Friday, 29 June 2012

Quick roundup on the week.

 Barclays , along with any similar miscreants, should be hung, drawn and quartered.  That is the view of many. Diamond , whether he likes it or not, must as CEO carry the can for the culture and behaviour of his entire organisation. The same responsibily should extend downwards through all layers of management and the culpable should be barred from the industry for  a long time, if not for life. No "ifs". No "buts" and no compensation for loss of job and career. Unfortunately it is unlikely that the laws to enforce that exist.

Syria,- A bloody mess nearly as big as Barclays. The west would like to back the good guys but can't spot who they are other than the poor suffering genuinely innocent civilians caught in multiple crossfires and nobody is representing them. Assad is definately a bad guy but who are the really good, or even moderately good ones? With Iran,-or I-Ran if you are an American,- furiously stirring all kinds of pots and mischief and the west at least complicit in supplying the next 20 years worth of weapons to all who claim to be anti-Assad, it's going to get bloodier still. Stepping in to part several factions and layers of combatants risks temporarily uniting them, Afganistan style, to see off the foreigners before returning to their internecine domestic butchery. Deciding what to do for the least worst is an incredibly tough call . That's why there is a lot of talk but no decisions.

The week's award for heroism has to go to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth 2 and Prince Philip, not so much for usefully shaking the hand of former adversaries but more potentially lethally travelling through the streets of Belfast in a completely open car. They did the same two days after 7/7 when they drove at walking pace down the Mall standing in an open Landrover.  That is personal bravery and heroism on a magnificent scale. Imagine most Presidents considering taking that sort of risk.

On the other  regal hand, the issue new instructions on royal etiquette requiring the future Queen Kate , whenever not accompanied by her husband , to curtsy to the Princesses Eugenie and Beatrice was poorly judged whatever the likely urgings of Princes Charles and Andrew, great believers in Louis XIV type notions of the superiority of "the blood royal" over all others. This sort of thing risks making Battenbergs look like fruit cakes.

Boris Bike attendants: These are the latest in the long line of Crow and McClusky's lads and lasses to get an Olympic bonus in addition to any overtime they would get anyway. The bus companies should hold out but probably won't. What are the staff normally paid for? To drive empty buses? Is anything on top of that hardship and extra work? TfL and many rail companies caved in to Olympian demands with little fight and unfortunately paved the way to the Boris Bikers getting their bung. Will they or their bikes be anywhere near the Olympics? No. And that should have been the answer.

Europe: It's always dangerous for UK's sovereign rights when tough talking but knees wobbling Dave gets anywhere near a gathering of EU leaders. Especially any time when the  IMF's fragrant and convincing ("just another billion or two Dave, people will think so much more of you") Christine is about,- or even in her office. En route to this week's session he fairly pointlessly bunged another £1 point something billion into the Eurofan's "Penny for the Rumphy collection" or highly unspecific growth fund. Do we hear gurgle, gurgle down the drain again? Where and when will Dave's largesse stop?  When will he learn to utter, and mean, the word "No". Time for a Negotiating Skills level 1 course.  Unfortunately few of our current political leaders (OK, I'm being flattering using that word here but it is the end of the week) have ever worked outside politics, managed anything, planned anything, financed anything or indeed led any thing or people. "Problem lah" as the Singaporeans and Malaysians would say.

Clegg: Looks as miserable as sin all the time. That's despite, thanks to the temporary need for a coalition, having reached a reached a rank hitherto beyond his wildest dreams. Maybe someone should do him a favour.

Ed Miliband: Had a good day out on Thursday with his best mates (until someone else will serve them better) , sponsors and leadership vote providers, the brothers of Unite at their annual whinge-in. He is less comfortable around real brothers. He urged the assembled downtrodden  not to strike during the Olympics but to "get both parties around a table" . Getting round a table is Unionspeak for "the employers must give in to all our demands". Ed knows this of course but will never let on because it were the bruvers who defied the other democratic constituents in the Labour leadership contest and handed him the job. They also provide the readies to keep him and the whole Labour apparatus in business. He should remember they don't do it out of charity or love for him or anyone else. Beware lean and hungry looks Ed.

