Greece,- Let nature take its course.

The convolutions going on in Europe over a possible Greek Eurozone exit are something to behold. They display many of the worst features of the zone and the EU straitjackets and the consequences of past misdeeds, distortions of figures and political manipulation. Greece never really qualified to join the Euro in 1981 It was always a fix .That was pretty public knowledge but blind eyes were turned and the situation massaged to even get them on board. On the part of France in particular the measures were proactive rather than passive.

Now the chickens have come home to roost. Build anything, a house, a business, a state on foundations of sand or none at all. Sooner or later it will collapse or cost a fortune in artificial respiration to keep going. Even then it will almost always eventually collapse at a much greater cost than if it had been sorted out in the first place..

 Right now the ever righteous Mr Junker complains of having been betrayed. At the same time he says the door is still open for more negotiations. The only message he is giving is that the Euro club are desperate to avoid Greece dropping the currency or even out of the Union. This isn't because the Euro or EU  love Greece. It's because they are terrified of the loss of face occasioned by the admission that a one size fits and works all northern and southern Europe states alike. It never could and the sensible kept well clear.  The size, economies, activities, national temperements and needs of the member states vary enormously. Their inability under the Euro to do anything with their currencies to even out the effects of diversity out leaves them hamstrung.

Also much feared in monolithic Brussels is the idea that even one defection from the Eurozone might lead other states to question the whole operation of the EU itself. Britain is already doing that although rather cackhandedly by positioning its demands for as being for its own benefit rather than for all the members of the creaking, centralising ,going nowhere, hugely expensive ,self serving and barely democratic institution.

One can understand the Greeks still thinking that Mr Junker and friends will blink first. They usually do if they see their own interests and pedestals threatened.

There should be no further discussions. Ireland and Portugal in particular were forced to swallow the austerity medicine ,took the pain and came out of their criseas well.  They and others would  be rightfully indignant if Greece got of its self made hook. If Greece insists on its course of rejecting economic reforms, aka austerity, and claiming it can get its accounts straight by soaking the rich and penalising business then it should be allowed to do so and let go. Despite all the howls about serious consequences for all, nobody knows what the effects will be. The only way to find out must be to let nature take its course and manage the downsides as they appear. This is by far the most practical and best medium and long term solution and almost certainly the cheapest. It will also highlight the fact that the only people who can get Greece back on the road are the Greeks.

Footnote: The biggest question around a Greek exit from the currency and/or the EU is how much it would turn the country's left wing government to a mischievous Russia and what that would really mean.

The week so far...................

First up has to be yesterdays lovely pictures of Greece's smiling Prime Minister with the European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker's arm extended warmly around his shoulder. What great body language. "We'll sort out something for you my boy" it says. Unlikely to see David Cameron get quite the same sort of warmth but we can live in hope. If keeping Greece in the Eurozone, for which it was never really financially eligible and in the EU is so important, how much more so is it for Mr Junker and friends to keep the UK in the EU? We should never forget that the unlamented Gordon Brown did the country one enormous favour when he rejected Tony Blair's wild enthusiasm for the UK adopting the Euro and thereby becoming welded into this disastrous one size fits Germany straitjacket. At least he saw where that one was coming from.

Talking of the relics of the 1997-2010 Labour dynasty it is no surprise to see that Lord (There's a true socialist title for you,- once they've tasted the good claret) Mandelson was beaten into third place in the election for the Chancellorship of Manchester University. He and his co-loser Sir Mark Elder a locally distinguished musician, will though be heartened by the Times report that Dame Nancy Rothwell, the President and Vice Chancellor has said that "other prestigious roles" are being sought for them. One has to ask why? Is the university not doing perfectly well without them ? Why create new roles just because you've got a couple of nice "terribly influential" celebs hanging about? Are they short of a crust or prestige so need new pedestals ? Even if they were why should Manchester University come to their aid, especially if it costs them any money? It all sounds a bit luvvie. Clearly anybody to do with this circle to have a title anyway and that's another growing British social problem worth a study of its own.

