UK under threat- Official. The Met Office says so. But there is right Royal good news too.

Life in Britain this summer is ever on a meterorological knifedge.

Thank goodness for Government warnings, blue, green red, yellow, amber,- more colours on offfer than in an Italian ice cream shop. Their meanings range from " Go outside and flee (Floods like you've never seen before are on the way) ,It is safe to go outside (It will be cloudy, and dull but not rain much ,-ie standard UK) to " On no account go outside" (It will be warm and sunny). Once upon a time weather forecasts were reliably factual, to be interpreted by the individual brains of "ordinary people" (Milibandspeak for "dim plebs"). Most seemed to survive to more or less the going average lifespan for their age group . Could we now though get by without the Gummnt telling us what to do?

Probably inspired by the US 24 hour a day weather channels and their breathlessly excited pronouncements of "Have we got a storm for you", followed by "Wow, that one went away",our weather media has been trying to sex up its act. Gone are the boring old lags who knew their trade professionally and  give or take the odd hurricane,were normally pretty much right. When they were wrong it didn't matter too much because nobody regarded it as much more than a weighted bet anyway. In have come generally much better looking presenters .Although their knowledge of the subject  may be a little sketchy and their role is to point at a map and trot out what a script or their earpiece says, they do look nice.

So far we have survived Summer 2013 and just have August to get through until shock horror forecasts of the direst of winters start coming thick and fast. Only the thick and slow should pay too much attention.

While we have all been glued to the 24 hour channels to see how imminent is our doom, we have had the alternative breathless reporting from outside a hospital,outside a palace and inside a few studios. The subject?  Goings on, -and not,- in the unfolding story of the royal pregnancy, royal birth, royal naming, royal breakfast,lunch, tea , room. Some news channel crews had been camped outside this hospital for three weeks. There are some terrible jobs in this world. The moment that the Duchess went into the hospital triggered the most entertaining marathon of pass the parcel commentating between the lead correspondents standing outside the hospital ("Nothing happening here Bill "), the colleague standing outside "Palace" ("Nothing happening here Bill") back to the anchor ("Nothing happening here but we haven't got anything else covered so back to you outside the hospital"). For sheer vacuousness it was a 48 hour  classic.

To get away from Hospital, Palace and Studio one had to switch to Al Jazeera, the channel which now far outperforms our domestic offerings for real global news coverage. Way back in the 1970s the Reuter teletype news drops in lobbies around the world started displacing dear old Auntie. Those have now given way to the Doha and even a Russia based 24 hour TV alternatives. BBC World still dominates much of the non American English speaking world's radio news listening but its long established left of centre stance has always clouded its objectivity.Unfortunately most of non coastal America has little interest in much beyond its borders even if it knows there is anything out there.

The good thing is that the British come out of the week without having to worry about at least the next 80 or so years of royal succession and we won't have to further discuss the merits of a Queen during most of our lifetimes. Pity really. This one has done very well despite having seemingly been in a quick-frozen time warp since the day of her accession in 1952. In fact, aided by the always entertaining Duke, she seems to do better by the day. Her workload is incredible for an 87 year old even if it is achieved with a substantial backup team covering almost all aspects of her life. Whether people like the idea of a monarchy or not they have to admit that her and the Duke's work ethic and devotion to duty regardless of discomfort (Remember the boat procession up the Thames during last year's Jubilee procession?) is an outstanding role model for anyone of any age anywhere in the world.

We have more to look forward to this summer. Our post Olympic sporting prowess has continued on a roll. Often capable of losing anything right up the the last (legal) kick, ball, or yard, we have beaten the Ozzies on the rugby pitch and look as if we could do the same in cricket. Thanks to the Scottish lad becoming British we have won Wimbledon and thanks to the Kenyan one also becoming British we have also triumped in the Tour de France. We will be able to go into the autumn and winter with sporting heads held high..... Then there is the England football team and remainder of the European Cup qualifiers. Oh dear.  

UK Transport policies in the slow lane? No.

Regrettably not.

Almost all transport plans and developments are not in any lane. 

They are stuck in the car park.

A few lesser ones , mainly on the railways are under way, but many haven't even got to the decision making stage or, beyond that , starting the planning process. They are firmly in the car park and not even at the exit.

Why?

