Stop Press- Syria Update. Miliband spots the political gap.

Just as this morning we predicted he might, Labour leader Ed Miliband has spotted the possible big political gap to go for and sharply differentiate between the government and opposition's positions on a punitive strike on Syria . The very tempting possibilty of defeating David Cameron's belicose proposals in tomorow's Commons debate has loomed into his field of view. He must see the opportunity as just too good to miss, whatever he believes are the merits of the case. That's raw politics.

 He has had no qualms in doing this cartwheel or handbrake turn from his broadly supportive position position after 10 Downing Street put their hands around his shoulders and went through the evidence and allegedly moral arguments so far with him yesterday. Unless he accepts a bit of a fudge it is unlikely that his demands for more conclusive proof of who was responsible for the chemical attack can be met. There is therefore the real possibility of Labour voting against the government.

If Labour can now bring through the "no" lobby with them other unconvinced , questioning or firmly hostile MPs in both the Conservative and Liberal Democrats and the fringe parties, they could  defeat the Prime Minister's motion. Until at least the 1960s,  democratic and parliamentary convention on an issue as major as this would have meant that the losing PM would respond with words along the lines of :" I will take my case to the country" and it would be game over. Parliament would have been dissolved and a new General Election would have taken place in the mercifully short minimum time of three weeks. The country would have pronounced its verdict and in the meantime no action would have been possible.

Such honourable and genuinely democratic action is now highly unlikely from any party. The convention has lapsed and been ignored more than once. A defeat would though leave the Prime Minister with a very public international and domestic black eye, particularly if, as seems likely, he has already done a Blair and guaranteed Britain's support for action to President Obama. Constitutionally he could still proceed. He is entitled to do that. The price though, especially if things went wrong and/or the punitive mission were not self contained or involved substantial civilian fatalities and damage, could be terminal to both Mr Cameron and his government.

And as we said earlier today, all Mr Cameron had to worry about a week ago was keeping his beach towel in place while he wriggled around publicly changing his swimming trunks. Maybe he will begin to wish he were back there by that rock. The majority of the electorate are back there already. Has nobody told him?

Flashman at the Charge.....

Only a week ago, in man -of -the people mode on a Cornish beach, our dear leader offered an unecessary and risky photo opportunity just yards from his rented accomodation by executing a change of beachwear while wrapped in a beach towel. The end of the long school holidays was coming into sight, there was a tinge of autumn about the early morning air and the real New Year when schools and parliament (behaviourally they have much in common) reassemble was nigh. "Oh God our help in ages past..." would soon be sung throughout the land.

Now, a week later that hymn seems even more appropriate. The local TV news continues its ever rolling stream of murders, rapes, burglaries and the rest as if all were normal. The national and international screens and pages though show dramatic and fast gathering dark clouds. Things have suddenly changed .There is real danger about, even if everyday life in Britain continues almost oblivious of it.  Many may not have noticed but Flashman has replaced beach man. We would have been safer if he hadn't.

The trigger to the American and British leaders' furrowed brows and outrage has been the murder of 400 Syrians in a chemical attack orchestrated seemingly by President Assad. Whether or not he is the guilty party has not yet been ascertained,- and may never be. On the face of it he has the least reason to use such weapons. He would be well aware that the US reaction in particular could see his residences and other places reduced to heaps of rubble. More likely would be their use by one of the assorted rebel factions in an attempt to discredit the regime. This though is the Levantine Middle East where bluff, double and triple bluff can all be part of the tapestry. It is always difficult to ascertain who is really up to what and where the intertwined or conflicting threads lead. British embassies have moved away from diplomacy towards trade and aid (the dreaded DFiD).  As spookery has at the same time moved away from human towards electronic activity, getting a three dimensional feel for what is going on out of sight is more difficult than it used to be. Having multiple layers of ears and eyes in the world's embassies, government offices and oppositions, down through to coffee shops, hosteries, meeting places where people meet ,talk and speculate right down to the very lowest levels of society was a very good recipe for getting real fixes on the realities . It minimised the risk of dangers of disinformation coming from all kinds of disparate groups and interests being wrongly accepted as the truth. Nothing beats being able to differentiate between the good, the bad and the downright ugly.

