The Silly Season is upon us. "Parliament may close for 5 years"- Sunday Times headline.

Yes, there it was to cheer us all up this morning. But...of course it was too good to be true and the article was about the need to refurbish the place, strip out asbestos, century old plumbing and ancient electric wiring . It wasn't  a scheme just to shut up its incumbents and let the country sort itself out without them for 5 years.

Putting that aside what else has occupied the "Silly Season" this past week?

-The core of the season,-when the media scrape any ballel for stories as the world is on holiday,- is this year squeezed from its usual six weeks during the core school holidays into about three. That's the gap between the pages-filling Olympics and the slighly less pages-filling Paralympics which will give a final ten day burst to Britain's carnival summer which started with the Royal Jubilee in June. The politicians are on hols bar the odd photoshoot of Dave, one in the sun at a Spanish cafe and one, yesterday, bravely sitting outside another in Cornwall  between heavy bursts of rain. Nobody has bothered to photograph Ed in Greece , Nick in Spain or any of the Ballses anywhere. Goodness knows or cares where all the rest are, but hopefully they really are on holiday , having a good time and taking in some deep gulps of fresh air to aerate the grey cells so that, genuinely refreshed , they can contemplate the world unbefuddled, from some new angles and with revitalised energy. There's no harm in hoping.

-Shock horror from disappointed parents, children, teachers and their ghastly unions who exist in a world of denial that all teachers everywhere are anything but excellent. (One thing they never do is ask the kids, never mind the parents, for a view). Some grade boundaries have been re-set . That has produced a 0.4 % decline in average grades this year after years of constant inflation while real standards have declined. True, that  it is tough on those who can say that if they'd sat the exams last January or last year when the barriers were lower they would have got a higher grade but the process needs to continue for quite a while as standards are moved up, questions are made more demanding and more weight is given to exams rather than ongoing course work so that the answers genuinely come from the pupils , not Mum and Dad or Wikipedia.

-More shock horror, sanctimonious handwringing and the like from some quarters over right royal goings on in Las Vegas on the part of Prince Harry. The man is 27, single, is a real soldier/airman, knows that the batchelor life can't last much longer, so what can one expect. Interestingly 68% of the British population range from slightly bemused to "good on you" stances. The remaining 32% range from "How can he do this when we are facing austerity (what?),-why isn't he sharing our pain?" through layers of the hypocritical whose real thoughts are probably more like "Lucky ------" to those who genuinely do feel that he is too old for these kinds of displays and should grow up and act with decorum. With the latter one can sympathise but the rest...no.  The Prince probably does though need to discard some of his hangers-on who will probably never grow up and now best left behind.

-Over in America, BAe who have invested heavily in the country in hopes of gaining access to its military market lost its bid to build a new Humvee for the army. No surprise other than that BAe, not all American boys however much they like to look like ones, should be surprised. Not long ago they were beneficiaries when Airbus won a contract to supply a tanker/transport version of the A330 to replace the US Air Force tanker fleet. Howls of anguish all round. Eventually the contract was suspended, the specification rewritten to fit a smaller aircraft and lo and behold the rerun went to a version of the Boeing 767 whose well amortised  civil production line is winding down. The real home team won. Let's be realistic. It always will.

-While still on that side of the Atlantic, viewers from this side of the pond can only gape as the Republican  Party wheels out a Presidential candidate and running mate whose agendas look so illiberal, (no to abortion)  bellicose (Middle East), hard faced (opposition to Obama's abandonment of a"pay or die" health regime), as to be downright scary. That may also be true in the Democrat heartlands most familiar to foreigners,- the North East and West Coast but in those areas where few from overseas tread they are part of what people believe America is or should be. Frighteningly for the rest of the world many/most Republicans really do believe they have God on their side. And their version of God isn't a particularly smiley one.

-As for Syria the cent/ penny about known and unknown genies unbottled by the events has begun to drop in Washington and London. Assad has been warned not to think about using his store of chemical weapons (wonder where those came from?) with a rider that nobody else should think of using them either. With the eventual outcome of this particular branch of the Arab Spring which has moved through a number of stages from demonstrations to civil war almost impossible to predict other than that Assad will eventually go, there are  grave concerns about who might eventually end up posessing this nasty pile and what they might do with them.

-South Africa has had a bad week. A three cornered but more multi faceted than that spat between two rival unions and the mining company Lonmin, for which read any other mine employer opens up some of the fault lines facing the country and why it isn't getting the new inward investment it needs to provide a vast number of new jobs. In the mix are the rough, tough nature of the country's unions, the fact that much of South Africas's mining wealth has always been founded on cheap labour, the needs of businesses to stay competitive with (low) Asian wage rates, the failure of the employers and government to upgrade the physical living conditions for the miners and the poor and to get rid of the extensive shanty towns with their lack of adequate water ,electricity ,sanitation and paved roads , where crime and brutality inevitably thrive. Expectations from the New South Africa were always higher than could be met in the short term but the lack of visible improvement in many areas has produced enormous pressures very close to the surface. In the rural districts, especially in the Transvaal , this has been manifested by ongoing murders of white farmers, mainly Afrikaaners. Elsewhere including in the vast sprawling shanty towns between Capetown and the nearby wine growing and resort area at Somerset West and around the mines ,it is surprising that there has not been more trouble. Urgent action and a lot of money is urgently needed to improve conditions all round. Failing that it is difficult to see how things can remain as peaceful as they are.

