The ( Party Conference) Carnival is over. Where are we all now?

The end of the Conservative Party Conference on Wednesday marked the end of this season , another parliamentary break between the brief return of most MPs from the summer hols and the start of the autumn term session proper. It all began with the shadow Labour Party, alias the TUC,meeting for their miserabalist few days of class warfare and boss-baiting and hating, moved through the LibDems self entramelling gathering in Brighton and then on to the launch of New Ed in rainswept Manchester and finally Dave's response to it all in Birmingham.

The slab faced TUC and the dancing in the daisies LibDems have already largely been forgotten, if they were ever remembered. They had some similarities, embracing as they did class war heavy (TUC) and class war lite (LibDems) . The LibDems come across as nicer but in reality are barely less intolerant of anything contrary to or questioning of their tangled and self-strangling roots in illiberalism curiously peddled as liberalism. Many of their delegates seemed to see a permanent role as a component of coalitions , preferably of the left. This capitalises on the possibility that most of the uncommitted electorate would rather vote "none of the above" if offered the option.

In Manchester Ed did well in establishing a sort of weird credibility that he could, just could, be a possible future Prime Minister . Of the three main party leaders he made the most upward and forward progress. A week ago it looked as if that might set Dave an almost unanswerable problem, but in fact he handled the situation well and in the only way he could. He doesn't do evangelical peppered with photo op  pictures of glistening eyes, outstretched arms and raised head. That's all for the better as the stomach soon begins to churn if faced with too many of those. He told it straight; "We are in the poo, more poo than we had dared imagine when we took over from the 2 Eds and their master, Gordon, and it's going to take a while longer to sort it, but sort it we will." Sub themes were that he wasn't into class warfare but would prefer things which may seem to be restricted to the "privileged" to be available to all. Thus the local sink comp should be as good as Eton. No shortage of aspiration then.

Now as the dust settles, what were the main takeways from these gatherings?

First of all they have become a series of pre-vetted and pre-scripted corporate style presentations and are the duller for that. As result much public interest in them has gone and most people see only the few highlight clips on the early evening and 10 o'clock national TV news programmes.

The big thing though was that none of the three party leaders came across as inhabitants of planet earth. None seem capable of normal conversation or empathy. All fail the simple test of "Could they really sit in a pub/cafe/train or bus (would they be there in the first place?) and have a real and comfortable, enquiring, non patronising or lecturing conversation with whoever they sat down next to?" or "Would you enjoy a relaxed hour or two with them anywhere at any time of the day just chatting about life, realities, ideas or would they even have any real interest in so doing?" The answers have to be "No". They are just not , despite their differences,the sort of people most would really enjoy spending time with. None of them has shown one iota of a "wow" factor , nor do any go anywhere near producing a "I'll follow that person" response. There was and is not one iota of charisma or sign of good old fashioned leadership ability between them.  At the conferences there was no big vision but a lot of divisive "Yah boo" stuff about wealth and class.  That gets boring. There was no willingness to accept social realities,-eg  that there are many who do milk the welfare system which in its present form is unaffordable anyway or that tax dodging isn't the preserve of the rich and wealth is not a sin. There are many well off people who do pay vast amounts of taxes, do good things and are worthy job-creating citizens. There are also millions of less well off people who do work hard for small rewards who resent carrying the freeloaders about which politicians, unions and councils tend to be in denial.

To cap it all, none of the Big Three display any credible warmth or humour. To most they just aren't likeable people. There's little trust either.

The danger of this disconnect between leading politicians and their electorate is a continuing lessening of general interest in politics. This in turn can only impact on the quality of parliamentary candidates, already unimpressive in some cases. That has serious implications for a robust British democracy.

That leaves the door wide open for someone to seize the moment ,walk confidently and cheerfully onto the stage, sweep all the rubbish, indecision and prevarication aside ,talk plain interesting and even entertaining English , ram home a few truths and run off with the ball.
Regardless of other possible perceived flaws, the chances are enough of the the voters would say "Yes,- lead us!"