Death from a chemical attack is particularly unpleasant. For this reason the deployment of chemical weapons has become the boundary between so far "acceptable", even if grisly, deaths of 200,000 + people in Syria and 400 in this event. This red line was created by Obama and despite encouragment from Cameron he may well be regretting it. It will though be difficult to get himself off this uncomfortable hook now. It is understandable emotionally but not logically. A death is a death. Dying by being buried alive when a cruise missile hits the building you are in ,- as will almost certainly happen ,- is at least as awful and grim. We are prepared to do that in the name of morality. It being our missile makes it all different.

The UK's Flashman is seemingly on an adrenaline fuelled roll. He is leading the charge to the UN today seeking a mandate for military action. Most other nations are understandably and prudently silent. France, with its long standing interests and involvement in Syria, is said to be with us but where are they? The American military, once let off the leash is always up for a scrap. It avoids them being cut down in size and influence, so what is there for them not to like about a new "initiative"?

From the point of view of domestic politics, both Obama and Cameron are moving out onto an exposed limb with all this, and Cameron especially so. In the USA Obama may please the opposition Republicans far more than his own party. In the UK Cameron may not please anybody very much. Certainly straw polls show 60+% of the British population as not favouring yet another Middle East intervention. Two dismal ones have been enough. Out of step with many in his own party ,Clegg is likely to coat tail behind Cameron with a few mumbled caveats "Just the one strike" etc to give himself partial rear end coverage later. Ed Miliband is the man with the biggest dilemma,- and opportunity. If he were bold and brave he would come straight out with an "Absolutely No" to any proposal for military intervention. He would say that we have to wean the Middle East,- and other parts of the world,-off the notion that the UK or the west or anyone else will ride to the rescue once any conflict reaches a certain level of nastiness. (Even here we are selective. We have stood by and watched,- and continue to do so,- even worse things in Africa). Foreigners will never be thanked for their interventions, even when they go well. Close to home is France eternally grateful for British assistance in two World Wars? Miliband could establish clear water here between Labour and its rivals. Apart from ruthlesly elbowing his brother though, he has not so far shown himself to be a man of great courage. He may therefore fear the risk of being handed a white feather especially if the "initiative" went well more than he relishes the idea of being the man who said "No" all along if it goes badly. It's likely therefore that he will go along with the coalition in tomorrow's Commons debate and vote but hedge his position with a lot more rear end protection than Clegg does. Such is the stature of our politicians.

The notion of a single or short series of punitive strikes on Syria is absurd and dangerous. Agaqin, it presumes that our moral Tomahawk missiles are different from Syria's immoral chemicals although the results are just as nasty and on past performance just as random. Innocent people who simply want to get on with their lives in normal homes, villages, towns and cities rather than ruined wastelands which will cost years and billions to rebuild are likely to be killed in our display of moral outrage. Our leaders may feel good but will the newly bereived and the maimed or dispossessed who are the supposed beneficiaries?  We will have wiped clean our consciences. They will have paid the price. Does it all make any sense? Punitive missions to teach foreigners a lesson are a throwback to a long gone age.

There is no guarantee that this will be a one off event. What if Syria retaliates? It has substantial and well equipped armed forces. Air defence systems come courtesy of Russia. Unless these are destroyed  any Tornado or other invading aircraft may not to come back. Are we ready for that?  What if Syria fires a missile or several into Israel who then retaliates against Syria and one of its other suppliers, Iran? And then Iran................?  The potential nightmare is obvious and yet Cameron pontificates as if there were no question about it not all being over by the weekend and, allowing strife in Syria just to return to the normal higher, but morally acceptable, attrition rate courtesy of  AK47s, bombs, and routine murders by all sides. None of the contestants is likely to be remotely democratic or even pro-western. Life, strife and illiberalism will continue as before until there is some kind of a negotiated settlement or there is nobody left standing.

