Around the world in 80 seconds,- A timesaving snapshot of both UK domestic and global affairs.(Actually there are more than two).

First the non global:

All quiet on the UK home front. Big issues and courage to the fore. As we mentioned last week ,Dave won't say whether or not he would feed GM modified food eg "Gummerburgers" to his family. Now Nick, pale faced and looking his normal unhealthy self, says he has never knowingly done so. Pity. It might have brought some colour to his cheeks, if not his always ever-so-good politics.

Since then Dave been on tne international stomp, first to Afghanistan and then to the democratic state of Khazakstan. One always worries a bit about countries whose armies goose step and wear those massive Soviet/North Korean style hats designed to make small people look bigger and more menacing. Oddly none of them are paragons of democratic virtue. Funny that. In Afghanistan he said it might have been a good idea to talk to the Taliban ten years ago. Spot on,- at last. It's a pity though that his brief awayadays in both countries will not have allowed him time off for a bit of a breather and the opportunity to get just the slightest feel for what these countries and life in them might really be like.Sadly none of Britain's tender-hefted politicians seem to go on holiday or walkabout outside Europe. Maybe they just don't realise that sweeping along in a escorted bullet proof air conditioned limos one doesn't get much of a feel of even minor normal hassles like immigration desks and people in arrivals claiming to be your driver. It's a pity as even in the local Starbucks lookalike they might learn more than they do at the ritual state refreshments over the best clarets or Arabian coffees.

George's,- or is it Jeffrey's,- speech on how Britain is going to spend its borrowed money over the next few years contained little that wasn't reheated old stuff . Only the attempts at rhetoric, some of it excruciating and transparently bad, were new material. No surprises or excitement. Many departments such as Health, Education, and International Aid are largely ring fenced so it's they the (relatively) rich that gets the pleasure and the poor (all the others) that, in the words of the song best known to students and rugby players, gets the pain . Indeed, as that song goes on, it IS the same the whole world over. Labour won't have had any problems anticipating the text which meant that Mr Balls was able to proceed with his brief pre-secripted ritual rant in reply. He did not commend this budget to the house and nor was he likely to. That was George/Jeffrey's traditional job/sign off. Then it was subsidised lunchtime.

Now to the global:

Six thousand miles away, South Africa is facing anxious times. Killings of Afrikaaner farmers, now over 1,500 of them ,continue. They are largely unreported overseas. Nelson Mandela is not looking healthy and many of his family are fighting over all aspects of his legacy,- including the political. Most menacing of the contestants is his second wife Winnie who, apart from trying to rewrite some history, is now claiming that she has never ceased to love him dearly. Her political ambitions have certainly never died and nor have her feelings about the white population. Ominously she is talking again about disappointment about the slow pace of redistribution of wealth . Read the code carefully. ITN News which , from a supine position, interviewed her this week didn't read it all. As we say, some anxious times ahead,- and not just for the white population.

The American presidential visit to South Africa ,complete the very large motorcade and supporting vehicles which the US insists on flying in wherever he goes, went smoothly and largely successfully. Surprisingly Obama has paid little attention to Africa while China has been rapidly increasing its influence throughout the continent so his announcement of a Chinese style gathering of African leaders in America next year has been well received. Some African leaders have been getting nervous about becoming too closely bound to China and to deeply into debt with it. As they will know from Tanzania and Mozambique's experiences from the 1970s they can get into a situation where one debt leads to another and combined these can only be paid off by mortgaging ever increasing percentages of natural resources and future trade to China, leaving little with which to do business with the rest of the world. It's about as comfortable as a garotte and from an economic and political standpoint has a similar effect.

The Middle East rocks on,-literally. The West's darling "Arab Spring" which it naively thought would bring some sort of western style democracy to the Arab world  has in several places moved on to " Arab Autumn"  and in others joined Iraq and Afghanistan in heading for " Arab Winter" . Across the region, tens , thousands and now hundreds of thousands of people have been killed in the conflicts which have followed the structural collapse, of like them or not,  formerly largely functioning states. Most of those killed have been civilians whose first priority in and for life is for them and their families to live day to day in peace and security in the safety of their homes and streets. They have never wanted to see mass carnage or the appalling destruction of personal property, houses and state infrastructure. Would the British like to live in a London  or anywhere else reduced to a pile of rubble? Would almost any political ideal , particularly a foreign one ,be worth it? Our leaders still toy with  "Doing Something" and the idea of sending more arms into a Syria already awash with cheap weapons where they can only add to the mayhem, killings and destruction. When the US and UK invaded a physically intact and secular Iraq to remove the admittedly odious Saddam Hussein, the cities, towns and villages of the Middle East and Gulf were functioning and  most people went about their lives in safety. Since then hundreds of thousands have died and a number of the cities, towns and villages converted into not much more than piles of bricks. Normality is suspended and replaced by constant fear of dispossession, injury or death. The secular states have veered towards or  become religion dominated ones. Haven't we done well?

