Summer is over........

What passed for a British summer is over. It was a strange one. No long weeks of sun, lots of dark,cold, rainy,days. It just never really got going. OK we won the Ashes but in a peculiar and somehow unsatisfying way which precluded any thoughts of triumphant open top bus parade followed by cricketers behaving badly at Number 10. With the holidays over and schools back this is the real New Year and the slide into autumn and then winter begins. It's enough to make one shiver,- if not already doing so.

Politics was been a largely desert area since the May General Election with two vanquished leaders , Ed and Nick,doing a runner and Nige just doing a quick nip around the block before returning to reclaim UKIP's crown. Nobody seems to quite know or care what the unfortunate Nick did . Ed, after a couple of shorthaul former man the people sorts of breaks, ultimately got as far as far as Australia having abandoned his party at their hour of greatest need of some continuity and stability. He has grown a beard. Maybe the holidaying Ed is about to disappear on a walkabout in the outback where he might meet his political self doing the same thing.

Meanwhile in the smoldering ruin of the Labour Party someone thought it would be a good idea to throw a bit of excitement into the otherwise near dead Labour leadership contest by drafting veteran left winger Jeremy Corbyn into the pot "Just to widen the debate". It did that and barring a miracle the man will now be the next Leader and take the party off to the far, union led, left. The unions and other outposts of the left had never gone away. Always much more organised than any equivalents on the right, they bided their time through the Blair years , felt a bit more perky under Brown and got ready for a takeoever bid under the Ed. They have now launched their very well planned and effective offensive. The moment looks like being theirs. Labour moderates and modernisers can expect to be tidying their shadow ministerial desks as the remnants and replicas of Militant Tendency  (To most barely distinguishable from the Communist Party but possibly less attractive move in. Mr Corbyn is promising to use every possible Parliamentary means to frustrate the democratically elected Conservative government's attempts to do almost anything. As the cargo cult SNP are determined to behave likewise it could be a rough four and a half years unless the Tory right and oddballs behave themselves, something which seems unlikely. Just when the voters are saying the are pretty sick of party pantomimes and would just like to see some cooperation to get things done the mice look like playing. The nightmare scenario is that the Tories somehow stuff things up so badly that they lose the 2020 General Election and in comes Mr Corbyn by default. It might solve the net migration problem but it would not be good for the longer term health of UK Plc.

On the migration score we have are seeing a flood of migrants head to the Mediterranean. The genuine refugees, mainly  from Syria, have mostly entered Europe via Greece while the generally economic migrants from Africa have made the crossing from Libya.

 The EU's programe to rescue those at sea between the Libyan and italian coasts and land them in Europe rather than back in North Africa has meant that the people smugglers selling and logistical jobs have become much easier. Instead of providing seaworthy boats, all they now have to do is push overloaded rubber dinghys out to sea and then send distress calls, or maybe not even those, knowing that most will be picked up. Some drown. The traffickers don't care. No refunds. This was always going to be the result of a "pull through" rather than "return to origin" policy .Only the naive (notably politicians and NGOs in the refugee business,- for that's what it is)- would think otherwise. Europeans generally are confused. They like to talk liberal and hardly dare appear to be reactionary. They speak therefore in moralising tones and with shaking heads and much tutting, about having to do something for these people "who must be desparate". Much of the media routinely use the phrase "Desperate migrants". Many, especially the Syrians, are genuinely that. Some though are not. There is almost no mention of fact that the potential flow of economic migrants from sub Saharan Africa is almost limitless.  Families tend to be large. That means maybe ten people to follow in the wake of every one who is given leave to stay. So as to keep away from the uncomfortable truth that most of the refugees from sub Saharan Africa and non combat zones such as Bangladesh are economic migrants, the media has in the last few days almost exclusively focused on the eastern Med where most are indeed Syrians. Today's tragic picture of a soldier carrying a young drowned boy is being almost relentlessly used to fuel shouts that Europe's borders must be opened. How many have any idea of where that could lead and what it would mean?

