A bit more on today's"Sums" posts.....

Let's put a bit more flesh on our two brief  Brexit posts earlier today.

When David Cameron was doorstepped by his car and asked if he still thought the Brexit Referendum was the right thing to have done he replied that he had to go with it because he had promised one in the 2015 General Election campaign. Dave's promise is Dave's promise unless it's the one to stay around and manage whatever the Referendum indicated.

His aim was to stop forty plus years of bickering and divides within the Tory party by having a national vote. He was confident this would demonstrate that the nation was substantially in favour of remaining in the EU so there was no point in arguing about it within the party. In depth surveys either by the party of the government would have shown that the reality was, and always had been, more or less a 50/50 split both across parties and many regions especially outside the London bubble.

He was confident that he would win and even told his EU colleagues that he was " a winner" and would. Not a great negotiating position when asking for concessions which would keep the Brexiteers at bay. Further "As any fule kno" (thankyou Molesworth) if you're about to run a contest, especially one of major constitutional importance,it's a good idea to give yourself the best possible chance of winning. The constitutions of almost any social club require at least a 60/40 majority for any change. Not Dave though. He promised he would do whatever the majority, however small, wanted. He also said that he would stay and manage the outcome whichever it was.

Constitutionally the promise to action the Referendum's result, by however slender a majority , had no validity. He did not have to follow it. The way was open on the fateful morning to say "That's too close to call. We will go away and think about what to do about it" (ie not a lot). Instead, having it is said expressed reluctance to stick around and do the hard work, he threw in the towel  pretty much  as soon as he'd had time to write a little speech and and get the Mrs and kids in front of the cameras outside number 10.  There was no need for that throwing of the toys into a corner. Sensibly he would have dusted himself down, taken a few deep breaths and maybe a few days chilling in the Cotswolds and then gone back to the EU and said "Look, that didn't go the way any of us wanted. What can we all do to quieten things down ? " He failed to do anything like that and threw away any legacy other than the reputation as the man who stuffed up right royally. He quit at the moment when he was most needed to steady the ship. Not a great demonstration of a public service ethic. He did though promise to remain an MP and represent his constituents . That one lasted just a few months before he again quit in favour of the pressure of life in a new build shepherd's hut  where he could write his memoires. Sensibly they haven't appeared yet but if he's stuck for a title a lot of people have suggestions.

So where are we now and what have we learned?

- Any major constitutional change requires a government with a strong majority and a single vision of what it is trying to achieve. A minority government without one and total unity of purpose has no chance.

- Ideally , in case there are dissenters -,there is at last some cross party support. Right now the Conservative Party has none.

What next?  The Conservatives replacing Mrs May as leader would leave them no better off than they are now. No Brexit deal anyone could put forward would satisfy the Brexiteers, the Remainers and several different factions in between. No deal is therefore likely to get through the Commons. Only one to remain would. The majority of MPs are pro -Remain anyway. It looks likely therefore that by one means or another Brexit will be ditched, especially as the ECJ on Monday ruled that Article 50 can be revoked at any time up to March 29th .Two and a half years of preoccupation with Brexit and lack of time, energy and will to deal with a host of other pressing issues will be over. The Conservative Party will be divided and exhausted. It will be almost unmarketable to the electorate leaving the way open to what in normal circumstances be the almost equally unelectable Marxixt led Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn is playing a very clever and currently quiet hand. In private he must be licking his chops. The long suffering electorate looks like suffering some more.

Simple sums. All over for Brexit?

- There is no EU exit deal which would currently satisfy Tory Brexiteers and Remainers and several factions in between.

-.All other parties will vote against any deal.

-No exit Bill will therefore ever pass the Commons.

- The majority of MPs support remaining in the EU.

-The European Court of Justice ruled yesterday that the UK could still withdraw its submission  of Article 50 and remain in the EU on existing Terms and Conditions.

Sooner or later (before March 29th), game over?

Thought for the day: Electoral Sums.

- When David Cameron refused to agree to some of Nick Clegg's limited House of Lords reforms he lost the Lib Dem support for the implimentation of the electoral boundaries review. This would have handed the Tories another 30 or more seats.

- Had he gone along with it that would have given the Conservatives a majority of 47 or more in the 2015 election.

-Even if he'd still jumped over the side of the ship in 2016 maybe Mrs May would not have been so tempted to call another General Election in 2017.

Dave , it seems, doesn't have sums as one of his stronger points.

The Big Deal,- Must be just about right.

Theresa May's big deal goes to the EU leaders' meeting on Sunday. The chances are that it will be approved despite some residual griping such as Spain's over Gibraltar.

Back home it's not looking so easy. Getting anything through a parliament in which you don't have an overall majority is tricky but when your own party is split and you can't rely on help from any of the other parties it's even more so.

Let's look at it a different way though. If the deal on the table is equally disliked by Brexiteers and Remainers it's probably just about what the average Briton wants. An exit for one lot and not too far removed from remaining for the others. On a chart that would be slap in the middle. No surprise then that amidst the yelling from all sides, Mrs May has been looking quite confident this week.

Advice to those worried about Brexit.

It's no use worrying about the effects of Brexit. They will be what they turn out to be depending upon the form Brexit takes, soft, medium, hard- or doesn't take.

