Remainers,- Tone rides to the rescue,- Not.

The news that Tone, the one time Prime Minister who amongst other things took his country into a disastrous and unnecessary war is , more glistening eyed than ever, back on the warpath. This time he wants to save Britain from Brexit . That can't be good news to the Remainers.

Pictures of anyone, let alone a man who may see himself ,- surely alone amongst humanity,- as potentially returning to Number 10 as leader of a disparate and desperate band of metro Labour MPs, rebellious Remainer Tories,Scottish Nationalists and a smattering of Lib Dems, warmly embracing the man who did so much for the Brexit campaign, Jean Claude Juncker is enough to ensure that Leave wins any second referendum. That old smirking grin " Look who I'm with " ( Dave had a similar one ) is there again . Many potential voters reach for the sick bag.

The be-hugged Juncker, was one time Prime Minister of Luxemburg, population 543,200. That makes the position similar in importance to being leader of Sheffield , population 530,000,  City Council. Both before and after the a Referendum vote this man has done nothing to re- think creatively how Britain might be persuaded to stay. Instead he continues to issue lofty ( if that is possible from low level) statements about how difficult it's all going to be for the recalcitrant nation and any others who might be so bold as to say enough is enough and they either want the eventual unification nightmare abandoned or to get out of ever more stifling union,- aka centralised control.

Good night Tone. Thank you for calling, but no, you've done enough leadership for one lifetime. Will someone please tell him before everyone does?  

It's nearly February.

With Christmas now four weeks behind us a moment to catch breath perhaps. or maybe not.

We won't embark on yet another Trump commentary other than to note that he was elected by the US' system of democracy (all those electoral colleges) and it is therefore entirely out of place,and irrelevant, for the disappointed in both the US and more especially abroad, to demonstrate and shreik foul. People voting for someone or something you don't like doesn't invalidate their eligibility to do so, whatever the so called liberal (but actually highly illiberal and intolerant) left may think. For opponents it is much more productive to accept the setback,figure out what they failed to do to avoid it and set about making sure by thought word and deeds they get their prospectus right next time. The same goes for Brexit and the Bremoaners. Like it or not,rightly or wrongly, the electorate has spoken.there is nothing to be gained by not energetically getting on with the new task. The same goes for the moribund European Commission. Where's the new plan , the new proposition to keep the UK in? Currently the grey men (there don't seem to be many women there) of Brussels show no sign of coming up with one and their mindset makes it unlikely that they will. To the Brexiteers another good reason for leaving.

The media is in a febrile state, its needs for 24/7 Breaking New headlines not being fed at home by a canny Theresa may who they continually slag off for not revealing her innermost or even outermost thoughts or by anything good they can say about "the Donald". That leaves just the NHS, now going,like most other northern European health services going through its annual seasonal crisis. Shouts for more money cone from every side but hardly a word on what it's for. The NHS needs root and branch flow analysis to establish what's getting in its way, clogging up processes, causing delays and stopping the patient getting swift ad successful treatment. Clinically it is usually good to excellent, It's the processes and some mindsets that get in the way, - and ultimately cause too many unnecessary premature deaths.

We will also skip over Davos, the once useful exclusive gathering but now, post populism, seriously dated spectacle of too much Dad dancing and money making grandstanding by failed politicians and others, charging absurd amounts to share their "wisdom" with other no-hopers. Time the resort went back to concentrating on real skiers.

Back to the headline. With 22 days of January gone and winterwise just 28 days of February to contend with, the very first tentative green shoots of Spring can't come soon enough. And hopefully with them some more positive thinking about making changed circumstances work. Enough of "looking into" " Further studies" and the rest ,some real delivery would be good now. We must do better than spending 40 years figuring out how to get a national trunk road past Stonehenge.

Happy New Year!

Well, we've made it. 2016 has finally slid into history and  we are into 2017. A relief or a "Oh God are we really?" moment?