In order to develop a fair and coherant policy Europe first has do decide what it really wants to do and be. The conclusions should not come in the form of diktats by Messrs Junker, Merkels, the beaurocrats of Brussels or any other self appointed person or body. The definition of what needs to be done then flows from that rather than a series of disjointed ad hoc emotionally driven responses. Europe and its constituent nations need to understand the dynamics of  the current shambles so that they can clearly identify what needs to be done long term about huge volumes of migrants now being pushed by warfare, misgovernment  or poverty at home and pulled by the attraction of a new life.  They also need to understand that the issue is far far bigger than the short term one of how to deal with the thousands or tens of thousands already in transit. It's about the potential millions or even tens of millions who could follow .Is Europe happy about and ready for the future massive cultural and social changes and for existing majorities to become minorities and ruled accordingly? These might not smack of the democracy or mainly secular foundations they are used to. If it is happy with or even ready to accept these new realities then it can relax and take in all comers.


 Many would reasonably conclude that Europe's failings have destabalised the Middle East . In Africa particularly it has ever since the 1960s squandered billions on aid projects which have achieved absolutely nothing lasting and this nothing is at the root of much we are seeing. While handing out the funds, often with grossly inadequate  monitoring of how the money is spent and turning a blind eye to poor governance, corruption and even the effective rule of law the western world has behaved with almost total disregard of the man or woman in or on the street. Too often they have been left in abject poverty with no prospects while the big men have grown more opulent and oppressive by the day. If all the money poured into  recipients had been spent on building and maintaining infrastructure, developing and training training expertise there would be no reason for anybody to want to leave. Why is Tanzania for example not a glittering tropical state with wonderful schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure?

The aim of refugee programes should be to improve conditions in the countries of origin so that they are able to return home to rebuild their homes and lives as soon as possible .That point is becoming lost in the current wave of media emotional outpourings.The issues around economic migrants are very different and needs to be separated from those who really are seeking refuge.

Before the refugee "Crisis" Greece had been enjoying daily headlines about "Grexit-Yes or No?" Would they stay in the EU and Eurozone or not? At least until after the new snap election the answer was a sort of "Yes" between gritted teeth, Other than Mr Junker and other drivers of "the Great Project"  nobody anywhere really seemed to believe it. Maybe even they didn't. The opportunity to regain their freedom from the straitjacket of an essentially northern European currency and constant frowns and lectures from Brussels must be very tempting to the Greek voters, whatever the short term pain.

Across the Atlantic they have as usual been squaring up for another of their all too frequent elections. This time it's the big one, the 2016 Presidential in which the incumbent is barred from standing. Incredibly for the world's most powerful nation (Sorry Mr Putin of the bare chest), there is no sign of a battle of the Titans. Hillary Clinton, for long the assumed winner, is losing ground. Where is the next Democrat big hitter? On the other side the very idea that Donald Trump could be a serious contender is difficult for a foreigner to comprehend. Maybe to many Americans too?  Where is the Republicans giant of a personality and obvious front runner? Not another Bush surely?

Happy New Year/Autumn!

Dave hands an easy one to Jeremy.

For far out left Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn, David Cameron's dissolution honours list looks as dissolute and off the planet as it possibly could be.

What was Dave thinking about on his imaginative holidays in Portugal and Cornwall ( Seems it was a "no" again to Far East, Kenya's Great Migration, or even the USA but perhaps they were never considered as not man of the people places)? Even if he'd knocked up this list of cronies and sponsors and hangers on (of all the former main parties) before he went away, surely anyone with political nous would have woken up in the middle of the night sweating that he was just about to fall into a bear/Tory trap of his own making and do a hasty rewrite and cull. Where were his advisors?

The dreary list adds £1.2 m a year to the bill for running the already absurdly large ( in a former life Dave had said he wanted to reduce it) unelected legislative body which is now becoming a blot of Britain's democratic credentials. It looks more and more like an old mates club and less and less a place where some of the nonsenses which get barely a glance in the Commons can be examined in a less political atmosphere.

The 2020 General Election is there for the Conservatives to lose. One of the ways they snatch defeat is to confirm to voters some of Corbyns shouts and dogwhistles about an inward looking,inbred, corrupt and self serving establishment. Even if Corbyn doesn't win the very old Labour crown for sure whoever does will pick up the same theme on this issue. It's just too good for them to miss. Dave's inept, insensitive and appalling list is a step in that direction.

Why does he keep doing this sort of thing? It's probably down to the reality that his life has always been centered in very refined London and Oxfordshire English circles. Genuine encounters with and experiences of the world inhabited by most people have been relatively few. Sensibly he would have very close to him a few "ordinary people" as Labour likes to call them who could steer him away from cliff edges, but he doesn't appear nearly so comfortable with them. His successor will have to be very decisive in putting these images to rest, ideally starting by slashing House of Lords numbers and cleaning up and de-politicising and de-cronyising further appointments from the start. It has to be done before 2020.

