shrewd minds  know that once they are successful despite all the personal risks of bancruptcy, unending hard work and the obstacles in their way and have made a bit of money, bought a nice house , paid private medical insurance, put their children into private schools  and gained a few other deserved goodies they will morph from being heroes to despised class enemies. So much for encouraging and supporting an aspirational society. Labour doesn't and in its current form never will.

There were a few passing titbits during the 65 minutes. One was the complete removal of carbon emissions from electricity production by 2030. No how or by whom of course. That's down to the pariah power companies whose incentives to invest diminish by the minute. Another was the appointment of a global lesbian, gay and trans gender ambassador. Ed managed to remember those things but not fixing the economy or immigration. Freud was on form. Ed was not.

All this in just a week. Scotland has saved itself,- and the United Kingdom,- for now at least. Labour has saved us from getting excited about its offerings. Dave has got us back into the Middle East just as we thought we were getting out. Nigel Farage and UKIP are having their conference in Doncaster, while, cleverly Dave, the media are busy with Iraq. Next up is the Conservative Conference in Birmingham which is almost becoming a suburb of London. North(ish) but safe. About as far as a London Tory can safely go,- or wants to go. More on the proceedings there later.