Election News: The Spinmasters' Challenge,- and Comeuppance.

A week today we will be heading for the polling booths. Except that in Twiga constituency we are effectivelydisenfranchised thanks to the sitting MP being the Commons Speaker, former Tory and now goodness knows what, John Bercow. By convention the major parties do not contest his seat so we are stuck with Mr Bercow, Nige's UKIP man and a Green. There's choice for you.

Between now and the big day anything could happen. First up is tonight's separate grillings of the three leaders on the institutionally far from neutral BBC. Already it is revealed that the audience numbers and proportions will be skewed to the left but what else did we expect? The third slot is the one to have as it carries the advantage of seeing and being able to respond to the other two. It should go to the incumbent Prime Minister. Will it?

Then there are the remaining days of campaigning. This has not been a good campaign. In fact the worst in recent memory, seemingly fought by competing fourth rather than sixth forms and even then mediawise only by their leaders. These precious days of democracy in action promise to be full of skulduggery, denial, betrayal (thankyou LibDems), last minute representations and misrepresentations,bribes,smears, downright lies and exhortations .That's if there are no nuclear cards up sleeves. Leaders found in or out of their underwear in nightclubs. That sort of thing. Probably unlikely with the main trio but who knows among the three other new era ones?

Including today there technically there are five weekdays when people might be listening and two weekend days when probably most aren't. Quite a challenge for the spin schedulers planning their climaxes. But it's worse than that.

It's a Bank Holiday weekend. From the end of today there will be more thought about the possible, likely or actual state of the M25/4/40/1, Virgin trains etc than about who is the least worst person to vote for. Then there are two days staring out at the rain ,wind or whatever and another back stressing about the state of Britain's transport arteries. Again not much thought about politics, and especially not much positive thought.

Then there is the big one. Some time between now and the election Dave, Ed , Nick and the rest are going to be swept off the headlines by "Royal Baby Arrives" , Royal Baby Supplements, "What name for Royal Baby" , "Royal Baby Named". How does a political Spinmaster cut through that? The only possible coup could be "Royal Baby named Dave/Ed/Nick" but that seems unlikely in the House of Windsor. Especially if it's a girl. In which case double wipeout if she's called Diana.

So what happens?  The visually and aurally drowned electorate who will likely say "Thank goodness for that. Now I can just go and vote for whoever I was going to vote for in the first place".

The Election- Unenforced errors and things.

Just when their man had given Conservative supporters three days of respite from feeling that he was sleepwalking towards defeat by coming out of his corner full of energy and bounce, Cameron  makes an utterly nonsensical unnecessary promise to turn his previous undertaking not to raise rates of income tax, National Insurance Contribution and VAT for the duration of the next Parliament into legislation.Back behind the sofa everyone.n

Why on earth do that? Is he saying that there are now two tiers of election promises,- those you will legislate not to renege on and those that you won't so can?

Why on earth also box yourself in when fixing the economy and getting the annual expenditure budget to break even is the job in hand and the one which the electorate already believes you are the best party to do? It just makes no sense.

Nor does the growing fashion for legislating to restrict the freedom of future governments but that and its constitutional implications is a whole story in itself.

Ed Miliband didn't do a lot better either with his nocturnal visit to Russell Brand's house for an interview. Although Mr Brand's recording studio is in his house, the view of anyone going to a house puts the visitor in the position of being a supplicant. Remember those pictures of Lord King and Sir Colin Marshall going to Richard Branson's house during the curious "Dirty Tricks"allegations? It wrong footed them completely although the case itself was never proven. Then there is the small matter of Mr Brand being seen as way out on the left wing. Ed doesn't have a problem with left wing support. He will get all those votes anyway. It is over on the right where he needs to seek additional votes and where this evening sortie will lose rather than gain any. So why go there,- especially at night which has even more negative PR perceptions? Where was his political and people nous? And where were his advisors?

For David Cameron the problem remains his basic lack of political feel and wordliness. It is not his fault but he has never lived in a world of real people, their hopes and fears and daily concerns. That would be OK if he had around him a wide circle of multi-background advisors or just people to talk to but, preferring the company of long standing school and university friends who he trusts too much,  he hasn't, and he visibly pays the price. He should also forget about  the faux "man of the people" footie stuff. Electors aren't idiots. Being posh isn't a no, no but pretending not to be is.