Ed Balls: What can we say? Presumably another day peddling "borrow and spend".

May the world sleep in peace this weekend,-or maybe not. The lions will be on the prowl everywhere.

Thursday, 14 June 2012

Euro Woes.-The design characteristics of overstressed structures and some simple answers.


The EU/Euro saga doesn't get any better. After weeks of the Spanish Government basking in denial of any financial problems it was finally admitted that actually there was one,- and a big one.

The quick solution wasn't a bailout.Oh no. It wasn't like Ireland's or Greece's where hair shirts have been prescribed. No, this was entirely different. The banks, not the government needed a bung and all would be well. People would stop demanding exorbitant rates for lending to the country and life could proceed without the onerous demands for good financial behaviour and austerity imposed on the others in return for the cash.  That was entirely fair,- as the Irish and Greeks would reasonably understand of course. It wasn't a bailout so strict conditions wouldn't be needed.

Anyone who bought all that would need their head, not to mention their finances -examined. Within a day or two the world had said "So what?" Spain's borrowing rate soared to 6.5%  and now to a disastrous 7% today. The 100 billion Euro non-bailout has been rendered ineffectual,-i.e. a waste of otherwise productive money which could have been going  into projects and expenditure to get national economies going, take people off handouts and make them good taxpayers once again. Except in Greece of course where it seems that many never got round to paying taxes in the first place.

So why does this circus of throwing good money after bad keep going on?

It's largely down to the noisy and remarkably effective argument that if this one and the next and the next aren't saved from going down the plug or the terrible fate of having to leave the Eurozone, the whole cardhouse will collapse, the Euro will suffer and take with it all EU economies, Eurozone or not. That, they say, will knock on to a financial meltdown for the rest of they world. Hmm. The risk is much greater if money continues to be thrown uselessly on the fire. Remember the lessons of trying to defend national currencies against devaluation. The money markets aren't stupid, can see there will be a point where further support is unaffordable so they bring on the moment and make it inevitable by betting against the soon-to-be loser. (And do very nicely out of it thankyou, but that's real life).

OK,-then what's the real underlying problem? Why does it keep coming back like a snuffed out party candle?

Again simple.  Both the EU and, even more, the Euro are artifical  structures. These when stretched and stressed beyond their original or sensible design limitation will fail. Stiffen them up by slapping on more steel, concrete or whatever and they will just become heavier and more inefficient . The cost of keeping the structure going, its eventual failure or both will be even worse. Ask any civil engineer. That's what happens.

Taking the EU first, right from the start the objective at the heart (Germany and hitherto France) of the "European project" has been the creation of a barely democratic European superstate.  It was top down and imposed by a small political elite who will not readily give up their heady power.  A sort of United States of Europe. Only it isn't. The USA was created bottom up by disparate groups of refugees arriving with the united aim of securing a better life away from the restrictions, persecution (often religious) and general unpleasantness or simple lack of opportunities wherever they left behind. They wanted to be in America and start a new life. To faciliate this they wiped out most of the people already living there but that's another story. The newcomers wanted to be joined together as Americans first even if they retained some aspects of their home cultures. Even then the emergence of a single federal state wasn't easy and took a bloody civil war.

The EU is not an America and never will be. It was created/imposed  top down as an eventual overriding superstate which would take over and subordinate a wide variety of nations, eventually reducing their sovereign parliaments to a status akin to county councils. The vast majority of the citizens didn't and don't want that imposition and have never even been asked if they do.

The difference between "natural" and "unnatural " is therefore that USA was born with the enthusiasm and support of its people whereas the EU especially in superstate form is not.

Even more "unnatural" ,the Euro was mooted as a single currency so as to make political union or a superstate essential. Its promoters knew that and were entirely cynical about it . To them the end justified their means whether "people" liked it or not. Without a single government it  is inevitable that a joint currency will fail . Each member state will have different cultures,priorities, attitudes to spending and borrowing borrowing and social structures. The actions of the profligate and lazy will threaten the prosperity of others. When the music stops the strongest, most hardworking and prudent will have to pay for the acts or omissions of their fellow members.  That's how it feels to be German right now. As an unnatural currency to bolster or hasten an unnatural superstate, the Euro was a doubtful runner from the start. It was made even more so when criteria to join it were bent so as to widen membership. Everyone knew that Greece for one never really met the criteria and yet for political expediency blind eyes were turned and it was waved through.