MPs go off on hols and Labour ponders a swerve off the road.

They've gone. The first short term of the new majority government Parliament is over. For those who  survived the election it's been quite a year since their last long break. There was the tedious winter with its everlasting preaching and whinging about how awful things were from the power seeking Messrs Miliband, Cooper, Burnham and others, carping from the LibDems who were meant to be part of Government and the dreadful thought that either or both of those tribes could together form a majority government in the May General Election. Fortunately the pollsters got it all hideously wrong and when the likely result flashed up on the outside of the BBC building seconds after 10pm on the big night there was was a palpable sense of relief, not to mention amazement. Within hours some big names were gone. Ed Balls was toast, his defeat confirming that it really was a bad night. For the new bugs, especially the non House trained SNP horde descending from the north the first two months of their parliamentary careers has been a great learning experience. The seven week gap will allow them to come back with the confidence of not now being new.

Since the big night the Labour Party has in disarray and left as a smouldering ruin, mainly one of denial. The Party needed the steadying hand of the leader to settle them down and start working on the future, first of all figuring out that they had simply been trying to flog an out of date product that people no longer wanted to buy even though they weren't exactly in love with the alternative. Instead their former Dear Leader did a runner. He dropped everything in the lap of the hapless Harriet Harman and flitted off to the Med with his Mrs, who could throw all those measurements for new Number 10 curtains in the bin. They had a couple of holidays. OK he was exhausted and beaten but so was his party. Those Labour MPs who survived or freshly joined Parliament had no such luxury .Above all they needed gathering together and leadership to help them recover from the shock of the night. They didn't get it.

The Tories have thoroughly enjoyed this first session as the new majority government. The absence of hand wringing LibDems holding their ankles has been a wonderful feeling. They know that five years is a short time to get things done so have set off at a good pace. The 2010 coalition failed to do that as did Tony Blair in 1997. Blair wasted his first term and threw away his potential legacy because he thought he had all the time in the world.  Early in his second term he was taken over by Iraq and adulation for George Bush. Hubris was in the driving seat and out of the window went all the visions of New Labour party and public sector reform. That was it .Any dreams of being the great reformer were over.

After May 10th Labour needed  to steady themselves, follow their former leader on holiday , dust themselves down and take stock of what had happened. After a summer pause there should have been a thorough review of policy and then decisions on whether they wanted to satisfy the existing small core party and probably never see power again or return to the election winning stance of New Labour. That hasn't happened and it's become a gory process. The leadership cart has been put before the policy horse. There is now a long process involving three essentially left candidates leaning towards the past and one forward looking one who is branded (dirty word)) Tory or ,even worse, Blairite.

Several dynamics are at work here.

First the dark socialist real heart of the core Labour Party is exposed. New Labour was an aberration and never won the hearts and minds of the old lags or the new idealistic protest movement anti austerity etc. young. Both these groups have watched Quantative Easing and, like Mr Corbyn concluded that it proves you can just print more new banknotes and all economic problems are solved,  Many accepted New Labour as a way of gaining power but they never believed in it. They saw it as a means to an end but not one they could ever commit to. And as for the cave dwelling unions.....

Second it would be unwise to welcome Mr Corbyn as leader on the basis that he would keep Labour out of power for a decade or more. If the Conservative Government were to seriously come off the tracks by its policies not working over the next 5 years then Labour could get in by default in 2020 whatever its programme and whoever its leader. Corbyn, although speaking left wing nonsense much of the time, has one big plus over most of the leading current Labour and Conservative politicians. He speaks English rather than other world Politician. That in itself will get quite a stack of votes, as , counter to recent fashion, will be the fact that he's older. Wiser no ,but attractive to a receptive revolutionary audience with his thirsting for nationalisation, love of socialist comrades and causes around the world, and belief in higher taxes on and general emasculation of the better off.

If Mr Corbyn does win it is possible that the Blairites may break away either into a separate David Owen style Democratic Socialist Party or simply join up with the LibDems who would warmly welcome any hand to to bring them back from the dead.

There are many days and nights to go before we know how this contest will play out. Finding out what it means will take longer but we can expect a lot of noise from the left, especially now it has been reinforced in the Commons by the much more eloquent and vociferous cargo cult Scottish Nationalists. 

