Let's put a bit more flesh on our two brief Brexit posts earlier today.
When David Cameron was doorstepped by his car and asked if he still thought the Brexit Referendum was the right thing to have done he replied that he had to go with it because he had promised one in the 2015 General Election campaign. Dave's promise is Dave's promise unless it's the one to stay around and manage whatever the Referendum indicated.
His aim was to stop forty plus years of bickering and divides within the Tory party by having a national vote. He was confident this would demonstrate that the nation was substantially in favour of remaining in the EU so there was no point in arguing about it within the party. In depth surveys either by the party of the government would have shown that the reality was, and always had been, more or less a 50/50 split both across parties and many regions especially outside the London bubble.
He was confident that he would win and even told his EU colleagues that he was " a winner" and would. Not a great negotiating position when asking for concessions which would keep the Brexiteers at bay. Further "As any fule kno" (thankyou Molesworth) if you're about to run a contest, especially one of major constitutional importance,it's a good idea to give yourself the best possible chance of winning. The constitutions of almost any social club require at least a 60/40 majority for any change. Not Dave though. He promised he would do whatever the majority, however small, wanted. He also said that he would stay and manage the outcome whichever it was.
Constitutionally the promise to action the Referendum's result, by however slender a majority , had no validity. He did not have to follow it. The way was open on the fateful morning to say "That's too close to call. We will go away and think about what to do about it" (ie not a lot). Instead, having it is said expressed reluctance to stick around and do the hard work, he threw in the towel pretty much as soon as he'd had time to write a little speech and and get the Mrs and kids in front of the cameras outside number 10. There was no need for that throwing of the toys into a corner. Sensibly he would have dusted himself down, taken a few deep breaths and maybe a few days chilling in the Cotswolds and then gone back to the EU and said "Look, that didn't go the way any of us wanted. What can we all do to quieten things down ? " He failed to do anything like that and threw away any legacy other than the reputation as the man who stuffed up right royally. He quit at the moment when he was most needed to steady the ship. Not a great demonstration of a public service ethic. He did though promise to remain an MP and represent his constituents . That one lasted just a few months before he again quit in favour of the pressure of life in a new build shepherd's hut where he could write his memoires. Sensibly they haven't appeared yet but if he's stuck for a title a lot of people have suggestions.
So where are we now and what have we learned?
- Any major constitutional change requires a government with a strong majority and a single vision of what it is trying to achieve. A minority government without one and total unity of purpose has no chance.
- Ideally , in case there are dissenters -,there is at last some cross party support. Right now the Conservative Party has none.
What next? The Conservatives replacing Mrs May as leader would leave them no better off than they are now. No Brexit deal anyone could put forward would satisfy the Brexiteers, the Remainers and several different factions in between. No deal is therefore likely to get through the Commons. Only one to remain would. The majority of MPs are pro -Remain anyway. It looks likely therefore that by one means or another Brexit will be ditched, especially as the ECJ on Monday ruled that Article 50 can be revoked at any time up to March 29th .Two and a half years of preoccupation with Brexit and lack of time, energy and will to deal with a host of other pressing issues will be over. The Conservative Party will be divided and exhausted. It will be almost unmarketable to the electorate leaving the way open to what in normal circumstances be the almost equally unelectable Marxixt led Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn is playing a very clever and currently quiet hand. In private he must be licking his chops. The long suffering electorate looks like suffering some more.