Ed Miliband is better schooled by Alistair Campbell and others.  During these past few weeks they have done a much better job on their client than Cameron's Lynton Crosby. despite their efforts, Take away the facade and Ed is no more a man of the people than his rival. He has though lived among some of the north London variety in his school days something which is an enormous benefit at times like these. Despite that, Northerners, Scots, Welsh, Northern Irelanders, Cornish, non London southerners and other fringe tribes are probably a bit of a mystery.

The man who has avoided these slips, talks human and can talk easily to anyone is the unfortunate Nick Clegg. Unfortunate? Yes. If he can't find a bigger issue to shout about this final week than free school meals he isn't going to set the campaign alight.

The ladies meanwhile continue to steer a slip-free course and do well, though two of them within limitations. The seemingly unlimited one, Nicola Sturgeon sweeps on in Scotland. Her biggest risk is that she might overcook it and some of the 55% who voted "No" in last September's independence referendum suddenly wake up as to what she is all about and scuttle back to Labour. That's the party whose decades of arrogant neglect of Scottish voters real interests strengthened calls for "independence" in the first place. Over in Wales, Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood is at least now known outside her home province but her task against overwhelming historic support for Labour who have done Wales few favours is almost impossible. Down among the Greens, once past her initial disastrous TV performance, leader Natalie Bennett did well enough in the BBC's 5 way non-debate but hasn't appeared much since. Their current sole MP Caroline Lucas might be a better front for the party but for those who do not want to live in caves, walk to work (if there is any) and live in poverty, whoever is leader doesn't have much of an agenda to sell.

A week today will be the last day of campaigning. That at least is a relief. It could save many TV screens. More before that though...

UK Election,-10 Days to get Serious.

With the interminable campaigns finally about to go into their last week, it's time for the Conservatives to get a grip if they are to finish up at all well.

They have a good story of the last 5 years to to tell.  They are way ahead in perceptions of their ability to run the economy. They are up against the most uncharasmatic and ineffective Leader of the Opposition in living memory .They should be walking towards victory and riding high in the polls. But they aren't.

Why not?

First there is the Leader, David Cameron a man immensely at ease with himself  and his coterie of close friends mainly acquired at school and university. Given a pedestal upon which to stand he is undoubtedly a charming and courteous host, especially on his metro London or Cotswold home turf. Away from those things he does not look not at home at all, either among "ordinary" people in Britain or the non British political communities abroad. He relishes the red carpet stuff and positively glows when with the Angelas, Obamas and other top players, wearing a strange sort of  "Look who I'm with" sort of stifled smug grin. Blair was the same, reaching the peak of hubris when he stood side by side with George Bush, thumbs thrust down his jeans, having just promised him he would do whatever was required in Iraq.

Both major party's campaigns have been dreadful, stage managed "Don't meet the people but look as if you do" affairs. Lecturn based speeches to almost empty, but thanks to the camera's, full looking halls have been the norm. Nurses, teachers, schoolchildren, apprentices, or whoever is the theme of the day have been wheeled out to form backdrops on pain of death to look cheerful and make no inappropriate gestures. It has been a total farce.No knockabout town hall hustings. No questions. No answers. Cameron and Miliband have been swept straight from their lecturns into their Bentleys or battlebuses and driven off at speed. This has allowed the well tutored Miliband to grow into looking like a possible Prime Minister while Cameron, lacking the visible passion and energy, has ever so gently shrunk. Miliband has gone for every media opportunity while Cameron seems to have chillaxed and avoided anything remotely risky.

Despite the voters known dislike for negative campaigns, Cameron has veered off the positive messages about the economy into unnecessary and un-Prime Ministerial personal attacks on both Miliband and Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon. Having orginally stood where he was told by advisor Lynton Crosby on the economy, Cameron has more and more shown his lack of feel for the game by swerving all over the road in trying to respond to every special offer by the other parties. He has inexplicably countered with unnecessary and unaffordable ones of his own. Why after five years of fiscal prudence risk it all by throwing money around in the last four weeks? It makes no sense.