Now we have the predictable Barroso and others whose personal future is at stake and dislike the idea of P45s all round ,calling for yet more unity,-banking this time,- to reinforce the failing structure. They would go on for ever adding sticking plaster, sandbags or whatever it took to add to the weight and drag of the whole superstate dream/nightmare while refusing to look further into the future to see the enormous black hole awaiting.

Enough of medication, reinforcement or whatever . It's time to call it a day and let nature take its course. There will be pain but much less than if  the state of denial continues and torrents of potentially productive money are diverted to the superstate cause. Some states have to leave the Euro and some (Britain and the probably the Nordics) formally leave the superstate group to re-form into an EFTA type free trade area which is where they started.  There is no reason why the free trade arrangement should not encompass both the superstate members and the rest . Ideally it should.

The time to accept these realities is now. Given strong "Let's do it" leadership Britain could lead the breaking of this moribund mould and define this new vision of the future. Will it do it? Hard to say. Its government's recent track record of determination in the face of hard decisions and adversity is not encouraging. Even their own MPs make their knees knock. More treacle and fudge could be on the way . If so all Europeans will ultimately pay a high price.


Wednesday, 6 June 2012

"Malaysia Airlines brings joy to the nation......."

Today's Air Transport News brings this heartwarming headline to its readers. The airline has been celebrating the arrival of its first A380 and clearly going all out to wins hearts and minds.

Here's how.

In a statement attributed to the airline ATN goes on:

"Many others took the opportunity to capture themselves on Polaroid photographs with cabin crew members of Malaysia Airlines given away with compliments of the national airline."

Wow. Beat that Mr Branson.

Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Pasty Faced Tories skid on pasties. Time to change the tyres and get some grip.

Beneath the pasty faces, do we hear knocking knees amongst the Tory hierarchy who have now decided to go into an almost terrified change of mind on the ill-named pasty tax?  Who can be advising them that, having taken the pain of the adverse PR and gleeful goadings from the children across the House of Commons floor it was now a good idea to step on the brakes, throw the gears into reverse and abandon the perfectly justifiable (if you put it the right and intelligible way) pasty tax and to delay reduce the newly imposed VAT on static caravans from 20% to 5% ?

Mr Miliband should dine out on another good day at Prime Minister's questions on this needlessly presented open goal. The simple rule of any strategy is that you've taken the grief and survived, don't walk back into the issue for another go. Hold your nerve and carry on. The damage has already been done and recovery will just happen with the passage of time. Even a day can be a long time in politics.

The Prime Minister and his far too small, narrow and unworldly inner circle  must be longing for the safe haven of the long Summer recess when hopefully they can regroup, widen the talent pool , get in some good streetwise advisors and just get a grip.  That's if they understand what's needed .Until they do the Eds and their gangs, lusting for more blood ,look like they are going to have many field days knowing that their constantly repeated soundbites, "Out of touch", "Too fast, too soon" and others similar are gaining traction and not just through the sheer weight of repetition.

Beneath all this, what worries long time political observers, is the lack of shere political nouse in the leadership and running of both major parties. There is a deficiency of  weight and depth in both. Cameron comes across as a presentable and more or less acceptable Prime Minister though increasingly old style establishment and nowhere near a great one. Miliband, while winning the current round of spats looks nothing like a PM and anyway is likely to be knifed behind the curtains if the party looks like it's in with a chance of having another go at further wrecking the economy. Clegg, unable to accept that his party is part of a governing coalition and that with that goes responsibility for at least outward cohesion, appears to have no idea at all about how a bidder for the highest office should look and behave. For him that's OK as he will never be one, but for the others the deficiencies are serious and, to the electorate, depressing.