-Closer to home Eurowoes continue. Hasn't it ever occured to most Eurozone leaders that when those who want to cut a deal, gain more time etc, they don't go to Amsterdam, Luxemburg or anywhere other than just the two places, Berlin and Paris. Doesn't that tell the rest that for all their denials that they have lost any sovereignty in signing up to "The Project" they have indeed done just that and when the chips are down there are only two players who call the shots? It's not much different for the non Eurozone E U countries either. Fine if all the member states are really happy with that but how many have put the question to their citizens?
Meanwhile both Germany and France have given some short term comfort to the Greek " We need more time" supplication . After initially looking very stony faced about the idea ,both countrys'  "Greece must stay in the Euro" statements make it look as if Athens' day of reckoning may be delayed and billions more thrown in to achieve that respite. That looks like an  expensive form of denial. It is unlikely that a Greek exit would be disastrous for the Euro. In fact it could be regarded as a useful trial of the whole process and effects of an a country binning the joint currency and provide useful learning about how to handle other looming and much bigger resource sapping candidates.

Usually Britain's August bank on the last Monday of the month holiday signals a mass return from summer holiday retreats and the imminent beginning of the new school term and the nation being almost all back to work for the first time since "the season" began with Ascot, Henley and Wimbledon in June. This year because of the way the dates fall, that doesn't happen until after next weekend, the first in September. Then there are a few more days lull while everyone readjusts, buys new uniforms, and basks in the last of the summer (?) weather as the first autumnal early morning dew and that unmistakeable nip in the air arrives . On Monday 10th September UK Plc will be almost 100%  back at its desks, facing the post summer hangover, holiday credit card bills, and reaquainting itself with some daunting economic and political realities. The Party conferences will be there to help us .As a curtain raiser the brothers and sisters will have opened the Trade Union Congress annual snarl and rant the previous day. It must be a really fun thing to go to.

The Post Olympic Week,- a quick roundup.

As many of the athletes headed for Heathrow and home on Monday morning after a weekend  of celebrations or sorrows drowning some of Britain returned to mid summer normality and headed back to their offices for the two and a half weeks until the Paralympics. More though also headed to Heathrow and airports around the country to head off on their hols, leaving those at home to enjoy August peace.

The three dear political leaders (OK Nick , we will give you the benefit of the doubt and Ed we know you like to be called that)headed off to Eurozone disaster area. Nick went to the outlaws in Spain and Dave went somewhere not far away though there seems to be some doubt whether he will be asked over for Sunday lunch. With those two in Spain, Ed headed for basket case Greece to feel their pain and hopefully give generously help their financial problems. All very nice and chillaxing but why not try something different, somewhere buzzing and away from Eurozone woes. The typhoons in Hong Kong may not have gone down too well with the ladies but the opportunity to stroll around any of the major 24 hours a day Go-for-It cities of Asia could have given them just the adrenaline or caffeine boosted  feelings they need to get them into a positive frame of mind to bring back to their day jobs. All British MPs could do with walking ,-without minders, advisors , hangers on,-the streets of Hong Kong,Shanghai, Singapore or even Bangkok if they could avoid the obvious nocturnal pitfalls. The daytime hyperactivity ,the night markets, the constant hearing of the word "Dollar" in streets, buses, cafes, restaurants, undergrounds, lifts , materialistic though it might sound would give them a clue that it's time to get the good old home country up and on its feet and actually doing things. The same goes for Euro MPs but maybe that's a hope too far.

Back at the ranch William Hague has been left holding all the babies and waiting to field any unseasonal curved balls. Unfortunately for him there have been some. The harsh threat to invade the Ecuadorian embassy was uncharacteristic and a mistake. It also added to a feeling of unease that all is far from transparent in the Assange saga and that the USA is pulling strings in persuit of their objective of getting their hands on him and that somewhere in the mix the UK is playing its unreciprocated supine role. There looks like being a lot more to this saga than meets the eye and there is more to come on this one.

Meanwhile the Afghanistan adventure looks more and more doomed by the day. For all the billions spent on trying to stabalise the country, and assign the Taliban to history ,there is little other than an ever mounting pile of corpses to show for it. The fiction that it has been a battle worth fighting is maintained by all UK political parties as Labour (Blair) started it and the coalition , to avoid also embarrassing the US and themselves at home ,have failed to get out of the country and accept that ultimately only Afghans will solve Afghanistan. Once the western occupying forces have left the country the Afghans will be able to turn their attention to dealing with the little loved Taliban and the heartily disliked foreign jihadists . Until then the presence of the westerners acts as the only thing which unites their opponents.