Scene: The Prime Minster's office:

Sir Howard Davies (Leader of the Airports Commission, due to make its recommendations on London capacity in 2015 despite a list of options being published this year):

"We've got the submissions from Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted Sir. We've also got our own work on alternatives like White Waltham , Haddenham and a few others ".(Why is Roskill 1973- recommmended Wing/Cublington never mentioned?). "We could put the whole lot together and make our recommendations this year if you like".

PM: "What is there about Not Before The 2015 General Election that you don't understand ? Once that's out of the way we can do anything we like, -and if we can't Labour will do it anyway. They were on the brink of going ahead at Heathrow but we put a stop to that. Think of that, we would be doing something -the diggers would be in right now. Terrible. Go away and waste some more time like you were told to do".

           "Sorry sir. My mistake, See you,-or someone,- in 2015."

Meanwhile over at HS 2, Britain's planned second domestic high speed railway line, a hybrid bill to enable building to start needs to start its journey through parliament this autumn if it is to be passed in the lifetime of this government.If it isn't completed by May 2015 it will have to start again. At the moment there is no sign of the required urgency. In the meantime the very well planned and orchestrated opposition lobby centred in the Chilterns ,through which all but 3.1 of  its 12.4 mile passage will be in expensive tunnels or cuttings, is steadily ploughing ahead and building opposition into a sort of dinner party fashion amongst public figures despite its objectives being primarily parochial even when wrapped in a respectable cover of national interest . The need for more track and line capacity is immediate and there are no real options . 

Processes for transport projects are glacial and most are opposed and fought all the way. Even minor schemes face up to six years of planning processes, hearings, appeals and judicial reviews .Talk of building infrastructure and capacity for future generations cuts little ice in the Treasury or amongst opponents.

Very little other than filling in about £10 bn worth of potholes on the roads is immediately shovel ready . Even there money is squandered by botch filling rather than proper lasting repairs. Africa learned pothole repairing techology decades ago. First world UK doesn't yet seem to understand it.

As for major road strategy and development, a major programme of improvements has been announced . Much of it is along the routes Airnthere outlined on 1st July. It would focus more on upgrading single carriageway A roads to near motorway dual carriageway standards than building new motorways but it would do great things for the areas concerned. "Not so fast" retort the "Say No To.." groups. Any improvement anywhere near to a national park, the Lake District, the Norfolk Broads, the South Downs or "area of outstanding natural beauty" is claimed to be "devastating" it even if it just goes around the edges as do all of the projects concerned .The A595 doesn't cut through the lakes . It improves access to them but goes around the  struggling Cumbrian Coast . The A47 from Acle to Yarmouth  is already there , improves access to some of the broads country and especially to run down, drab Yarmouth . It doesn't wreck the Broads . Similarly the A27/259  runs to the north of the South Downs, improves access to them and benefits east-west coastal traffic, access to the Channel tunnel and gives a string of towns an economic boost.  It does nothing to the downs themselves. Unblocking the bottleneck to going to depressed Hastings by dualling its lst 20 miles is claimed to be destroying the Weald and ancient woodlands of Kent and Sussex. It would do nothing of the sort but would boost employment in Hastings. And so it goes on nationwide.  These and other depressed areas need all the help they can get to boost their economies, remove barriers to business and trade and to create large numbers of new jobs.  Many feet are though out to trip them up.

Unfortunately for the UK ,the opposing well heeled "Say no To.." groups, the tortuous planning processes and general inertia and lack of courage in Whitehall and Parliament all conspire to make even the opening of a village bypass a very long process. As result,despite some bold declarations of intent, promising billions to be spent ,not a lot of the big things are actually  happening. Fortunately a few smaller ones are. For  that we can thank pure dogged determination or ,occasionally, stealth. The biggest missing ingredients are political courage and Whitehall's abilty to do anything quickly and simply. It's just not part of the culture.

It's end of term!- and a look ahead.