Further afield, the knockabout world of Australian politics has had another knockabout. Three years ago the sheila Julia Gillard knifed Kevin Rudd the bloke. Now he's knifed her. Fair one might say but neither would perhaps be the electorate's favourite as leader. Neither though would be Tony Abbott the leader of the opposition. A truly democratic choice lies before the country in September 14th's General Election.

And back to the non global:

Wimbledon is into its second week. The Common Tim has of course long been replaced by the Common Andy who looks as if he is in with a chance, most of his big name rivals having slipped up in the first week. While he battles on,  the nation's TV screens do overtime and many employees don't. Next week we will be back to normal but never mind, GCSE's , A Levels and University finals are over and the long summer hols with staff continuously reduced by 30-40 % from mid July until early September beckon. For our elected representatives life is tougher. They have to put up with an even longer break until they really get going again. By then the 2015 General Election will only be 18 months away so maybe things will start to be less quiet and we will start to see some action or at least talk, their prefered option, on the real big issues .Whether or not anyone does or does not eat GM food may seem less important. 

Why he's losing it. Of rebels and GM cornflakes.

Is our Prime Minister spinning off the planet, - or too concerned about spinning on it.

First there was the meticulously spun G8 awayaday or two in Northern Ireland. Still backdrops for a photocall, faux tieless smart casual to show he and all present were people of ( some, unspecified) people . Add to that the local high street being spun up with a clever makeover making a closed shop look like a delicatessen for the supposedly prosperous locals. Then , when he had dealt with global businesses seeking the lowest legal tax regimes ,there was all the posing and posturing about Syria with a dose of moral intoning - or should we say In-Toning ?- about the need to send arms parcels to the forces of the Syrian democrats ( who?) . This despite it being quite clear that he hasn't a hope of getting the idea through Parliament .All the stuff of a strong, square jawed leader we are presumably supposed to think.

Now back to the la la world of greenery and the fashionable planet saving movements. All's well there . Drax power station is beginning to consume its land gobbling 40 train loads of Canadian wood chips a day. Time to turn Prime Ministerial muscle and determination to the question of GM foods. What do we get ? A courageous definately maybe. We should look at it. Maybe do something about it. " Would our dear leader valiantly eat GM food and, potential horrors, feed it to his family?"  Back behind the settee, afraid of Mumsnet and chattering dinner parties, Number 10 can't say. Maybe yes, maybe no. It's easier to arm a band of rebels somewhere else than face that lot . That's our man. That's also why he is not heading for glory in 2015 despite having followed the most financially disastrous government of modern times.

Dave (and William) Not of Arabia,- a word of advice.

Syria. Don't go there. Twiga has been amongst many saying that from the start. We are in good company. Clearly President Obama has believed the same. No doubt he refers to us every day.

The stirrings in Whitehall , especially recent ones, have been disturbingly at variance with this advice. It's all too tempting when hubris is beginning to set in. It was both the actuality and symptom of that state of mind when Blair decided to foresake his whole legacy (that's different,- a lot different,- from what he will be leaving in his will) of reforming the Labour Party, establishing a new party in the true centre of British politics and reforming all the state establishments which so badly needed it in favour of a military adventure in Iraq. OK, he was also mesmerised by the attraction of being seen standing shoulder to shoulder with George Bush at his hands-thrust- in-jeans macho best, but he'd probably have gone Saddam hunting even without that. The vision of emerging as a great war hero as Thatcher did from the Falklands was just too irresistable.

Is the same thing now happening in Downing Street and across the road in William Hague's office even if not universally in all points in between? This week Dave has said that he didn't see the conflict just in religious terms but more broadly as between the regime and a number of rebel groups who were really just seeking more democracy and some of whom were nice enough to help with a few purely humanitarian shipments of arms (only to be used by good people,- promise) to add to the multitudes already there. He is worried at standing and being seen to do nothing while "another Bosnia " develops, but while the atrocities in Syria are as bad or worse, and in this instance on both sides , the two situations are very different.

There was a chance of a successful military intervention in Bosnia because there were clearly identifiable sides, one of which could be deemed "good" and the other "bad". Easy, - just line up with the "good" one , pour in  professional, well organised and well equipped top quality military forces, separate the two warring parties and a visible success,- and some sort of democracy even,- was possible.

Syria is very different. Certainly there are some "good" people on the rebel side but the factions are very diverse and many are far from democracy-driven and , given power, would rule no less ferociously or less anti-western than Assad. Even a coalition between the various factions would be unlikely to hold beyond sitting together for a few minutes.That over, once they started slugging it out there is no knowing in whose hands those generously and well meaningly handed out arms would end up and what they would be used to do. Actually sending in the (British) army to separate the warring factions and protect the desparately suffering non combatants who just want to live in peace would probably only see all the factions and Assad's forces turn, temporarily with an identical purpose, to drive them out. Serious numbers of casualties would be inevitable and a lasting solution even further away.