Syria doesn't look at all good either and again the role of the west is not helpful. The Arab Spring was all heady stuff  and destined to succeed in some places and, for the time being at least, fail in others as the situations and ingredients in each of the countries are all different. Libya was relatively straightforward with clear options and one side identifiable as baddies (Gaddafi) and the other as at least relative, if disparate , goodies (all the rest). Syria though is a myriad of different factions and interests, some local and some foreign. The Soviets are determined to hang on to their only Mediterranean port, the Iranians see it as an opportunity to meddle, cause confusion and mayhem and ultimately to advance the cause of Persian domination over the otherwise Arab region, using religion as its justifier, the foreign jihadists have their own agenda and Assad doesn't fancy losing power. None is talking democracy or of relatively polite MPs representing orderly constituencies sitting in neat rows and talking through "Mr Speaker sir". Meanwhile in the alleged interests of promoting enforced democracy,  foreigners of all kinds , including the UK ,are flocking to aid anyone falling under the loose definition of "rebels" as if these were indeed honourable, altruistic and democratic groups. In Iraq Saddam brutally dealt with any opposition but his removal has involved hundreds of thousands of innocent civilian deaths, far more than even decades more of his rule would have achieved. Under his iron fist Iraq at least functioned as a country in which most citizens could live in safety and things basically worked . Baghdad was a functiong city. The country was also a secular state in which all religions and branches thereof were tolerated, albeit some more than others. Now it isn't. The same is happening in Syria . The viable state, towns and villages in which most people were safe most of the time are now being reduced to rubble, much of it again falling on innocent civilians . To them getting on with everyday life is worth more than an uncertain democracy designed by foreigners. Worst of all, just as in Afghanistan during the Russian occupation, the regime topplers are flooding the place with arms and ammunition which guarantee instablity, fighting and more deaths for years to come. Mr Hague has just thrown in another £5 million for "communications equipment". So much for his (European) summer.


Putin's Russia can seldom resist the chance to machinegun its own feet when its leader's blood pressure is pushed up by any sign of protest particularly if it involves any kind of disrespect, humour or fresh new and young public appeal. Pussy Riot has got right up his nose and induced extreme sense of humour failure, not that there's a lot that's funny in Russia in the first place. It is little wonder its citizens, in public at least ,are not given to oubursts of great hilarity unless of course the vodka has taken hold. Aided and abetted by that other bastion of Russian repression and the  "Know your place and don't question anything " philosophy and illiberatism, the Russian Orthodox Church, one of whose leaders has described Putin's regime as a wonderful miracle, the Pussys are to enjoy two years in the slammer. That's not good for anybody's health and does nothing for anybody's wellbeing and certainly not Russia's or Putin's. Always fear those without humour. They are very dangerous anywhere.

Across the Channel the Euro goes staggering on. As almost all European politicians are away for most of August it isn't getting all the attention it needs and the Euro supertanker sails on ever closer to the rocks while the Captains, other ironically than Mrs Merkells, pretend they see none. More alarmingly some even continue to believe there actually aren't any and that if there really turn out to be some the German lifeboat will sail out to rescue them . They can't have noticed the steely look in Mrs Merkells' eye. Foolish. She is very clear about her agenda.

The domestic political scene is seasonally and thankfully quiet certainly as far as Labour and the Lib Dems are concerned.  It's not quiet enough though for the Tory machine to avoid stumbling  into its own PR bear traps. Inconsistency is a big problem for them in trying to avoid the "nasty party" image. It is a mistake while calling for one Olympic legacy to be more sport in schools (though how many potential Olympians will be deterred for ever by good old fashioned compulsory school sports is another matter) for Michael Gove to quietly slip out relaxations to the rules governing the sale of school sports fields. Whether intended or not, this looks too much like wicked Tories helping out old mates in the property development business. This is something which the otherwise highly intelligent Mr Gove should have understood, foreseen and avoided. Tim Yeo, Chairman of the the Commons Environmental Audit Committee and  a member of The Commons Energy and Climate Change Committe having paid roles with the green industry isn't too bright an idea by the Party either. Consistency, Consistency, Consistency is essential for a coherent, honest and credible political party. Time for a crack of the Whip Mr Cameron.

Have a good and warm weekend. Spend any Euros in your pocket while the going's good.

Olympic Gold,- a political takeaway.