Hello Boris? Never say never.

Health Warning: Mitt ventures into Foreign Policy.

Mr Romney, not well known for his knowledge,experience of or travels in the world outside the USA has broken cover and spoken on his foreign policy, something of little or zero interest to his domestic audience . Having said that, the general message that the country will "kick ass" (more or less any ass will do as world geography, politics or history is not a strong point in most American schools) is always a nice goodie to throw into any electioneering speech on how the nation will hold its head high in any given future.

His proposal is simple. "America will get more involved in the Middle East".

Head for the shelters everyone.

All to play for in Birmingham: The UK's Party Conference Season moves into final week.

We've had the LibDems in windswept, rainswept Brighton two weeks ago, Old Labour in Manchester for what must have seemed a very long time (though for the diehards and union carthorses 5 days of vitriol and class war maybe isn't enough?) to anyone with active brain cells and any feeling at all in their rear ends. This week it is the turn of the Tories to gather in Birmingham. Any shindig that starts on a chilly grey autumnal Sunday afternoon, the nadir of any week to many, can only improve. Probably they all did once the attendees had forgotten they would rather be somewhere else , moved their mental location to somewhere off the face of the planet and settled down to the serious business of heavy drinking and "networking", the latter taken very seriously by some. To capitalise on this fact of life the appropriate washroom vending machines will have been  kept well stocked throughout.

The choice of venues is always significant. For the LibDems, Brighton, just 60 minutes from London by eco train, once doyen of the seaside resorts and by far the most acceptable to the socially aware and liberally  minded citizens of the capital, is a natural.  There's the backdrop of a grey sea, a broken down pier but an everlasting hope of revival being just around the corner. When the conference hall became just too dull  there were plenty of good whinging, plotting or just "networking" pubs just around the corner .For Labour there is a vintage grey afternoon's afternoon experience to be had in post industrial revolution Manchester. While there is plenty of brass in and around the city , there is also a died in the wool hard core of socialism , a history of "struggle" and a conviction that all ills stem from a certain Margaret Thatcher. It is a city where Tory canvassers may as well not bother to tread, so very few do.  A great place to gather in a converted disused railway station and ,like it, recall glories past before moving on to the future. In Labour's case this is to be about "One Nation" a worthy slogan theoretically all inclusive. But wait a moment, this is a Labour conference, not a "we love everybody " session. They don't . Most of those in the hall are included in the deadly embrace but many, many, others are not. The class enemies of the (always filthy) rich, the middle classes, Tories and countless others are definately not "One Nation". Indeed they'd better watch out as the Peoples' Utopia rolls its tumbrils in. Ed got away with it pretty well unchallenged though.


The Conservatives chose their progressive northern outpost of Birmingham. To many of them it is "the North". They lack a concept of "Midlands" and beyond this city memories of junior school maps begin to fade into "Here be Savages" territory.  To go there invokes a feeling of slight risk, something to be mentioned with modest pride over dinner parties. One has gone over the northern rim of the Cotswolds and descended into more dangerous territory. Making the journey shows though that one isn't just an inner M25 southerner.It's good for the soul. If all goes wrong it's only a short drive back to Chipping Norton, Cotswold cottages or a dash down the M1 back to the comforting sign "Watford-1 mile" and that warm, comforting ,"We're nearly home" feeling.

