Monday, 11 May 2015

UK election dust settles.

The political drama of last Thursday night will go down as a classic. Weeks of "Too close to call" poll verdicts, the dismissal of any chance of either major party having a majority and speculation as to which cobbled together coalition would win the day were suddenly exploded at 10pm when the BBC/ITV exit poll result was announced. Its verdict that the Conservatives would get 316 seats, just ten short of a majority blew Ed Miliband's dreams of leading a government apart. The instant reaction was that such a number was impossible. It just had to be wrong. The pompous Paddy Ashdown promised to eat his hat if it were true. Labour's old spin master Alistair Campbell promised to consume his kilt. To Miliband it must have been a hammer blow beyond belief. His lifetime ambition, the one for which he had elbowed his brother,was blown apart in moments. Politics is a brutal game and this most cruel reverse will take some getting over. Nick Clegg would probably vouch for that too. Even after the first few results Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman was still parroting her pre-ordained script "It's a terrible night for the Tories". The early hours' realisation that 316 seats could drift to the magic 326 overall majority and possibly even higher took a while to sink in, especially on the BBCs forecast which seemed to lag a bit all night.

So where are we now? Miliband, Clegg and Farage whose party though not seat tally had done well all fell upon their swords. Miliband's and Cleggs were genuine but Farage's appears to have been a stage fake. Harriet Harman, now Labour's Acting Leader, still locked into her personal fog, is muttering that the defeat will take some while to understand and conclusions must not be rushed..

Ms Harman can be spared the agonising. The reason is simple. Miliband's Labour were selling a dated 1950s-70s product that people don't want to buy. It's no use implying that the voters got it wrong and will change their minds another time. The old fashioned class warfare themed offerings talking patronisingly about "ordinary people", "working people" excluded and even vilified the aspirational (most people) and the successful. Why do that?  It's a gift to the Conservatives.

Not only Labour need to rethink their product and positioning. The Tories , who they are, how they look and sound and what they appear to stand for are not loved in many quarters. They have a lot to do in the north , where fortunately George Osborne is already on the case, and other poorer areas . There's Scotland too of course.

Right now David Cameron is on the high of a honeymoon and doing the right things (well balanced cabinet) at the right pace (not frantic but swift and determined). Freed of the LibDem handcuffs and concrete blocks around its ankles, his party looks remarkably fresh and like hitting the ground running.

Nationally, outside the celebs and some misguided young who say they feel like emigrating (Please do), there is something of a national sigh of relief. People on zero hours contracts need not fear being out of a job in weeks, business isn't threatened with micro management or in the case of the railways partial renationalisation. Neither Nicola Sturgeon nor Len McClusky will be writing  the government's agenda and Number 10 won't be doing beer and sandwiches. The revitalised Prime Minister, unexpectedly handed this Get Out of Jail Free card, must lift his horizons and spread his circle beyond the previous narrow clique. Unencumbered by the coalition there is lot to achieve and a personal legacy to create. There is not much time. The May 2020 election is in play now.

Thursday, 7 May 2015

UK Election,- They're off.

Hopefully our travel weary Conservative and Labour leaders, veterans of countless "Don't meet the people" photo and other opportunities these last six weeks, will be getting a good night's sleep this afternoon.

They will need it if the whole unsatisfactory affair breaks down into "difficult" discussions about coalition and alliances. Expect plenty of acrimony before during and after.

Having inherited a disastrous financial mess from the broke Gordon Brown Labour government which included the socialists now bidding for another shot at doing it again and having got half way to solving it ,David Cameron should this afternoon be well on his way to victory.

But he isn't. The lacklustre campaign which didn't even to mention most of the coalition's many achievements, an unrehabilitated brand image and the the loss of the constituency boundary changes because he wouldn't go along with the LibDems' demands for even minor House of Lords reforms have left the man in the blue corner looking very vulnerable. He is rated by the electorate well ahead of Ed Miliband well ahead of his opponent  as likely being the better Prime Minister and being the more likely to reduce the current account defecit to zero. And yet he still struggles to get the breakthrough that he might expect.

Over in the red corner lie some of the reasons. Ever since the Brown years the well organised socialists have steadily plugged away at the soundbites of the class war. "For the many not the few", "Hard working working people" have been repeated ad infinitum . They have scarcely been  challenged and have taken a deep and toxic deep root. Mr Miliband and colleagues have relentlessly  harped on about "unfairness", portrayed successful people as "fat cats" and without scruple stoked up feelings about even the moderately well off being disadvantaged  exploited.  Everyone is a victim. "Austerity" is blamed for most ills even though the country has so far seen nothing like it.

The Conservatives never seemed to understand what the sound bites were all about so despite having a good story to tell never took the trouble to vigorously counter them. That's why we have the neck and neck race there should never have been.

Tonight many will be watching from behind the couch.

Footnote: Another key unenforced error was to ever agree to a referendum on Scottish independence. The idea should simply have been non negotiable under the Act of Union. Allowing it to happen gave a surge of oxygen to an otherwise fairly moribund issue and fired up the SNP  to keep raising it in the future. Inevitably in the end they will get a "Yes".