Greece,- Let nature take its course.

The convolutions going on in Europe over a possible Greek Eurozone exit are something to behold. They display many of the worst features of the zone and the EU straitjackets and the consequences of past misdeeds, distortions of figures and political manipulation. Greece never really qualified to join the Euro in 1981 It was always a fix .That was pretty public knowledge but blind eyes were turned and the situation massaged to even get them on board. On the part of France in particular the measures were proactive rather than passive.

Now the chickens have come home to roost. Build anything, a house, a business, a state on foundations of sand or none at all. Sooner or later it will collapse or cost a fortune in artificial respiration to keep going. Even then it will almost always eventually collapse at a much greater cost than if it had been sorted out in the first place..

 Right now the ever righteous Mr Junker complains of having been betrayed. At the same time he says the door is still open for more negotiations. The only message he is giving is that the Euro club are desperate to avoid Greece dropping the currency or even out of the Union. This isn't because the Euro or EU  love Greece. It's because they are terrified of the loss of face occasioned by the admission that a one size fits and works all northern and southern Europe states alike. It never could and the sensible kept well clear.  The size, economies, activities, national temperements and needs of the member states vary enormously. Their inability under the Euro to do anything with their currencies to even out the effects of diversity out leaves them hamstrung.

Also much feared in monolithic Brussels is the idea that even one defection from the Eurozone might lead other states to question the whole operation of the EU itself. Britain is already doing that although rather cackhandedly by positioning its demands for as being for its own benefit rather than for all the members of the creaking, centralising ,going nowhere, hugely expensive ,self serving and barely democratic institution.

One can understand the Greeks still thinking that Mr Junker and friends will blink first. They usually do if they see their own interests and pedestals threatened.

There should be no further discussions. Ireland and Portugal in particular were forced to swallow the austerity medicine ,took the pain and came out of their criseas well.  They and others would  be rightfully indignant if Greece got of its self made hook. If Greece insists on its course of rejecting economic reforms, aka austerity, and claiming it can get its accounts straight by soaking the rich and penalising business then it should be allowed to do so and let go. Despite all the howls about serious consequences for all, nobody knows what the effects will be. The only way to find out must be to let nature take its course and manage the downsides as they appear. This is by far the most practical and best medium and long term solution and almost certainly the cheapest. It will also highlight the fact that the only people who can get Greece back on the road are the Greeks.

Footnote: The biggest question around a Greek exit from the currency and/or the EU is how much it would turn the country's left wing government to a mischievous Russia and what that would really mean.

The week so far...................

First up has to be yesterdays lovely pictures of Greece's smiling Prime Minister with the European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker's arm extended warmly around his shoulder. What great body language. "We'll sort out something for you my boy" it says. Unlikely to see David Cameron get quite the same sort of warmth but we can live in hope. If keeping Greece in the Eurozone, for which it was never really financially eligible and in the EU is so important, how much more so is it for Mr Junker and friends to keep the UK in the EU? We should never forget that the unlamented Gordon Brown did the country one enormous favour when he rejected Tony Blair's wild enthusiasm for the UK adopting the Euro and thereby becoming welded into this disastrous one size fits Germany straitjacket. At least he saw where that one was coming from.

Talking of the relics of the 1997-2010 Labour dynasty it is no surprise to see that Lord (There's a true socialist title for you,- once they've tasted the good claret) Mandelson was beaten into third place in the election for the Chancellorship of Manchester University. He and his co-loser Sir Mark Elder a locally distinguished musician, will though be heartened by the Times report that Dame Nancy Rothwell, the President and Vice Chancellor has said that "other prestigious roles" are being sought for them. One has to ask why? Is the university not doing perfectly well without them ? Why create new roles just because you've got a couple of nice "terribly influential" celebs hanging about? Are they short of a crust or prestige so need new pedestals ? Even if they were why should Manchester University come to their aid, especially if it costs them any money? It all sounds a bit luvvie. Clearly anybody to do with this circle to have a title anyway and that's another growing British social problem worth a study of its own.

Also looking a bit luvvie is Richmond's golden boy MP Zac Goldsmith's declaration today that he will be running for the Tory nomination for Mayor of London. While current incumbent Boris, complete with an Eton and Oxford background, has a great man of the people touch and above all is seen as fun,  Goldsmith, is different. He is undoubtedly popular in Tory quarters especially the Richmond sort, but is very much the man of the gilded cage and  may struggle to find common ground with swathes of other Londoners. He's not exactly the sort of man you might expect to possibly bump into in the greasy spoon, newsagents ,on the bus or train whereas with Boris, perhaps it's unlikely in reality but you feel you just might and its the impression that counts.