The LibDems in Brighton seemed to just come and go. Did it actually happen? Allegedly they gathered. Vince said his bit about not bidding for the leadership, heaven forbid, but if on the other had he were by popular demand press ganged and propelled towards the chair , well far be it for him to go against the wishes of the masses etc etc. No surprise there. Typical of general LiDem mental circuitry problems was their debate on airport capacity in the south east ( for which one may as well read "the world"). You can join the thought process almost anywhere on the cycle/circle but once you're into it there's no possibility of a conclusion.  It goes something like: " We don't like Heathrow/flying at all/travelling at all/using fuel at all/.........We think Heathrow must close.........There can't be any additional runways....We could build a new airport somewhere else but it mustn't have more runways.........It mustn't be near anywhere, keep anyone awake, destroy the countryside, annoy people living in big towns,adversely affect birds, newts, wildflife... It mustn't need new roads or railways.............Oh..........................! Is that the bell for lunch? Apply the same formula and attendant list of "no gos" and you get an idea of the problem facing the party in hacking its way through an everlasting jungle of undergrowth and impossibility.

Then came Manchester. After dreary Brighton the media perked up at the prospect of a much more red and red meat occasion . Love of the Tories is fading so here was an opportunity for a relaunch of something, but what? It all started off with the chief financiers and holders of the 50% block vote, the legacy unions, reminding "Conference" that they remain the unsmiling boss. That's democracy for you. Nice people. There's not quite a stated "We know where you live" but one feels that's never far from the surface. Labour meetings may be a love-in for the faithful and the old party dynasties and families but for anyone their bouncers would keep or throw out there is no love at all. In a land where all sorts of expressions of hatred are actually illegal ,this is the only party where actual hatred of other groups is spoken of not only amongst the attendees but from the stage too. Ed came over strongly and very cleverly with his hijacked Disraelian  "One Nation" wraparound theme, something which the Tories inexplicably lack. He hit several sitting ducks as well as using favoured and highly effective dogwhistles. The Tories' vulnerabilities include social elitisim due to many of its leadership having similar top public school , Oxbridge and wealth credentials as well as questions about determination, competance,clarity, correctness of objectives  and tactics plus the ability to actually get things done. Miliband hit them all. The media liked it. Here at last is a chance of a frisky political winter after a dull summer of holidays, Olympics and a feeling of general well being,- not the sort of stuff that sells papers. This is similar to the way they suddenly all lionsied Nick Clegg after the "I agree with Nick" TV debates before the May 2010 General Election.  Ten years earlier the Millenium Dome and celebrations were slagged off and panned after the press queued ,neglected  and champagnee deficient, at Stratford tube station on the night of 31st December 1999 . This week they almost universally and uncritically praised Ed's comeback kid performance to the skies. In so doing they chose to ignore the real huge divisiveness of what he said . They also skated over the almost total lack of any clues as to whether he actually had one about what to do if elected to office in 2015. The herd behaviour and lack of sanguine analysis is dismal. An old style editor or old fashioned university tutor would have sent their work back annotated-"No depth. Do it again".

Much of all this jumping about is aimed to raise the bar for Cameron's performances in Birmingham this week. The Tories didn't see Ed's success and rehabilitation coming. One has to ask why they failed so abjectly and whether they have the right sort of people scanning the 360 degree horizon . They seem to be no match for the Press wolves who are lying in wait, ambush even, and looking forward to a feast. It looks as if some P45s in Tory HQ would be in order.

The Conservative run up to Birmingham has not been impressive. They do not look well co-ordinated, disciplined or together. Why the banana skins of a Minister, ten days into his job, uttering non approved views about changes to the abortion law,the various disagreements and fiascos in the Ministry of Transport? All these things give credance to at least those Labour shrieks about managerial competance and a shambles. How can a party, up against it in the polls, come out of a long summer break rocking about so badly? We've said it before but it's time for the top to get a grip on it all, and to sort out the party machinery and its people.

There is every likelihood that the conclusion at the end of the conference season will be that Ed was the winner, Dave didn't hack it and Nick,- well what happened in Brighton? The media objective will be to rack up the idea that the 2015 election, still 2 and a half years away, is game on and Ed M the likely next PM. If this took root  it would lead to 2+ years of artificially generated US-style hype .Apart from being tedious this could be counter productive. We might all get heartily fed up with it, especially with the institutionally left-leaning BBC peddling its wares .That's not good for political debate or democracy.