Why therefore are we, on this pleasant pre-autumnal afternoon, facing a possibly diabolical September and real New Year? Everyone, including David Cameron, was safer when he was just taking off his swimmers on a Cornish beach. At least then he was almost certainly wearing a hidden safety garment underneath it all then in case it all went wrong. Now he's not. That means we aren't either.

UK under threat- Official. The Met Office says so. But there is right Royal good news too.

Life in Britain this summer is ever on a meterorological knifedge.

Thank goodness for Government warnings, blue, green red, yellow, amber,- more colours on offfer than in an Italian ice cream shop. Their meanings range from " Go outside and flee (Floods like you've never seen before are on the way) ,It is safe to go outside (It will be cloudy, and dull but not rain much ,-ie standard UK) to " On no account go outside" (It will be warm and sunny). Once upon a time weather forecasts were reliably factual, to be interpreted by the individual brains of "ordinary people" (Milibandspeak for "dim plebs"). Most seemed to survive to more or less the going average lifespan for their age group . Could we now though get by without the Gummnt telling us what to do?

Probably inspired by the US 24 hour a day weather channels and their breathlessly excited pronouncements of "Have we got a storm for you", followed by "Wow, that one went away",our weather media has been trying to sex up its act. Gone are the boring old lags who knew their trade professionally and  give or take the odd hurricane,were normally pretty much right. When they were wrong it didn't matter too much because nobody regarded it as much more than a weighted bet anyway. In have come generally much better looking presenters .Although their knowledge of the subject  may be a little sketchy and their role is to point at a map and trot out what a script or their earpiece says, they do look nice.

So far we have survived Summer 2013 and just have August to get through until shock horror forecasts of the direst of winters start coming thick and fast. Only the thick and slow should pay too much attention.

While we have all been glued to the 24 hour channels to see how imminent is our doom, we have had the alternative breathless reporting from outside a hospital,outside a palace and inside a few studios. The subject?  Goings on, -and not,- in the unfolding story of the royal pregnancy, royal birth, royal naming, royal breakfast,lunch, tea , room. Some news channel crews had been camped outside this hospital for three weeks. There are some terrible jobs in this world. The moment that the Duchess went into the hospital triggered the most entertaining marathon of pass the parcel commentating between the lead correspondents standing outside the hospital ("Nothing happening here Bill "), the colleague standing outside "Palace" ("Nothing happening here Bill") back to the anchor ("Nothing happening here but we haven't got anything else covered so back to you outside the hospital"). For sheer vacuousness it was a 48 hour  classic.

To get away from Hospital, Palace and Studio one had to switch to Al Jazeera, the channel which now far outperforms our domestic offerings for real global news coverage. Way back in the 1970s the Reuter teletype news drops in lobbies around the world started displacing dear old Auntie. Those have now given way to the Doha and even a Russia based 24 hour TV alternatives. BBC World still dominates much of the non American English speaking world's radio news listening but its long established left of centre stance has always clouded its objectivity.Unfortunately most of non coastal America has little interest in much beyond its borders even if it knows there is anything out there.

The good thing is that the British come out of the week without having to worry about at least the next 80 or so years of royal succession and we won't have to further discuss the merits of a Queen during most of our lifetimes. Pity really. This one has done very well despite having seemingly been in a quick-frozen time warp since the day of her accession in 1952. In fact, aided by the always entertaining Duke, she seems to do better by the day. Her workload is incredible for an 87 year old even if it is achieved with a substantial backup team covering almost all aspects of her life. Whether people like the idea of a monarchy or not they have to admit that her and the Duke's work ethic and devotion to duty regardless of discomfort (Remember the boat procession up the Thames during last year's Jubilee procession?) is an outstanding role model for anyone of any age anywhere in the world.