That reminds us that Sir Harold Davies is in the next few weeks,- probably as close to Parliament breaking up for the long hols as possible,- due to reveal his recommendations on new runways for southern England. This is a tough one for an establishment man conscious of what is asked of him. We mean what is really asked of him .The first thing ,- and this bit was utterly clear,- was the absurd demand by the last government three years ago that he should not report before the May 2015 General Election.So began the longest essay in history. Three hours should have been enough, or three weeks in non exam conditions. Everyone knows the best answer for UK Plc is Heathrow and even better for both Heathrow and Gatwick so that a) There really is enough capacity and b) The two airports can slug it out competitively for growth. Everyone also knows that the recommendation will most likely be a fudge and unsatisfactory to everybody. The need for more runway slots is immediate,- or rather at least ten years ago. The report is more likely to talk about ten years hence,- which is about the earliest we could expect actual concrete anyway,- and point towards Gatwick while leaving the options open to review Heathrow again " in the long term" . That's to say to do absolutely nothing about it within the lifetime of most people now on the planet. Although it is a national issue and the UK has a population of 63.8 million and an electorate of 46.1 million the decision could rest on just three inside the M25 west London people the Prime Minister doesn't want to upset and who might cause him grief. Such is sometimes the reality of democracy. Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson and Justine Greening all west London MPs. A nonsense? Of course. It would never have come to this if it hadn't been for Cameron's wobbly knees before the 2010 General Election. Under Lord Adonis as Minister for Transport Heathrow was almost ready to start digging. Cameron thought that the only way to secure West London constituencies was to say no to Heathrow expansion. He was wrong as he would have won the seats anyway without that commitment. Ever since he has been squirming on his self made rack. Now is the time to take command and tell the recalcitrants to get off the runway but when push comes to shove he's not very good at that.

Down in the Med another storm is brewing. Her Majesty's Royal Navy and others are fishing "refugees" out of the water in ever increasing numbers. That's right and fine but instead of landing them back in North Africa they being transported to Italy where nobody is really clear or sure about what should happen next. For the vast majority who are economic migrants rather than escapees from the real Syrian and allied Middle East conflicts the answer should be simple quick flight home , the only place from which applications can be considered. The almost universal underlying belief is that this is unlikely and eventually they will be able to move northwards to the desired goals of  the more welfare generous countries. Once established they would expect to be able to bring in their, often large, families. This is incentivising the traffickers to step up their efforts. They now know that they barely need to equip their boats with engines but just push them off the Libyan coast and the passengers will be taken care of. There is a real possibility of not millions but tens of millions heading north in a short space of time. European heads fail to grasp this and instead talk for ever about "desperate people". They are stuck in idealistic quasi liberal sand refusing to think through the consequences and doing nothing concrete while a real human crisis builds. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has given the advice one might expect. Inevitably he has his human rights critics at home and abroad but his policy of making it absolutely clear that the vast majority of the boat economic migrants will never be able to settle in Australia is working. This is probably the only recipe that will. It might seem tough but it means that nobody setting of on these often hazardous and expensive journeys is under any illusions that their journeys will almost certainly lead right back home after a lot of discomfort along the way. If Europe is prepared to be changed utterly, ,impoverished and overwhelmed by numbers then its present policy is fine. If not, not. The whole thing seems to be way beyond most EU politicians, and hey, its nearly hols time in Brussels too.

That's the week so far. And it's only Tuesday.

UK election dust settles.

The political drama of last Thursday night will go down as a classic. Weeks of "Too close to call" poll verdicts, the dismissal of any chance of either major party having a majority and speculation as to which cobbled together coalition would win the day were suddenly exploded at 10pm when the BBC/ITV exit poll result was announced. Its verdict that the Conservatives would get 316 seats, just ten short of a majority blew Ed Miliband's dreams of leading a government apart. The instant reaction was that such a number was impossible. It just had to be wrong. The pompous Paddy Ashdown promised to eat his hat if it were true. Labour's old spin master Alistair Campbell promised to consume his kilt. To Miliband it must have been a hammer blow beyond belief. His lifetime ambition, the one for which he had elbowed his brother,was blown apart in moments. Politics is a brutal game and this most cruel reverse will take some getting over. Nick Clegg would probably vouch for that too. Even after the first few results Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman was still parroting her pre-ordained script "It's a terrible night for the Tories". The early hours' realisation that 316 seats could drift to the magic 326 overall majority and possibly even higher took a while to sink in, especially on the BBCs forecast which seemed to lag a bit all night.