Yes, Parliament broke up for the summer hols last Friday . Those MPs who weren't already off "working from home", or somebody else's home,departed for the 6 week break before they return to tidy up unfinished business before starting again for real in October. That's just in time for Christmas. The new political season marks the beginning of 18 months countdown to the May 2015 General Election . Things could get a bit fractious. In 2010, despite the coalition with the Lib Dems, David Cameron quickly moved away any ideas of a more mature, cooperative type of parliamentary politics. This was a serious missed opportunity .One result of that is that the approach to the election is more likely to be bitter and destructive trench warfare with ground savagely fought over inch by inch  and much Question Time shouting rather than the period of calm and just getting things done that many of the electorate would prefer (and which would win Cameron votes). The 2015 result is anybody's guess. Polling figures generally point to a Labour win, possibly with a reasonable overall majority but other indications question that. Few see Ed Miliband as a credible Prime Minister and while there is no love for Cameron he emerges as the better of the two from that respect. Clegg doesn't feature as anything but a possible and irritating partner of either party in a new coalition. Neither wants him or the LibDems but may have to put up with them to achieve an overall majority.

Among  many "Too difficult" items left strewn around the table as the boys and girls headed gleefully to the exits were Syria, Egypt (What to do? Answer,-which should appeal,-nothing), HS 2 (Answer,- stop dithering and letting its opponents have a ball ,- go build it), London airport runways (Answer- build 2 more where they need to be-Heathrow). The overall advice to Mr Cameron would be to get a grip on loose ends, state the Government's position clearly and firmly and LEAD. On Syria this is difficult. The sensible advice of "Sit this one out" seems to have been heeded, but now we are told that Mrs C is pushing the the idea of more involvement across the kitchen supper table at Number 10. We wait to see what the summer's sunlounger talk will produce.

Away from our shores BP continues to get a pasting from the lawyers and others in the USA. Encouraged by a naive, if well meaning,open cheque book approach ,it seems that an almost endless queue of claimants is lining up by the day. No doubt some are genuine but.... BP are alarmed that the administration of the scheme, entrusted to "independent" American lawyers feels like it's getting out of hand. Their appeal to a US Court to get some of the alleged deficiencies investigated and sorted has been rejected. Well, what a surprise. Did they, as a foreign company,ever expect to win that one? What if they have to sell some of their assets to pay for all this compensation,- who would buy? Could it just be that they would be snapped up by US rivals at distress sale prices ? If it came to that one could only hope that just desserts were handed out by late and succesful bids from Russia, China or any of those countries who don't have a special relationship with the USA.

The Gulf of Mexico folk aren't the only ones lining up hopefully for compensation for alleged past sins by perfidious Albion. Fair enough we have been and remain pretty perfidious .We have had our moments of deviousness and still do, but that doesn't mean we stand guilty of all accusations at all times since the beginning of time. Just how far back is it reasonable and sensible to go back with recriminations, demands for compensation,or apologies? The British Government has paid up for alleged atrocities against the Mau Mau, probably more to avoid an even longer and more drawn out process  involving much time and large payments to lawyers. Flushed with that success one Kenyan tribe is considering claims for alleged misdeeeds in the 1890s. (The same Mau Mau "veterans" have yet to offer compensation to the large numbers of fellow Kenyans they tortured or killed). Don't we have something on the Romans, Danes, French and others who at various times in history laid waste to or seized much of our property, at the same time as vastly increasing our gene pool?

Many current conflicts could be avoided if all concerned agreed to draw a line under the past, especially the past of more than 5 years ago and agreed simply that "Things happened. Now though is the time to get over it, move on and not be burdened with the baggage of centuries.  The world would be a better place overnight."

That though is unlikely to happen. Many countries, racial groups, tribes , towns and even villages have rivalries, bitterness and hatred going back centuries .There are factions so devoted to settling old scores and perpetuating divisions that little else dominates their lives or gives them more satisfaction. Regrettably and contrary to all that any divine being or entity would surely want, many of these stem from the mainstream religions, their hieracrchies, and the conflict and intolerance between them as they fight for dominance on the one hand or survival on the other.

Another activity which holds back a better future is the constant glorification of past victories. This is a particularly British favourite. We do the ceremonials superbly, truly better than anyone else. The occasional one or two are fine but one fears for the arrival of 2014 . There will then be four years of it being a hundred years since every battle fought in World War 1. Are we going to relive it day by day to ensure that nobody's memory is left out?  If so ,once that's over it's not too long to wait until we can do the same with World War 2. The best way we can show our respect for past combatants of all sides is to use our skills , emotions and energies concentrating positively on the future.It was the future not the present that they were fighting for. That must have been their only source of inspiration or comfort as they faced often appalling conditions, day in and day out . They had no idea if they would see another day. They walked out to fighters, bombers, other aircraft, ships or ground combats knowing that not all of them would return. Parents, children, loved ones lived each day on the edge of an emotional nightmare. In WW 2 urban civilians knew that they and their families could be obliterated at any time. That's how they lived ,-and got on with their lives each day. The future is their memorial,not the past. One rock we should remember though is that they did what needed to be done regardless of danger or discomfort. The recent history of that culture is not so good.