This one has to be solved in and by the Arab world.That means the Levantine states, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and those of the North African coast. Together they have have the added complications of the non-Arab Iran with its own ambitions and the need to find some sort of accomodation with Israel which even the Israelis themselves dont make easy thanks to their penchant of building settlements inside where any eventual viable Palestinain state would be. Outside help with diplomacy and mediation may be needed and appreciated, but only when asked for rather than imposed. While the west continues its eternal meddling and ill judged and largely unsuccessful interventions there is no pressure on the Arab nations to seriously get together and work out their destiny. It's been like that for more than a century. Time for a change and that's where, by standing aside, however ghastly the immediate nightly TV pictures and shrill "we must do something" calls for "action" the west, can push them.

Right now the supply of  humanitarian food and medical supplies to the benighted non combatants who just want the fighting to stop is absolutely essential and justified in anybody's terms. Cameron and Hague's mission should be to deliver that. A pound spent on these supplies is much better value than one spent on bullets. The duo should  not be tempted to ride into town in a thunder of hooves as conquering sheriffs, swagger down the deserted main street, hands ready to draw the six shooters (or even Blair-like thrust into tops of pale washed jeans) to heroically restore law and order. Even in American history not all of those heroics and the rest ended in a glorious sunset with the baddies lying all over the ground. Life just wasn't and isn't like that. Far from it. Many sheriffs had their badges removed posthumously as they lay riddled with bullets generously supplied from all directions by all the town's factions in a rare moment of unity. That isn't a good way to go Dave and William (The new Wild Bill?).

The Lagos Airport Experience. The Latest from our Africa Travel Specialist

The Lagos Airport Experience.

(The names have been changed to protect the innocent / guilty, as the case may be)

I am a fan of Nigeria. I’ve lived there, albeit some years ago, and have visited regularly on business since. Yes, it has a terrible reputation, and most of the stories you have heard about it are true ,– though bear in mind that they do not all happen every single day to every single person. Lagos is big, bad, chaotic, infuriating, overwhelming, noisy and lively,  and of all my West African destinations, this is the one that makes me feel that somewhere deep, deep below the surface there may lurk an African Hong Kong. The energy is there, the desire to do business and get things done is there . If only the city didn’t keep tripping over its shoelaces then maybe, one day, it won’t deserve its reputation.

Anyway, earlier this year I found myself arriving at Lagos airport once again, with two first-time visitors in tow. I had been subjected to a barrage of questions over the preceeding week as to exactly how things would work, what they needed, what they could expect. ‘Don’t worry, it will be fine – Nigeria is actually not bad,’ was pretty much the summary of the response.

Unfortunately I hadn’t reckoned with first impressions, and the desire and ability of the airport officials to ensure that Lagos airport’s reputation is both upheld and justified.

The first offence was a schoolboy error. Coming up through the health check, the three of us were asked for our Yellow Fever vaccination cards. I knew I’d forgotten mine. I’d remembered it at the airport this morning in Europe. An early morning departure from home, I’d put the passport in my bag and accidentally left the inoculation card on the shelf. Not to worry, other than in Congo I couldn’t remember the last time I’d been asked to show it. Turns out one of the Nigeria rookies had made the same mistake. The Port Health officer was delighted.

‘You will be deported!’ he said, his eyes lighting up. ‘This very night, back to your country!’

Bob, who had his card, looked concerned. Charlie, who had been the least keen to come to Nigeria in the first place, seemed to think that being deported didn’t sound like such a bad option, but he wasn’t going to give in without a fight. I just said ‘fine,’ knowing that this was only the start of the negotiation process, and said I would call our agent to let him know we were delayed and would be out shortly.

‘You will not be out shortly,’ said the Port Health man. ‘You are going home!’ and took us off to his desk to note down our flight and passport details. I wasn’t going to hand over my passport, but held it open for him so he could record everything in his battered notebook. Meanwhile the rest of the passengers on the flight were filing past, unchecked, and a couple of other officials arrived to contribute to our process. One opened the game by pulling me aside and saying that we could settle this very easily.

I told him I was going to wait for our agent to arrive, as he had told me he would. ‘Where is your agent?’ asked Port Health man No 2. ‘He is coming just now,’ I replied, and refused to call him again.

 Meanwhile two things happened almost simultaneously. Firstly it emerged that Charlie had disappeared.

‘Where is your friend?’ demanded Port Health No 1. ‘You are 3 people, aren’t you?’ Bob and I had no idea. We were 3, but where the 3^rd one had got to, we did not know. We thought he was with you? The first Port Health man vowed to find him and ran off towards the exit.

About that time, Bob took his phone out of his pocket. It turned out that the device was not correctly locked, and as he pulled it out, the camera was triggered. Including the flash.