As result right now Conservative voters feel that this election might be slipping away from them. The BBC of course does all it can to move this impression along in all sorts of subtle and less subtle ways but there does seem to be a drift. With just a few more days to go, the Conservative leadership  must  now re-energise the Prime Minister, get him out there shaking some real hands looking like he's really enjoying it rather than reaching for the hand sanitiser and shouting the economic success  theme from the rooftops. No harm in reminding people where he has brought it all from these last five years , what a wreck it was and who caused it but from that baseline he has to break out into the "We are hungry to finish the job"  theme. If he doesn't what follows could be messy, -and involve a lot more chillaxing for him. His colleagues and voters won't thank him for that. He may be able to afford it but they and the country can't.

UK Election .The TV "debate". The winner was.....

Nearly a week on from the BBC 5 sided " debate" between the  opposition contenders, the night is almost forgotten. It was significant though as one more input the voter's decision making.

On the surface it seems to have made not a jot of difference in the polls, so David Cameron may well be congratulating himself on a night better spent elsewhere. Below the surface though he would be mistaken.

Ed Miliband's acceptability to the electorate has been creeping slowly but surely upwards.Carefully tutored, he has been looking more self assured, his suits snappier, and his speaking more passionate.He is looking like a man with a mission and he is one . People's perceptions are shifting from "No way could he be Prime Minister" to "Maybe, just maybe". That is real progress. In such a tight contest every little counts. He can see flashing before him the prospect of leading the most left wing government since the 1940s . His Marxist father would have been proud.

In this debate Miliband stood on the left wing while Nigel Farage stood on the right, a little isolated , rather unloved and rarely listened to by the predominantly left leaning audience. In contrast the Labour leader was able to adopt the relaxed pose of the bull in the field to whom the three ladies of SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens generally addressed their comments in a sort of interview for the position of best coalition partner. The most significant moment of the evening came right at the end after all the talking. First the three ladies went into a strange group hug. Then, one by one they went to shake Miliband's hand as if in an act of obeissance . He accepted the hands graciously. What he was thinking we can only guess at. Was that a flicker of condescension on his lips?  Nigel was left alone to shrug and go off to the pub.

In the pub, or wherever he did go, Farage must have shaken his head a little. He alone had underlined that the economy isn't yet fixed and the control of national policy exercised by the EU is excessive but nobody was listening. The studio audience,- whose bias he challenged,- was far happier with shouts of no more austerity (as if we've really seen half of what's necessary), and promises of more borrowing ,endlessly taxing "the rich" and other bogey people who already pay the bulk of the nation's taxes, create the jobs but do so, shock, horror for profit.The Welsh lady had even said,- presumably to Miliband,- "Give us £1.5 billion a year and we won't have to do austerity" and not a murmur of disapproval was heard.

The case for the right, the listing of the coalition's many achievements went unstated and there was no counterweight to Miliband's dominance of the proceedings. Cameron would have had clear field of fire and been able to challenge the myths being put about. We must assume that he had been advised by Crosby not to take part because he sometimes isn't quick enough on his feet to deal with the unexpected and there was the danger of him being led into a costly trap. It turned out to be a mistake and he should have seen that coming.

Many would argue that Nicola Sturgeon's performance was the evening's highlight. As a speaker and leader she is far ahead of the Westminster metro elite duo. She is also on a  mission,- and as far as the integrity of the UK is concerned not a good one. South of the border most don't know in any detail what she's really all about but they like her style, the fact that she comes across as a plain speaking, decisive human. That's a far cry from the Cameron and Miliband Oxbridge retinues. Glasgow University Union ("Is there a university in Glasgow?" they might ask) has for decades been the best training ground for aspirant politicians. Its annual five full scale parliamentary debates have no rivals in the UK. They do real down to earth political cut and thrust. That is where she learned her trade. That's why she is making mincemeat of Labour in Scotland in this national UK election. She may not in next year's Scottish Parliament elections but that is a story we will come back to.