(Unapologetic) Corporate Yuckspeak of the week...

The Post Office will make further improvement in this area and take better account of individual circumstances going forward"

-Paula Vennells, CEO, Post Office talking about changes to Post Office procedures/malfunctions of its computer system after they have been confirmed as a possible cause of eroneous statements of underpayments by sub postmasters which have cost some tens of thousands of pounds and even imprisonment.

Egypt,- Morsi on the brink.

Egyptian President Modammed Morsi and his country stands on the brink of disaster as result of his own intransigence and refusal to accept political realities. For a man of his standing and assumed intelligence this is a situation he should never have got into.

He and his party won the June 2012 Election, beating his opponent, Ahmed Shafik, by 51.7% to 48.3%, a sliver of a victory. Most would understand that this gave him mandate to govern almost as a neutral, holding the balance between the two parties rather than to seek to dominate by visibly pushing the interests and policies of his own Islamic Brotherhood's interests over those of the opposition. Unfortunately he has chosen not to. He has thereby compromised Egypt's fragile nascent democracy and risked anything up to and including civil war amongst its citizens. The degree of intolerance he has thus demonstrated is breathtaking and may well lead to the death of many Egyptians.

What the army now does and how it does it will now be crucial, but Morsi will stand responsible for having brought on their intervention. One can only hope for a sudden change of direction away from obstinate confrontation to one of reconciliation. Doing an about turn at the last minute is better than never doing it at all,- but there is a risk that having brought things to this pass it may already be too late for Mr Morsi,- and Egypt. Particularly by moving away from Egypt' secular based and tolerant politics and promoting his more religion based constitutional reforms, Morsi has sharply polarised rather than united his country. The Middle East needs more healing, not less. Egypt needs stability both for its people and its economy of which international foreign currency bearing tourism is a vital part and employer.

Iran in particular will be looking to see what opportunities for misbehavior and mischief  the Egyptian situation now presents. They are already busy in the destruction of Syria and have to be looking at opportunities to fan Turkey's moves away from Ataturk's outstandingly successful secularism. The last thing they need is encouragement to meddle in Egypt as well.

Go in peace.

Around the world in 80 seconds,- A timesaving snapshot of both UK domestic and global affairs.(Actually there are more than two).

First the non global:

All quiet on the UK home front. Big issues and courage to the fore. As we mentioned last week ,Dave won't say whether or not he would feed GM modified food eg "Gummerburgers" to his family. Now Nick, pale faced and looking his normal unhealthy self, says he has never knowingly done so. Pity. It might have brought some colour to his cheeks, if not his always ever-so-good politics.

Since then Dave been on tne international stomp, first to Afghanistan and then to the democratic state of Khazakstan. One always worries a bit about countries whose armies goose step and wear those massive Soviet/North Korean style hats designed to make small people look bigger and more menacing. Oddly none of them are paragons of democratic virtue. Funny that. In Afghanistan he said it might have been a good idea to talk to the Taliban ten years ago. Spot on,- at last. It's a pity though that his brief awayadays in both countries will not have allowed him time off for a bit of a breather and the opportunity to get just the slightest feel for what these countries and life in them might really be like.Sadly none of Britain's tender-hefted politicians seem to go on holiday or walkabout outside Europe. Maybe they just don't realise that sweeping along in a escorted bullet proof air conditioned limos one doesn't get much of a feel of even minor normal hassles like immigration desks and people in arrivals claiming to be your driver. It's a pity as even in the local Starbucks lookalike they might learn more than they do at the ritual state refreshments over the best clarets or Arabian coffees.

