Dave's war in fogs and sandstorms. Time to slide out.

David Cameron is the fourth recent British Prime Minister to have embarked upon a military adventure.

Only the first of these, Margaret Thatcher's swift campaign to reverse the Argentine invasion and occupation of the Falkland Islands had a clear, well defined objective understood and supported by most of the British population. It was a triumph of civilian and military logistics with a beginning, middle and an end. The arrival of the fleet back in Portsmouth, the vast majority of the troops back at their UK barracks and the RAF aircraft at their bases drew a line under the campaign itself. The ongoing support to the Falklands Government was also marked by clarity and simplicity. No religious or tribal factors complicated the picture. Success was possible and it was decisivley achieved in a relatively short time. Thatcher came out of it as a leader with excellent judgement and way beyond her rivals in courage and determination. From having just previously flagged in the opinion polls her ratings soared and she went on to easily win the next General Election.

The three subsquent adventures have been very different and left the next two sponsoring British leaders seriously damaged and a third now threatened. What's gone wrong and why aren't they national heros? Very simply these conflicts have lacked clarity throughout. Why did we go there? There was no UK popular cause and we were inconsistent in where we intervened and where we didn't. Despite claims that they made UK streets safer, they manifestly did not. They did not involve protecting or reclaiming British territory. They were not largly solo British operations and in two of them, Iraq and Afghanistan ,Britain was subserviently tagging along behind the USA. In the third the USA wisely decided to leave most of the action to the Europeans. In their absence Cameron fell over himself to sign up with two unlikely allies, Berlusconi and Sarkosy. Neither is high in UK trust, credibility or any other positive ratings.

In Iraq the initial military "shock and awe "campaign followed by the drive of the armed columns from Kuwait to Baghdad was brilliantly successful. From then on it was all downhill. The moment a US soldier draped a US flag over the head of the toppled statue of Saddam Hussein was the beginning of the descent into floundering chaos. The whole thing has been a disaster. There was no plan for what was to happen and for the basic running of the country. The rush for de-Baathification shredded all the government ministries of most of the staff who organised day to day life and provision of police and public services. The viable and fully functioning infrastructure of the cities, towns, villages, roads, railways , water supply, distribution of goods was often reduced to ruin and rubble and bombed back decades. More Iraqi civilians were killed than Saddam's highly unpleasant security forces can ever have dreamed of destroying in a hundred years. Thankyou Tony Blair . A stable and officially secular country with a largely pro-western if difficult and repressive government has been replaced by a highly unstable one which could go in any number of different directions. None of these is likely to produce the dream of a western style democracy in which MPs politely refer to each other as the Hon Member for Basra South etc. That cosy vision is simply naive. Britain has now pretty much and very quietly slid out of it while still muttering that the casualties were a worthwhile sacrifice. For whom?

Then came Afghanistan which can be labelled as both Blair's and Brown's. The British Defence Minister, John Reid, stated that it it may well be that the mission , whatever it was , would be accomplished swiftly without a drop of British blood being shed. What planet were the politicians living on? Anyone who had visited Afghanistan or even flown over it and pondered its terrain through an aircraft window could have told them that the geography, climate and geology make any form of successful territorial occupation unthinkable . Anybody with a small knowledge of history could have told them that the only things which have ever united the country's disparate groups have been either iron firm rule or the presence of a foreign army who everybody instinctively wanted to expel. The British learned that in the 19th century, the Russians in the 20th. Now the British and Americans are learning it again in the 21st. Is history that badly taught in the UK ?(Answer sadly "yes, even apparently at Eton). Had nobody in the Blair sofa circle even read Flashman? Again , the prospect of a western style democracy is almost non existent and the elimination of the Taliban is illusory. The "allies" may just about occupy territory by day but at night..............? The slide out is well under way and again it will be said that the sacrifices will have been worthwhile. Again, whose sacrifices ? For most in Britain the view will remain that the country should never have become involved anyway . Any threats to its national security (eg Al Quaeda and its franchises) should be tackled far closer to home rather than nebulously and hideously expensively at arms length in a country few British begin to understand.

When the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition replaced Labour in May 2010 it was assumed that there would be no new Middle Eastern adventures. Then suddenly there came "The Arab Spring" and an extraordinary turn of events. Immediately before this series of very different and uncordinated uprisings, protests square occupations and demonstrations Britain had been strongly represented at an arms fair in the Gulf, ready to do business with more or less all comers. The UK had long and deep relationships around the Gulf, including with Bahrain. It had also painstakingly courted the Gaddafi regime in Libya hoping to influence it and continue moving it away from its previous support of sundry terrorist movements including at one time the IRA. The Arab Spring seemed to bring a rush of adrenaline to numerous political heads and almost immediately we,- that's to say Cameron,- were in the thick of it and seemingly unable to hold ourselves back from joining in. It was an almost compulsive reactive act and certainly not one founded in wisdom or Britain's centuries of Middle East experience. The national corporate memory has it seems been lost or at best shunted into a siding as irrelvant by a new "history is bunk " generation of politicians. Maybe they never knew that we once knew and it had all become in Rumsfeld language "an unknown known".