We have more to look forward to this summer. Our post Olympic sporting prowess has continued on a roll. Often capable of losing anything right up the the last (legal) kick, ball, or yard, we have beaten the Ozzies on the rugby pitch and look as if we could do the same in cricket. Thanks to the Scottish lad becoming British we have won Wimbledon and thanks to the Kenyan one also becoming British we have also triumped in the Tour de France. We will be able to go into the autumn and winter with sporting heads held high..... Then there is the England football team and remainder of the European Cup qualifiers. Oh dear.  

UK Transport policies in the slow lane? No.

Regrettably not.

Almost all transport plans and developments are not in any lane. 

They are stuck in the car park.

A few lesser ones , mainly on the railways are under way, but many haven't even got to the decision making stage or, beyond that , starting the planning process. They are firmly in the car park and not even at the exit.

Why?

Scene: The Prime Minster's office:

Sir Howard Davies (Leader of the Airports Commission, due to make its recommendations on London capacity in 2015 despite a list of options being published this year):

"We've got the submissions from Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted Sir. We've also got our own work on alternatives like White Waltham , Haddenham and a few others ".(Why is Roskill 1973- recommmended Wing/Cublington never mentioned?). "We could put the whole lot together and make our recommendations this year if you like".

PM: "What is there about Not Before The 2015 General Election that you don't understand ? Once that's out of the way we can do anything we like, -and if we can't Labour will do it anyway. They were on the brink of going ahead at Heathrow but we put a stop to that. Think of that, we would be doing something -the diggers would be in right now. Terrible. Go away and waste some more time like you were told to do".

           "Sorry sir. My mistake, See you,-or someone,- in 2015."

Meanwhile over at HS 2, Britain's planned second domestic high speed railway line, a hybrid bill to enable building to start needs to start its journey through parliament this autumn if it is to be passed in the lifetime of this government.If it isn't completed by May 2015 it will have to start again. At the moment there is no sign of the required urgency. In the meantime the very well planned and orchestrated opposition lobby centred in the Chilterns ,through which all but 3.1 of  its 12.4 mile passage will be in expensive tunnels or cuttings, is steadily ploughing ahead and building opposition into a sort of dinner party fashion amongst public figures despite its objectives being primarily parochial even when wrapped in a respectable cover of national interest . The need for more track and line capacity is immediate and there are no real options . 

Processes for transport projects are glacial and most are opposed and fought all the way. Even minor schemes face up to six years of planning processes, hearings, appeals and judicial reviews .Talk of building infrastructure and capacity for future generations cuts little ice in the Treasury or amongst opponents.

Very little other than filling in about £10 bn worth of potholes on the roads is immediately shovel ready . Even there money is squandered by botch filling rather than proper lasting repairs. Africa learned pothole repairing techology decades ago. First world UK doesn't yet seem to understand it.

As for major road strategy and development, a major programme of improvements has been announced . Much of it is along the routes Airnthere outlined on 1st July. It would focus more on upgrading single carriageway A roads to near motorway dual carriageway standards than building new motorways but it would do great things for the areas concerned. "Not so fast" retort the "Say No To.." groups. Any improvement anywhere near to a national park, the Lake District, the Norfolk Broads, the South Downs or "area of outstanding natural beauty" is claimed to be "devastating" it even if it just goes around the edges as do all of the projects concerned .The A595 doesn't cut through the lakes . It improves access to them but goes around the  struggling Cumbrian Coast . The A47 from Acle to Yarmouth  is already there , improves access to some of the broads country and especially to run down, drab Yarmouth . It doesn't wreck the Broads . Similarly the A27/259  runs to the north of the South Downs, improves access to them and benefits east-west coastal traffic, access to the Channel tunnel and gives a string of towns an economic boost.  It does nothing to the downs themselves. Unblocking the bottleneck to going to depressed Hastings by dualling its lst 20 miles is claimed to be destroying the Weald and ancient woodlands of Kent and Sussex. It would do nothing of the sort but would boost employment in Hastings. And so it goes on nationwide.  These and other depressed areas need all the help they can get to boost their economies, remove barriers to business and trade and to create large numbers of new jobs.  Many feet are though out to trip them up.

