On the face of it, the US removal of the Pakistan Taliban's leader via a drone attack looks like a masterpiece of bad timing, coming as it did just as seven week old contacts about possible peace talks between the Pakistan Government and the Taliban were said to be making some tentative progress. Leading government officials and an assortment of Taliban leaders were due to meet in the north tomorrow.
On timing, the Americans, although at times diplomatically clumsy, don't make mistakes that big. This looks in all respects like a carefully considered tactical act based on strategic policy. The betting has to be that it was specifically aimed to derail the talks as the US feared possible aspects of or concessions granted in any eventual agreements. In other words the discussions looked dangerous and not all the players could be trusted not to go for a "Peace in our time" settlement.
The Taliban had already been already talking as if from a position of strength about the outcome depending on the Pakistan Government's willingness to agree to their "conditions". This was the thin edge of the wedge. Any deal would inevitably have involved officially recognising, Taliban influence, in however small a way initially, in a country which , away from its mountainous rural areas substantially rejects its extremist philosophy and fears its murderous activity. It is very likely that the US is simply saying "Enough is enough" and telling the Pakistan Government not to go there. Any deal would have to involve the Taliban dropping both its violence and moderating its stance on human rights, especially those of women or people who did not agree with it.
Apart from these obvious immediate issues of mass brutality and repression of opposition and religious moderates, the even greater and long term fear in the west has to be that any emergence of the Taliban on the Pakistan political stage would take it closer to its eventual aim of controlling the country. The nightmare end scenario then becomes the Taliban eventually taking over Pakistan. The prospect of the Taliban in control of a nuclear power is too frightening to contemplate.
No mistake then, this had in the last few weeks become a "Must do".
On timing, the Americans, although at times diplomatically clumsy, don't make mistakes that big. This looks in all respects like a carefully considered tactical act based on strategic policy. The betting has to be that it was specifically aimed to derail the talks as the US feared possible aspects of or concessions granted in any eventual agreements. In other words the discussions looked dangerous and not all the players could be trusted not to go for a "Peace in our time" settlement.
The Taliban had already been already talking as if from a position of strength about the outcome depending on the Pakistan Government's willingness to agree to their "conditions". This was the thin edge of the wedge. Any deal would inevitably have involved officially recognising, Taliban influence, in however small a way initially, in a country which , away from its mountainous rural areas substantially rejects its extremist philosophy and fears its murderous activity. It is very likely that the US is simply saying "Enough is enough" and telling the Pakistan Government not to go there. Any deal would have to involve the Taliban dropping both its violence and moderating its stance on human rights, especially those of women or people who did not agree with it.
Apart from these obvious immediate issues of mass brutality and repression of opposition and religious moderates, the even greater and long term fear in the west has to be that any emergence of the Taliban on the Pakistan political stage would take it closer to its eventual aim of controlling the country. The nightmare end scenario then becomes the Taliban eventually taking over Pakistan. The prospect of the Taliban in control of a nuclear power is too frightening to contemplate.
No mistake then, this had in the last few weeks become a "Must do".