Powerful though Ms Sturgeon was in this debate, it didn't really matter.The real winner was Ed Miliband. That final lineup of the three ladies to shake his hand said it all.  His cred was just a little  higher and the Conservative case against him a little more dented. That's especially true among women voters who had already marked him up a notch or two after the previous week's revelations that he had had a bit of a way with women whilst at university. Over to you David Cameron,- and please don't come up with a mistress or two of the hounds.

Two weeks to go..............

Another three and a half weeks.

On and on goes the UK's General Election excuse for a campaign. None of those old fashioned town hall meetings to out candidates on the spot and in some cases (Labour notably) to be evicted if too challenging. No political PR person could possibly allow such hazardous things and God forbid that the unwashed should be allowed to get anywhere near the precious objects surrounded by a phalanx of security people movig at as high a speed as possible. Walkabouts are nearly all stage managed as are interminable meetings requiring the backdrop of factories (ideally in high vis jackets and hard hats), building sites (ditto) or schools or (hard pressed or smiling depending on party) hospitals.

This week sees the publication of manifestos. Labour go first on Monday,then the Tories and then on through the ranks. These are mean to explain the philosophy, beliefs, core values and priorities of the partys and then of course all the actual policies flow simply and logically from these, giving the voters clear and honest choices.

Some hope.

 Are we going to see Labour up front with "We believe that we should return to the socialism of the 1950s, that the government will make most decisions as to what the people get (schools, hospitals), spend whatever the unions dictate and ensure that individual effort, risk taking and private enterprise receive as few rewards as possible. We really are only interested in what we think used to be the working class,-we call them "working people,-" who should be treated and rewarded "fairly",- ie be told what to do and be taxed as heavily as possible if they get ideas above their station. Wealth , power and choice really are only for the Party elite,- as you electorate would of course wish.

Are the Tories going to say "We've rather lost our way actually. We don't have a philosophy but we are quite nice chaps and unlike most of the others we don't hate anyone. We'd like to build a lot more houses ,but not where we live. We didn't get to grips with the current account defeceit, rethink and redesign what the state is all about and really drive through all the reforms we should have done straight out of the traps in 2010 but then we don't have business people who've ever actually run anything or lived in the real world so it's been a steep learning curve. There are a lot of things we don't understand like the difference between immigrants we need, students who shouldn't be regarded as immigrants at all and people we don't need at all. We think we've more or less sussed it all though so give us another go. After all the other lot brought us to the edge of every imaginable abyss so you'd be wasting your time with them. Think Gordon Brown reborn".

Then there are the Lib Dems. As in 2010 Nick has actually fought a good campaign but he has been drowned out by most others so remains looking rather forlorn. Is he going to carry on saying "We are the middle way"? We offer a bit of this and a bit of that. More tax from seemingly endless supply of "the rich", bankers, non doms and any other figures of public hate who pay the bulk of Britain's taxes anyway. He could hold some ground but certainly not gain any.

UKIP, Greens, SNP we will skip over and leave for another time.

Our verdict on the past week? Cameron is flagging a bit but probably doesn't know why. Where would he get real feedback if he doesn't seem to have any network among real people? Slagging Miliband off simply lifts his opponent's stature. So did a press report that Ed may have been a bit of a lad back in uni days, knocking them over with his conversations about economics and so on. For some reason the female vote always seems to perk up at stories of falling trousers, even if years old. Remember John Major? The gut feel on Miliband is that he actually did quite well. His suits and features look better pressed and he doesn't look quite as much as if he needs a day off as Cameron who just isn't coming off the battlebus bouncing. Ed's big presentational plus is that he looks and sounds like a man with a mission and political conviction . And he is one,- devastatingly awful though the path he wishes to follow may be. Nick Clegg keeps beavering away and could come up with a better result (losing less seats) than has been assumed. Over the border Nicola Sturgeon continues to forge ahead . She looks on track to almost wipe out Labour's Westminster seats but she does risk overdoing it to the extent that some voters fear giving her too much power and scuttle back to the old old rustbucket Labour that has served Scotland so badly for decades.

More next week if you or we can stand it. Meanwhile the feeling in much of the south appears to be "Please let it all be over soon".