Also looking a bit luvvie is Richmond's golden boy MP Zac Goldsmith's declaration today that he will be running for the Tory nomination for Mayor of London. While current incumbent Boris, complete with an Eton and Oxford background, has a great man of the people touch and above all is seen as fun,  Goldsmith, is different. He is undoubtedly popular in Tory quarters especially the Richmond sort, but is very much the man of the gilded cage and  may struggle to find common ground with swathes of other Londoners. He's not exactly the sort of man you might expect to possibly bump into in the greasy spoon, newsagents ,on the bus or train whereas with Boris, perhaps it's unlikely in reality but you feel you just might and its the impression that counts.

That reminds us that Sir Harold Davies is in the next few weeks,- probably as close to Parliament breaking up for the long hols as possible,- due to reveal his recommendations on new runways for southern England. This is a tough one for an establishment man conscious of what is asked of him. We mean what is really asked of him .The first thing ,- and this bit was utterly clear,- was the absurd demand by the last government three years ago that he should not report before the May 2015 General Election.So began the longest essay in history. Three hours should have been enough, or three weeks in non exam conditions. Everyone knows the best answer for UK Plc is Heathrow and even better for both Heathrow and Gatwick so that a) There really is enough capacity and b) The two airports can slug it out competitively for growth. Everyone also knows that the recommendation will most likely be a fudge and unsatisfactory to everybody. The need for more runway slots is immediate,- or rather at least ten years ago. The report is more likely to talk about ten years hence,- which is about the earliest we could expect actual concrete anyway,- and point towards Gatwick while leaving the options open to review Heathrow again " in the long term" . That's to say to do absolutely nothing about it within the lifetime of most people now on the planet. Although it is a national issue and the UK has a population of 63.8 million and an electorate of 46.1 million the decision could rest on just three inside the M25 west London people the Prime Minister doesn't want to upset and who might cause him grief. Such is sometimes the reality of democracy. Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson and Justine Greening all west London MPs. A nonsense? Of course. It would never have come to this if it hadn't been for Cameron's wobbly knees before the 2010 General Election. Under Lord Adonis as Minister for Transport Heathrow was almost ready to start digging. Cameron thought that the only way to secure West London constituencies was to say no to Heathrow expansion. He was wrong as he would have won the seats anyway without that commitment. Ever since he has been squirming on his self made rack. Now is the time to take command and tell the recalcitrants to get off the runway but when push comes to shove he's not very good at that.

Down in the Med another storm is brewing. Her Majesty's Royal Navy and others are fishing "refugees" out of the water in ever increasing numbers. That's right and fine but instead of landing them back in North Africa they being transported to Italy where nobody is really clear or sure about what should happen next. For the vast majority who are economic migrants rather than escapees from the real Syrian and allied Middle East conflicts the answer should be simple quick flight home , the only place from which applications can be considered. The almost universal underlying belief is that this is unlikely and eventually they will be able to move northwards to the desired goals of  the more welfare generous countries. Once established they would expect to be able to bring in their, often large, families. This is incentivising the traffickers to step up their efforts. They now know that they barely need to equip their boats with engines but just push them off the Libyan coast and the passengers will be taken care of. There is a real possibility of not millions but tens of millions heading north in a short space of time. European heads fail to grasp this and instead talk for ever about "desperate people". They are stuck in idealistic quasi liberal sand refusing to think through the consequences and doing nothing concrete while a real human crisis builds. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has given the advice one might expect. Inevitably he has his human rights critics at home and abroad but his policy of making it absolutely clear that the vast majority of the boat economic migrants will never be able to settle in Australia is working. This is probably the only recipe that will. It might seem tough but it means that nobody setting of on these often hazardous and expensive journeys is under any illusions that their journeys will almost certainly lead right back home after a lot of discomfort along the way. If Europe is prepared to be changed utterly, ,impoverished and overwhelmed by numbers then its present policy is fine. If not, not. The whole thing seems to be way beyond most EU politicians, and hey, its nearly hols time in Brussels too.

That's the week so far. And it's only Tuesday.