On the subject of prospects in Afghanistan former Russian leader Gorbachev is bluntly saying it like it is. There is no possibility of a military victory for the US and UK, just as there was none for the Russians before them or the British last time round in the Afghan wars of the 19th century. If anyone could speak from the grave, those on the British retreat from Kabul to Jalalabad over a hundred years ago could have told told us-and our current leaders ,- that for nothing.If anyone missed it, or is rusty on the history and wants a good read , Flashman offers excellent insights. Thanks to not listening to history or taking even a short flight over the spectacular and rugged country to see what it looks like, billions have been spent and hundreds of brave young lives have been wasted. Thousands more young people with their lives ahead of them have been maimed and devastatingly disabled in the quest for a militarily achieved, terrorism, fear and corruption-free democratic state. Visions of a Westminster style parliament in which the Hon Member for Kandahar South will ask questions of the Hon Member for Helmand Central must have flitted before some of our politicians eyes, or we would never have been there. Presumably they still do as we continue to deploy large amounts of money, men and machines on the quest.
In the real world this democratic parliamentary vision simply isn't going to happen. Afghanistan isn't like that. The only thing that unites the multitude of factions in the country is the presence of a foreign force. Even the most benign will be seen as an invader against which all, for their many and hotly expressed disagreements, will join together. We are wasting out time and the sooner we accept this and leave the better for all concerned. In the short term the Afghans will suffer terribly. A period of hardline rule, probably via the Taleban,is almost inevitable during which those who cooperated with the west will at worst be slaughtered and at best be made highly uncomfortable. We will rightly feel guilty , although impotent,because we created this state of affairs.Our credibility as a protector will be-literally-shot and that gives our diplomacy and influence a problem from here on.
The case for occupying the country to rid it of extremist training bases from which graduates will return to menace our streets is weak. They can easily be trained in one of several other countries even if they are wiped out in Afghanistan. Are we going to invade each possibility in an update and contortion of the Vietnam era domino theory? Modern electonics and remote controlled drones can anyway remove training camps, people we don't like and the rest much more cheaply and surgically than can a large army with problematical mobility and always at risk of very effective of low tech attack. These new developments will also do the job at a fraction of the price. The next problem we will have created is what happens when "the enemy" get their hands on even a few of these new weapons, especially if they can launch them in or close to the invaders homes? Whose photographs will they be carrying in their target finding equipment? The chain of events we have unleashed by invading Iraq and Afghanistan looks more dangerous and never ending by the day. How do we put the cork back in the bottle? Can we? Gorbachev's comments make as good a start point as any.