Unfortunately for the UK ,the opposing well heeled "Say no To.." groups, the tortuous planning processes and general inertia and lack of courage in Whitehall and Parliament all conspire to make even the opening of a village bypass a very long process. As result,despite some bold declarations of intent, promising billions to be spent ,not a lot of the big things are actually  happening. Fortunately a few smaller ones are. For  that we can thank pure dogged determination or ,occasionally, stealth. The biggest missing ingredients are political courage and Whitehall's abilty to do anything quickly and simply. It's just not part of the culture.

It's end of term!- and a look ahead.

Yes, Parliament broke up for the summer hols last Friday . Those MPs who weren't already off "working from home", or somebody else's home,departed for the 6 week break before they return to tidy up unfinished business before starting again for real in October. That's just in time for Christmas. The new political season marks the beginning of 18 months countdown to the May 2015 General Election . Things could get a bit fractious. In 2010, despite the coalition with the Lib Dems, David Cameron quickly moved away any ideas of a more mature, cooperative type of parliamentary politics. This was a serious missed opportunity .One result of that is that the approach to the election is more likely to be bitter and destructive trench warfare with ground savagely fought over inch by inch  and much Question Time shouting rather than the period of calm and just getting things done that many of the electorate would prefer (and which would win Cameron votes). The 2015 result is anybody's guess. Polling figures generally point to a Labour win, possibly with a reasonable overall majority but other indications question that. Few see Ed Miliband as a credible Prime Minister and while there is no love for Cameron he emerges as the better of the two from that respect. Clegg doesn't feature as anything but a possible and irritating partner of either party in a new coalition. Neither wants him or the LibDems but may have to put up with them to achieve an overall majority.

Among  many "Too difficult" items left strewn around the table as the boys and girls headed gleefully to the exits were Syria, Egypt (What to do? Answer,-which should appeal,-nothing), HS 2 (Answer,- stop dithering and letting its opponents have a ball ,- go build it), London airport runways (Answer- build 2 more where they need to be-Heathrow). The overall advice to Mr Cameron would be to get a grip on loose ends, state the Government's position clearly and firmly and LEAD. On Syria this is difficult. The sensible advice of "Sit this one out" seems to have been heeded, but now we are told that Mrs C is pushing the the idea of more involvement across the kitchen supper table at Number 10. We wait to see what the summer's sunlounger talk will produce.

Away from our shores BP continues to get a pasting from the lawyers and others in the USA. Encouraged by a naive, if well meaning,open cheque book approach ,it seems that an almost endless queue of claimants is lining up by the day. No doubt some are genuine but.... BP are alarmed that the administration of the scheme, entrusted to "independent" American lawyers feels like it's getting out of hand. Their appeal to a US Court to get some of the alleged deficiencies investigated and sorted has been rejected. Well, what a surprise. Did they, as a foreign company,ever expect to win that one? What if they have to sell some of their assets to pay for all this compensation,- who would buy? Could it just be that they would be snapped up by US rivals at distress sale prices ? If it came to that one could only hope that just desserts were handed out by late and succesful bids from Russia, China or any of those countries who don't have a special relationship with the USA.

The Gulf of Mexico folk aren't the only ones lining up hopefully for compensation for alleged past sins by perfidious Albion. Fair enough we have been and remain pretty perfidious .We have had our moments of deviousness and still do, but that doesn't mean we stand guilty of all accusations at all times since the beginning of time. Just how far back is it reasonable and sensible to go back with recriminations, demands for compensation,or apologies? The British Government has paid up for alleged atrocities against the Mau Mau, probably more to avoid an even longer and more drawn out process  involving much time and large payments to lawyers. Flushed with that success one Kenyan tribe is considering claims for alleged misdeeeds in the 1890s. (The same Mau Mau "veterans" have yet to offer compensation to the large numbers of fellow Kenyans they tortured or killed). Don't we have something on the Romans, Danes, French and others who at various times in history laid waste to or seized much of our property, at the same time as vastly increasing our gene pool?

