Like someone in the desert clawing their last few yards to towards the oasis , for David Cameron the end of the parliamentary term just can't come soon enough. It's been a hell of a half and it now being Sunday the temptation to join many others in bunking off early before the formal end of term on Tuesday must be very strong. Many of his colleagues may well already be on a sun kissed beach (Not here!)
Having since Easter and the budget had to make a series of reverses and in the past week delayed three things,-House of Lords reform, changes to and funding of old people's care and consultation on the future of London area airport capacity have made the Prime Minister look weak and indecisive. There has been tough talking,-eg on the EU and a referendum on it and on bankers' behaviours but perceived weakness in follow through. This inevitably raises the question; "Can he be trusted? Are we seeing his real agenda?"
How has once confident and energetic Cameron got into this mess? What are the underlying problems and why are they not being dealt with? What can he do about it and how?
There are a string of factors, some historic and some recent and current. Here are some:
a) HISTORIC:
-Until recently the Conservative Party had a number of grandees not far from the Prime Ministerial chair. They were a source of advice and guidance and powerful. In extremis they could pay a men (yes they were men) in white coats style visit to the Prime Minister and suggest tactfully or forceably that the time had come for a change. Although there are substantial influences and influencers still about, they do not now occupy the same position.
- Below these figures behind the curtains the demography of MPs was slanted towards the over 40 or 45 age groups. That has changed in all Parties as well as businesses over the last 15 or so years and the slant is now the other way. There are less scarred and battle hardened stalwarts who have seen it all before around to give advice and keep ministers away from cliff edges. The benefits are increased energy levels but they make the avoidance of cliff edges even more important.
- The Party was historically very strong on research, policy compilation and planning. From 1948 to 1980 it had its own Staff College at Swinton Castle near Masham in Yorkshire which ran ongoing seminars, policy weekends and other events covering everything from training of local agents, running election campaigns to high level ideology and policy. This was in addition to Central Office activity in London and participants ranged from university students to ministers. Amongst other things these sessions gave a constant feedback loop from all over Britain. They also gave party managers a good knowledge of MPs, part workers and activists which made it easier to further train and develop them and make sure that their individual skills were appropriately and usefully deployed. The specialist subject weekends in particular gave people personal informal access to ministers to the benefit of both. Altogether Swinton, the Party's third edition of a Staff College performed a number of very useful functions and strengthened the organisation in ways similar to those deployed by private sector businesses at the time. There is no clear successor to it. One result is this lack of people planning and another the absence of an ongoing coherent master plan to fit a clearly defined political philosophy.(see more on the latter below).
- At grass roots level, there were Working Mens' ( yes, men) Conservative Clubs and the like up and down the country. These were self supporting and brought in true working class members and others to whom alternatives such as the middle class dating agency,- The Young Conservatives,- did not appeal. These have now almost universally disappeared.
b) CURRENT:
-The top of the party leadership is very narrowly based with a strong Eton, Oxbridge and southern England contingent. It lacks reach to and empathy with much beyond north Oxfordshire. It also looks awkward when trying to look like a party of the people. In the home county shires the Conservative Party looks more like a social networking rather than a political organisation. It is unattractive to new joiners, particularly the young and less well off. Few gatherings of the faithful are outside Monday to Friday and it doesn't usually go out to find new and more diverse recruits. Many would find themselves uncomfortable if they did turn up.
- Cameron's handling of dissenters has become tetchy. He clearly feels they should be more sympathetic about his extremely difficult task of keeping the ever immature Lib Dems in the coalition but for their part they feel he is not being strong enough in tellingt them to get in line and accept that without this coalition they would not have a sniff of power. In retrospect it might have been better for the Conservatives to take power as a minority government in 2010, court and early defeat and then win a new General Election in Auntumn 2010 while any idea of a return by Labour would almost certainly have been enough to ensure a working majority.
- There is no central , passionately driven political philosophy from which all policies coherently flow. As result what is done looks patchy and too easily looks like reaction rather than action. The revived Old Labour is much clearer in its objectives, particularly now that its deep seated antipathy to the rich and successful has been reinforced by the behaviour of the easily pilloried bankers. This target has also usefully diverted attention from them fact that only a year ago the naughty step was shared by expenses -fiddling politicians of all parties. Ed Miliband and his union sponsors are heavily back into class warfare and believe it will deliver the desired majority in the next General Election.
- As result of its very tight inner core, the parliamentary party is feeling sore and not listened to. Ministers find themselves strongly supporting policy only to find that without consultation or even reasonable notice it suddenly changes beneath their feet and they are left looking and feeling daft and worse,- ill informed. and out of the loop.There is also a growing feeling that the weekly Minister's Questions session is not being handled well. Ed Miliband's performance is getting better and he is offsiding the unvarying Cameron Head Prefect approach. A more thoughful and statesmanlike approach would play well inside and outside parliament. As Prime Minister it is up to Cameron to make the change and he could claim it as a major shift in the way British politics is conducted. It's an opportunity which he should seize. Fun though schoolroom or university debating society knockabout has been, the public taste for it is fast diminishing. It's time to move on to genuine explaination of issues and options, adult analysis and still good but well informed debate.