The success of London's Olympics has so far been stunning, not just for the althletes or Team GB and the enormously enthusiastic spectators but for the UK rising to the occasion and delivering something many , in particular the ever-carping media and even more carping BBC believed it never could. The feeling of fun, the efforts of the 70,000 McDonalds trained volunteers, the transport and logistics seen and unseen have been magnificent. Above all, rising above the appalling weather of most of the summer, the economic gloom (would you like your recession double or triple?), Britain has delivered a message it is still very much in business and that given the right leadership, drive to get things done and high profile stage: "Yes we can".

This is in blinding contrast to the acccustomed drip feed, starting in some classrooms and thereafter reinforced by burocracy ,dumbing down , political correctness,over regulation, EU directives ,labour "agreements" and disincentives of all kinds of "No you can't".

It has also made competing and winning respectable. It has shown that untiring endeavour against all kinds of odds, the endurance of  personal pain and sacrifices and utter commitment to an aim can achieve success and is worth going for. Also it is no use blaming anyone else for unlevel playing fields, perceived injustices, family backgrounds, traumatic youth,- the only way is to forget all that and get on with it. Your life is your own and you don't need to call in the counsellors.

All this came as a surprise to many pundits .The largely London metrocentric miserabalist media are much happier with "the cuts", "It'll never work", "It's unfair" headlines. Their judgement of national and regional mood has long been poor. Like politicians and some diplomats, they don't sit and listen in the right places. They tend to talk amongst themselves and those of like minds in a somewhere out of this world social bubble. Many of them were caught seriously off guard by popular enthusiasm for the Royal Jubilee and couldn't understand it until almost too late. The admiration for the incredible devotion to duty displayed by the Queen  and Duke of Edinburgh standing for over two hours on a rain drenched barge and its reciprocation by even more drenched spectators .  Add the admiration for the perseverance on that day's finale by the Royal College of Music's Chamber Choir of frozen drowned rats and there was every reason for a rethink about how the Olympics should be handled.

The media should be grateful for the right royal warning but even then they continued in largely downbeat vein until, a few days before the Games began they appeared to realise that they risked being starkly out of step with the real national mood . They suddenly changed foot, willingly or unwillingly ,and adopted an upbeat, fun, enthralled even ,approach. The BBC's commentators have been so sucessful that now their Director General has told  them to cool the patriotism.

A huge Olympic bonus has come from an unexpected quarter. The absence from our screens of politicians and politics. Only the ebullient Boris Johnson has made an impression. There have been occasional glimpses of others, especially Dave who always looks as if he's wearing a suit even when he isn't, and Ashen Nick who  has only appeared only once (see below for the success that wasn't). Of  New Old Labour the Eds and the rest have been absent, maybe abroad, who cares? Too much about competition, winning, doing it by the sweat of peoples' own brows and even fun for socialist fundamentalists. They have to feel (your but seldom their own ) pain, struggle but of course never win as that would be elitist. Therein lies their lack of appeal and why what they sell  doesn't work.

But it's worse for them than that. London 2012 has been all about getting it done (even at the expense of having to expensively and unnecessarily buy off the slab faced union heavies), delivering, doing things NOW. It's been about positivism ,being upbeat, overcoming problems on the hoof  and sweeping obstacles out of the way, not about needing further discussions, having an enquiry ,doing nothing, obstructing, preaching. Only Boris, seen as the political face of the Olympics has come out a winner . That, despite being lambasted as an Etonian toff, sometimes looking like a buffoon, is because instead of being grey and dull and from another planet he seems to many from the top of society to the bottom to be very much of this one. He is fun, speaks "human", and off the cuff, can engage easily and unpatronisingly with anyone, doesn't mind making  mistakes and is unconventional. Whether or not he would make a good Prime Minister is another matter but he would at least start by being a popular one.

This raises the bar for the coming political season starting with the "Conferences" in September to Olympian levels. It was ironic that in the middle of this festival of "Go for it", "Get it done", Clegg chose to solemnly announce that his party would give the Tories an illiberal retaliatory black eye for being unable to deliver House of Lords reform, something about 2% of the country regard as a priority.  On the same day  Ms. Mensch announced that she would be quitting as an MP only 2 years into her 5 year term, thereby ditching those who voted for her and leaving her party with an almost unwinnable by-election. So much for Olympian spirit by both of them. They probably expected big headlines as if anyone cared. They got them for a few short hours and then slipped off the screens again and out of sight. Most people just didn't give a damn. That's where they both have helped the interest in and status and respect of politics and politicians to come to.

 The message to Dave, Nick and Ed therefore is that they have by default allowed the summers' big events to highlight them and their programmes as dull, pedestrian, unimaginitave, lacking in "Can do" and " Now!" None of them has a " Man,-or even Person,- of the People" image. It may be too late for any of them to do anything about it .That being the case ,their parties have to find new ways out of the post Blair/Brown mess with fresh leaders, new bounce and sense of connecting with the electorate. For a start the furrowed brows, studied seriousness, indignation  and greyness have to go. That's just where Boris, surrounded by an energetic and able team to actually do the biz could burst upon the stage. It's probably the Conservatives' and even the country's only hope. For Nick and friends in wind powered, Europe-hugging la la land there is no hope and for the Eds and their Olympics-ransoming union paymasters let's pray there's none either.