A drop in the pound, increases in interest rates? Yes, yes quite likely at least until Britain settles down, accepts whatever has happened, dusts itself down, stops moaning and throws itself with enthusiasm into the new opportunities wherever they are. A lot of energy, enthusiasm and determined leadership will be required. The world will go on whatever happens. Dawn will break on the day after Brexit and we won't be starving , fighting for stocks of pills or suffering gridlock around our ports and airports all summer 2019.. There will be hiccups, eagerly seized upon by swathes of the media. Some things will need quick resolute solutions. Those who actually run the businesses, logistics, border controls, customs and other things which run 24/7/365 will sort it out. Politicians, most of whom are unfamiliar with the mechanics of doing or running anything will be superfluous. No doubt they will make statements though.

In the overall scheme of things Brexit will turn out to be a hiccup. There's far more to worry about than that.  Think about the very real prospect of a government led by Corbyn, McDonnell and comrades from the far left. Old fashioned union power, inflation and high interest rates would return and investors would flee. It would be way beyond any previous British experience of socialism. This would be a government which actually doesn't like large groups of  voters at all. The label "Tory Scum" , didn't come from nowhere. The Corbynistas wouldn't be about soft fuzzy socialism. They would be about the  state spending and taxing like never before.

Against this merry scenario five or ten years of all that and Brexit fades almost into insignificance.Got any savings anyone? Earn more than about £40k a year? Aspirations for yourself, family, future generations?  Think about it.

Twiga is back!

First an apology to our loyal Followers for a long silence. A lot of what's been going on and the commentaries on it have been too irritating to encourage further contributions. Waves of drivel, uninformed and wisdom- free speculation and downright disinformation have broken upon us leading to a reaction of "Wake me when it's over".

That said, with March 2019 not far away and some unsung good things happening now seems the time to renew our musings, head shaking as well as optimism to try to float some different and more balanced perspectives. Obviously this won't see Twiga employed by the BBC but that was never going to happen anyway. 

Nineteen days to go!

Just two and a half weeks now to the UK's General Election. It's nineteen days from today.

Well, mercifully a bit less than that in some ways. he coming week from May 22nd  is on the face of it a normal one,- that means four and a half or five working days followed by a Saturday lull and then the deluge of Sunday papers trying to fill their pages with new insights, or which there are really very few.

That's this week. Though not quite. Half term starts on Friday.That means much of the electorate, -especially the better off segments ,- will be turning away from normal life to go to Speech Day and maybe not bothering so much with the weekend media.

The next week starts on 29th May with a Bank Holiday. Many don't bother to watch the box or more than skim a newspaper. Then the next four days are taken up with, especially for the better off, family trips at home or abroad, Then when they get back on Sunday June 4th there are just three more campaigning days to go. With all this distraction June 8th May have a very clever date to choose for an election if you are a Conservative starting with a big lead in the polls ,want to limit the time really available for its erosion and find a moment when  many will have had a bit of a holiday which tends to lean them towards the status quo.

That leaves the third week,from Monday June 4th as a three day final sprint to the line. Suddenly the 19 days  of assumed voter attention have become a lot fewer.  For some maybe only seven or so.

That being the timeline how's it all going ? The polls all point to a substantial Tory win but are we in for a surprise on the night when the exit poll flashes up at 22.01 with a red splurge and Labour in the lead?  Or a potential majority coalition of who with whom ? The Tories have only got to lose some of the seats gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 and fail to make  the assumed gains in Labour's northern heartlands. Scotland ,where they are led by the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson might help out a bit with a few SNP scalps but Mrs May could still be in trouble..

The Tories's strongest suit is to keep the focus on it being purely and simply about the choice of leader, not Brexit or the domestic issues, especially the NHS. Labour's is the reverse. No surprise therefore that they they are working overtime to keep the spotlight on schools and hospitals and now pensioners and to present Jeremy as a nice harmless sort of guy who's on your side unless at £80k you happen to earn just more than an MP's approximately £ 74,000 salary. Unsurprisingly evil fat cats start just above that line.  The unattractive hard left posse around and behind Corbyn are largely kept out of  sight. It's not sensible to scare the horses. Indeed if voters had the remotest idea of the economic and other mayhem  this bunch might inflict on the nation should they win most would be downright terrified.

 The Labour party is being pretty successful in putting over the soft Jeremy image to the many while to the hardline few and members of the protest industry still majoring on the clenched fist,angry Corbyn the revolutionary as seen at the staged ,bussed in, town hall meetings of the heavies and the cheerless cheerleaders waving placards about the NHS and Tory Scum. Another line being skilfully exploited by the left is that since the polls predict there is no chance of Corbyn becoming PM  it's safe to vote for him as an anti establishment protest and to clip Mrs May's wings a bit even if you really don't want him to win. We've been there before. That's the way that Corbyn was first nominated for the Labour leadership,- achieved with minutes to spare,- and the  Leave camp pulled in more votes than expected  in the Brexit referendum.  In both cases people signed up against  what they really wanted just to give establishments a bit of a wakeup kicking. A Remain majority was believed to be certain in the Brexit referendum so some voters reckoned they could give the establishment a kicking by voting Leave without any risk of that happening. Unfortunately no estimate has been produced ,or at least published, on the number of such tactical votes . (What's happened to real political analysis?) Take away that factor and real preferences may have been 50/50 or a clear Remain majority.That's one reason why Remainers have been looking for some way to trigger a second go at it.

So,,.. for Conservative/May supporters there are some nailbiting "Wish it was all over " days and nights to go. For the Labour/Corbyn camp there's a lot to play for and many of the things they say are coming over as more down to earth and resonating better with the electors than the Tory messages and style. June 9th could still see Britain's first PM to wear one of those funny hats usually decked out with a red star.