Friday, 29 June 2012

Quick roundup on the week.

 Barclays , along with any similar miscreants, should be hung, drawn and quartered.  That is the view of many. Diamond , whether he likes it or not, must as CEO carry the can for the culture and behaviour of his entire organisation. The same responsibily should extend downwards through all layers of management and the culpable should be barred from the industry for  a long time, if not for life. No "ifs". No "buts" and no compensation for loss of job and career. Unfortunately it is unlikely that the laws to enforce that exist.

Syria,- A bloody mess nearly as big as Barclays. The west would like to back the good guys but can't spot who they are other than the poor suffering genuinely innocent civilians caught in multiple crossfires and nobody is representing them. Assad is definately a bad guy but who are the really good, or even moderately good ones? With Iran,-or I-Ran if you are an American,- furiously stirring all kinds of pots and mischief and the west at least complicit in supplying the next 20 years worth of weapons to all who claim to be anti-Assad, it's going to get bloodier still. Stepping in to part several factions and layers of combatants risks temporarily uniting them, Afganistan style, to see off the foreigners before returning to their internecine domestic butchery. Deciding what to do for the least worst is an incredibly tough call . That's why there is a lot of talk but no decisions.

The week's award for heroism has to go to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth 2 and Prince Philip, not so much for usefully shaking the hand of former adversaries but more potentially lethally travelling through the streets of Belfast in a completely open car. They did the same two days after 7/7 when they drove at walking pace down the Mall standing in an open Landrover.  That is personal bravery and heroism on a magnificent scale. Imagine most Presidents considering taking that sort of risk.

On the other  regal hand, the issue new instructions on royal etiquette requiring the future Queen Kate , whenever not accompanied by her husband , to curtsy to the Princesses Eugenie and Beatrice was poorly judged whatever the likely urgings of Princes Charles and Andrew, great believers in Louis XIV type notions of the superiority of "the blood royal" over all others. This sort of thing risks making Battenbergs look like fruit cakes.

Boris Bike attendants: These are the latest in the long line of Crow and McClusky's lads and lasses to get an Olympic bonus in addition to any overtime they would get anyway. The bus companies should hold out but probably won't. What are the staff normally paid for? To drive empty buses? Is anything on top of that hardship and extra work? TfL and many rail companies caved in to Olympian demands with little fight and unfortunately paved the way to the Boris Bikers getting their bung. Will they or their bikes be anywhere near the Olympics? No. And that should have been the answer.

Europe: It's always dangerous for UK's sovereign rights when tough talking but knees wobbling Dave gets anywhere near a gathering of EU leaders. Especially any time when the  IMF's fragrant and convincing ("just another billion or two Dave, people will think so much more of you") Christine is about,- or even in her office. En route to this week's session he fairly pointlessly bunged another £1 point something billion into the Eurofan's "Penny for the Rumphy collection" or highly unspecific growth fund. Do we hear gurgle, gurgle down the drain again? Where and when will Dave's largesse stop?  When will he learn to utter, and mean, the word "No". Time for a Negotiating Skills level 1 course.  Unfortunately few of our current political leaders (OK, I'm being flattering using that word here but it is the end of the week) have ever worked outside politics, managed anything, planned anything, financed anything or indeed led any thing or people. "Problem lah" as the Singaporeans and Malaysians would say.

Clegg: Looks as miserable as sin all the time. That's despite, thanks to the temporary need for a coalition, having reached a reached a rank hitherto beyond his wildest dreams. Maybe someone should do him a favour.

Ed Miliband: Had a good day out on Thursday with his best mates (until someone else will serve them better) , sponsors and leadership vote providers, the brothers of Unite at their annual whinge-in. He is less comfortable around real brothers. He urged the assembled downtrodden  not to strike during the Olympics but to "get both parties around a table" . Getting round a table is Unionspeak for "the employers must give in to all our demands". Ed knows this of course but will never let on because it were the bruvers who defied the other democratic constituents in the Labour leadership contest and handed him the job. They also provide the readies to keep him and the whole Labour apparatus in business. He should remember they don't do it out of charity or love for him or anyone else. Beware lean and hungry looks Ed.

Ed Balls: What can we say? Presumably another day peddling "borrow and spend".

May the world sleep in peace this weekend,-or maybe not. The lions will be on the prowl everywhere.

Thursday, 14 June 2012

Euro Woes.-The design characteristics of overstressed structures and some simple answers.


The EU/Euro saga doesn't get any better. After weeks of the Spanish Government basking in denial of any financial problems it was finally admitted that actually there was one,- and a big one.

The quick solution wasn't a bailout.Oh no. It wasn't like Ireland's or Greece's where hair shirts have been prescribed. No, this was entirely different. The banks, not the government needed a bung and all would be well. People would stop demanding exorbitant rates for lending to the country and life could proceed without the onerous demands for good financial behaviour and austerity imposed on the others in return for the cash.  That was entirely fair,- as the Irish and Greeks would reasonably understand of course. It wasn't a bailout so strict conditions wouldn't be needed.