A year ago 2016 was looking like fairly calm water. Abroad Hillary Clinton was headed for the White House if only on a "It can never be Trump" ticket. The EU was looking increasingly cosily moribund, ignoring anything about reform while visibly filling its face with goodies paid for by member states. Here our Dave had put the country on a road to a EU Referendum which it was presumed would go for comfortable stay in rather than risk the unknown upheaval of leaving. So warm slippers -comfortable about winning was our man that he didn't bother to set a 60/40 bar as being required for constitutional change, something he could reasonably have done.

So what happened? We, but more especially Dave and Hillary, should have read the tealeaves of the Boaty McBoatface fiasco. Proposals for serious names for a new research vessel were rejected by a truculent online electorate in favour of Boaty McBoatface. One can excuse Hillary for not being aware of anything happening on this side of the Atlantic but poor old Dave, to whom the world beyond the narrow triangle of West London-Oxford- Cotswolds often seemed to be a bit of a mystery, might at least have been warned by one of his minions that the natives seemed to a bit restless out there. Until around midnight of 23/24 June (The referendum closed at 10pm on 23rd)  Dave had seen a fairly smooth ride through till whenever before the 2020 General Election he chose to give way, probably to George Osborne. Then with the first results from the North East and the South the maths started to wobble. More than expected northerners were voting for "Leave" and fewer than expected counterbalancing southerners (where the Conservatives had hardly bothered to campaign) were voting "Remain". Dave, who had promised to stay on as PM and manage whatever the outcome , seemingly suddenly got a touch of the "Why should I do all the hard work?" syndrome and shortly after 8am quit. There's a stayer for you. He did say though that he would remain as MP for Witney and serve its people, something he soon decided wasn't worth the candle either so he bailed out of that too. Now he can fly BA instead of EasyJet. So much for those who expect a sense of public duty in their politicians. Disappointing. To many the man left the stage with no legacy and they can hardly remember he was even there.

No surprise then that over in the USA whose whole tortuous , energy sapping and expensive  electoral process is based on the days of travel on horseback or the early railroads, the electorate was also getting restive and unenthusiastic about entrenched elites. Clinton's campaign was lacklustre, Her appearances  seemed tired ,were formulaeic, down to the guaranteed every time pointing into the crowd at imaginary recognised old friends ("See.I belong around here.I know people") and uninspiring. As in the UK it also didn't recognise the disenchantment and powerlessness felt in the rust bucket zones like Michigan where Trump wound up his campaign so she didn't give them the cuddles she should have. Where were her advisors? Like Dave's presumably in the same rarified cuckoolands as  their leader so just not picking up the vibes that Trump's more earthy campaign worker ants did. To the disenchanted, the disenfranchised or just the simply bored, the arrival of a glitzy cowboy on horseback, firing off in all directions, promised at least some excitement and a kick in the establishmentt's groin so to hell with the risk. They voted for The Donald on November 8th. Again the US system being tied to the horse and the railway, unlike the UK,  America does not go for a sudden death handover and a walk of shame the day after the election.While allowing time for the new man or woman and spouse to clip clop or slowly click clack across the continent, the outgoing pair have time to arrange their own furniture vans and time and method of departure while the incomer can sort out how many Rockettes, pole dancers or whatever will perform at the pastiche handover ceremonies on January 20th. (Note: Only the British know how to do proper ,tasteful ,handover ceremonies.We have form and unequalled experience in the art. We probably did a good one for American independence).

By February of this new year, 2017, when most Brits should be back from the Christmas break, the world will be dominated by Trump, Putin and Kim Jong-Un. The Chinese will continue their economic colonisation wherever they can and ruffle Asian feathers by building things on rocks in the China Sea. The EU will continue snoozing its way to the next claret round under the administrative prickly non leadership of Jean-Claude Juncker .Here at home Britain's media will be tearing its hair out because of Mrs May's refusal to be on the box every five minutes feeling everybody's pain about anything at all and her refusal to reveal her hand in the potentially tortuous Brexit negotiations. How could she be so insensitive to public opinion? If she felt she had to increase her majority via a snap General Election and the maths played the same sort of tricks as they did in 2016, what would we get next? Comrade Jeremy? If that doesn't make you shudder ,consider this. Four years,- or even a year,- ago,- nobody would have given Trump or Brexit a chance. If the Tories, who have the extremely difficult task of achieving a successful Brexit, something they never wanted in the first place, come to grief and the economy is all over the place with inflation, more devaluation, higher interest rates, higher taxes negative equity in house prices,- any of that or more,- just who would/will people vote for?  You saw that here first.