George's,- or is it Jeffrey's,- speech on how Britain is going to spend its borrowed money over the next few years contained little that wasn't reheated old stuff . Only the attempts at rhetoric, some of it excruciating and transparently bad, were new material. No surprises or excitement. Many departments such as Health, Education, and International Aid are largely ring fenced so it's they the (relatively) rich that gets the pleasure and the poor (all the others) that, in the words of the song best known to students and rugby players, gets the pain . Indeed, as that song goes on, it IS the same the whole world over. Labour won't have had any problems anticipating the text which meant that Mr Balls was able to proceed with his brief pre-secripted ritual rant in reply. He did not commend this budget to the house and nor was he likely to. That was George/Jeffrey's traditional job/sign off. Then it was subsidised lunchtime.

Now to the global:

Six thousand miles away, South Africa is facing anxious times. Killings of Afrikaaner farmers, now over 1,500 of them ,continue. They are largely unreported overseas. Nelson Mandela is not looking healthy and many of his family are fighting over all aspects of his legacy,- including the political. Most menacing of the contestants is his second wife Winnie who, apart from trying to rewrite some history, is now claiming that she has never ceased to love him dearly. Her political ambitions have certainly never died and nor have her feelings about the white population. Ominously she is talking again about disappointment about the slow pace of redistribution of wealth . Read the code carefully. ITN News which , from a supine position, interviewed her this week didn't read it all. As we say, some anxious times ahead,- and not just for the white population.

The American presidential visit to South Africa ,complete the very large motorcade and supporting vehicles which the US insists on flying in wherever he goes, went smoothly and largely successfully. Surprisingly Obama has paid little attention to Africa while China has been rapidly increasing its influence throughout the continent so his announcement of a Chinese style gathering of African leaders in America next year has been well received. Some African leaders have been getting nervous about becoming too closely bound to China and to deeply into debt with it. As they will know from Tanzania and Mozambique's experiences from the 1970s they can get into a situation where one debt leads to another and combined these can only be paid off by mortgaging ever increasing percentages of natural resources and future trade to China, leaving little with which to do business with the rest of the world. It's about as comfortable as a garotte and from an economic and political standpoint has a similar effect.

The Middle East rocks on,-literally. The West's darling "Arab Spring" which it naively thought would bring some sort of western style democracy to the Arab world  has in several places moved on to " Arab Autumn"  and in others joined Iraq and Afghanistan in heading for " Arab Winter" . Across the region, tens , thousands and now hundreds of thousands of people have been killed in the conflicts which have followed the structural collapse, of like them or not,  formerly largely functioning states. Most of those killed have been civilians whose first priority in and for life is for them and their families to live day to day in peace and security in the safety of their homes and streets. They have never wanted to see mass carnage or the appalling destruction of personal property, houses and state infrastructure. Would the British like to live in a London  or anywhere else reduced to a pile of rubble? Would almost any political ideal , particularly a foreign one ,be worth it? Our leaders still toy with  "Doing Something" and the idea of sending more arms into a Syria already awash with cheap weapons where they can only add to the mayhem, killings and destruction. When the US and UK invaded a physically intact and secular Iraq to remove the admittedly odious Saddam Hussein, the cities, towns and villages of the Middle East and Gulf were functioning and  most people went about their lives in safety. Since then hundreds of thousands have died and a number of the cities, towns and villages converted into not much more than piles of bricks. Normality is suspended and replaced by constant fear of dispossession, injury or death. The secular states have veered towards or  become religion dominated ones. Haven't we done well?

Further afield, the knockabout world of Australian politics has had another knockabout. Three years ago the sheila Julia Gillard knifed Kevin Rudd the bloke. Now he's knifed her. Fair one might say but neither would perhaps be the electorate's favourite as leader. Neither though would be Tony Abbott the leader of the opposition. A truly democratic choice lies before the country in September 14th's General Election.

And back to the non global:

Wimbledon is into its second week. The Common Tim has of course long been replaced by the Common Andy who looks as if he is in with a chance, most of his big name rivals having slipped up in the first week. While he battles on,  the nation's TV screens do overtime and many employees don't. Next week we will be back to normal but never mind, GCSE's , A Levels and University finals are over and the long summer hols with staff continuously reduced by 30-40 % from mid July until early September beckon. For our elected representatives life is tougher. They have to put up with an even longer break until they really get going again. By then the 2015 General Election will only be 18 months away so maybe things will start to be less quiet and we will start to see some action or at least talk, their prefered option, on the real big issues .Whether or not anyone does or does not eat GM food may seem less important.