All to play for in Birmingham then. Twiga will be munching on it. Maybe a thorn tree would be nicer.

Survey sets London's men a poser.

The Evening Standard reports today that a survey reveals that a survey into obeisity amongst London's men says that a third are unable to see their own genitals. Does that mean they are too large or too small?  

Labour Conference theme: "Rebuilding Britain"..........

...........a bold proposition festooned around the Manchester conference centre this week.

Putting aside the uneasy feeling that we might hear more about taking Britain apart , especially bankers and  the wealthy who are obviously all evil, don't pay taxes and don't deserve their money unless they won it on a talent show or are footballers, this headline surely invites the retort :"Who wrecked it" in the first place. The stock answer from the main perpetrators will be the usual "Bankers, Lehman Bros " etc but however much they duck or deny the issue the reality is that UK plc was already in dead trouble before the banking crisis simply because since prudence was forsaken in 2000, Brown and Blair, had been on a massive binge for which they and their succesors remain largely unrepentant.

A new opportunity now opens up for the Conservatives to pick up a similar but different ball labelled "Redesign Britain" . Ed Balls' promised root and branch spending review were he to get into power opens the way to this far more than it does to rebuilding something that in many ways wasn't working very well anyway. As  union-entramelled Ed Miliband doesn't look like picking that one up, the way is clear for Cameron & Co to say (silently) "Thanks Ed " and regain the initiative.

Will they? Won't they? Come on Dave. Time to revitalise the troops and lead a new "Get a Grip" version of his party into real thinking.......and action. There is a nation of bored, distrustful (of all politicians) and sceptical voters out there waiting for someone to pick up this sort of ball and run forwards, not backwards as Miliband Minor promises.

Ed Balls grabs the agenda by the...........

With this weekend's Labour Party delegates limbering up for their outing to Manchester, Ed Balls, Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Leader of the Opposition (Yes, other Ed there is one ) has decisively laid out his stall.

Far from the Old Labour and unions' desire to pledge to abandon cuts and to return to a life of profligate borrowing and spending , Mr Balls has broken cover and declared that he intends to go into the 2015 election committed to a "ruthless" approach to public spending, to conduct a root and branch review of what is spent and how from the bottom up as opposed to the historic  pruning across across all departments with all apart from a handful of protected ones sharing the pain regardless of their need and effectiveness. He promises that he will "examine every penny" spent and will "face harsh truth" .This is a politically brilliant manoeuvre It heads forms a powerful and attractive agenda and is exactly what the coalition (ie Tories) should have done on day 1 in May 2010. It now heads off any similar initiative by them of at the pass. Mr Balls has got there first and is waiting for them. Across the board cutting has been a feature of both government and private businesses. It is always a mistake as it means that the lean and efficient suffer more than the inefficient and numerically bloated.  Bad behaviours are seen to be rewarded and even prudent in terms of corporate empires. Unimportant activites are treated in the same way as the important or vital . The customer is made to share the pain of the staff , quality is made to take its share of the cuts and so on so that at least all empoyees and the unions can feel that it is "fair". It is actually both stupid and unfair and longer term threatens  to bring down the whole business or government department.

What Mr Balls has recognised,-as intelligent and clear thinking politicians of all parties, civil servants and business people should have done long ago ,-is that a review of  the design and costs of activity is done from the bottom up with a clean sheet of paper there will  be a very different conclusion of what is possible and at what price than if it is doine top down on a  "fair to all" cost reduction/trimming basis. That is why Britain's new car industry, based on Japanese systems and automation ,has succeeded while the old one has died. The same is evident in the success and growth  of low cost airlines against the largely stagnant or declining old fashioned legacy bretheren with all their historic baggage. It's common in a whole range of businesses crying out for reform  and modernisation. A new start is much easier than reshaping an old organisation. The Labour Party itself has recent and ongoing experience of that reality.