Dave of Arabia,- and a holiday recommendation.

David Cameron's end of summer term visit to the forces in Afghanistan will be handled  by his hosts with courtesy and professional tolerance. Most though have seen enough politicians' visits during their careers to treat apparent sincerity on these occasions with a pinch of salt. They know that the real audience is back home , but hope that in accepting that they will be receive some useful crumbs of comfort and recognition. Allowances for putting themselves in danger of a fatal or normal life destroying bullet or explosive device have been improved but are still insignificant in cost per day compared to such things as London transport staff , including the Euston train cleaners, bonuses for bravery (or even just doing their jobs and also receiving overtime as well) , in the face of the Olympics.

Beneath all the politico-speak everyone with a grain of sense or understanding of the world knows that the UK and its allies should never have put troops into Afghanistan and that it is a costly waste of lives and money. With all the best of naive intentions, once the foreign occupiers have left, Afghanistan is likely to face another unpleasant era of Taleban repression, and misery followed probably by some sort of revolt, tribal or national, which may or may not  produce a more liberal but also more corrupt regime. The west being there has not made the streets of London or anywhere else safer. The bad lads of the  Al Quaeda franchises have simply moved elsewhere, - not very far in many cases ,- but they are still around and there are more effcient, clinical and effective ways of dealing with them than old fashioned boots on the ground. Politically as the Conservative Party never issued a single bleat when Blair/Brown decided to emabark on another Middle East adventure/war they can't say they opposed it and are desparate to achieve "withdrawal with honour". The military though know that means more of their lives will be lost to protect the myth that the losses so far have been "worth it".

While enjoying his time in the dust, Mr Cameron is said also to have "demanded" that Assad leaves power in Syria. Nobody will argue against the fact that Assad and his unpleasant and vicious (if you opposed it) Baath Party rule was undemocratic and should give way to something with more time for human rights and less prone to killing its dissident citizens. They should not forget though, that like the Baath in Iraq, it was a secular regime and the numbers it killed are likely to be far less than those who are dying now and will die in the future western- inspired civil war. The west and the UK can not solve all the world's problems and be its policeman. Bad things will happen, nasty regimes will come and go but usually the really bad periods will be shorter if they are not fuelled , made more complex and worse or prolongued by external intervention. Yes, there are exceptions of course but they should be very, very few.

One would suggest that Mr. Cameron and many other politicians should include in their summer chillaxing some serious reading of  Middle Eastern history. Even Flashman could help the interested but less academic. Once better genned up on that, MPs of all parties should then be forced to spend another fortnight at least on serious study tours of the dyamism of South and North East Asia. They might at least then eventually return to Westminster with eyes a little more open and the brains of the more alert saying "Oh s---!" 

UK Parliament,- Nearly the summer hols.Gasp.!

Like someone in the desert clawing their last few yards to towards the oasis , for David Cameron the end of the parliamentary term just can't come soon enough. It's been a hell of a half and it now being Sunday  the temptation to join many others in bunking off early before the formal end of term on Tuesday must be very strong. Many of his colleagues may well already be on a sun kissed beach (Not here!)

Having since Easter and the budget had to make a series of reverses and in the past week delayed three things,-House of Lords reform, changes to and funding of old people's care and consultation on the future of London area airport capacity have made the Prime Minister look weak and indecisive. There has been tough talking,-eg on the EU and a referendum on it and on bankers' behaviours but perceived weakness in follow through. This inevitably raises the question; "Can he be trusted? Are we seeing his real agenda?"

How has once confident and energetic Cameron got into this mess? What are the underlying problems and why are they not being dealt with? What can he do about it and how?

There are a string of factors, some historic and some recent and current. Here are some:

a) HISTORIC:

-Until recently the Conservative Party had a number of grandees not far from the Prime Ministerial chair. They were a source of advice and guidance and powerful. In extremis they could pay a men (yes they were men) in white coats style visit to the Prime Minister and suggest tactfully or forceably that the time had come for a change. Although there are substantial influences and influencers still about, they do not now occupy the same position.

- Below these figures behind the curtains the demography of MPs was slanted towards the over 40 or 45 age groups. That has changed in all Parties as well as businesses over the last 15 or so years and the slant is now the other way. There are less scarred and battle hardened stalwarts who have seen it all before around to give advice and keep ministers away from cliff edges. The benefits are increased energy levels but they make the avoidance of cliff edges even more important.