The question now is how can the UK extricate itself from military involvement in Libya with a modicum of honour? If Cameron doesn't find a quick solution the affair could bounce into Labour's hands as a high profile example of his lack of judgement, a theme they have already been peddling on other issues especially his unfortunate employment of Coulson. We are now into the European August works shutdown. Palace of Westminster dwellers head for the hills of Tuscany, France ,Spain or if "sharing your pain" to windswept British former resorts. This year coincidentally August overlaps almost entirely with Ramadan. There could be an opportunity there for some deep burrowing and a reappearance in September saying "We're out of there. Don't know what all the fuss was about. Anyone remember?" For that to happen we don't need Liam Fox or anyone else to be going on about "supporting the Libyan people" to the end,- especially as we don't seem too clear about who the various Libyan people are or where the end is anyway. Where the various groups stand seems to be a mystery too. We stand between an August sea fog at home and sandstorms various in the Middle East. Ideal cover for a tactical retreat and a new start.

The Media and Politicians move to another Planet

The last two weeks in the life of the British media and politicians have seen a deadly dance around a pile of reports of phone hacking and alleged outrageous behaviour by The News of the World and its ultimate owners News Corp. Accusation has piled upon accusation and a wood and trees problem arisen around a number of spinoff accusations, calls for media regulation and the rest. Through the mounting sounds of rage from these two groups, both have claimed to be reflecting of course not their own views,- heaven forbid,- but those of an "outraged" British public. For those with more sensitive ears and slightly more brain capacity, the sights and sounds of opportunistic grinding axes and old score settling have been all around,- and still are.

The world faces financial disasters if the US Congress blocks the raising of the national debt limit. The Eurozone and EU face calamaties induced by their less prudent members. The unwinnable (what would victory look like? There's no clue even about that) Afghanistan adventure gropes its way to a face saving conclusion while lives are wasted almost every day. The hasty, muddled and expensive Libya intervention gets nowhere. Somali pirates in low tech, low cost skiffs have a good laugh and bask in the human rights/health and safety impotence of high tech and highly expensive western warships. Other big issues push for attention. So, again where have the salivating media been? Mostly off down the phone hacking etc alley. There is nothing the media likes more than to debate with itself. It makes them feel really good and important. Politicians for their part would love to see the press muzzled with much greater inhibitions on its ability to probe their lives for any behaviour or activities of which their constitunets might disapprove.

In the vanguard of the onslaught against the power of the Murdoch empire is the BBC. That's not surprising for an organisation which controls around 70% of the UK's TV news exposure and to whom BSkyB ,the majority share of which NewsCorp was seeking to buy, is a major and energetic competitor. That apart,the BBC has its own political stance. It sees itself as in the centre but in reality is to the left of that despite the excellent efforts by Nick Robertson on BBC 1, overall it struggles to achieve real impartiality. After all, it has its own beef with the government as it too has to take its share of public expenditure cuts. How can it therefore be really impartial? Almost every news broadcast since February 2010 has had a item about "cuts" and the angles have seldom , if ever , been enthusiastic about the concept. Hence an issue which offers not only the chance to list News Corps sins and possibly to embarrass the government is scarcely unwelcome and must draw not a few smirks within its ranks.

For other media groups, the sight of News Corp at bay is just too good a chance to miss. No wonder then that the whole issue occupies page after page and much moralistic huffing and puffing.

The politicians, just a couple of weeks away from their long summer hols when all this broke, are also on a high. The House of Commons has been notably dull of late and even the weekly Wednesday 12.00 Dave and Ed show hasn't produced a lot other than a rather overbearing Dave on one side and Ed on the other in one of his three modes, angry, hand wringingly sanctimonious or rather sadly pathetic depending on the day/hour. All this and striving for the moral high ground has caught Dave a bit flat footed and let Ed soar to new heights of righteousness. In this respect Blair,-the Tone one,- would be proud of him. Those of the LibDems (most?) who always wanted to share the illiberal socialist bed of Ed's new old Labour ,- have relished the opportunity to snuggle up to their preferred ally and enjoy the discomfort caused to the Prime Minister in particular by his unwise appointment of former "Screws" man Andy Coulson as his head of communications.