Anyone who bought all that would need their head, not to mention their finances -examined. Within a day or two the world had said "So what?" Spain's borrowing rate soared to 6.5%  and now to a disastrous 7% today. The 100 billion Euro non-bailout has been rendered ineffectual,-i.e. a waste of otherwise productive money which could have been going  into projects and expenditure to get national economies going, take people off handouts and make them good taxpayers once again. Except in Greece of course where it seems that many never got round to paying taxes in the first place.

So why does this circus of throwing good money after bad keep going on?

It's largely down to the noisy and remarkably effective argument that if this one and the next and the next aren't saved from going down the plug or the terrible fate of having to leave the Eurozone, the whole cardhouse will collapse, the Euro will suffer and take with it all EU economies, Eurozone or not. That, they say, will knock on to a financial meltdown for the rest of they world. Hmm. The risk is much greater if money continues to be thrown uselessly on the fire. Remember the lessons of trying to defend national currencies against devaluation. The money markets aren't stupid, can see there will be a point where further support is unaffordable so they bring on the moment and make it inevitable by betting against the soon-to-be loser. (And do very nicely out of it thankyou, but that's real life).

OK,-then what's the real underlying problem? Why does it keep coming back like a snuffed out party candle?

Again simple.  Both the EU and, even more, the Euro are artifical  structures. These when stretched and stressed beyond their original or sensible design limitation will fail. Stiffen them up by slapping on more steel, concrete or whatever and they will just become heavier and more inefficient . The cost of keeping the structure going, its eventual failure or both will be even worse. Ask any civil engineer. That's what happens.

Taking the EU first, right from the start the objective at the heart (Germany and hitherto France) of the "European project" has been the creation of a barely democratic European superstate.  It was top down and imposed by a small political elite who will not readily give up their heady power.  A sort of United States of Europe. Only it isn't. The USA was created bottom up by disparate groups of refugees arriving with the united aim of securing a better life away from the restrictions, persecution (often religious) and general unpleasantness or simple lack of opportunities wherever they left behind. They wanted to be in America and start a new life. To faciliate this they wiped out most of the people already living there but that's another story. The newcomers wanted to be joined together as Americans first even if they retained some aspects of their home cultures. Even then the emergence of a single federal state wasn't easy and took a bloody civil war.

The EU is not an America and never will be. It was created/imposed  top down as an eventual overriding superstate which would take over and subordinate a wide variety of nations, eventually reducing their sovereign parliaments to a status akin to county councils. The vast majority of the citizens didn't and don't want that imposition and have never even been asked if they do.

The difference between "natural" and "unnatural " is therefore that USA was born with the enthusiasm and support of its people whereas the EU especially in superstate form is not.

Even more "unnatural" ,the Euro was mooted as a single currency so as to make political union or a superstate essential. Its promoters knew that and were entirely cynical about it . To them the end justified their means whether "people" liked it or not. Without a single government it  is inevitable that a joint currency will fail . Each member state will have different cultures,priorities, attitudes to spending and borrowing borrowing and social structures. The actions of the profligate and lazy will threaten the prosperity of others. When the music stops the strongest, most hardworking and prudent will have to pay for the acts or omissions of their fellow members.  That's how it feels to be German right now. As an unnatural currency to bolster or hasten an unnatural superstate, the Euro was a doubtful runner from the start. It was made even more so when criteria to join it were bent so as to widen membership. Everyone knew that Greece for one never really met the criteria and yet for political expediency blind eyes were turned and it was waved through.

Now we have the predictable Barroso and others whose personal future is at stake and dislike the idea of P45s all round ,calling for yet more unity,-banking this time,- to reinforce the failing structure. They would go on for ever adding sticking plaster, sandbags or whatever it took to add to the weight and drag of the whole superstate dream/nightmare while refusing to look further into the future to see the enormous black hole awaiting.

Enough of medication, reinforcement or whatever . It's time to call it a day and let nature take its course. There will be pain but much less than if  the state of denial continues and torrents of potentially productive money are diverted to the superstate cause. Some states have to leave the Euro and some (Britain and the probably the Nordics) formally leave the superstate group to re-form into an EFTA type free trade area which is where they started.  There is no reason why the free trade arrangement should not encompass both the superstate members and the rest . Ideally it should.

The time to accept these realities is now. Given strong "Let's do it" leadership Britain could lead the breaking of this moribund mould and define this new vision of the future. Will it do it? Hard to say. Its government's recent track record of determination in the face of hard decisions and adversity is not encouraging. Even their own MPs make their knees knock. More treacle and fudge could be on the way . If so all Europeans will ultimately pay a high price.


Wednesday, 6 June 2012

"Malaysia Airlines brings joy to the nation......."

Today's Air Transport News brings this heartwarming headline to its readers. The airline has been celebrating the arrival of its first A380 and clearly going all out to wins hearts and minds.

Here's how.

In a statement attributed to the airline ATN goes on:

"Many others took the opportunity to capture themselves on Polaroid photographs with cabin crew members of Malaysia Airlines given away with compliments of the national airline."

Wow. Beat that Mr Branson.