‘What are you doing snapping an Officer?’ demanded just about anyone in uniform within a 50 metre radius. A minor scuffle ensued, ending with Bob’s phone being in the hands of some form of airport security man. Tempers flared and an explanation was sought .Bob’s plea that it was an accident was not going down well. All sorts of tut-tutting and ‘can you imagine, snapping officers on duty, what is this man doing?’ were going on between the various officials. In the end, Bob convinced them to at least take a look at the incriminating shot, which showed a blank wall. For some of the assembled company, what the photo was actually of was irrelevant.  The fact remained that Bob had taken a photo in a place where he shouldn’t have. Eventually however not even one of Nigeria’s finest can keep pretending that while regrettable, no real harm had been done, and the phone was returned with the photo deleted. The process was probably helped by the fact that by this point Charlie had been located and was being escorted back to Port Health. From the point of view of the authorities, this was probably an easier one to win.

Charlie wasn’t coming easily. He refused to show his passport and started having a shouting match with the first Port Health official, until I intervened and got them to agree that the official would note down the details while Charlie held his passport open. A pleasant man in a suit arrived and was introduced as the big boss, and started talking with me and Bob. I gave him the full on apology, how could I have forgotten my yellow card, even I, who had previously lived in Nigeria, etc etc, and after a couple of minutes he said that on this occasion, he would let us go, however our details had been noted and if it happened a second time, etc etc. Anyway that, it would appear, was that, and he walked with us towards the door.

‘There is just one problem,’ he said, ‘your driver, he has been detained. It seems he tried to force his way into the airport…’ ‘and he insulted a senior officer’ chipped in Port Health No 1.

Right. Good. I was pretty sure the driver would be able to extricate himself, and said we would wait.

Bob helpfully pointed out that had Charlie and I had our Yellow Fever cards with us, none of this would have happened.

‘Would you recognize the agent?’ I was asked.

It is usually the same guy and even if not, they wear Hi-Vis company jackets so I probably could.

‘In that case, come with us to identify him, so we know his story (of coming to meet you) is true, and he is not just one here to make trouble.’

We re-traced our steps back past Port Health and up the back stairs of Lagos airport. Various unfortunates languished in cells, some with lights, some without, presumably on their way back to where there had come from. One corner was acting as a prayer-room, various other offices were stacked high with files while hard working airport employees sat on plastic chairs, reading the morning’s newspapers. Eventually in a large cupboard-sized space under the stairs we found our driver filling out a form.

‘Is this him?’

‘Yes ,– that’s our man,’ I said.

It wasn’t quite the end of it. My details had to be recorded with those of the driver as some form of guarantor, and eventually we were led out into the sunshine and found our car.

Charlie commented that so far, Lagos was just as bad as he had expected, and seemed almost pleased that he would be able to go home with a good Nigeria horror story all of his own to add to  everyone else’s.

Three days later, we were departing again. Nigeria has ambitions to become some kind of aviation hub, and the casual visitor to Lagos airport dropping in on a weekday evening could be led to believe that this ambition is being realized. Between about 9 and 10 pm, a dozen or so international flights are scheduled – the locals to Douala, Abidjan, Freetown, the rest of Africa; Nairobi, Addis, Johannesburg, Cairo, and the long hauls to London, Paris, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Dubai, Houston and Atlanta.

The place is heaving. It seems the world really does connect at Lagos. You can even check in online.

The one problem with the world connecting at Lagos is that there are only 2 x-ray machines. The queue snakes back, well out into the terminal. Tempers are fraying, small children are crying and everyone else feels like doing the same. The aircon doesn’t work and the few fans available are dedicated to keeping the immigration officers cool. It takes a sweaty hour and 15 to get to the x-ray machine itself.

The other side of that is immigration. I have a multi-entry visa in my passport and the officer sees an opportunity. Despite the fact that both the entry and exit stamps from my previous visit are clearly visible on the page facing the visa, he wants to be sure that I somehow haven’t been staying in Nigeria since I entered the first time, 3 months previously, as I am only allowed to stay for up to 30 days per visit. A supervisor is called, and to his credit advises the man handling my passport that here is one case that he will just have to drop. At the next desk, immediately under a ‘Lagos Airport Fights Corruption’ poster, complete with whistle-blower hotline numbers to call, the Immigration officer returns a passport unstamped to a Nigerian passenger, who in turn tucks a 1,000 niara note into it and hands it back across the desk. I’m half tempted to call the hotline, but even I, the Nigeria optimist, have had a little too much of Lagos Airport recently to risk another few hours there tonight assisting the investigation.

UK basks in Bank Holiday sun,- and wind.

You can't have it all. So far the 2013 Spring hasn't really happened,- more of a continuation of winter most of the time. With June only days away the appearance of some warm ( if behind your windbreaks) sun has been welcome and an almost unusual backdrop to the second Bank (ie public) Holiday of the month. This one is doubly significant as it leads straight into the half term week, another "works shutdown" for a UK plc almost exhausted by the long run of unrelenting toil since the Easter holidays all of six weeks ago. Never mind, we will soon be into the summer social sporting and corporate hospitality season of Ascot, Wimbledon and Henley which will see us nearly into the summer hols proper.

So how are we doing and how's our world?