- The Party was historically very strong on research, policy compilation and planning. From 1948 to 1980 it had its own Staff College at Swinton Castle near Masham in Yorkshire which ran ongoing seminars, policy weekends and other events covering everything from training of local agents, running election campaigns to high level ideology and policy. This was in addition to Central Office activity in London and participants ranged from university students to ministers. Amongst other things these sessions gave a constant feedback loop from all over Britain. They also gave party managers a good knowledge of MPs, part workers and activists which made it easier to further train and develop them and make sure that their individual skills were appropriately and usefully deployed. The specialist subject weekends in particular gave people personal informal access to ministers to the benefit of both. Altogether Swinton, the Party's third edition of a Staff College performed a number of very useful  functions and strengthened the organisation in ways similar to those deployed by private sector businesses at the time. There is no clear successor to it. One result is this lack of people planning and another the absence of an ongoing coherent master plan to fit a clearly defined political philosophy.(see more on the latter below).

- At grass roots level, there were Working Mens' ( yes, men) Conservative Clubs and the like up and down the country. These were self supporting and brought in true working class members and others to whom alternatives such as the middle class dating agency,- The Young Conservatives,- did not appeal. These have now almost universally disappeared.

b) CURRENT:

-The top of the party leadership is very narrowly based with a strong Eton, Oxbridge and southern England contingent. It lacks reach to and empathy with much beyond north Oxfordshire. It also looks awkward when trying to look like a party of the people. In the home county shires the Conservative Party  looks more like a social networking rather than a political organisation. It is unattractive to new joiners, particularly the young and less well off.  Few gatherings of the faithful are outside Monday to Friday and it doesn't usually go out to find new and more diverse recruits. Many would find themselves uncomfortable if they did turn up.

- Cameron's handling of dissenters has become tetchy. He clearly feels they should be more sympathetic about his extremely difficult task of keeping the ever immature Lib Dems in the coalition but for their part they feel he is not being strong enough in tellingt them to get in line and accept that without this coalition they would not have a sniff of power. In retrospect it might have been better for the Conservatives to take power as a minority government in 2010, court and early defeat and then win a new General Election in Auntumn 2010 while any idea of a return by Labour would almost certainly have been enough to ensure a working majority.

- There is no central , passionately driven political philosophy from which all policies coherently flow. As result what is done looks patchy and too easily looks like reaction rather than action. The revived Old Labour is much clearer in its objectives, particularly now that its deep seated antipathy to the rich and successful has been reinforced by the behaviour of the easily pilloried bankers. This target has also usefully diverted attention from them fact that only a year ago the naughty step was shared by expenses -fiddling politicians of all parties. Ed Miliband and his union sponsors are heavily back into class warfare and believe it will deliver the desired majority in the next General Election.

- As result of its very tight inner core, the parliamentary party is feeling sore and not listened to. Ministers find themselves strongly supporting policy only to find that without consultation or even reasonable notice it suddenly changes beneath their feet and they are left looking and feeling daft and worse,- ill informed. and out of the loop.There is also a growing feeling that the weekly Minister's Questions session  is not being handled well. Ed Miliband's performance is getting better and he is offsiding the unvarying Cameron Head Prefect approach. A more thoughful and statesmanlike approach would play well inside and outside parliament. As Prime Minister it is up to Cameron to make the change and he could claim it as a major shift in the way British politics is conducted. It's an opportunity which he should seize. Fun though schoolroom or university debating society knockabout has been, the public taste for it is fast diminishing. It's time to move on to genuine explaination of issues and options, adult analysis and still good but well informed debate.

- Labour is much more focused on creating an agenda of activity. It can afford to be as it doesn't have to actually do anything,- just say the words. It has deployed Lord Adonis to produce a  new industrial strategy and is working hard on other initiatives to polish its credentials and paper over its always disastrous enonomic performance in the hopes of looking like the cavalry coming over the hill in 2015 or earlier should the coalition really collapse. The party is even allowing Blair and Mandelson to sidle up to the warm places by the fire and make their inputs. This is clever in keeping them on side but will not be electorally popular if it becomes too obvious. The current Blair campaign for rehabilitation is conspicuous but the real public taste for more of the couple is,-or his coterie,-is doubtful.

- Labour is much cleverer in producing and repeating for ever dog whistle words and pharses which, even if only through sheer repetition, gain traction and come to be believed. They include; "Too fast, too soon" (debt reduction), "Out of touch" (class and wealth overtones) and recently "Shambles" (easily attatched to any foulup which can remotely be attributed to government). Partly due to their lack of experience is political streetfighting ,the Conservatives do not seem to recognise and far less counter these. No doubt Labour get some assistance in this area from the legacy unions who have used the tactic for generations.

- Obsorne's failure to explain and sell the budget has put the government on the back foot and make them appear inept throughout this session. There were good reasons for the actions taken and having decided to go with them Osborne should have stuck to his guns. Instead in the face of media,-led , or even manufactured,-onslaughts he and Cameron have made too many concessions and allowed themselves to be portrayed as weak and vacillating. If the party and had a good steeetwise Alistair Campbell lookalike they would have stood firm or never got into the public relations mess in the first place.

