Well, we've made it. 2016 has finally slid into history and we are into 2017. A relief or a "Oh God are we really?" moment?
A year ago 2016 was looking like fairly calm water. Abroad Hillary Clinton was headed for the White House if only on a "It can never be Trump" ticket. The EU was looking increasingly cosily moribund, ignoring anything about reform while visibly filling its face with goodies paid for by member states. Here our Dave had put the country on a road to a EU Referendum which it was presumed would go for comfortable stay in rather than risk the unknown upheaval of leaving. So warm slippers -comfortable about winning was our man that he didn't bother to set a 60/40 bar as being required for constitutional change, something he could reasonably have done.
So what happened? We, but more especially Dave and Hillary, should have read the tealeaves of the Boaty McBoatface fiasco. Proposals for serious names for a new research vessel were rejected by a truculent online electorate in favour of Boaty McBoatface. One can excuse Hillary for not being aware of anything happening on this side of the Atlantic but poor old Dave, to whom the world beyond the narrow triangle of West London-Oxford- Cotswolds often seemed to be a bit of a mystery, might at least have been warned by one of his minions that the natives seemed to a bit restless out there. Until around midnight of 23/24 June (The referendum closed at 10pm on 23rd) Dave had seen a fairly smooth ride through till whenever before the 2020 General Election he chose to give way, probably to George Osborne. Then with the first results from the North East and the South the maths started to wobble. More than expected northerners were voting for "Leave" and fewer than expected counterbalancing southerners (where the Conservatives had hardly bothered to campaign) were voting "Remain". Dave, who had promised to stay on as PM and manage whatever the outcome , seemingly suddenly got a touch of the "Why should I do all the hard work?" syndrome and shortly after 8am quit. There's a stayer for you. He did say though that he would remain as MP for Witney and serve its people, something he soon decided wasn't worth the candle either so he bailed out of that too. Now he can fly BA instead of EasyJet. So much for those who expect a sense of public duty in their politicians. Disappointing. To many the man left the stage with no legacy and they can hardly remember he was even there.
No surprise then that over in the USA whose whole tortuous , energy sapping and expensive electoral process is based on the days of travel on horseback or the early railroads, the electorate was also getting restive and unenthusiastic about entrenched elites. Clinton's campaign was lacklustre, Her appearances seemed tired ,were formulaeic, down to the guaranteed every time pointing into the crowd at imaginary recognised old friends ("See.I belong around here.I know people") and uninspiring. As in the UK it also didn't recognise the disenchantment and powerlessness felt in the rust bucket zones like Michigan where Trump wound up his campaign so she didn't give them the cuddles she should have. Where were her advisors? Like Dave's presumably in the same rarified cuckoolands as their leader so just not picking up the vibes that Trump's more earthy campaign worker ants did. To the disenchanted, the disenfranchised or just the simply bored, the arrival of a glitzy cowboy on horseback, firing off in all directions, promised at least some excitement and a kick in the establishmentt's groin so to hell with the risk. They voted for The Donald on November 8th. Again the US system being tied to the horse and the railway, unlike the UK, America does not go for a sudden death handover and a walk of shame the day after the election.While allowing time for the new man or woman and spouse to clip clop or slowly click clack across the continent, the outgoing pair have time to arrange their own furniture vans and time and method of departure while the incomer can sort out how many Rockettes, pole dancers or whatever will perform at the pastiche handover ceremonies on January 20th. (Note: Only the British know how to do proper ,tasteful ,handover ceremonies.We have form and unequalled experience in the art. We probably did a good one for American independence).
By February of this new year, 2017, when most Brits should be back from the Christmas break, the world will be dominated by Trump, Putin and Kim Jong-Un. The Chinese will continue their economic colonisation wherever they can and ruffle Asian feathers by building things on rocks in the China Sea. The EU will continue snoozing its way to the next claret round under the administrative prickly non leadership of Jean-Claude Juncker .Here at home Britain's media will be tearing its hair out because of Mrs May's refusal to be on the box every five minutes feeling everybody's pain about anything at all and her refusal to reveal her hand in the potentially tortuous Brexit negotiations. How could she be so insensitive to public opinion? If she felt she had to increase her majority via a snap General Election and the maths played the same sort of tricks as they did in 2016, what would we get next? Comrade Jeremy? If that doesn't make you shudder ,consider this. Four years,- or even a year,- ago,- nobody would have given Trump or Brexit a chance. If the Tories, who have the extremely difficult task of achieving a successful Brexit, something they never wanted in the first place, come to grief and the economy is all over the place with inflation, more devaluation, higher interest rates, higher taxes negative equity in house prices,- any of that or more,- just who would/will people vote for? You saw that here first.