Happy New Year!

They're at it again. EU leaders Trump and Brexit hysterics.

The normal international response to anybody winning the leadership of their home nation in a democratic election is for foreign leaders, to signal their congratulations, good wishes and hopes for mutually beneficial good relations.

Maybe it's because yesterday was Friday and for those Europeans who hadn't headed home early, the lunches were long and er, well, long, That towering diplomat, Jean Claude Juncker, former Finance and then Prime Minister of Luxembourg (pop  574,000 that's between Belfast , Britain;s 12th largest city at 600,000 and  13th placed Leicester at 534,000) couldn't resist strutting his stuff with the dire warning that the EU would have to teach Mr Trump what Europe is and how it works" bearing in mind that "We will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know". That's fighting stuff and not likely to play well among those likely to be running the world's most powerful nation in a couple of months time. A cheery, "Do come over and see us anytime" note might have been a better line to take. It might have avoided Mr Juncker and friends being taught some rather uncomfortable home truths about how they are seen by the new order on the other side of the Atlantic.

While Juncker was dishing this out about the Americans the fickle British were being warned by Germany's Mr Schafer that rather than moving to the front of queue for a free trade deal with the US the arrival of the new regime somehow made the prospect of such a deal even further away. This sounds more like a veiled "Don't push yourselves too much you Brits. We know where you live " threat than anything more rational.

Between them the two gentleman did even more yesterday to convince the Brexiters that they've got it right and the UK, in the nick of time, is escaping a union in which it was never really welcome and never really wished it well.There was a tremendous opportunity for the EU, in the wake of the British referendum to say "Let's look at all this again" and come up with a looser and more flexible formula which would keep "The Project" on the rails and Britain, and potentially others, more loosely in it.

Needless to say, in view of the personalities of the drivers, that hasn't happened. They may be men (yes, almost all men) of Europe but they are not people of the wider world  Within the narrow confines of their view and experience a rather unpleasant and insular "They must be punished" attitude prevails . That's meant to deter any others who might have the effrontery to wish to escape the bureaucratic of the Commission in particular. Those British who voted "Leave" will be saying "Phew". A second referendum could produce an even bigger majority in favour of heading for the door. That would for many , especially in the London political bubble, be yet another in the current run of electoral surprises.

Talking of those don't forget one Corbyn may well be rubbing his hands together on this dreary winter's afternoon and muttering " 2020, Maybe, just maybe....".

The big night... We were right.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

The year of Boaty McBoatface rolled on and the similarities with the UK Brexit Referendum night were remarkable. Viewing started off comfortably enough with Hillary forecast to win. It was going to be an evening of calm and quiet relief. The first few results were predictable and safe.

Then in Britain came the midnight Sunderland bombshell. In the USA it was the 0315 NBC prediction that Trump would get Ohio. Moods changed . People sat up. Some stopped celebrating. Others started. The plates were moving in the unexpected direction.  Levers started to be thrown, brakes screeched. Time Magazine had to pull its already printed Clinton in the White House supplement. From then on it was like sliding down an icy bank,- all one way . As in the UK turnout and is demographics had been king (too low from Clinton supporters, higher than expected from Trump's) and the numbers just couldn't add up for the Democrats. The same thing had happened for the SNP in the Scottish independence referendum a year earlier when too many Glasgweigans stayed at home while  much higher percentage of Edinburgh  "Better Togethers"  hit the streets. Like the British EU Remainers they had taken too many loyalties for granted,  especially in the rustbucket and west cities and in some country areas. In Florida not enough blacks or hispanics upon who there were great hopes turned out to counterbalance the large white retiree population. Trump's camp had plotted the holes in the Democrats support well. Why else hold the last rally in Michigan?