Gravitas and weight aside, the other disturbing thing is that neither major party appears to have a vision or plan for a better Britian. In a real world there would first be a clearly defined political philosophy from which a strategic and below that tactical plans would flow. Each item on each plan would be costed and constantly tested against the philosophy and overall aims. Any conflict would be removed before it became a problem. Hence for example if growth in the economy is the objective, things that get in the way of that would be removed and already successful industries encouraged rather than discouraged. The thriving educational sector would not be part of a clampdown on immigration. Student visas would be specifically and correctly issued and the period of residence not count toward any later rights to residency or citizenship. Students are simply not immigrants but are needlessly and absurdly being treated as if they were. In another neck of the business woods the highly successful aviation industry would not be hobbled by ever the increasing and extortionate Air Passenger Duty and the stubborn refusal to build another runway where it most urgently needed and quickest built-Heathrow. Then there is power generation and then......the list goes on and on and needs decisive untangling but there is no sign of the Tory leadership even understanding there is a problem.

On the question of thinking everything through and coming up with real plans, Labour are at the moment ahead. Miliband's enlisting of Messrs Adonis and Crudas to work respectively on plans for business and industry and winning the next election is a good strengthening move. Both are good producers and not intensly political. Adonis was once a Lib Dem and should have been re-recruited by the coalition from day 1 , ideally to continue in his transport role. By further additions to a visibly sensible group, Labour could overcome the lightweight appearance of its knockabout 4th form leadership team. For the Tories, there are groups such as the young MPs "301"who are seeking to get a grip on the party and come up with strong electorally attractive plans with which to recapture the high ground. They need to get motoring now and break cover quickly once the summer recess is over and have clear offerings on the table by May 2013, two years ahead of the next election. Any later than that and they start to get behind the clock and the task of coming up with winning formulae becomes harder . The counter arguement of "why didn't you do it when you were in  office?" will get stronger by the day. If the Tory machine doesn't regain its grip, stop panicing and swerving all over the road it will end up in the ditch or against a wall. 

Monday, 28 May 2012

The past fortnight , Queen Elizabeth 2 and the austerity summer

There has been plenty to catch the eye and ear this past fortnight so rather than dwell at length on particular goings on and nonsenses, here are a few lines on some of them together with a peek at what lies ahead this summer.

It already seems a long time ago but David Cameron crossed the Atlantic to meet with President Obama and other G8 leaders for another non-action packed summit and photocall to tackle the problems of the Euro. No mention of the root cause, the currency's dysfunctional parent the EU. Current religion is that both are "a good thing" and doubters like Cameron get scowls from giants of the world stage like Herman van Rumphey and Baroness (in itself a ludicrously antiquated title and encumbrance) Ashton. The latter lady, never in her career democratically elected to any post, is now is incidentally one of the world's highest paid politicians.

Presumably the attendees enjoyed their Awayaday and were happy enough to go on their way with nothing much achieved.

One good thing leads to another . The EU contingent then returned home only to quickly reconvene for another chat over a good dinner  (the wine doesn't come from Tesco's offers of the week), photocall and again no measurable output other than to reiterate with only one dissenting  voice :"Oh dear, this Greek thing is a mess. We do wish it would go away , paid for by those rich Germans who were prudent virgins who put their house in order during the good times while we had a borrowing and spending ball. " Angela was clearly unimpressed and something like "Over my dead body" was etched across her face in the group photo.

Here at home, the British are limbering up for what they believe will be austerity summer season. Only it won't be. June kicks off with a double Bank Holiday to celebrate  60 years of the reign of Queen Elizabeth 2. At 86 she continues to manage a remarkably energetic schedule and to fulfil her regal role with growing admiration even from the ranks of the sceptical. She became Queen  when World War 2 was a very recent and fresh memory. Its victims, war widows, orphans, the seriously maimed were everywhere as were unrebuilt bombsites in towns all over the country. Rationing continued and the country , saddled with the additional debt of what it owed its special friend the USA for keeping Hitler away from their trans Atlantic doorstep was truly broke. Anyone who seriously thinks we are experiencing austerity now would be laughed out of court by those who really struggled to bring up families in the early 50s. At times the Queen has been slow to adapt and at others she has almost flatly refused to do so, but  for being a rock of stability she has earned a huge , if sometimes grudging respect. Perhaps motivated party by a determination to keep her son Charles' reign as short as possible, she shows no sign of moving on other than eventually "by natural causes". Most of the nation is grateful and even the anti-monarchists scan the horizon in vain for any constitutional alternative. President Blair? President Brown? Clegg? Cameron? Balls? Hmm. "Best  stick with what we've got" is a common conclusion.