Very sadly the week was dominated by the shooting of an off duty soldier by a couple of deluded religious extremists acting it seems alone in isolation from any group. The one off grouping or hit man is the most difficult thing to detect or predict. There are disaffected people everywhere,- and not just in Britain. Some express themselves noisily but others sit and smoulder and in most cases do nothing. A tiny percentage though will be insane enough to believe that killing people will in some way advance their cause or even gain them eternal redemption for their other deficiencies. That's what happened this week .Inevitably baying tabloid media and self-appointed pundits spent a lot of column inches and air time saying why didn't the security services detect this one coming? The answer is of course that a 100% success rate is impossible and the fact that these incidents are so few and far between is a testimony to a 99.99% sucess rate nevertheless.

Inevitably included in the response are calls from political opportunists, led by the Home Secretary, Theresa May,  to revive the recently abandoned and potentially highly repressive measures contained in the Communications Data Bill. These , widely condemned by free speech supporters at home and abroad , would have given the government, any government, the right to access almost any electronic communication of any sort. It's the kind of thing that could be expected and would be condemned here if the country concerned were Russia, Zimbabwe or almost anywhere but the UK. Even if benign in initial intention ,it is capable of being used and misused by less scrupulous governments in the future and as such is highly dangerous. The fact that the idea is supported by both the left and right wings of the UK's political parties should be warning enough and for once the LibDems are right in opposing the Bill. It is likely that they will be overwhelmed by an unusual and unholy alliance of the Conservative and Labour parties, the leadership of both being apparently impervious to what it means for the underlying character of the British way of life.

Before this incident took over the headlines and the inner pages, the politicians, ever keen to avoid the top slot in the baddies of the day stakes, had been labelling approbrium on the evil tax- evading,- ie minimising,- global nationals. Much to the relief of many in the Canary Wharf and City banking areas Starbucks had enjoyed a spell in the dock a few months ago and been named and shamed as really bad people. That got expenses-laden politicians off the hook too. They hadn't been enjoying being below estate agents and bankers in the national trust tables.  The offshore global betheren hadn't broken the law,- something created by politicians and contained in about 17,000 obviously clear and concise pages of tax rules and formulae,- but  just done their duty to their shareholders , customers and employees by not spending money where they didn't need to. Like most , Starbucks had though created thousands of jobs in Britain, all occupied by people who paid tax and usefully with any left over bought goods and services which employed other people who then also paid tax, weren't on the dole.... and so on. They had created a product people wanted to buy, trained their staff well and given many a launch pad into other things, but the evil so-and -sos had not paid more in tax than the 17,000 pages said they might if they were actually worded differently. This week it has been Google's turn in the dock. Again they have created new jobs for a large numbers of people in the country, are a good and even fun employer, are investing over £1 building in a new HQ and generally pouring megapounds into the economy, while perfectly legally paying corporation tax in Ireland where it's lower. "Unfair, foul, we need EU or global agreements to stop this kind of thing happening". "I will raise it at G8 " says brave, fearless David Cameron scenting a popular and emotional winner. This is the same David Cameron who a few weeks ago was urging French businesses to move their head offices to the UK to avoid new and punitive taxes at home. That, it seems, was fair game. The Irish doing it to the UK is not. Have we missed something,- and might not the Irish anyway have got it right with a low business tax regime? Isn't that where we should all be heading to leave more money in companies' and peoples' pockets to invest or spend to expand the economy?

Anyway, so as to get away before the weekend holiday rush ,Parliament shut down again on Tuesday afternoon. Nothing to do with avoiding having a Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday of course or actually not having a lot to do now much of the legislation factory has moved across the North Sea to Brussels.  Cameron sensibly headed for the airport, ignoring howls of "How could he when we are under attack from terrorists"? from the learned tabloids and others. We should be grateful that he went. We need our leaders , such as they are, fresh and not exhausted from having to be on the bridge in all kind of foul weather. They'd always be there and too befuddled to see or do anything about the future. With state of the art communications systems,- and we can be sure he isn't marooned with just an old bedside or hallway telephone, -he is hardly out of the picture. His choice of destination, the familiar Ibiza, is though a bit unimaginative and disappointing. OK, it has pretty much guaranteed warmth and sunshine, beaches and good food and drink and it isn't far away in case a dash back is really needed and there's no jetlag involved . Wouldn't though a family saunter around say Singapore, a pleasant and easy introduction to modern ,thriving, prosperous, hard working, everything working, Asia have been more thought provoking and educational? We would add Bangkok, but for any politician that is probably a risk too far. Just think of the opportunities for photographers: "Just stand in front of that door a minute Mr Cameron".  A trip to at least Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai in should be compulsory for all Britain's and indeed the EU's politicians. If the absence of that, their sunlounger reading on their Kindles should be the guide to Hong Kong's flat rate tax law.