- There is a failure in the Conservative radar to anticipate and pick up problems and then to deal with them decisively  before they run out of control.  As result they tend to run into trouble far too often when a bit of thought or advice would have steered them away from it. Civil servants have not given them all the help they might have either. Nothing to do with "cuts" to the service, their pensions etc of course.

c) SO.... time for a summer starting with a good holiday to blow away feelings of exhaustion and all the rest and then a rethink of how to come out of the traps in October renewed, refreshed, with  a "Just do it" approach and some big, broad strokes instead of microfiddling, delay, enquiries and reassessments. The  last few month's feeling of the country wading through glutinous mud must be banished and a new one of energy and action created. If that doesn't happen the prospect of this being a one term government will begin to loom and for Cameron & Co it will be self , not Miliband, inflicted.   

A flood of a week........

Thanks to the wrong sort of jetstream- that's the summer version flowing to the south of the UK rather than the north,- the country and other parts of northern Europe have continued to enjoy a summer of records,- the wettest, greyest, coldest for many decades. The national spirit could certainly do with a lift but this definately isn't it. What's worse, the forecasters are beginning to make precautionary pessimistic noises about August ,-and that means the OLYMPICS (if we aren't breaching copyright by mentioning the word. If we are, sorry, convert it to "THE EVENT") .We have carefully built the main stadia, waiting areas, Q ing areas and almost everywhere ,apart from the big big 1,500 seater McDonalds, with no roofs. Never will so many unwillingly purchased big Macs with fries have been eaten as slowly as "guests" spin out the undercover time their purchases have bought.  Fair risk you might think, it's summer after all. We did the same for the British farewell part of the Hong Kong handover pre-ceremonies in July 1997 . This led to a right royal soaking for everyone from Prince Charles downwards and from that we discovered that massed umbrellas don't hack it. In fact , thanks to a fascinating dynamic, they guarantee not a steady drizzle down the back of the assembled necks and the front of assembled dresses but real all-penetrating deluges delivered at irregular but ever more frequent intervals. We don't learn though.  We can only recommend to our many guests that to deal with the situation they adopt that weary British expression " Mustn't grumble" as their Olympic experience, along with the McD's fries, descends into a soggy nightmare.

Other things though have been flitting across our field of view. The banking fraternity has been at it again,- or was in 2008. This time they stand accused of chummily rigging the Libor short term inter-bank interest rates and presumably not to the customers' advantage. Cosy emails are said to flitted across desks, thanking colleagues in other banks for their help and promising lots of free coffees , no doubt exchangeable for Bollingers, for the nod or wink. Chief baddy in the dock this time was Barclays and it's flamboyant leader Bob Diamond (see previous Twigaview). He went down to face a group of investigating MPs at Westminster, irritatingly patronised them all, but was certainly not about to say "Yup, I dunnit. I'll go". It was others shortly afterwards declared " You dunnit, you're going". The whole thing has caused much excitement in the Westminster village/fourth form, the highlight being an Osborne/Balls front bench slugfest. All entertaining stuff and enough to make ever polite Scandinavian  MPs and ever passive (Farage excepted )MEPs cringe for its lack of quiet finesse.     

Some sensible things have happened though. Defence Minister Philip Hammond's undertaking to slim the British Army down from around 120,000 to 80,000 makes good sense despite all the sensitivities about cap badges, past glories, victories, valiant defeats and proud but now antiquated divisions and loyalties. Some brutal cuts have been imposed in the Ministry Defence and not all of them wonderful or even immediately sensible. They have been necessary though to jolt the Ministry and the armed forces leadership (still some donkeys about just as a hundred years ago) , into new ways of doing things. The need for a new cost effectiveness and post WW 2 ways of fighting are obvious. Hi tech weaponry, sophisticated surveillance systems communications and pilotless aircraft are amongst the game changers .The structure and numbers deployed in more traditional roles have been slow to adapt so there is no alternative now but to force the pace and achieve a sharp focus on how to accomplish the tasks with less money, less manpower but higher technology and cleverer project definition and negotiating/contracting/purchasing skills to make sure that now a cent is wasted.

Over in the Home Office there have been some more bad days. Track has been lost of 120,000 people who should have left the UK and apparently haven't, though they may have. That sounds like an underestimate. There is no way of knowing. Why? Very simply , John Major's government abolished outbound immigration checks.  Every other country or group of countries (eg the EU Shengen area)  in the world counts non nationals in and then counts them out. This way they have a record of for how long all are admitted and, usually computer based, systems flag up who hasn't left when they should. The arm of the law goes after them and does the job. The UK though has no idea who has left and when. At one time there was talk of outbound checks being restored by 2012 but there is no sign of this and no additional manpower appears to have been recruited to do them.  The Conservatives created this situation. Labour the did nothing about it for 13 years and now the Conservatives again, hoisted by one size fits all public sector manpower cuts, appear unable to cut through the confusion and say " Just do it".