Once the Jubilee celebrations are over we are into the braying season. Royal Ascot starts off on 19th June, with tightened dress code this year. No brave new bare knees, never mind midriffs
world there. Wimbledon follows on 25th with lots of bonk, bonk and grunting on the courts and maybe even more off them, and to round off the June jollity there is Henley, boom time for Brakespeare's beers and Pimms.

Once June is past, the schools are out and the braying in particular moves out to Rock (16+ age group right through to 60+) and offshore to fashionable parts of France and Italy. The rest tend to go elsewhere , the socio/economic group heading for each place being closely aligned to the price of fizzy lager. Wives and children generally precede the males of the better off "hard working families". In August the rest of the population moves out of the workplace and this year more than ever people are encouraged not to clog up London during the Olympics by going to work.

For any visitors hoping to walk into the UK and see all the occupants of any offices they may wish to do business with, the very earliest date we recommend is Monday 3rd September but safer would be Monday 10th when the schools are going back. We in Britain really are determined to see off this economic crisis thing and will be going all out for it from then until at least the Half Term break in mid October.


Clegg and illiberal Liberals.


Unfortunately when the shiny faced Nick Clegg said "No rational person wants to see Greece exit the Eurozone" he wasn't misreading his script. He actually meant it.

Over the weekend he continued on track saying that any talk of putting up the shutters on economic migration from Greece or other European countries following the collapse of the Euro was "deeply unhelpful". For "unhelpful" we can read "the possibility shouldn't be discussed or aired". This is consistent illiberal Liberalspeak for anyone daring to question their views. Their unswerving support of all things EU regardless of the organisation's essentially illiberal, non democratic nature is also consistent with this ongoing intolerance of opposing views. If the LibDems had their way , questions which should be asked of any organisation and challenges which should be made never would be never get an airing. It is an extraordinarily naive and potentially dangerous  way of thinking and totally ignores the rights and interests of the constituent electorates and taxpayers.

Maybe the party should (at last) come clean and change its name.

Thursday, 17 May 2012

Postscript to Ed at the nurses conference,-" Be miserabalist." Silly.


Further to our featuring Ed Miliband's love-in with the nurses at the Royal College of Nursing (that's their union) Conference, we have to return with the news that he also encouraged them to email the Labour Party with all instances of patient care being compromised by "the cuts". One would have expected nothing more of the man. Nevertheless it is disappointing for anyone looking for any prospect of a better, brighter, "can-do" Britain were Labour to return to power.

Had he invited a similar flow of reports about things which might be better after the NHS reforms,one might have partly forgiven him but the Labour and socialist ethos is not to seek the cheerful, upbeat and positive. It doesn't do their cause any good at all. A world of moderate discontent, unhappiness and everything wrong being someone else's fault is where they prefer to live.

For UK Plc, this exhortation to critical miserabalism is unfortunate. The British are good enough at it without Ed's encouragement. His approach also encourages resistance to almost any change of any kind and this is depressing and unfortunate especially amongst government servants. Those working in the private sector have long had to manage and cope with reorganisations and reduced manpower. They know that the message about "cuts" is not that a straight line graph of less people=less output. It's about how to deliver the same,or even better,outputs with less resources.

What this government is attempting is a public sector revolution of costs, productivity and ultimately attitudes possibly even greater than Margaret Thatcher's sorting of the unions. It is fundamental to the future affordability of public services and the diversion of funding from back offices to the front line and on to customers and patients. Despite or because of all the shouting they dare not call it a revolution. That really would fighten the children. It's courageous stuff. Its short term effects and resentment could cost them the 2015 General Election. No matter, they are doing it and in reality just like last time Labour would be secretly grateful and reverse very little, if any, of it.