- Labour is much more focused on creating an agenda of activity. It can afford to be as it doesn't have to actually do anything,- just say the words. It has deployed Lord Adonis to produce a new industrial strategy and is working hard on other initiatives to polish its credentials and paper over its always disastrous enonomic performance in the hopes of looking like the cavalry coming over the hill in 2015 or earlier should the coalition really collapse. The party is even allowing Blair and Mandelson to sidle up to the warm places by the fire and make their inputs. This is clever in keeping them on side but will not be electorally popular if it becomes too obvious. The current Blair campaign for rehabilitation is conspicuous but the real public taste for more of the couple is,-or his coterie,-is doubtful.
- Labour is much cleverer in producing and repeating for ever dog whistle words and pharses which, even if only through sheer repetition, gain traction and come to be believed. They include; "Too fast, too soon" (debt reduction), "Out of touch" (class and wealth overtones) and recently "Shambles" (easily attatched to any foulup which can remotely be attributed to government). Partly due to their lack of experience is political streetfighting ,the Conservatives do not seem to recognise and far less counter these. No doubt Labour get some assistance in this area from the legacy unions who have used the tactic for generations.
- Obsorne's failure to explain and sell the budget has put the government on the back foot and make them appear inept throughout this session. There were good reasons for the actions taken and having decided to go with them Osborne should have stuck to his guns. Instead in the face of media,-led , or even manufactured,-onslaughts he and Cameron have made too many concessions and allowed themselves to be portrayed as weak and vacillating. If the party and had a good steeetwise Alistair Campbell lookalike they would have stood firm or never got into the public relations mess in the first place.
- There is a failure in the Conservative radar to anticipate and pick up problems and then to deal with them decisively before they run out of control. As result they tend to run into trouble far too often when a bit of thought or advice would have steered them away from it. Civil servants have not given them all the help they might have either. Nothing to do with "cuts" to the service, their pensions etc of course.
c) SO.... time for a summer starting with a good holiday to blow away feelings of exhaustion and all the rest and then a rethink of how to come out of the traps in October renewed, refreshed, with a "Just do it" approach and some big, broad strokes instead of microfiddling, delay, enquiries and reassessments. The last few month's feeling of the country wading through glutinous mud must be banished and a new one of energy and action created. If that doesn't happen the prospect of this being a one term government will begin to loom and for Cameron & Co it will be self , not Miliband, inflicted.
Having since Easter and the budget had to make a series of reverses and in the past week delayed three things,-House of Lords reform, changes to and funding of old people's care and consultation on the future of London area airport capacity have made the Prime Minister look weak and indecisive. There has been tough talking,-eg on the EU and a referendum on it and on bankers' behaviours but perceived weakness in follow through. This inevitably raises the question; "Can he be trusted? Are we seeing his real agenda?"
How has once confident and energetic Cameron got into this mess? What are the underlying problems and why are they not being dealt with? What can he do about it and how?
There are a string of factors, some historic and some recent and current. Here are some:
a) HISTORIC:
-Until recently the Conservative Party had a number of grandees not far from the Prime Ministerial chair. They were a source of advice and guidance and powerful. In extremis they could pay a men (yes they were men) in white coats style visit to the Prime Minister and suggest tactfully or forceably that the time had come for a change. Although there are substantial influences and influencers still about, they do not now occupy the same position.
- Below these figures behind the curtains the demography of MPs was slanted towards the over 40 or 45 age groups. That has changed in all Parties as well as businesses over the last 15 or so years and the slant is now the other way. There are less scarred and battle hardened stalwarts who have seen it all before around to give advice and keep ministers away from cliff edges. The benefits are increased energy levels but they make the avoidance of cliff edges even more important.
- The Party was historically very strong on research, policy compilation and planning. From 1948 to 1980 it had its own Staff College at Swinton Castle near Masham in Yorkshire which ran ongoing seminars, policy weekends and other events covering everything from training of local agents, running election campaigns to high level ideology and policy. This was in addition to Central Office activity in London and participants ranged from university students to ministers. Amongst other things these sessions gave a constant feedback loop from all over Britain. They also gave party managers a good knowledge of MPs, part workers and activists which made it easier to further train and develop them and make sure that their individual skills were appropriately and usefully deployed. The specialist subject weekends in particular gave people personal informal access to ministers to the benefit of both. Altogether Swinton, the Party's third edition of a Staff College performed a number of very useful functions and strengthened the organisation in ways similar to those deployed by private sector businesses at the time. There is no clear successor to it. One result is this lack of people planning and another the absence of an ongoing coherent master plan to fit a clearly defined political philosophy.(see more on the latter below).