As politicians and journalists seem to occupy the same trust rating amongst the populace at around 17/18 %, this vortex of obsession with each other has been a spectacle to behold. There is real general distaste for the alleged hacking into the abducted Milly Dowler's phone which may have misled the police and could have seriously affected how the initial investigation was conducted. There is also a dislike of unwanted personal intrusion which makes its victims almost unable to live a normal life. There is no such feeling though about MPs, journalists, police, or anyone else who betray the trust of their positions or unfairly gain advantage by corrupt or simply unethical activities.

While this Westminster-centric circus has been going on, how have the rest of us been? Are we really "outraged" about it all as Ed Miliband, claiming to represent us all, would have us believe? Are those of us who are not in a tiny and immoral minority? The answer is very simply "No". The media and politicians are deluding themselves. Happily the latter, many of who seem mentally never to have left school, are off to the hills and beaches today,while most of the media people will be at least taking it in turns to do likewise until the Party Conference season in September. The rest of the population will brace itself for the real silly season of largely non-stories which will take us through to the beginning of the new term in September. In some ways we never escape at least the calendar of those pre-adulthood days. Hopefully by the time the world reassembles all this will seem like a bad dream from the past. Trust, honesty, integrity will be everywhere and scoundrels of all varieties removed from sight and replaced by much better people. That's the dream. Unfortunately the world isn't like though and other than being more suntanned and looking much more relaxed most of the old cast will be back ,unreformed and ready for a new season. In the meantime world economics may have gone down the pan, the assorted wars got nowhere and the genuinely outraged population been ignored. Twiga however will not be on hols and 360 degree surveillance of the scene from a good vantage point will continue.

The end of term at Westminster. Some jostling in the corridors, high jinks in the LibDem dorm and a warning .

Some insititutions never leave their school days far behind. Westminster and the House of Commons are amongst those as any viewer of the weekly Wednesday Prime Minister's Questions can testify. Here schoolroom behaviour is a regular feature. It is also dotted through any other major debate to which more than a handful of MPs turn up. At these the attendees are usually cosmetically clustered for TV purposes around whoever is speaking lest the viewers start questioning actual attendance records. In the case of some ,including the glowering member for Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath ,who did manage to find his way into the House and to speak today, these are particularly unimpressive. Truancy is as big a problem in the Commons as it is in the worst of schools.

In the Commons and elsewhere there is now a lot of point scoring ("I said it first, ", "No, I did") but all three parties are briefly in a weird sort of harmony cobbled together under fire in bellowing that News Corp, who have now have for the time being at least withdrawn from the BSkyB bid, should not be allowed to totally take over the company. All three, who until very recently were ostensibly friends of the now vilified organisation , attending its parties and accepting its invitations scarcely daring to be absent. Over the last few days there has been much jostling in the corridors of power and powerlessness, originally not to be the first in the queue in slag off Mr Murdoch's organisation ( "You say it then", "No you,-you thought of it") for fear that if Mr Murdoch then won out there would be all manner of unwanted consequences for he or she who cast the first stone come the runup to the next General Election . It was eventually Ed Milliband, who is at his best in moral indignation mode (The Tories try it but it just doesn't feel so real somehow) who stepped forward to much public acclaim ("His best week yet") thereby elbowing his way past Dave. Nobody heard or cared much where Nick & Co stood as they are probably out of it in 2015. Dave sounded like a man outmanoeuvred. He had allowed the moral high ground and front line huffing and puffing rights and "it was our motion" claims to go to Ed. Dave can live with that though, not just because the last ten days will have been largely forgotten when Parliament returns in the autumn from its summer hols but because today's quarry will know full well that the Conservatives ultimately have had no option but to join in the "They shall not pass" protestations once Labour, very much in line with baying public opinion , had broken cover and forced a debate for this afternoon. Although Labour have done well and appeared substantially ahead of the Tories in the vitriol and moral rectitude stakes over the last ten days ,the outcome for them at a future crucial time could be yet be a comeuppance rather than a victory. Dave should not be too pleased with himself though as he could also get an unexpected and inconvenient swipe for anatomical shrivelling in the face of fire.

One group who will feel pleased at having been able officially to be at one with Labour today,- their imagined real best friends,- on a Labour motion will be those Lib Dems (most?) who have been longing to be just that ever since the coalition with the party they most didn't like came into being in May 2010. Since that day they have only grudgingly supported those of their leaders who understood and understand that the alliance with the Tories was the only game in town and that the party has in the past thirteen months exercised more influence on policy and got more of its own agenda through than at any time in the past sixty years . These folk will end this term with a warm, sticky glow that they voted with Ed after all,-and maybe he even smiled at them. By this naive bit of self congratulation they confirm that they are still in the first form of this rough and tumble school. Political maturity is still a long way off. They will escape retribution in these heady days just before breaking up for the hols, but if they carry it on into following school/Westminster year(s) they are heading for a caning. They will get their just deserts and it will be no use blaming anyone in the media or anywhere else. They will have earned it themselves.