One thing Dave will have missed as he headed off to the sun was the UEFA Cup Final at Wembley between the German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. Maybe he wasn't invited but maybe he watched it on TV?  If he didn't he should have, as should Messrs Miliband/E and  Clegg. Not for the game,- they could have skipped that if they weren't interested,- but for the bit at the end when the 2 teams climbed the Everest-like steps to the presentation box high in the stadium, itself no mean feat after 90 minutes on the pitch. There was Angela Merkel, relaxed, genuinely joyful, chatting easily and naturally with all around her and the teams and officials as they came up. Could any of our wooden leaders looked so spontaneous, human and really rather than patronisingly glad to be there?  For some reason they all seem to have enormous difficulty in presenting themselves as real citizens of planet earth beyond selected areas of London and their allied country retreats. If the Germans throw her out in this year's elections perhaps we could offer her a contract. We are happy with European football managers so why not a country manager?

UK-The Queen's 8th May Speech. All the fun and games.

Yesterday HM the Queen had the dubious pleasure of again reading out from a parchment manuscript (well, at least it precludes last minute alterations) her government's intended programme for the next twelve months. That will take the country to within a year of the 2015 General Election. Time, you might think for really getting a grip on the essentials and fast tracking delivery.

The whole speech took less than eight minutes, was fair on some aspirations, especially of those wanting to get on a bit, verbally positive though unclear on immigration, helpful in moving the sluggish progress of the new High Speed 2 railway line along a bit but not overly so. (The £2bn a year spend on construction has to follow on from the same sum currently being spent on London's much delayed Crossrail scheme). There were things about pensioners only having to pay around £150,000 between them to cover what passes, or doesn't , for "care" in their twilight years, a fairer society, the favourite LibDem insert which gives them sort of fuzzy warm feelings but are otherwise pretty meaningless. At root is the underlying theme that the current scapegoats , be they bankers  or people who have made a bit other than by the socially acceptable means of winning it on the X factor or the lottery or being a footballer or pop star must be soaked for more tax. The fact that they already may pay more than is fair is irrelevant. Philosophically the left mean "Yes, we support you getting on a bit but just don't overdo it even if you create jobs for other people as being better off would be unfair and we will take the money off you."

There were weren't even vagueries about the promised one day referendum on Britain's relationship with the EU. Never mind , we already know that Dave will go to the Belgian/EU capital with jaw squared, say "enough is enough" and come back with another piece of parchment or maybe a tweet from Angela saying all is well. Everyone knows it won't be. The UK and the mainland European superstatists simply want different things and always have. Neither of them is wrong. They just think differently.

 Realists know that Dave's record as a negotiator so far hasn't been wonderful,- and that's being nice to him. Right now he is up/down there with that awfully nice chap on "The Apprentice" who can't help giving the shop away even after a good deal has been done . That means that British free traders but non-federalists can't be optimistic about where the EU is inexorably going. The much better organised Europeans are much more politically astute, battle hardened ,savvy and organised . They know that despite the advance carryon ,come the day or night our man is really a pushover and that he really wants to stay in and be invited to the top table. He only likes top tables and has always been used to them. He would cringe at the very idea of being anywhere else. Heaven forbid the Burger King or even the Starbucks, or British, tax paying Costa, next to the laundry. He is therefore likely to accept the nice seat away from the rabble even if he knows, as surely he must, that the real discussions in Europe have long been stitched up by the continentals beforehand off camera. They always have been. They will give him some nice words and a bauble or two to take home and offer the British public in a referendum and that will be it. None of all this is a good starting point for those who really do want a new relationship with the EU and with it a thoroughly democratic overhaul of that incredibly autocratic, directive and non democratic organisation.

 The UK has never wanted to be absorbed into a monolithic superstate . Its biggest failing is never having come out straight and said so. It should have done so right from the start but in Edward Heath's fawning desparation to get in it never did . Successive Prime Ministers have then put off the moment of truth and as result allowed the UK to be sucked ever deeper  in. As result, getting out has become more and more difficult.

Her Majesty, the master of concealing her views about anything other than a winning horse, delivers the words with no indication of her feelings about any of it. No rolled eyes, no yawns or sounds of weariness and no inserts along the lines of "You won't believe this but...." If her world were free it would be reasonable for her to glance through the pages and declare: "Look, I think that Dave or someone has already tweeted, twittered or something about all this so you already know as much as I do. There's not much point in reading it out and its full of platitudes and things that will never happen anyway. Come on Philip, these good people must be waiting for their lunch, we should be going".

After the royal party, including a medal festooned Prince Charles and tiara topped (Princess but not) Camilla, had left, the politicians filed out for said (subsidised) lunch break before going back to the Commons for the traditional exchange of unpleasantaries. Something has happened to the art of debating recently. The art has largely gone. (Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are much needed in the Commons). The two main party leaders, Dave and Ed show it clearly almost every time they exchange any comments beyond "Hello", if they actually ever do say that. Whether it is weekly Prime Ministers Questions, a debate like this one or any other, we are not treated to carefully ,calmly and coherently worded statements, explanations but an exchange of noisy rants conducted at high volume. This is neither debating nor oratory. Miliband has developed a cleverer approach than Cameron and goes to get under the Prime Minister's skin, something that isn't difficult . The latter should know that by now and , if the good responses don't come easily he should have been tutored have been tutored in how to go about them, how to vary the pace and tone and come out on top and Prime Ministerial without just being noisily arrogant. Unfortunately there either hasn't been any tutoring or if there has been a change of mentor is needed.