- At grass roots level, there were Working Mens' ( yes, men) Conservative Clubs and the like up and down the country. These were self supporting and brought in true working class members and others to whom alternatives such as the middle class dating agency,- The Young Conservatives,- did not appeal. These have now almost universally disappeared.
b) CURRENT:
-The top of the party leadership is very narrowly based with a strong Eton, Oxbridge and southern England contingent. It lacks reach to and empathy with much beyond north Oxfordshire. It also looks awkward when trying to look like a party of the people. In the home county shires the Conservative Party looks more like a social networking rather than a political organisation. It is unattractive to new joiners, particularly the young and less well off. Few gatherings of the faithful are outside Monday to Friday and it doesn't usually go out to find new and more diverse recruits. Many would find themselves uncomfortable if they did turn up.
- Cameron's handling of dissenters has become tetchy. He clearly feels they should be more sympathetic about his extremely difficult task of keeping the ever immature Lib Dems in the coalition but for their part they feel he is not being strong enough in tellingt them to get in line and accept that without this coalition they would not have a sniff of power. In retrospect it might have been better for the Conservatives to take power as a minority government in 2010, court and early defeat and then win a new General Election in Auntumn 2010 while any idea of a return by Labour would almost certainly have been enough to ensure a working majority.
- There is no central , passionately driven political philosophy from which all policies coherently flow. As result what is done looks patchy and too easily looks like reaction rather than action. The revived Old Labour is much clearer in its objectives, particularly now that its deep seated antipathy to the rich and successful has been reinforced by the behaviour of the easily pilloried bankers. This target has also usefully diverted attention from them fact that only a year ago the naughty step was shared by expenses -fiddling politicians of all parties. Ed Miliband and his union sponsors are heavily back into class warfare and believe it will deliver the desired majority in the next General Election.
- As result of its very tight inner core, the parliamentary party is feeling sore and not listened to. Ministers find themselves strongly supporting policy only to find that without consultation or even reasonable notice it suddenly changes beneath their feet and they are left looking and feeling daft and worse,- ill informed. and out of the loop.There is also a growing feeling that the weekly Minister's Questions session is not being handled well. Ed Miliband's performance is getting better and he is offsiding the unvarying Cameron Head Prefect approach. A more thoughful and statesmanlike approach would play well inside and outside parliament. As Prime Minister it is up to Cameron to make the change and he could claim it as a major shift in the way British politics is conducted. It's an opportunity which he should seize. Fun though schoolroom or university debating society knockabout has been, the public taste for it is fast diminishing. It's time to move on to genuine explaination of issues and options, adult analysis and still good but well informed debate.
- Labour is much more focused on creating an agenda of activity. It can afford to be as it doesn't have to actually do anything,- just say the words. It has deployed Lord Adonis to produce a new industrial strategy and is working hard on other initiatives to polish its credentials and paper over its always disastrous enonomic performance in the hopes of looking like the cavalry coming over the hill in 2015 or earlier should the coalition really collapse. The party is even allowing Blair and Mandelson to sidle up to the warm places by the fire and make their inputs. This is clever in keeping them on side but will not be electorally popular if it becomes too obvious. The current Blair campaign for rehabilitation is conspicuous but the real public taste for more of the couple is,-or his coterie,-is doubtful.
- Labour is much cleverer in producing and repeating for ever dog whistle words and pharses which, even if only through sheer repetition, gain traction and come to be believed. They include; "Too fast, too soon" (debt reduction), "Out of touch" (class and wealth overtones) and recently "Shambles" (easily attatched to any foulup which can remotely be attributed to government). Partly due to their lack of experience is political streetfighting ,the Conservatives do not seem to recognise and far less counter these. No doubt Labour get some assistance in this area from the legacy unions who have used the tactic for generations.
- Obsorne's failure to explain and sell the budget has put the government on the back foot and make them appear inept throughout this session. There were good reasons for the actions taken and having decided to go with them Osborne should have stuck to his guns. Instead in the face of media,-led , or even manufactured,-onslaughts he and Cameron have made too many concessions and allowed themselves to be portrayed as weak and vacillating. If the party and had a good steeetwise Alistair Campbell lookalike they would have stood firm or never got into the public relations mess in the first place.
- There is a failure in the Conservative radar to anticipate and pick up problems and then to deal with them decisively before they run out of control. As result they tend to run into trouble far too often when a bit of thought or advice would have steered them away from it. Civil servants have not given them all the help they might have either. Nothing to do with "cuts" to the service, their pensions etc of course.
c) SO.... time for a summer starting with a good holiday to blow away feelings of exhaustion and all the rest and then a rethink of how to come out of the traps in October renewed, refreshed, with a "Just do it" approach and some big, broad strokes instead of microfiddling, delay, enquiries and reassessments. The last few month's feeling of the country wading through glutinous mud must be banished and a new one of energy and action created. If that doesn't happen the prospect of this being a one term government will begin to loom and for Cameron & Co it will be self , not Miliband, inflicted.
