With just 24 hours to go before those who haven't already voted go to the polls at least everyone seems to agree that this one will go to the wire and a photofinish, followed maybe by days of legal wrangling to. Nothing other than an orderly world ever seems to be bad news for lawyers.
There is though a feeling that Obama will just about squeeze home. He's made it more difficult for himself by that one slip,- his disastrous, lacklustre performance in the first televised debate with Romney. Maybe one day we will know why he allowed himself to perform so badly. Exhaustion goes with the job and electioneering in particular so it's no excuse.
His victory would be partly because most people approve of the way he has handled the aftermath to Sandy ("God's indicator" say some) but it would probably be more because of the way the Electoral College works. There are many websites which explain this, one being http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012 elections electoral college map.html;.
There are more paths to victory for Obama than for Romney although if Romney won all the states that Bush gained in 2000 he would have a much bigger victory due to changes in population. If though he wins those states but loses Ohio he loses. That's one reason why everyone will be watching Ohio.
It is quite possible that Obama will win the Presidency though with fewer votes than Romney . That's what happened in 2000 in Bush v Gore when Gore won more votes overall.
If it does turn out that way the Republicans may be very sore losers and, with a continuing majority in the House of Representatives/Congress , they may make life even more difficult for Obama in his second term.
Either way the next President is going to have to make some very tough choices. It might,- as in the UK in 2010, be easier for the losers.
Andrew Lloyd-Williams.