On the roads it has been revealed that our crumbling infrastructure is indeed crumbling. The knackered concrete of the M4 flyovers linking the west and Heathrow Airport with the centre of London has again been found to have worrying cracks and has immediately been closed again in the hopes that at least temporary repairs may be possible before, yes, the Olympics. The world's busiest international airport is thereby devoid of  its direct road route into town. The government is said to be looking for "shovel ready " infrastructure projects to help kickstart the economy. The west London overhead sections of the M4 need a complete rebuild and could even be widened at the same time.There are few similar projects available. Most take years of planning applications, enquiries and appeals before it's even possible to buy a shovel. Heres's a big one ready to go. It could probably get away without planning approvals as technically it is just a massive repair. Again an opportunity for "Just do it" . Chances? Such urgency is not British and doubtless a line of Sir Humphreys await with extended feet.

Elsewhere on the transport infrastructure scene, the largely Chiltern based anti-High Speed (railway) lobby have been delighted to hear that the passenger forcasts for HS 1 (the link between the Channel Tunnel and St Pancras ) were highly overoptimistic and the line's debt will increase by over £4 bn by 2020. They are very much in "Told you so mode" and back to shouting "There is no business case for HS2". Wrong- there is of course a very good one. Forget some of the inept calculations about the economics of working time saved en route. The simple facts are that we need to build for the 21st century, we have an expanding population and economy, rail track capacity to "the north" will be full by 2020, we need to separate long distance express services from short haul, slower moving commuter trains and even slower but also increasing freight trains , all of which get in each others' way. Adding tracks to additional lines means that there are huge , efficiency draining, complications so that solution which is often claimed to be easy is impractical. Lastly those who confuse this project with the need for additional Heathrow runways or a new airport  are mistaken. The two projects are entirely separate and neither removes the need for the other.

Those were some of the features of another rain sodden British summer week. There will be more in the next seven days.

EU- Dave gets tough.. or maybe not.

We said that it's dangerous whenever the UK's man Cameron gets amongst the Eurofolk amongst whom he would dearly love to feel at home,- one of the gang. Maybe it's because ex Etonians aren't used to being excluded from exclusive groups, but once near them he does seem to get excessively "I'm really one of you, one of the top table too" . He positively radiates puppyish excitement in the presence of Hollande (where did he come from all of a sudden?) , Merkels and even Barrosso. Heaven help us all.

The result was that he returned home in the early hours of Friday in a sort of "Peace in our time" mode, but aware that might not go down too well with a hundred or so of his MPs or even growing numbers of the electorate who feel that the principles of democracy warrant at least being asked about the future of their country or whether they still want to have one or in reality just be a county or province of Greater Europe. It is after all a rather fundamental question especially as it far from certain that all of Britain's potential future rulers are great Anglophiles or even like us at all. We may have bailed out a good number of them in the past century or so and fought several others but neither group appears to actually love us. No wonder something makes Dave and others excluded. Some, Nick , for example don't want to be excluded for a minute longer, whatever the illiberal cost ( it's amazing how illiberal most Liberals are when faced with anything but their own warm, fuzzy "hello sky, hello flowers " point of view.) and are prepared to go sign up to any internationalist pan-anything.

What we have seen and heard since Dave's return therefore is meant to be a sop to the Eurosceptics and those who would like to be asked what they think. He says we do need some changes to the EU relationship though how deep and far reaching is left for another time, and yes, there may be a day when we are better informed and more to be trusted to give the right answer in a referendum of some sort, but we aren't ready and adult enough to be asked just yet. Sorry children but your leaders just can't let you self harm.

Well intended though it is , this isn't going to satisfy or even kid anyone. Worse, it doesn't sound like the words of a tough leader prepared to fight to the death for what the vast majority wants (Superstate , no, Free trade Area ,- yes) at the expense of losing his place at the top table or in the prefects room of the European Academy. Worse for the Cameron and the Conservatives ot opens the way for the politically well organised Miliband to simply promise a referendum and after that all he can do is visibly play catchup. Just as Osborne was wrong footed by Balls urging the delay/dropping of the fuel tax rise the day before he announced it, the Tories will again have allowed Labour to proclaim "We said it first" if Dave does later match the promise,- as he would have to.

Again, the Tory machine is caught flying blind with its radar simply not identifying what lies before it and what opportunities each statement or action opens up or closes down for its opponents. Ther should be some final warnings and P45s floating around in Tory headquarters.

Footnote: Also conspicuous in Labour's Alexanders' criticism of Dave's non announcement was again the closing word "Shambles". As we noted before ,there has long been consistent dogwhistle word or one liner in almost anything any Labour speaker says about anything. It's very clever, lethal even and the Tories have no counter measure .