Happy New Year!
A year ago 2016 was looking like fairly calm water. Abroad Hillary Clinton was headed for the White House if only on a "It can never be Trump" ticket. The EU was looking increasingly cosily moribund, ignoring anything about reform while visibly filling its face with goodies paid for by member states. Here our Dave had put the country on a road to a EU Referendum which it was presumed would go for comfortable stay in rather than risk the unknown upheaval of leaving. So warm slippers -comfortable about winning was our man that he didn't bother to set a 60/40 bar as being required for constitutional change, something he could reasonably have done.
So what happened? We, but more especially Dave and Hillary, should have read the tealeaves of the Boaty McBoatface fiasco. Proposals for serious names for a new research vessel were rejected by a truculent online electorate in favour of Boaty McBoatface. One can excuse Hillary for not being aware of anything happening on this side of the Atlantic but poor old Dave, to whom the world beyond the narrow triangle of West London-Oxford- Cotswolds often seemed to be a bit of a mystery, might at least have been warned by one of his minions that the natives seemed to a bit restless out there. Until around midnight of 23/24 June (The referendum closed at 10pm on 23rd) Dave had seen a fairly smooth ride through till whenever before the 2020 General Election he chose to give way, probably to George Osborne. Then with the first results from the North East and the South the maths started to wobble. More than expected northerners were voting for "Leave" and fewer than expected counterbalancing southerners (where the Conservatives had hardly bothered to campaign) were voting "Remain". Dave, who had promised to stay on as PM and manage whatever the outcome , seemingly suddenly got a touch of the "Why should I do all the hard work?" syndrome and shortly after 8am quit. There's a stayer for you. He did say though that he would remain as MP for Witney and serve its people, something he soon decided wasn't worth the candle either so he bailed out of that too. Now he can fly BA instead of EasyJet. So much for those who expect a sense of public duty in their politicians. Disappointing. To many the man left the stage with no legacy and they can hardly remember he was even there.
No surprise then that over in the USA whose whole tortuous , energy sapping and expensive electoral process is based on the days of travel on horseback or the early railroads, the electorate was also getting restive and unenthusiastic about entrenched elites. Clinton's campaign was lacklustre, Her appearances seemed tired ,were formulaeic, down to the guaranteed every time pointing into the crowd at imaginary recognised old friends ("See.I belong around here.I know people") and uninspiring. As in the UK it also didn't recognise the disenchantment and powerlessness felt in the rust bucket zones like Michigan where Trump wound up his campaign so she didn't give them the cuddles she should have. Where were her advisors? Like Dave's presumably in the same rarified cuckoolands as their leader so just not picking up the vibes that Trump's more earthy campaign worker ants did. To the disenchanted, the disenfranchised or just the simply bored, the arrival of a glitzy cowboy on horseback, firing off in all directions, promised at least some excitement and a kick in the establishmentt's groin so to hell with the risk. They voted for The Donald on November 8th. Again the US system being tied to the horse and the railway, unlike the UK, America does not go for a sudden death handover and a walk of shame the day after the election.While allowing time for the new man or woman and spouse to clip clop or slowly click clack across the continent, the outgoing pair have time to arrange their own furniture vans and time and method of departure while the incomer can sort out how many Rockettes, pole dancers or whatever will perform at the pastiche handover ceremonies on January 20th. (Note: Only the British know how to do proper ,tasteful ,handover ceremonies.We have form and unequalled experience in the art. We probably did a good one for American independence).
By February of this new year, 2017, when most Brits should be back from the Christmas break, the world will be dominated by Trump, Putin and Kim Jong-Un. The Chinese will continue their economic colonisation wherever they can and ruffle Asian feathers by building things on rocks in the China Sea. The EU will continue snoozing its way to the next claret round under the administrative prickly non leadership of Jean-Claude Juncker .Here at home Britain's media will be tearing its hair out because of Mrs May's refusal to be on the box every five minutes feeling everybody's pain about anything at all and her refusal to reveal her hand in the potentially tortuous Brexit negotiations. How could she be so insensitive to public opinion? If she felt she had to increase her majority via a snap General Election and the maths played the same sort of tricks as they did in 2016, what would we get next? Comrade Jeremy? If that doesn't make you shudder ,consider this. Four years,- or even a year,- ago,- nobody would have given Trump or Brexit a chance. If the Tories, who have the extremely difficult task of achieving a successful Brexit, something they never wanted in the first place, come to grief and the economy is all over the place with inflation, more devaluation, higher interest rates, higher taxes negative equity in house prices,- any of that or more,- just who would/will people vote for? You saw that here first.
Happy New Year!