Put aside the pagentry and spectacle yesterday in parliament was not inspiring . There was no sign of vision or leadership anywhere. It was very dull and pointed towards another hung parliament after 2015. Some might say it pointed more towards hanging parliament as electors file into the booths to spoil their papers by writing in "None of the Above" or of course simply voting UKIP to say the same thing. That's a dreary thought and an indictment of the current crop never-done-a-real- job professional politicians on all sides. They should be boldly delivering vision, dynamism, energy, and commitment to better everything. With two years to go to the next General Election they aren't. That's not good for democracy. It's also a huge waste of talent on their part. Time to get a grip.

UK Local elections in a nutshell.- It's all down to humans.

THE STORY:

This week's single parliamentary by-election (In escapee David Miliband's former rock solid Labour seat) and multiple council, and mayoral elections have been given General election style media coverage, hype and subsequent entrail examination. Further miles of newsprint will be gobbled up in tomorrow's Sunday papers, the verdicts largely pre-ordained by the political stances of the writers. On the TV Channels the BBC will plough its own institutional left of centre, anything labelled Conservative gets a bit of a snigger, furrow.

To save everyone time, here's what it was all about and what the outcomes mean, especially the 23% of "X" s achieved by UKIP, only recently described by David Cameron,- who got 25%- as a party of and for fruit cakes.

BEFORE THE ELECTION:

- This was the flip side of the 2009 elections when the Brown government was deep in the brown stuff and the Tories did extremely well.

-There was widespread media advance speculation that the Tories would be dealt devastating blows, lose control of many councils by losing 600+ seats.This it was said would put Labour, despite Ed Miliband, on track for a 2015  parliamentary majority.

-This was primarily a battle between the 3 established leaders, Cameron,(Clegg), and Miliband. Few other faces were seen or heard of on soapboxes or in the media. It was as if they were all unavoidably away, working from home or just on holiday. They seemed to want,-or have been ordered,-to keep away.

-In addition there was the known unknown Nigel Farage, leader and again sole face of UKIP, the United Kingdom Independence Party.

How were the leaders and parties  seen/what did they offer?


-Conservatives: In the immediate runup to the polls, Cameron insensitively (blissful unawareness?) reinforced the image and actuality of his inner circle being Etonian, failing which at least leading public school, and Oxbridge and mentally and behaviourally perhaps never having left the cloisters of these places. It is an unfortunate image which has dogged Cameron since the beginning and he has done little or nothing to deal with it. His inner group are visibly the sorts of people he feels most comfortable with and it is all very cosy. Most of its members are undoubtedly very clever and well educated people. Educationally Eton is superb with top university level teaching and mentoring. They turn out an excellent, confident and very polished product. The problem is that it and a few other schools also tend to isolate many of their pupils from any feel for or understanding of other worlds. Parachute them say into Liverpool, Blackburn, Glasgow and they are lost. They could analyse these places and their inhabitants but never understand them. This is a major failing and electoral liability.

-Labour (New Old): If David Miliband had, as expected and backed by individual party members and constituencies ,won the leadership contest in 2010 New Labour would be alive and well . It would now be offering a kind of mature Blair-free grown up slightly left of centre party, probably to the right of where many LibDems actually are. This would have enabled it to hang on to the asiprant middle class voters, particularly in the south, who gave Blair 3 successive general Election victories despite the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan. As the union block vote, led by Unite, managed to overturn the other 2 electoral college groups, we now have  Ed Miliband led party heading firmly back to its old roots, habitats (the north) and habits. That leaves most of the south other than parts of London and depressed , mainly seaside, towns looking for somewhere else to cast their votes if they don't go for the Tory boys.

-Liberal Democrat: Nick Clegg looks more miserable, pasty faced and frankly just wet by the day. He has made an art form of looking uncomfortable when sitting next to Cameron in the Commons and has decided that to survive in 2015 he has to visibly wring his hands and obstruct almost any non limp wristed measures proposed by his coalition partners. As result his party doesn't look like one that either of the other two would want to be in coalition with after the next election. He spoke yesterday of the party being in transition from being a party of protest to one of government. It may have been in 2010 but it certainly doesn't look that way now . With the added complication of the rise of UKIP,  this looks more like the party of nothing at all after 2015. Not an attractive place to put one's "X" this time then.