End of "The Screws"

For those setting out to make sure of their copy of today's last edition of The Screws, in a break from some of its glorious past it contains lots of history but no new rapes, indecent assaults, miscreant schoolmasters and the like.

Good thing it's the last weekend of the public schools' academic year.

Air Malawi continues to bleed money. Solutions sought,- and offered.

Air Malawi, historically a good quality but far, far, too small an operator based in its landlocked central African home is, according to the country's newspaper "The Nation" yet again under review after having lost about $7.1 million in 2009/10 and $ 8.3 million the previous year. That is a lot of money for a very small business and a drag on Malawi's already overburdened economy. Passenger numbers and revenue both fell, thanks probably due to the general global economy but also a chaotic and inadequate timetable lacking in any form of coherance and not even delivering a respectable common timed service between the two major domestic cities, Lilongwe and Blantyre. The report also adds that "most of the company's equipment was not operational during the year, forcing it to lease aircraft for its operations." That can't have helped either.

If Finance Minister Ken Kandodo who vows that "government will continue efforts to ensure that parastatals will deliver on the essential goods and services to Malawians efficiently and effectively " had had the opportunity to read Airnthere's 19th April item "AFRAA doesn't get it", he would have had the opportunity to get rid of the furrowed brow and of this ongoing financial drain on the Treasury with litle further ado.

To repeat what we said then, the simple solution in cases of small unprofitable and for ever uneconomic national airlines, almost invariably overburdened with historic costs is to let them go to the wall, declare open skies to all comers provided they satisfy safety requirements and let the unsubsidised private sector and foreign carriers invest in filling the gaps. The result is likely to be more frequencies, more destinations, better service and above all, no further demands on the national exchequer.

Air Malawi has long struggled to overcome its high cost past and find a new role from the time that Zimbabwe came into being as a new state replacing Rhodesia under UDI. During the days of both UDI and apartheid in South Africa , Malawi under the late President Banda carved out a unique niche for itself as a crossroads and connecting point for business moving between the various countries which had no direct links with each other. Significant numbers of politically generated passengers travelled to and through Blantyre in particular and for a number of years it had a unique twice weekly hubbing operation on Mondays and Fridays when aircraft from all of these countries arrived within an hour or so exchanged passengers and flew out again. During the rest of the week there were a series of other "useful" connections. Air Malawi was also busy flying mine workers to and from South Africa until Banda suddenly halted the business following the crash of a South African Wenela owned DC4 departing Botswana thanks to being erroneously filled with jet rather than piston fuel. At the same time the airline had for a short time gone long haul with the purchase of a surplus VC10 from British Caledonian in the mistaken belief that the London route, profitable for a weekly BA service, could be the same for them despite this trebling route capacity at a stroke. The VC10 was an impressive looking and sounding aircraft but it gobbled both fuel and money at a massive rate especially when flying with low loads. Eventually a seemingly insoluable problem with a centre fuel tank leak and the need for a major overhaul grounded it and a brief flirtation with the idea of replacing it with a brand new $80 million or so Lockheed Tristar 500 was thankfully abandoned.

Psychologically and financially the airline has never really recovered from all these things which happened almost in parallel . The end of the VC10 and long haul aspirations, the collapse of Rhodesian UDI and the emergence of Zimbabwe, and the end of the South African mine labour traffic were a huge impact to absorb and coming close together in time were simply overwhelming. All this was compounded by the virtual closure to international of Blantyre, the destination of most commercial visitors to the country, to ensure that the new international airport at Lilongwe justified its existence. The costs and bills of this fell on Air Malawi's doormat through no fault of its own.

Ever since the early 1980s therefore, the company has struggled to reach an economic critical mass and to carve out a new role for itself in regional air travel. Despite the best of intentions, a fair product with a good safety record and operational standards and a lot of effort, it has not managed to find itself one. It is the right moment therefore, with no discredit to anyone, for Mr Kandodo to say "Enough is enough" and for the market to provide its own solutions. For sure it will, so don't bother to pay a smart international consultancy provider vast amounts of money to tell you that. Take it from here,- absolutely free.

Twitters in the Palace of Westminster

On public sector worker's day of action/inaction over their pension disagreement with the Government,Palace of Westminster resident Mrs Sally Bercow twittered her support and solidarity with them for standing up to the government.

On the previous day fellow occupant of the Speaker's appartment in that building ,a Mr John Bercow, twice disdainfully and unapologetically cut short the Prime Minister's answers at Prime Minister's Question Time.

Twitters both.