So that's all over and of course the inquests are in full swing. Plenty of pages of recycled wisdom yet to come before the Sunday papers are put to rest. After that other news might have a chance again. Is Syria still there/

Now comes the global stampede to conclude  "What does it mean for us? How can we get the best tout of it?" Predictably European elites in particular are reaching for the smelling salts, or in some well known EU cases surely the best claret bottles. An emergency meeting of Foreign Ministers has been called for this weekend, when conveniently Boris Johnson has a number or Remembrance Day engagements, remembering of course all those who fell.... defending fellow Europeans. Never mind, we know they are grateful really. Mr Juncker, who maybe has visions of a nice braid covered military uniform covered in medals for valour in the face of noisy assaults by Mr Farage and Mr Hollande, leader of one of Europe's finest fighting nations, are renewing calls for a European Army under the overall plot to hasten "ever closer union", one of those things which made the Brits head for the door. There has been no stocktaking after the Brexit vote . No "What can we do to keep them in?" there's no sign yet of what Europe might to to impress Mr Trump of its worth and good intentions as an ally..

A idea of a European army separate from NATO (and the US part of that organisation) is almost laughable. It may be giving Moscow, Beijing and some others are few smiles and laughs but nobody's hair will be standing on end.

Europe's challenge  is to learn to live with and get closer to whatever new America emerges once Mr Trump is in the White House. At the moment it seems the Euro-elite with their tunnel vision see the new US regime as a threat to be distanced from rather than embraced. Underlying this is the illusion that the EU might somehow emerge as a superpower. Without the USA in NATO and without the UK, Europe has the weapons and people to hold out against a serious Russian nuclear led or backed attack for probably less than a week. Once its limited quantities of front line aircraft, ships and land armies were taken out in the first or second waves of attack it would be game over. The state of its main cities would then would make Aleppo look like a glittering utopia. That's the reality.

Today's big match,- The US Election.

There will be sighs of relief when this carryon, started over a year ago, designed to cater for the days before the telegraph or trans continental train, rumbles to its conclusion.

Like in a bad western the two candidates are today clawing their way across the dusty open ground to see who can reach the one gun first. By tomorrow morning we will know. But then the drama is still not quite over. Unlike in UK elections where it's furniture vans within the hour, the same day walk or drive of shame, in the US there are another couple of months before the bands play, the winner gets the key to the nice house and the loser rides out of the picture.- at least for the moment.

The result? This is the year of electoral upsets. It began in the UK with Boaty McBoatface. Never intended to be a winner, Boaty was. The voters just said "We are fed up with establishment names. We'll vote for a nonsense". Dave should have noted it ,shivered and done something about it but it's unlikely he even read the tea leaves, and linked the vote what was going to happen next in the great Brexit bakeoff.  Perhaps he looked in Earl Grey not the more mystifying builders pot. Even on Referendum night itself "Remain" was expected  to win. Then in just four hours from midnight to 4am  a narrow 52/40 victory for "Leave" revealed itself . By breakfast time Dave was outside on the street abdicating.  Nobody has yet tried to calculate how much of the vote was a protest "We don't like the establishment and it's not working for us" vote largely from poorer whites but some of it was and that rather than the issue may have won the day.

Tonight the assumptions are that Hillary Clinton, despite what looked like an intended FBI killer intervention and too late withdrawal ,will just make it thanks partly to winning the early votes, especially the southern Hispanics. But then, but then... the Trump campaign, like Brexit, has been resonating with the poorer white voters who feel left behind by the whole US political machine and establishment. If that means these people come out today and others stay at home, Wednesday could see a triumphant Trump, wall- building spade in one hand and the nuclear trigger in the other.

It's not over until it's over.