-and then there was UKIP, formerly derided by all three above for not really being a party at all but just a collection of right wing no-hopers glued together by a probably racist attitude to immigration and a dislike for wheer the EU has taken and hopes to take Britain. It's more about slamming on the brakes than having an exciting, well thought out and cohesive plan for a new Britain. In its 2010 manifesto it did mention being pro not just one but three new high speed railway lines and that sort of thing .When it came to vote harvesting though and the prospect of juicy electoral gains through a swathe of Tory Buckinghamshire by saying "Oh, but we didn't mean that one" and promising to be even more anti HS 2 than the already near-rabid Conservative opponents of the routing of the line through their heartlands UKIP went for it. So what had UKIP really got to offer ? First, foremost and many would say almost only, Nigel Farage, MEP. Alone amongst the 4 leaders he speaks plain English as understood by the bulk of the population. He is an excellent speaker . Just Google for his speeches in the EU Parliament where he is almost alone in Europe in down to earth, honest, clearly and decisively expressed  criticism of the EU's excesses and the culpability for them of its leading lights (?) We do not see such stuff in the Commons where the art of debate and clinical, rather than simply bawling, clinical disection of opponents has almost died out in the generally poorly attended House. Farage is also alone amongst the four leaders in being a man most males in particular can relate to. He says it like it is, has no time for political correctness, looks entirely at home and natural talking to anyone anywhere, particularly in a pub with a pint in one hand and a fag in the other. He is happy to confess to having seen the inside of a pole dancing club and having had a good evening. Just imagine Dave, Ed or Nick making such a confession. They'd probably have had to make it up anyway.

SO WHO DID WE VOTE FOR?

Were the Tories wiped out? Did Labour get those 600+ gains and do anything more than get back to where they were before the great Brown disaster?

The figures are simple:

Labour                     29%
Conservative            25%
UKIP                        23%
LibDem                    14%

Put another way, that means:

Parties of  the Right (Cons and UKIP)   48%
Parties of the  Left   (Lab and LibDem) 43%.

Not much more than one of Farage's cigarette papers between them then,with just a 5% difference overall between the right and left.

David Cameron as a leader isn't making much of an impact and there are no signs that he can. He doesn't appear comfortable outside his own circle, regardless of whether he is in London, at Chequers or at his Cotswold home and the thumbs down given to the Conservatives in these elections in his own constituency is significant. Labour's repeated dogwhistle cries of "Out of touch" have been very clever, found a resonance and stuck. Cameron does not come over as speaking "human" or someone you could have a good chat with in the pub, train, cafe or wherever. Indeed it is unlikely that you would find him in any of these unless surrounded by minders so normal contact is probably out of the question. Nor does he appear to have any normal sense of humour.

Ed Miliband is not disimilar in most of these respects . He is not therefore harvesting the benefit of Cameron's social isolation. He comes over to many as some kind of techi-geek from another planet and not as someone with whom you would enjoy a good easy going chat. That makes him a bit Brown-like though he probably wouldn't recognise the similarity. His appearances standing on a wooden pallet have often not drawn much of a crowd, if any, and have looked and been contrived and stage managed. Ditto all appearances of politicians in supermarkets, talking in schools and hospitals and the rest. They just don't look natural and so reinforce a feeling of artificiality so obvious that the audience feel demeaned for being taken to be mugs.

As for poor Nick, what can we say?

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION?

-In theory the outcome is pretty open and there is everything to play for.

-If the economic situation improves, so will the Conservative vote, but probably mainly at the expense of UKIP.

-If the economic situation remains as now or deteriorates the Labour vote will increase at the LibDems expense as well as the Conservatives.

-The LibDems are unlikely to play any part in a post 2015 government. Apart from anything else, who would trust them?  If Labour were the largest party it would probably do what the Tories should have done in 2010 and accept power as a minority government and then call a new election on their first defeat, standing on a platform of "Give us a mandate and we will do the job. If you don't you've got the Tories and UKIP."

-The interesting question would be whether the Conservatives would really offer UKIP a coalition or go for the same "no coalition" policy as above. The fun would then seriously begin if a second election produced the same result as then deals really would have to be done.

..AND LASTLY...............

UKIP came out of almost nowhere to achieve 235 of the vote, not just as a protest but above all because they have in Nigel Farage a leader who can genuinely connect with people and talk easily to and with them in simple non politically correct English unimpeded by politico-speak and evasion. For the Tories , Boris Johnson similarly defies the odds simply because he comes over as fun, humorous, plain speaking and above all human. His being an Etonian doesn't come into the equation. People don't much care about that or debate whether or not he would make a good Prime Minister . They just like his apparent down to earth directness and humour. That's why he won the 2012 London Mayoral Election despite the odds. He too could be having a cheery weekend.

Despite the parties of the right being 5% ahead in voting numbers, ironically this may not translate into a victory in 2015. The reverse in fact. By taking this percentage of the vote UKIP could fail to gain any seats of its own but undermine the Conservative numbers in many constituencies by enough to give Labour the wins. That could translate into Labour gaining an overall parliamentary majority despite them and the other party of the left being outvoted by those of the right.

Although today's media seemed to have missed that point it is unlikely to have passed unnoticed by the two main party leaders. It could be causing deep frowns wherever Dave is this Bank Holiday weekend and some genuine smiles wherever Ed is. Two very different Sunday lunches coming up. Elsewhere Nigel Farage is likely to be found in the sun outside the pub with his trademark pint, a fag and the broad smile of one who has just launched the cat amongst the pidgeons and is now sitting back to watch the sport.