So where are we now? Miliband, Clegg and Farage whose party though not seat tally had done well all fell upon their swords. Miliband's and Cleggs were genuine but Farage's appears to have been a stage fake. Harriet Harman, now Labour's Acting Leader, still locked into her personal fog, is muttering that the defeat will take some while to understand and conclusions must not be rushed..

Ms Harman can be spared the agonising. The reason is simple. Miliband's Labour were selling a dated 1950s-70s product that people don't want to buy. It's no use implying that the voters got it wrong and will change their minds another time. The old fashioned class warfare themed offerings talking patronisingly about "ordinary people", "working people" excluded and even vilified the aspirational (most people) and the successful. Why do that?  It's a gift to the Conservatives.

Not only Labour need to rethink their product and positioning. The Tories , who they are, how they look and sound and what they appear to stand for are not loved in many quarters. They have a lot to do in the north , where fortunately George Osborne is already on the case, and other poorer areas . There's Scotland too of course.

Right now David Cameron is on the high of a honeymoon and doing the right things (well balanced cabinet) at the right pace (not frantic but swift and determined). Freed of the LibDem handcuffs and concrete blocks around its ankles, his party looks remarkably fresh and like hitting the ground running.

Nationally, outside the celebs and some misguided young who say they feel like emigrating (Please do), there is something of a national sigh of relief. People on zero hours contracts need not fear being out of a job in weeks, business isn't threatened with micro management or in the case of the railways partial renationalisation. Neither Nicola Sturgeon nor Len McClusky will be writing  the government's agenda and Number 10 won't be doing beer and sandwiches. The revitalised Prime Minister, unexpectedly handed this Get Out of Jail Free card, must lift his horizons and spread his circle beyond the previous narrow clique. Unencumbered by the coalition there is lot to achieve and a personal legacy to create. There is not much time. The May 2020 election is in play now.

UK Election,- They're off.

Hopefully our travel weary Conservative and Labour leaders, veterans of countless "Don't meet the people" photo and other opportunities these last six weeks, will be getting a good night's sleep this afternoon.

They will need it if the whole unsatisfactory affair breaks down into "difficult" discussions about coalition and alliances. Expect plenty of acrimony before during and after.

Having inherited a disastrous financial mess from the broke Gordon Brown Labour government which included the socialists now bidding for another shot at doing it again and having got half way to solving it ,David Cameron should this afternoon be well on his way to victory.

But he isn't. The lacklustre campaign which didn't even to mention most of the coalition's many achievements, an unrehabilitated brand image and the the loss of the constituency boundary changes because he wouldn't go along with the LibDems' demands for even minor House of Lords reforms have left the man in the blue corner looking very vulnerable. He is rated by the electorate well ahead of Ed Miliband well ahead of his opponent  as likely being the better Prime Minister and being the more likely to reduce the current account defecit to zero. And yet he still struggles to get the breakthrough that he might expect.

Over in the red corner lie some of the reasons. Ever since the Brown years the well organised socialists have steadily plugged away at the soundbites of the class war. "For the many not the few", "Hard working working people" have been repeated ad infinitum . They have scarcely been  challenged and have taken a deep and toxic deep root. Mr Miliband and colleagues have relentlessly  harped on about "unfairness", portrayed successful people as "fat cats" and without scruple stoked up feelings about even the moderately well off being disadvantaged  exploited.  Everyone is a victim. "Austerity" is blamed for most ills even though the country has so far seen nothing like it.

The Conservatives never seemed to understand what the sound bites were all about so despite having a good story to tell never took the trouble to vigorously counter them. That's why we have the neck and neck race there should never have been.

Tonight many will be watching from behind the couch.

Footnote: Another key unenforced error was to ever agree to a referendum on Scottish independence. The idea should simply have been non negotiable under the Act of Union. Allowing it to happen gave a surge of oxygen to an otherwise fairly moribund issue and fired up the SNP  to keep raising it in the future. Inevitably in the end they will get a "Yes".