Full marks then to the unlikely persona of Mr Balls for saying loud and clear that he would have to continue with the Tory cuts in a post 2015 Labour government and , much more important and revolutionary, will carry out this comprehensive review within a year.(Plse note this Dave, -you have just given your urgent review of just one subject -airport capacity,- THREE years to report back). With this move he is moving out of the minutiae of  piecemeal political wrangling and posturing into big sky thinking.

It's a very clever move. Why? Why now,- just ahead of both the Labour and Conservative Party Conferences?

First the Labour Conference. There it is hoped to begin the party's financial rehabilitation with the voters. Less of these than are given credit for it are actually stupid. Most realise that there have to be cuts, though not of course directly affecting themselves, who and wherever they are. Labour's continuing state of denial or at least delay are not going to get these peoples' votes and Ed Balls is recognising this. He is also recognising this as being a very good moment to start opening a visible gap between himself and the man who has the party leadership role he clearly wants. Ed Miliband owes his successful electoral fratricide to the unions. They are making it clear that they expect their pound or two of flesh. The GMB leadership in a pre Conference statement has said that Labour is out of touch with its historic (old fashioned) working class roots -ie turn away from any remaining New Labour fancy new friends . They are urging  Miliband , who will be in his almost constant mournful sharing everyone's pain mode and using the word "fairness" at ever turn next week. That will give Miliband a huge problem and unless he finds a source of new courage he will end up looking like a defecit denier while Ed Balls walks away with praise for tough love and facing the realities. Balls was always going to start turning the screw sometime before the election and it looks as if he has decided that the time is just about right to start now. If Miliband's ratings don't improve within the next year, there would just be time for a leadership contest and party recovery from that before the May 2015 General Election. Good thinking, strategy and tactics by Mr Balls.

Secondly why not kill two birds with one stone? By pinching what should be a Tory agenda just before the Tory Conference in ten days time, Mr Balls has walked off with what should be their ball. If they then promise to do something similar they will appear to be adopting a Labour initiative and Labour will capitalise on that by asking where the ideas of their own are. The Shadow Chancellor has caught the Conservative Party strategists (where are they?) have been caught very flat footed here and to be sure he is not one to resist all oportunities to rub their faces in it over the next two years.

Finally, while the other Ed yesterday again dived into the cornflakes, and surfaced with trademark miserabalist hangdog expression having found a new adversary in the (private)  pension funds and come up promising to share our pain and fight them to the etc etc......,Mr Balls has avoided such graunchy, heard-it-all-before negative stuff and gone for the big issue, another marker of clear blue water between the two men.

Good stuffing all round by Mr Balls. Game on.



   

Twerpspeak and Fudgespeak of the day. Stand up Andrew Mitchell and David Cameron.

How could a 21st century politician say it?  Probably one didn't,- it was a man of the 20th century and one from pretty early on  in it to boot.

Andrew Mitchell, new Government Chief Whip, is alleged to have called a policeman acting in the course of duty a "pleb" and according to one newspaper have advised him that he needed to "learn his f------ place".
If he did indeed say that firstly he is labelling himself as the ultimate vision of a Tory out of touch twerp, something which will delight the Labour Party always on the lookout for anything about class to exploit, and secondly it is a piece of advice he should address to himself,- and do something about it.

David Cameron's initial teflonesque comments that such an utterance was "wrong" started off on the right track and then dived into the awful all purpose hand wringing  fudgespeak of "appropriateness" by adding that it was "not appropriate". Maybe Eton's English department needs a bit of help in clarity and brevity from Lord Sugar. "You're fired " would have been much more appropriate. It would also demonstrated  firm,swift and unswerving resolve, three things the party greatly needs at this moment.

Mr Cameron could also do with a bit of that ancient piece tough love public school advice: "Get a grip man" and then do the necessary........ " Mitchell, you're fired".