Many current conflicts could be avoided if all concerned agreed to draw a line under the past, especially the past of more than 5 years ago and agreed simply that "Things happened. Now though is the time to get over it, move on and not be burdened with the baggage of centuries.  The world would be a better place overnight."

That though is unlikely to happen. Many countries, racial groups, tribes , towns and even villages have rivalries, bitterness and hatred going back centuries .There are factions so devoted to settling old scores and perpetuating divisions that little else dominates their lives or gives them more satisfaction. Regrettably and contrary to all that any divine being or entity would surely want, many of these stem from the mainstream religions, their hieracrchies, and the conflict and intolerance between them as they fight for dominance on the one hand or survival on the other.

Another activity which holds back a better future is the constant glorification of past victories. This is a particularly British favourite. We do the ceremonials superbly, truly better than anyone else. The occasional one or two are fine but one fears for the arrival of 2014 . There will then be four years of it being a hundred years since every battle fought in World War 1. Are we going to relive it day by day to ensure that nobody's memory is left out?  If so ,once that's over it's not too long to wait until we can do the same with World War 2. The best way we can show our respect for past combatants of all sides is to use our skills , emotions and energies concentrating positively on the future.It was the future not the present that they were fighting for. That must have been their only source of inspiration or comfort as they faced often appalling conditions, day in and day out . They had no idea if they would see another day. They walked out to fighters, bombers, other aircraft, ships or ground combats knowing that not all of them would return. Parents, children, loved ones lived each day on the edge of an emotional nightmare. In WW 2 urban civilians knew that they and their families could be obliterated at any time. That's how they lived ,-and got on with their lives each day. The future is their memorial,not the past. One rock we should remember though is that they did what needed to be done regardless of danger or discomfort. The recent history of that culture is not so good.

(Unapologetic) Corporate Yuckspeak of the week...

The Post Office will make further improvement in this area and take better account of individual circumstances going forward"

-Paula Vennells, CEO, Post Office talking about changes to Post Office procedures/malfunctions of its computer system after they have been confirmed as a possible cause of eroneous statements of underpayments by sub postmasters which have cost some tens of thousands of pounds and even imprisonment.

Egypt,- Morsi on the brink.

Egyptian President Modammed Morsi and his country stands on the brink of disaster as result of his own intransigence and refusal to accept political realities. For a man of his standing and assumed intelligence this is a situation he should never have got into.

He and his party won the June 2012 Election, beating his opponent, Ahmed Shafik, by 51.7% to 48.3%, a sliver of a victory. Most would understand that this gave him mandate to govern almost as a neutral, holding the balance between the two parties rather than to seek to dominate by visibly pushing the interests and policies of his own Islamic Brotherhood's interests over those of the opposition. Unfortunately he has chosen not to. He has thereby compromised Egypt's fragile nascent democracy and risked anything up to and including civil war amongst its citizens. The degree of intolerance he has thus demonstrated is breathtaking and may well lead to the death of many Egyptians.

What the army now does and how it does it will now be crucial, but Morsi will stand responsible for having brought on their intervention. One can only hope for a sudden change of direction away from obstinate confrontation to one of reconciliation. Doing an about turn at the last minute is better than never doing it at all,- but there is a risk that having brought things to this pass it may already be too late for Mr Morsi,- and Egypt. Particularly by moving away from Egypt' secular based and tolerant politics and promoting his more religion based constitutional reforms, Morsi has sharply polarised rather than united his country. The Middle East needs more healing, not less. Egypt needs stability both for its people and its economy of which international foreign currency bearing tourism is a vital part and employer.

Iran in particular will be looking to see what opportunities for misbehavior and mischief  the Egyptian situation now presents. They are already busy in the destruction of Syria and have to be looking at opportunities to fan Turkey's moves away from Ataturk's outstandingly successful secularism. The last thing they need is encouragement to meddle in Egypt as well.

Go in peace.